Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05

Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05

The US dollar was mixed in Trump’s first week in office. Rate decisions in Japan, the US and the UK, GDP data in Canada and the buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday promise a busy week. These are the main events on forex calendar.

1. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in its December meeting amid modest pace of growth. The decision was in line with market forecast.
2. Canadian GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in November.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. A score of 112.6 is on the cards now.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. A gain of 165K private sector jobs is expected for January.
5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. A score of 55 points is likely for January.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
7. US FOMC Rate Statement: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate in December as widely anticipated. Federal funds rate was increased by 25 basis points, to a range of 0.50 to 0.75%. This was the second rate hike in a decade. Economists expect these steps will spur economic growth and inflation while supporting company earnings.
8. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% but warned that higher inflation and slower wage growth will weigh in household budgets in 2017. In addition to the rate statement and the accompanying meeting minutes, the BOE also publishes its quarterly inflation report.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expected claims to reach 247,000. A level of 251K is predicted now.
10. US Non-Farm Payrolls report: Friday, 13:30. In January, 170K are estimated. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.7%.
11. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. A score of 57 points is on the cards.

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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05

EUR/USD made a move to higher ground but found it hard to continue rising. Will it make substantial falls? GDP and inflation figures stand out in a busy week.

1. Spanish Flash GDP: Monday, 7:00. Another growth rate of 0.7% is expected for Q4.
2. German CPI: Monday, data from the states during the morning and the final CPI measure is out at 13:00. After 0.7% in December, a drop of 0.5% is on the cards.
3. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:30. A stronger growth rate of 0.4% is projected.
4. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:00. A bounce is on the cards now: 0.6%.
5. French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45. A drop of 0.5% is forecast.
6. Spanish CPI: Tuesday, 8:00. Another leap to 2.4% is expected.
7. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. A slide of 5K is predicted.
8. CPI: Tuesday, 10:00. Headline inflation is expected to continue rising, reaching 1.5%, while core inflation is expected to stand at 0.9% once again.
9. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. This time, output is predicted to increase by 0.4%.
10. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday morning: 8:!5 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final figure for France at 8:50, final measure for Germany at 8:55 and the final number for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
11. EU Economic Forecasts: Wednesday, 10:00. The European Commission publishes updated economic forecasts twice a year.
12. Spanish Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:00. A rise of 60.2K is estimated.
13. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. Two weeks after the decision which saw Draghi downing the euro with his downside risks, we get a detailed report about what the Governing Council members had in front of their eyes.
14. Services PMIs: Friday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final figure for France at 8:50, final measure for Germany at 8:55 and the final number for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
15. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards.

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