Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 19 - February 26

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 19 - February 26

A mixed and turbulent week saw the dollar going in all directions. Where will it go? UK GDP data, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, and other events stand out. These are the nain eventa on forex calendar for this week.

1. UK GDP data: Wednesday, 9:30. Economists forecast a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2016.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
3. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Analysts estimate an increase of 242,000 new claims this week.
5. Philip Lowe speaks: Thursday, 22:30. RBA Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney.

the source

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 19 - February 26

EUR/USD was looking for a new direction as politics continued moving markets. The upcoming week features PMIs and some business surveys.

1. German PPI: Monday, 7:00. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards now.
2. Bundesbank monthly report: Monday, 11:00.
3. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00.
4. PMIs: Tuesday morning: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the whole euro-area, showing the preliminary assessment for February.
5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 21:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think Tank surprised last month with a lower assessment of German business confidence in January.
6. CPI (final): Wednesday, 10:00.
7. LTRO: Wednesday, 10:30.
8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00.
9. German GDP (final): Thursday, 7:00.
10. GfK German Consumer Climate: Thursday, 7:00. A score of 10.3 is estimated now.

the source

U.S. indices have been on a tear for all of February, but as of yesterday price action became unstable with a sharp morning break and afternoon rebound. The Nasdaq 100 put in an engulfing bar while the S&P 500 suffered a smaller set-back. At the time of this writing, we’re headed for a weaker open. Europe is taking it on the chin, with the DAX leading the way lower by about 1.5%, and the S&P futures following suit by heading lower by 10 handles.

With weakness in the near-term setting in, we’re starting to think about how far the S&P could decline before finding potential support. The first line of interest is the Feb ’16 trend-line about 25 handles lower. For now, all we can do is consider weakness as a pullback within an ongoing uptrend, but with volatility having been compressed for a few months, and March, an often-volatile month just ahead, we could be in for a bumpy ride.

S&P 500: Daily

[image]

more...