Weekly Outlook: 2015, March 22 - 29

The gold markets as you can see initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support at the 1140 level to turn things back around and break out to the upside. Now that we have cleared the 1180 level, we feel that this market will more than likely head to the $1200 level. However, we recognize that you will have to be able to deal with quite a bit of volatility. Regardless though, we have no interest in selling for the longer-term until we break down below the 1140 level, which is something that we haven’t done quite yet.



the source

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but turned back around to fall the way down to the hundred and 20 level. That being the case, the market looks as if it is going to try to find support in this general vicinity, so having said that we are more than willing to buy supportive candles in this area but do not have them yet. We believe that the Bank of Japan will continue to work against the value of the Yen, so it’s only a matter of time before we bounce.



the source

The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the session on Friday, closing above the 1.08 level. It looks like we are heading back to the 1.10 level given enough time, but we also recognize that this is a market that is essentially stuck in a consolidative area. We are more than willing to sell this market on signs of resistance near the 1.10 level, or any type of resistive candle between here and there. We have no interest in buying the Euro there are far too many reasons to avoid it.



the source

The dollar was sharply lower against the other major currencies on Friday, capping its worst weekly performance against the euro in three years and posting the largest weekly decline against the yen and the Swiss franc in two months amid doubts over how quickly U.S. interest rates will rise.

The sharp drop in the dollar came about amid uncertainty over the path of U.S. monetary policy after the Federal Reserve downgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation and lowered its interest rate projections on Wednesday.

The Fed statement dampened expectations for a mid-year rate hike, prompting investors to exit positions which would benefit from a strong dollar.

EUR/USD was up 1.52% to 1.0820 late Friday. For the week, the common currency gained 3.2%, the largest increase since October 2011.

USD/JPY was down 0.64% to 120.03 in late trade, ending the week with losses of 1.06%. USD/CHF dropped 1.54% to 0.9747, for a weekly loss of 3.16%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 2.53%, posting the biggest weekly loss since October 2011.

The commodity-exposed currencies also strengthened against the greenback on Friday. AUD/USD surged 1.63% to 0.7774, NZD/USD jumped 2.04% to 0.7565 and USD/CAD lost 1.3% to trade at 1.2551.

Despite the past week’s reversal the dollar looks likely to continue to strengthen, with the Fed still expected to raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The euro has fallen around 10% against the dollar so far this year and the European Central Bank’s trillion-euro quantitative easing program, which launched earlier this month, is set to continue to act as a drag on the single currency.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned last week that the stronger dollar was pushing down inflation.
Survey data on euro zone private sector activity, due for release on Tuesday, will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 23

• The U.K. is to release private sector data on industrial order expectations.
• The U.S. is to release a report on existing home sales.

Tuesday, March 24

• China is to release the preliminary reading of the HSBC (LONDON:HSBA) manufacturing index.
• The euro zone is to produce survey data on private sector activity, while Germany and France will also publish what will be closely watched individual reports.
• Both the U.K. and the U.S. are to release reports on consumer inflation. The U.S. is also to release data on new home sales.
• Later in the trading day New Zealand is to report on the trade balance.

Wednesday, March 25

• In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
• The U.K. is to release private sector reports on mortgage approvals and retail sales.
• The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders.

Thursday, March 26

• Research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate.
• The euro area is to release data on private lending and M3 money supply.
• The U.K. is to produce data on retail sales.
• Later in the day, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

Friday, March 27

• Japan is to release a string of economic reports, including data on household spending, inflation, unemployment and retail sales.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with final data on fourth quarter economic growth and the revised reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

the source

The dollar fell on Friday, to post its largest weekly loss against the yen in two months amid a selloff sparked by uncertainty over the future path of U.S. monetary policy.

USD/JPY was down 0.64% to 120.03 in late trade, to end the week with losses of 1.06%.

The sharp drop in the dollar came about amid doubts over how soon quickly U.S. interest rates will rise after the Federal Reserve downgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation and lowered its interest rate projections on Wednesday.

The Fed statement dampened expectations for a mid-year rate hike, prompting investors to exit positions which would benefit from a strong dollar.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 2.53%, posting the biggest weekly decline since October 2011.

Despite the past week’s reversal the dollar looks likely to continue to strengthen, with the Fed still expected to raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Bank of Japan expanded it stimulus program in late October amid concerns that falling oil prices could lower the inflation outlook.

The euro has fallen around 10% against the dollar so far this year and the European Central Bank’s trillion-euro quantitative easing program, which launched earlier this month, is set to continue to act as a drag on the single currency.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned last week that the stronger dollar was pushing down inflation. Wednesday’s data on durable goods orders will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 23

• The U.S. is to release a report on existing home sales.

Tuesday, March 24

• The U.S. is to release data on consumer price inflation and new home sales.

Wednesday, March 25

• The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders.

Friday, March 27

• Japan is to release a string of economic reports, including data on household spending, inflation, unemployment and retail sales.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with final data on fourth quarter economic growth and the revised reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

the source

Gold rallied to a two-week high on Friday, as the U.S. dollar sold off after the Federal Reserve projected a slower pace of rate hikes following its policy meeting earlier in the week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery hit a daily peak of $1,187.40 a troy ounce, the most since March 6, before ending at $1,184.60 by close of trade, up $15.60, or 1.33% for the day.

On the week, gold jumped $26.70, or 2.79%, the biggest weekly gain since early January. Futures were likely to find support at $1,141.60, the low from March 17, and resistance at $1,200.00, the high from March 6.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, tumbled 1.4% on Friday to end at 98.05, moving further away from a 12-year high of 100.78 hit on March 13.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

The dollar's losses came after the Federal Reserve downgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation and lowered its interest rate projections, prompting investors to push back expectations on the timing and pace of future rate increases.

A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.

Gold fell to a four-month low of $1,141.60 on Wednesday amid concerns that the Fed will start raising rates as early as in June.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery surged 76.9 cents, or 4.77%, on Friday to settle at $16.88 a troy ounce by close of trade, the highest level since February 26.

For the week, the May silver futures contract soared $1.25, or 8.96%, the first weekly gain in three weeks.

Also in metals trading, copper for May delivery rallied 10.1 cents, or 3.8%, on Friday to end at $2.761 a pound. Prices touched an intraday high of $2.774, the most since January 9.

Comex copper rose 9.8 cents, or 3.68%, on the week, amid speculation demand for the industrial metal will increase due to accommodative central bank policies in the U.S., Europe and China.

Meanwhile, the euro rallied above the $1.08-level against the greenback, supported by fresh hopes Greece will secure the additional bailout funds needed to avoid bankruptcy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday that financial aid payments to Greece could begin in tranches if the country's list of reforms was approved by its international lenders.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned last week that the stronger dollar was pushing down consumer prices.

Monday, March 23

• The U.S. is to release a report on existing home sales.

Tuesday, March 24

• China is to release the preliminary reading of the HSBC (LONDON:HSBA) manufacturing index.
• The euro zone is to produce survey data on private sector activity, while Germany and France will also publish what will be closely watched individual reports.
• The U.S. is to release a report on consumer inflation as well as data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 25

• In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
• The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders.

Thursday, March 26

• The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 27

• The U.S. is to round up the week with final data on fourth quarter economic growth and the revised reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

the source

The euro was sharply higher against the dollar on Friday, notching up its largest weekly gain against the greenback in almost three years as doubts over the path of U.S. monetary policy pressured the dollar lower.

EUR/USD was up 1.52% to 1.0820 late Friday. For the week, the common currency gained 3.2%, the largest increase since October 2011.

The sharp drop in the dollar came about amid uncertainty over the path of U.S. monetary policy after the Federal Reserve downgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation and lowered its interest rate projections on Wednesday.

The Fed statement dampened expectations for a mid-year rate hike, prompting investors to exit positions which would benefit from a strong dollar, sparking volatility in the foreign exchange market.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 2.53%, posting the biggest weekly decline since October 2011.

Despite the past week’s reversal the dollar looks likely to continue to strengthen, with the Fed still expected to raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The euro has fallen around 10% against the dollar so far this year and the European Central Bank’s trillion-euro quantitative easing program, which launched earlier this month, is set to continue to act as a drag on the single currency.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report after Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned last week that the stronger dollar was pushing down inflation.

Survey data on euro zone private sector activity, due for release on Tuesday, will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 23

• The U.S. is to release a report on existing home sales.

Tuesday, March 24

• The euro zone is to produce survey data on private sector activity, while Germany and France will also publish what will be closely watched individual reports.
• The U.S. is to release data on consumer price inflation and new home sales.

Wednesday, March 25

• In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
• The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders.

Thursday, March 26

• Research group Gfk is to publish a report on German consumer climate.
• The euro area is to release data on private lending and M3 money supply.

Friday, March 27

• The U.S. is to round up the week with final data on fourth quarter economic growth and the revised reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

the source