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China’s Service Sector Picks Up Demand In September, Employment Declines



China’s service sector rose at the quickest pace in July quarter due to pick-up in demand according to the Reuter survey on Monday despite weaker sentiment because of lesser jobs over two years expansions amid higher cost pressure affecting profit margins.

The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) grew to 53.1 in September from 51.5 the month earlier but still above the 50 mark, separating contraction from growth.

Faster progress implies its forward direction amid escalating trade row in the US.

Moreover, the official measurement of the non-manufacturing sector in the previous months published on the last day of September also shows continuous growth that was boosted by construction with government’s fiscal easing gaining demand.

The positive survey was driven by higher new business orders while the sub-index increased at the fastest rate in three months resulting to 52.4 from 51.7 in August.

China is relying more on services, especially high value-added services in finance and technology to lessen its dependence on heavy industry and investment, as to what they have been doing in the past years. At the same time, policymakers tried to kick up the pace of project approvals resulting to better infrastructure investment growth.

The progress of services sector would lessen the impact of US tariffs on China’s manufacturing sector. Yet, factory activity slowed in September after 15 months of expansion in the background of declining export orders in over two years based on a separate Caixin survey last week.

The services sector, constituting more than half of the economy in the first 6 months of the year, rose by 7.6 percent than a year earlier, exceeding the overall GDP growth of 6.8 percent.

The published rate of Caixin’s composite manufacturing and services PMI on Monday slightly grew to 52.1 in September from 52.0 the month earlier.

Nonetheless, despite positive growth in the services sector eased worries on Chinese policymakers, a sudden drop in employment in the sector seems to come out as an emerging stress.

Eurozone Investor Morale Dropped in October Due to Italy Fiscal Concerns



Investor’s confidence in the eurozone dropped more than the forecast in October based on the survey on Monday, amid worries on Italy’s fiscal policies and stricter car compliance, especially emission rules giving a big impact.

The Sentix index for the eurozone dropped to 11.4 from 12 points in September while the Reuters forecast suggests a drop to 11.7. Meanwhile, the sub-index measuring expectation grew slightly to -8.3 from -8.8 as it drops down to 33 from 35, reaching its lowest since April 2017.

The automobile sector in Germany, as well as the future fiscal policy of the Italian government, had a big impact on the slight decline of the index, according to the managing director of Sentix, Manfred Huebner.

Italy was also part of the concern by investors as the European Commission intends to bring the planned deficit lower, with the EU rules in mind.

Another index measuring investor morales in Germany showed an increase in spite of increasing pressure in the large automotive sector to remunerate for older diesel cars. Stability concern on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government with the coalition to their allies and center-left social democrats also has had an influence on this besides contentious argument over immigration and spy-related scandal.

Nevertheless, the German economic data remains steadfast despite the worrisome discussion on the car industry and repute of the governing coalition stability, Huebner added.

The economy may have been “cooling down” but a recession is still not on the table.

China’s Exports Slowed down in September



China’s export rose at a slower rate in September dropped down at a slower rate in September, influenced by a quick decline in orders as the trade war escalates with the United States affecting the Chinese shipments, based on the survey by Reuters.

Imports exceeded recent highs, which is not a good indicator for Chinese policymakers who are relying on economic growth with weaker external demand.

If the economy further slowed down, economists see that this could drive more stimulus measure that would boost small and medium-sized firms as the main source of employment.

Export growth of China slowed to 8.9 percent in September from 9.8 percent gain in August., based on the median estimate of 32 economists in the Reuters poll.

Imports are also anticipated to slow down to 15 percent from 19.9 percent gain in August.

Forecast on exports tells a further slowdown in September amid rising trade protectionism. Although, the economist at Nomura noted that one less working day has added pressure to go down.

On the other hand, if the China-US trade tension continues for medium-to-long-term, this would have an impact and “hit beyond the scales” in trading reports.

China’s overall trade surplus is presumed to drop to $19.4 billion in September from $27.89 billion in the previous month.

The recent forecast of the International Monetary Fund reduced its global economic forecast for 2018 and the next as repercussion on Sino-US trade war. Moreover, China’s economic growth forecast declined to 6.2 for this year and 6.4 for the following year.

On Sunday, China announced their fourth cut this year to boost the economy, amounting to how much they have put aside as reserves to further strengthen the policy easing to hit back from the trade war with the US.

Germany’s Outlook for 2018 and 2019 Boosted by Domestic Demand



A strong domestic demand will push the increase of German growth by 1.8 percent for 2018 and the year after, according to the economy ministry on Thursday. Other than that, the net trade will not have an impact on the biggest economy in Europe.

The economic growth outlook of Germany is dimmed by the protectionist tendencies and international trade war. Other than that, Berlin also aims to impose quickly the EU-US tariffs which were agreed on earlier this year and sims to settle the transatlantic trade conflict.

The revised forecast from the government based on the report by Reuters on Wednesday, suggests the rising global trade dispute as the major contributing risk factor in the future.

Japan Exports Slumped in September, Dim Economic Outlook Amid Trade War



Exports of Japan dropped in September for the first time since 2016 due to lesser shipments to large nations of China and the US, dimming the incoming third-quarter economic outlook with larger impact of worsening US-China trade war.

Reuters data implies a third of Japanese companies, including other businesses and not just exporters, relayed having problems due to the trade war and concerns on the fall of businesses.

At the same time, Japanese policymakers are worrisome with the overall economic impact of the trade war. External concerns of natural disasters add conflict to this issue, affecting production and physical distribution.

Although the trade war has not physically affected the trading activity, a sluggish external demand has worsened the outlook of a sluggish outcome in the July quarter of the year.

A chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, Takeshi Minami, noted that the slight augmentation of the economic output was boosted by firm consumption and strong capex without any impact from external demand.

Yet for Japan, lesser shipments to America and China raises concern as the account for 20 percent of Japanese exports.

Data on Japanese exports released on Thursday showed a drop in exports by 1.2 percent in September than last year. Economists’ forecast based on Reuters survey shows that 1.9 percent in anticipated after a 6.6 percent gain in August. This has been the first decline since November of 2016.

By the number, the volume of exports declined to 4.8 percent in September of the year, which was the first drop since seven months ago.

Japan’s exports to the United States dropped by 0.2 percent in nine months due to a decline in shipments for construction and mining machinery, as well as, auto parts and medicines.

On the other, imports from the United States grew to 3.1 percent in September because of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas. This narrowed the trade surplus of the nation with the US by 4.0 percent year-on-year to 590 billion yen ($5.24 billion).

Meanwhile, the US is willing to discuss open trade talks with Japan, describing them to be relevant but performing less on the market for U.S. exports, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office conveying to the Congress on Tuesday.

China’s GDP YoY Growth Weakened in Q3



The economic growth of China rose at a slower rate of 6.5 percent in the third than a year ago, which is the weakest growth since the global financial crisis based on the data published on Friday.

It shows a moderate cooling of the country amid the efforts of the government for some years in facing the debt risks that starts to affect growth and ongoing trade war with the US that put exports at risk.

Survey of analysts by Reuters anticipate growth of the GDP by 6.6 percent in July, indicating a slight weakening compared to the 6.7 percent growth in the previous quarter.

The result of the GDP reading shows the weakest quarterly growth of year-on-year since the first quarter of 2009 in the background of the global financial crisis.

The latest economic data also expressed the decline in domestic demand amid softer factory activity of infrastructures and consumer spending after years of a clampdown on riskier lending added to debt causing the borrowing rates to go higher.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP growth rose to 1.6 percent on a quarterly basis in comparison to the 1.8 percent rise in the April quarter. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated growth of 1.6 percent on a quarterly basis.

Germany’s Outlook Turns Positive After a Weak Third Quarter Data



The German economy drops in the third quarter as they struggle due to declining in the car manufacturing sector amid continuous growth factors. Yet, the economy is presumed to recover in the last three months of the year, according to the Bundesbank on Monday.

The implementation of new motor vehicle emissions certification has somehow affected the German auto companies in getting regulatory clearance while large dealership discounts decrease in order to clear out stocks prior to the implementation of the new rules.

The largest economy in Europe accounted for the five-year growth of the euro bloc and this recent decline may have caused worries on ending the growth cycle before the countries can recover from debt crises years ago.

Bundesbank’s regular monthly economic report says that the German economy drive is still “fundamentally intact”.

The business climate grew which is apparent in the third quarter on the reports of Ifo institute. Hence, an economic expansion can be expected in the present quarter.

Yet, the retail sales and construction are likely to slow down as the reports on the third quarter scheduled to be published in the middle of November anticipated to slow down from recent highs. Such figures will have an impact on growth after a large drop in industrial production.

Although sectors other than automobile manufacturing are doing well and lag on industrial orders get bigger, Bundesbank also mentioned.

Growth forecast of Germany slid by 1.8 percent from 2.3 percent for this year and weakened the outlook for 2019 to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in the background of the trade war, employment shortages and struggles in the auto sector.

Japan’s Manufacturing PMI Grew Due to Rise in New Export Orders in October



Japan’s manufacturing activity grew in October at the quickest rate in about half a year as new exports orders recovered, according to the preliminary survey on Wednesday. It shows how careful most companies from a trade war.

The Flash Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 53.1 seasonally adjusted in October from the final output of 52.5 in September. It still over the 50 mark, separating contraction from expansion for more than two years and reached the highest number since April.

Export sales grew for the first time since May despite various problems because of a global trade war, according to Joe Hayes, an economist at IHS Markit.

Next month output is significant to confirm if the recovery is just for a short period of time and weakening due to recent natural disasters.

The preliminary new export orders index increased to 51.7 from a final 49.8 in September.

The confidence of Japanese manufacturers increased in October from September but will continue to be flat in the next three months based on the Reuters Tankan survey last week.

There are still risks involved with how trade deal between the United States and China will affect the global economy as they retaliate tariffs with each other in the past months and the planned bilateral trade talk is on hold.

Eurozone Inflation Outlook Remains the Same Despite Economic Growth Risks



The outlook of eurozone rates is presumed to continue increasing by 1.7 percent annually until 2020 despite risks of weak inflation and economic growth, according to a survey from the ECB on Friday.

The ECB announced their stimulus program of easing up to 2.6 trillion euro ($2.96 trillion) at the end of the year and increase rates after summer next year as they try to keep the inflation in spite of growth uncertainty.

The recent survey of Professional Forecasters supports the outlook on Friday, keeping their rates unchanged for headline inflation in the next two hikes to be at 1.7 percent and 1.9 percent in long-term.

However, the forecast for ECB is to reduce their estimates for core inflation and cut down more volatile energy and food prices and economic growth in 2018 and the next.

The target inflation rate of the eurozone’s central bank aims to be close to two percent but less than this number in medium-term.

The survey shows that the ECB growth of core prices will still increase by 10 basis and slow more than 1.2 percent this year and 1.5 percent the next.

Japan’s Retail Sales Growth Slowed Down After a Third Quarter GDP Drop



The retail sales in Japan grew in September for the 11th succeeding month, although the pace slowed down from the past month. It indicates the private consumption not strong enough to avoid slower economic growth.

The sudden decline in exports for the month of September based on the trade ministry data reflects moderate economic growth in the July quarter after expansion three months earlier.

Analysts see the third quarter sluggish growth to be transitory because of natural disasters that affected business and consumer activity in the past few months.

The central bank will monitor incoming reports including factory output and jobless reports during the board meeting this week to update the growth forecast. Data for the gross domestic product for the month of September is scheduled to be released on November 14.

Weakened growth puts into question the capacity of the central bank to reach the annual inflation target of 2 percent.

Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter dropped to 0.1 percent after a solid growth, which in turn prompts the central bank to curb down slightly inflation prospects for the current fiscal year but it is less likely to drop in the future.

Gains in September were driven by increasing gasoline price and strong sales of machine tools, food, and beverage purchases and clothing, while automobile sales decline, as well as, online retailers dropped.

The retail sales decreased by 0.2 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis in September compared to the previous month increase of 0.9.

Meanwhile, the annual core consumer inflation grew to 1.0 percent in September, which was the quickest in seven months boosted predominantly by higher oil prices to prepare in sustaining price growth.