Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27

The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.

1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 16:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg. The ECB has not been clear about its bond-buying program plans. Economists expect the ECB will announce the plan on Dec 8, however Trump’s election win introduced uncertainty about what he will do when he becomes U.S. president on Jan. 20. Analysts believe Draghi will extend its bond-buying stimulus program by six months in the coming ECB meeting.
2. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect durable goods to rise 1.2% in September, while core goods to rise 0.2%.
3. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 241,000 this time.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, in which the Fed left rates unchanged but argued that the case for raising rates has “continued to strengthen”. In the minutes from that meeting, Yellen and her colleagues could provide yet another hint that interest rates will be raised in December.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business climate is expected to register 110.6 in November.
7. UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The second estimate is expected to confirm the first one, but changes are not uncommon.

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