Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27

The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.

1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 16:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg. The ECB has not been clear about its bond-buying program plans. Economists expect the ECB will announce the plan on Dec 8, however Trump’s election win introduced uncertainty about what he will do when he becomes U.S. president on Jan. 20. Analysts believe Draghi will extend its bond-buying stimulus program by six months in the coming ECB meeting.
2. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect durable goods to rise 1.2% in September, while core goods to rise 0.2%.
3. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 241,000 this time.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, in which the Fed left rates unchanged but argued that the case for raising rates has “continued to strengthen”. In the minutes from that meeting, Yellen and her colleagues could provide yet another hint that interest rates will be raised in December.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business climate is expected to register 110.6 in November.
7. UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The second estimate is expected to confirm the first one, but changes are not uncommon.

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EUR/USD continued its deep dive and hit new lows as the dollar rally continued and euro-zone data was mixed. Another public appearance from Draghi and fresh PMIs stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week

1. Draghi talks: Monday, 16:00. The President of the ECB may hint about the highly anticipated December meeting of the Bank.
2. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00.
3. Flash PMIs: Wednesday: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the euro-zone. For the whole euro-zone, manufacturing was ahead at 53.5 and services at 52.8 points, with 53.2 and 53.1 expected now.
4. ECB Financial Stability Review: Wednesday, 9:00. Twice a year, the European Central Bank assesses the stability of the financial sector.
5. Final German GDP: Thursday, 7:00.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. A score of 110.6 is forecast.
7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 12:00. A small rise to 9.7 is on the cards.
8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00. A small improvement to -1.5 is expected.

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