Weekly Outlook: 2014, November 09 - 16

GBP/USD forecast for the week of November 10, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but did find a bit of a supportive area in the 1.58 handle. That being the case, we could get a little bit of a bounce here as we could continue to go back and forth around the 1.60 handle overall. If we break down below the 1.58 level though we feel that this market will more than likely head to the 1.55 handle given enough time. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market until we get above the 1.62 handle, something that doesn’t look very likely at the moment.

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 10, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, and even fell below the 1.24 level at one point during the five sessions. The candle is essentially neutral though, so therefore we don’t really have anything to glean from it other than that the market continues to show relatively soft behavior. We believe that we will make a return trip to the 1.2050 level eventually, so we are selling rallies and selling a break of the lows of the candle at this point in time.

Forex - Weekly outlook: November 10 - 14

The dollar fell against the other major currencies on Friday after the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell short of economists’ expectations but still showed solid jobs growth, prompting investors to book profits on the greenback.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in October, missing expectations for jobs growth of 231,000.

September’s figure was revised up to 256,000 from a previously reported 248,000 and August’s figure was also revised up to 203,000 from 180,000 pointing to underlying strength in the labor market.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh six-year low of 5.8% from 5.9% in September.

The data prompted investors to sell the dollar to lock in gains following its recent rally, but the data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates ahead of its other major peers.

EUR/USD initially touched a fresh 26-month low of 1.2358 following the release of the data, before rising 0.67% to 1.2454 in late trade. For the week, the pair was still down 0.38%.

The single currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated its pledge on Thursday to implement further stimulus measures if needed to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

USD/JPY was down 0.56% to 114.58 in late trade on Friday, pulling back from the seven year highs of 115.58 struck earlier in the session. The pair still ended the week with gains of 1.56% as the Bank of Japan’s surprise stimulus move on October 31 continued to weigh on the yen.

The pound also pushed higher against the dollar on Friday, with GBP/USD rising 0.26% to 1.5872, after falling to 14-month lows of 1.5791 earlier in the session.

The Canadian dollar was also higher after data on Friday showed that the country’s economy added 43,100 jobs last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 5,000. The Canadian unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a six year low of 6.5% from 6.8%.

USD/CAD was down 0.84% to 1.1327 late Friday, paring the week’s gains to 0.35%.

The Canadian dollar fell to more than five year lows against the greenback earlier in the week as steep falls in oil prices pressured the commodity exposed currency lower.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s report on third quarter growth from the euro zone, as well as the latest retail sales figures from the U.S. Thursday’s inflation report from the Bank of England will also be in focus.

Monday, November 10

• China is to release data on producer and consumer price inflation.
• Australia is to publish a report on home loans.
• Later in the day, Canada is to publish data on housing starts.

Tuesday, November 11

• Japan is to publish data on the current account.
• Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence, as well as official data on house price inflation.
• Later Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to publish its financial stability report, and Governor Graeme Wheeler is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

Wednesday, November 12

• Australia is to release a private sector report on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on the wage price index.
• Japan is to publish data on tertiary industry activity.
• The U.K. is to release data on the change in the number of people employed, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
• Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to publish its quarterly inflation report and Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.
• The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.

Thursday, November 13

• Japan is to release data on core machinery orders.
• Australia is to publish private sector data on inflation expectations.
• China is to produce data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.
• Switzerland is to report on producer price inflation.
• Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 14

• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on third quarter gross domestic product, while Germany, France and Italy are also to release individual reports. The euro area is also to release revised data on consumer price inflation.
• Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales and import prices as well as preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 10 - 14

The U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar on Friday after stronger than expected Canadian employment data, while a softer than expected U.S. jobs report prompted profit taking in the greenback.

USDCAD was down 0.84% to 1.1327 late Friday, paring the week’s gains to 0.35%.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in October, missing expectations for jobs growth of 231,000.

September’s figure was revised up to 256,000 from a previously reported 248,000 and August’s figure was also revised up to 203,000 from 180,000 pointing to underlying strength in the labor market.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh six-year low of 5.8% from 5.9% in September.

The data prompted investors to sell the dollar to lock in gains following its recent rally but the data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates ahead of its other major peers.

The Canadian dollar received an additional boost after official data showed that the country’s economy added 43,100 jobs last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 5,000.

The Canadian unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a six year low of 6.5% from 6.8%.

The U.S. dollar rose to more than five year highs against the loonie earlier in the week as steep falls in oil prices pressured the commodity exposed Canadian dollar lower.

Oil prices have been hit by speculation that rising global supplies will be more than enough to meet slowing demand.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s reports on U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence, while Canada has no major economic releases scheduled.

Monday, November 10

• Canada is to publish data on housing starts.

Thursday, November 13

• Canada is to release a report on new house price inflation.
• The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 14

• Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales and import prices as well as preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.