Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has risen in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. Apparently, when oil overrides the usual November weakness, the momentum carries through into the next month. When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December. In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. I conclude that oil will rise next month but only moderately.

The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 level by the end of January.

more...

Succumbing to market pressure, crude producers' group OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC allies intervened to deepen their ongoing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by another 500,000 bpd on Friday (December 6) following the conclusion of their meeting of ministers in Vienna, Austria. In a surprise for the market, OPEC revealed that bulk of the burden will largely fall on Saudi Arabia's shoulders, with the kingdom announcing it would cut "voluntarily" by 400,000 bpd. That marks an increase of 167,000 bpd and would keep Riyadh's headline production at 9.744 million bpd. Many OPEC members, often accused of non-compliance with the promised cuts, came out to say they would be pitching in.

For now though, oil benchmarks have responded positively. At 17:37 GMT on Friday, the Brent front-month contract was up +1.20% or 76 cents to $64.15 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was trading 1.01% or 59 cents higher at $59.02 per barrel.

more...

Oil has rallied and will likely move to the $64-$65 level by the end of January.

Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has increased in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. (When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December.)

more...

From person to person the trading needs and styles differ. There is no need to trade on daily basis, but as per your trading style you can choose your trading schedule. To spend a profitable trading life, it is very necessary to choose your trading style according to your capability. As I choose the short-term trading styles as a student and my broker help me in every possible way to make the scalping profitable.

The S&P 500 energy sector (XLE -10.7%) is today's worst performer, bringing its week-to-date losses to 29% and year-to-date losses above 50%.

The basis for today's sharp selloff remains much the same as in recent sessions: concerns about potential defaults for highly leveraged companies, expectations for a coronavirus-led economic growth slowdown or downturn that will reduce demand for oil, plunging oil prices (WTI -6.1% to $30.95/bbl; Brent -8.2% to $32.83/bbl) which are a symptom of the growth concerns and the Saudi-Russia price war, a likely wave of dividend cuts, tax-loss selling activity, etc.

more..

Day sees flurry of outlook revisions on several oil and gas sector players as industry picture worsens on simultaneous oversupply and demand crises.

more...

In a world shifting towards virtual meetings, OPEC and their allies are joining the movement in hosting a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss production cuts.

Oil prices put in a historically strong move this week, bouncing by as much as 50% on news that OPEC and their allies have agreed to discuss moderating production in the effort of buoying prices.

Previously, Oil prices were in a hard sell-off both supply and demand concerns were pushing prices lower. The demand side of the equation still looks meager; but the supply part of the equation may get some help in the week ahead.

more..

Oil prices have rallied since last Thursday in the hope of a supply cut from the OPEC+. The cartel assured the market on Friday that it would hold a meeting on Monday, but it was pushed till Thursday which dampened the oil prices.

more...

Crude failed to react the way Opec members probably anticipated.

It may be the case that the OPEC masterminds are missing how little demand is present right now for their favorite product. Note also how pleasing it is to see photos of Los Angeles without fossil fuel-induced smog. Also, Beijing and other formerly polluted major cities. What will be the ultimate effect on populations who notice the difference, post-pandemic?

more...

The steep fall in price is due to the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage given that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices will drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And, here is why.

more...