Premium5 468x60 forex
Results 1 to 4 of 4

Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02

This is a discussion on Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02 within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Credit Agricole - Where To Sell Bounces In the very short-term further position-squaring related upside risk cannot be excluded as ...

          
   
  1. #1
    Senior Member 1Finance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,519
    Blog Entries
    340

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02

    Credit Agricole - Where To Sell Bounces

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02-alpha-agence-credit-agricole.jpg

    • In the very short-term further position-squaring related upside risk cannot be excluded as tighter monetary conditions as driven by the Fed and intact uncertainty as related to China may keep risk sentiment unstable. Most recent China PMI releases keep investors’ growth expectations strongly muted.
    • However, from a broader angle, we expect risk sentiment to stabilize anew. This is mainly due to the notion that further improving growth prospects should ultimately compensate for rising Fed rate expectations.
    • Elsewhere, a further appreciating EUR would increase downside risks to inflation and that may trigger a more aggressive rhetoric by ECB members.
    • As a result to the above outlined conditions we remain in favour of selling EUR rallies towards 1.1100- 1200.



    the source
    Trading blogs || My blog

  2. #2
    Senior Member 1Finance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    1,519
    Blog Entries
    340

    Forex Weekly Outlook July 27-31

    Last week US jobless claims continued to surprise with a 26,000 fall in the number of new claims, reaching a seasonally adjusted 255,000. This release hit the lowest level since November 1973, indicating the US labor market continues to expand with growing number of jobs and improved employment conditions. Economists expected claims to reach 279,000 this week. The positive trend in the job market together with promising housing data suggest the Fed will raise rates very soon.

    1. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business climate index fell to 107.4 points in June from 108.5 points the prior month. The bigger than expected drop suggests that German businesses were worried about the debt crisis in Greece and its possible effect on Eurozone’s locomotive. The six month outlook measure also declined to 102 from 103.Analysts and investors were also concerned about the Greek situation. Business sentiment is expected to rise in July to 107.6.
    2. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. The U.S. manufacturing sector lost momentum in May, new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods declined 1.8%, to $228.9 billion after April’s revised drop of 1.0%. Economists expected a smaller decline of 0.6% in orders. However, purchases of manufactured goods, excluding the volatile transportation sector, edged up 0.5% to $157.2 billion in May, following a 0.2% decline in April, while forecasted to rise 0.6%. Nevertheless, economists believe data is stabilizing, choosing to ignore the headline figure due to volatility in the transportation sector. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods expected to pick up by 3.2% in June, while Core orders forecasted to rise by 0.4%.
    3. UK GDP: Tuesday, 8:30. The UK’s economic recovery softened in the first quarter of 2014 with GDP growth of 0.3%, according to a preliminary estimate. One of the weak points is the construction sector where output fell for the second consecutive quarter. According to The Office for National Statistics first quarter growth was the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2012. The annual rate of GDP growth declined to 2.4% from the 2.8% measured in the final quarter of 2014. The service sector which accounts for 75% of all goods and services in the economy, edged up 0.5% following 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The first estimate of growth for the second quarter is 0.7%.
    4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence strengthened in June, rising to 101.4 from 94.6 in May, suggesting the recent job gain boosted economic activity. On a yearly base consumer confidence edged up 17.4% from a year ago. Current conditions and the labor market index saw the biggest rise. Continued improvement in job market conditions and bigger wages increased optimism and consumer spending. Economists expect over 2% growth in the second quarter. Consumer confidence is expected to reach 100.1 this time.
    5. US FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 18:00 The Fed’s statement from June 17 showed the economy is growing mildly after the winter plunge and is expected to increase its readiness for an interest rate hike by the end of the year. The FOMC forecasts a yearly growth of over 2%. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that the rate decision was still dependent on more decisive evidence from the labor market and stronger inflation. Economists do not forecast a rate hike just yet.
    6. US GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP, released April 29, showed the economy expanded a mere 0.2% in the first three months of 2015, well below the 1% increase forecasted by analysts. Consumer demand rose just 1.8%, less than the 2% that was expected by economists lower than initially estimated. Exports showed negative contribution as well as foreign investments, while imports increased. Analysts forecast a rebound in the second quarter with a growth estimate of over 2%. The advance release of GDP forecast for Q2 is expected to be 2.5%.
    7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to 255,000, the lowest level in more than 41-1/2 years. The sharp contraction in claims indicates the US labor market continued to strengthen in July. Job creation and stronger housing market suggest the Fed will raise rates in the near future. The four-week moving average of claims fell 4,000 to 278,500 last week. The number of claims is expected to reach 264,000 this week.
    8. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s economy contracted 0.1% in April, posting the fourth consecutive month of negative growth. Economists forecasted a 0.1% growth in April. The continuous contraction raises concerns that Canada will be in recession this year. Canada’s economy shrank at annual pace of 0.6% in the first quarter, and April’s decline suggests a negative reading is probable for the second quarter. The mining, oil and gas sector shrank 2.6, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. Retail sales declined 0.2%, down for the third straight month. Manufacturing declined 0.2% declining for the fourth consecutive month. GDP is expected to remain flat in May.



    the source
    Trading blogs || My blog

  3. #3
    Senior Member ForeCastle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,070
    Blog Entries
    223

    Weekly Trading Forecast: Rate Decisions and GDP Figures to Ignite Volatility

    US Dollar Impasse Will be Broken by FOMC Meeting and GDP Update
    How confident is the FOMC about its outlook for interest rates? Despite their rhetoric and clear predictions from the June forecasts, the market remains skeptical that that will be able to deliver a rate hike this year – much less two.

    Gold Plummets for 5th Consecutive Week – Price at Support Ahead of Fed[/URL]
    Gold prices plummeted for a fifth consecutive week with the precious metal down nearly 4.3% to trade at 1085 ahead of the New York close on Friday.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02-xauusd-w1-alpari-limited.png

    Bearish AUD/USD Outlook to Gather Pace on RBA/Fed Policy Divergence[/URL]
    AUD/USD slipped to a fresh 2015 low (.7259) as Australia faces a greater risk of losing its AAA credit-rating. Here’s what to watch.

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02-audusd-w1-alpari-limited.png

    Bearish Pound Enters a Critical 10 Days – Can it Continue Higher?[/URL]
    A big week of both UK and US economic event risk nonetheless points to bigger GBP/USD moves in the days ahead

    Weekly Outlook: 2015, July 26 - August 02-gbpusd-w1-alpari-limited.png


    more...
    Premium Trading Forum: subscription || The Forex Guide to Fundamentals Fundamentals
    Trading blogs || My blog

  4. #4
    Senior Member ArticleMan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    265
    Blog Entries
    153

    Credit Agricole - 'The Fed in our view is unlikely to pre-commit to a September rate hike at today’s meeting'

    • "The Fed in our view is unlikely to pre-commit to a September rate hike at today’s meeting. Instead, it is more likely to remain data dependent, noting a cautiously upbeat assessment of progress on its dual mandate. Indeed, its statement will likely reflect the strength of the labour market, indicating the absorption of slack and the tentative signs of wage pressure.
    • Any shift in the FOMC’s statement will likely drive the FX market’s response.
    • The biggest losers will likely remain commodity currencies and those with large external imbalances.
    • We think any pullback will be short-lived, especially given that markets still have plenty of data to digests before the September meeting."

    the source
    Stock Market || Forex Articles
    Trading blogs || My blog

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •