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Weekly Outlook and Trading Forecast

This is a discussion on Weekly Outlook and Trading Forecast within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; US Dollar: Greenback Looks in Trouble Heading into New Year The US Federal Reserve has finally raised interest rates, and ...

          
   
  1. #1
    Senior Member ForeCastle's Avatar
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    Weekly Outlook and Trading Forecast

    US Dollar: Greenback Looks in Trouble Heading into New Year
    The US Federal Reserve has finally raised interest rates, and this in itself should support the US Dollar in 2016. Yet a key factor that may stand in the way of further Dollar gains is straightforward: expectations. The Fed expects it will raise rates four times in 2016, but markets predict only half of that. Whether or not the USD finishes higher will depend on this key theme.

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    International Equities: S&P 500, World Equities at Risk of Major Correction
    Global growth has slowed considerably into the end of 2015, and yet global equity indices remain at or near record peaks. Can 2016 finally produce the significant correction which many have feared? We’ll watch a number of critical fundamental themes going forward, while our technical outlook suggests key assets are ripe for an important turn lower.

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    Gold Price Forecast: Sell-Off May Accelerate as Fed Likely to Hike Rates
    Gold prices traded into fresh multi-year lows as the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in eight years. Yet the immediate reaction following the highly-anticipated was relatively muted. What could continue to drive gold price trends through 2016?

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    Yen Forecast: Fed Rate Hikes and BoJ Action Points to USD/JPY Gains
    The Bank of Japan looks likely to keep its aggressive quantitative easing policies in place through 2016, and this position stands in sharp contrast to the US Federal Reserve’s prospective interest rate hike cycle. Individually this should be enough to drive the USD/JPY higher through the New Year, but these are the key factors which will likely determine overall price trends.

    Weekly Outlook and Trading Forecast-usdjpy-w1-alpari-limited.png


    Oil Price Forecast: No End in Sight for Oil Price Declines
    There appears no end in sight for Crude Oil price declines, and indeed a renewed oil supply war between OPEC and North American producers may exacerbate the supply glut which has driven the major price downtrend. Unless we see a marked shift in global industrial growth, we expect the value of Crude Oil will continue lower through 2016.

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    Weekly Outlook: 2016, January 03 - 10

    Forex Weekly Outlook January 4-8

    2016 begins with a busy calendar: Canadian employment data, US PMIs, Trade Balance, FOMC Meeting Minutes and employment data culminating with the Non-Farm Payrolls. In addition, liquidity is set to return after the holiday season. These are the highlights opening 2016. Join us as we explore these market-movers.

    U.S. consumer confidence edged up to 96.5 from 92.6 in November, beating market forecasts. Current conditions improved from 110.9 to 115.3 and the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November. Overall, consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive. Meanwhile Jobless claims increased 20,000 during the holiday week due to temporary holiday factors. Economists expected a rise of 270,000. Analysts expect a slower pace of job market improvement in 2016 despite the low unemployment rate.


    1. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. This independent report for the Chinese economy has worried investors during 2015, but did recover from the lows. After hitting 48.6 points in November, a rise to 48.9 is on the cards for December, still below the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction.
    2. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. The U.S. manufacturing activity plunged in November to its worst levels since June 2009, when the index of national factory activity declined to 48.6 crossing the 50 point line for the first time since November 2012. The previous reading was 50.5. Economists expected the index to rise to 50.6. The employment section rose to 51.3 from 47.6 in October, new orders fell to 48.9, lowest since August 2012 and the prices paid index fell to 35.5 from 39. A score of 49.1 points is expected now.
    3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. Private sector employment increased by 217,000 jobs in November according to ADP Report. The reading topped market forecast and followed a 196,000 reading in the previous month. This was the strongest gains in the service sector since June. The increase was mainly driven by a rebound in professional/business service jobs. Job growth remains strong and the pace of job creation is twice that needed to absorb growth in the working age population. 193K is expected now.
    4. US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October amid a fall in exports. The trade gap increased 3.4% to $43.9 billion, resulting from a stronger dollar. September’s trade deficit was revised up to $42.5 billion from the previously reported $40.8 billion. Economists had expected an improvement to $40.6 billion. Exports fell 1.4% to $184.1 billion, the lowest level since October 2012. Imports slipped 0.6% to $228.0 billion in October. A deficit of 44 billion is expected.
    5. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The U.S. service sector reflected slower business activity in November. The Institute for Supply Management’s non manufacturing purchasing-managers index fell to 55.9 from 59.1 in October. Economists expected the index to fall to 58.1. However, despite this decline, November’s reading shows the resilience of the domestic services sector. Business activity, new orders and employment components fell by more than 4 points, but still posted readings above 55.
    6. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the historic rate hike decision. The statement showed a unanimous vote, but perhaps the wider array of members wasn’t in full agreement. It will be important to note the sentiment towards further rate hikes in 2016. Currently, 4 hikes are foreseen according to the dot plot, while markets expect far less activity. The Fed decided to put an emphasis on inflation, and we will also learn how worried they were at the time.
    7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 287,000. The increase was larger than the 274,000 initially expected. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average increased by 4,500 claims to 272,500. Continuing jobless claims edged up by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2,198,000. A drop to 271K is predicted now.
    8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian economy shed nearly 36,000 jobs in November after a massive part-time workers hired for the October federal election were dismissed. The job losses, were four times larger than the 10,000 expected raising the unemployment rate to 7.1%, from 7% in October. While the economy lost 72,000 part time workers, it also gained 36,000 full-time employees, suggesting the picture is not as bad as it looks. A gain of 10.4K jobs and steady unemployment rate at 7.1% are predicted now.
    9. US Non-Farm Employment Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. The last NFP report showed a 211,000 jobs gain in November, beating forecasts for a 201,000 increase, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 5%. The solid job gain was exactly what the Fed needed to make the call to raise rates on their December meeting. Wages increased 2.3% year-over-year in November a bit lower than the 2.5% rise posted in October showing a growth trend. A gain of 202K jobs is predicted with a steady unemployment rate of 5%. Wages are expected to rise 0.2% m/m once again. While no hike is expected in the January meeting, this feeds into the March decision.



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    Forex News Trading Strategy For The 4th - 8th of January

    Full list of high-impact events taking place this week:

    ---------------------------
    Monday 4th
    ---------------------------

    1:45am GMT - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
    9:30am GMT - UK Manufacturing PMI
    3:00pm GMT - ISM Manufacturing PMI

    ---------------------------
    Tuesday 5th
    ---------------------------

    9:30am GMT - UK Construction PMI.
    Tentative - GDT Price Index.

    ---------------------------
    Wednesday 6th
    ---------------------------

    9:30am GMT - UK Services PMI
    1:15pm GMT - US Non-Farm Employment Change
    1:30pm GMT - Canadian Trade Balance
    1:30pm GMT - US Trade Balance
    3:00pm GMT - US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
    7:00pm GMT - FOMC Meeting Minutes

    ---------------------------
    Thursday 7th
    ---------------------------

    12:30am GMT - Australian Building Approvals and Trade Balance
    1:25am GMT - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
    1:30pm GMT - US Unemployment Claims

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    Friday 8th
    ---------------------------

    12:00am GMT - Australian Retail Sales
    1:30pm GMT - Canadian Building Permits, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
    1:30pm GMT - Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

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    Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Decision and Brexit

    Euro Forecast: Focus for EURGBP, EURUSD Turns to BOE, Fed Meetings
    With Euro-area March PMI reports due on Friday, traders’ attention for most of the week will be the latest Brexit developments, the BOE rate decision, and the Fed meeting.

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    Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Slide Again If RBA Speakers Stay Dovish
    The Australian Dollar may well face renewed pressure if the week's central bank speeches again highlight the utility of a weaker currency. Stronger data may help the bulls’ cause though.

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    Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Price Outlook Clouded by OPEC Meeting, Fed Rate Decision
    The dominant uptrend in crude oil prices face a cloudy week ahead. Potential gains on the weekend OPEC+ joint meeting may be offset by US Dollar strength on the Fed rate decision.

    British Pound Forecast: Brexit Meaningful Vote - Third Time Lucky?
    Brexit will continue to dominate the domestic scene, putting the latest Bank of England policy decisions in the shade. Meaningful Vote 3 is expected to be voted down again, leaving PM May increasingly isolated.

    US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rate Outlook Hinges on FOMC Forward-Guidance
    The EUR/USD rebound following the ECB meeting appears to have stalled ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision, with the Fed slated to unveil its updated forecasts.

    Gold Forecast: Gold Price Forecast: Where Will XAUUSD Breakout Next?
    While the spot gold price chart shows consolidation at its current level, looming fundamental drivers could ignite the next move in XAUUSD.

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    Equities Forecast: Dow Jones, S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast
    With the major equity indices simultaneously testing technical resistance, catalysts will be found from fundamental developments in the week ahead.

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    Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Recession and Brexit Worries

    Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil May be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines
    Crude oil prices remain supported by supply cuts and trade deal hopes even as the economic data have proven disappointing. That support could wane a little this week.

    British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rate Threatens Bull Trend Ahead of Brexit Deadline
    The British Pound may face a more bearish fate ahead of the Brexit deadline in April as the GBP/USD exchange rate threatens the upward trend from late last year.

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    US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Succumbs to Potent Headwinds
    The US Dollar may rise, spurned on by haven-seeking capital flows as risk appetite finally succumbs to a broad assortment of potent headwinds.

    Gold Forecast – Gold Price Outlook Bearish as USD May Rise on Soft Econ Data, RBA
    Gold prices could be weighed down if the US Dollar rises in risk aversion on soft economic data. Other hazards for the precious metal include a more dovish RBA and Brexit updates.

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    Equities Forecast – Dow Jones, FTSE 100, DAX 30 and ASX 200 Fundamental Forecast
    The Dow Jones will look to a slew of economic data out of the United States while the FTSE and DAX await Brexit clarification. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 awaits a rate decision from the RBA.

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