Weekly Outlook: 2015, February 15 - 22

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling on a slightly positive candle. We are still below the 1.15 level however, and that of course shows that we are still very soft in general. The Euro continues to be a currency that people shun, as the US dollar is without a doubt one of the most favored currencies in the world. We don’t really have any resistive candles to start selling, and believe that this is more or less going to be a short-term trader’s type of market.



the source

The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday, as concerns over the Greek debt crisis continued to weigh, but stronger-than-expected German growth figures lent support. EUR/USD dipped 0.10% to 1.1391 in late trade, but the pair ended the week up 0.73%, its third consecutively weekly gain.

The euro found support after data on Friday showed that Germany’s economy, the euro zones largest, grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter, more than double the 0.3% forecast by economists.

The euro zone economy expanded by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in the three months to December, but Greece’s economy contracted 0.2% in the same period.

Meanwhile, officials from Greece and the European Union were due to hold fresh talks on Monday after talks on a new debt deal last week ended without an agreement.

Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.

Sentiment on the dollar was hit after data showing U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.

The weak data prompted investors to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve and to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 94.24 late Friday and ended the week down 0.5%.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates. Friday’s data on euro zone private sector activity will also be closely watched.

Monday, February 16

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 17

• In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.
• The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a private sector survey of home builders.

Wednesday, February 18

• The U.S. is to release a string of economic reports, including data on producer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Thursday, February 19

• The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.
• The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 20

• The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

the source

The pound rose to fresh six week highs against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday after data showing U.S consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated this month.

GBP/USD hit highs of 1.5422, the most since January 2 and was last at 1.5394. For the week, the pair gained 1.44%.

The greenback slid after the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.

The weak data prompted investors to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve and to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned after the Bank of England played down the threat of deflation in its quarterly inflation report on Thursday, despite warning that inflation would likely fall below zero in the first half of the year.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said there was no threat of persistent deflation as the decline in inflation was largely due to falling petrol, food and energy prices.

In a change to its forward guidance, the bank also said it would now consider cutting interest rates below 0.5% if inflation dipped more deeply into negative territory than expected.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates.

Tuesday’s U.K. inflation report and Wednesday’s employment data will also be closely watched.

Monday, February 16

• Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 17

• The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.
• The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a private sector survey of home builders.

Wednesday, February 18

• The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report, which includes a look at the unemployment rate, the change in the number of people employed and average earnings. At the same time, the BoE is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.
• The U.S. is to release a string of economic reports, including data on producer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Thursday, February 19

• The U.K. is to produce private sector data on industrial order expectations.
• The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 20

• The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, as well as a report on public sector borrowing.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

the source