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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

This is a discussion on Crude Oil Technical Analysis within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Crude Oil Price Chart Outlook: Trade War Selloff Eyes Support Crude oil prices sank over 1.5% this past week in ...

      
   
  1. #81
    Senior Member TechnoMeter's Avatar
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    Crude Oil prices turned sharply lower

    Crude Oil Price Chart Outlook: Trade War Selloff Eyes Support
    Crude oil prices sank over 1.5% this past week in choppy trading. I noted early last Tuesday that crude oil prices were showing signs of weakness as volatility climbed amid lingering US-China trade war uncertainty as Jackson Hole loomed. Surely enough, the expectation came to fruition as bearish fundamentals aligned with a technical backdrop that pointed to the possibility of sustained selling pressure.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Evidence of waning bullish prospects for crude oil prices from a technical standpoint is also suggested by the wilting RSI as the indicator dipped back below 50 and looks to continue its overarching trend lower since April. Moreover, the struggle to reclaim the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages may keep a lid on any rebound attempt.


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  2. #82
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    Oil To Rise Into December-January

    Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has risen in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. Apparently, when oil overrides the usual November weakness, the momentum carries through into the next month. When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December. In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. I conclude that oil will rise next month but only moderately.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February. The weekly cycle is falling in December offsetting some of the monthly cycle strength, so the result is likely to be a volatile trading range followed by a January-February rally. The combination of increasing seasonal strength and rising cycles will lift prices as December concludes. Oil will likely be at the $64-$65 level by the end of January.

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  3. #83
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    OPEC+ Surprises Oil Market With Bullish Trend To Be Started

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Succumbing to market pressure, crude producers' group OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC allies intervened to deepen their ongoing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by another 500,000 bpd on Friday (December 6) following the conclusion of their meeting of ministers in Vienna, Austria. In a surprise for the market, OPEC revealed that bulk of the burden will largely fall on Saudi Arabia's shoulders, with the kingdom announcing it would cut "voluntarily" by 400,000 bpd. That marks an increase of 167,000 bpd and would keep Riyadh's headline production at 9.744 million bpd. Many OPEC members, often accused of non-compliance with the promised cuts, came out to say they would be pitching in.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-wticrude-w1-fx-choice-limited.png


    For now though, oil benchmarks have responded positively. At 17:37 GMT on Friday, the Brent front-month contract was up +1.20% or 76 cents to $64.15 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was trading 1.01% or 59 cents higher at $59.02 per barrel.

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  4. #84
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    Oil Is Moving Higher

    Oil has rallied and will likely move to the $64-$65 level by the end of January.

    Crude Oil Technical Analysis-brentcrud-d1-fx-choice-limited.png


    Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has increased in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. (When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December.)

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