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“No Winner” in Trade Battle, says China



The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) leaders will have a three-day meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa. According to China, no nation could be declared as the winner in the global trade dispute, as Chinese President Xi Jinping appealed to the developing countries to refuse protectionism. While South African President Cyril Ramaphosa cautioned about the effect of tariff threats by the American President Donald Trump. The BRICS consists of more than 40% of the world population but never work together as a coordinated economic bloc.

Furthermore, Xi stated that the consolidated expansion of developing countries and emerging market is continuous and will balance more the global growth. In the previous week, Trump spoke that he was ready to set upon $500bn worth of tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.

While South Africa is currently suffering from collateral damage due to US tariffs on steel and aluminum which affects 7,000 jobs, said the country’s Trade Minister Rob Davies. And the attempt to impose an exemption from the US administration ended up failing.

There were 22 more countries expected to participate in the summit this week, 19 of them is from Africa. China pledged $14.7bn worth of investments to South Africa, according to the announcement of President Ramaphosa after the opening ceremony.

U.S. GDP to Grow Significantly, says Econ Advisor Kudlow



U.S. economic advisor Larry Kudlow anticipates that the GDP for the second quarter will have a maximum raise. Kudlow was unable to give the specific figures, however, he contradicted the expected range of 4 to 4.5 percent. Moreover, the head of National Economic Council is the most recent official to discuss his viewpoint on economic data prior its publication, which infrequently happens in the White House.

Earlier in June, American President Donald Trump posted on Twitter about his anticipation for the release of the May nonfarm payrolls report, an hour prior the publication. Based on the Reuters survey, economists predicts that the quarterly GDP will reach 4.1 percent for the initial reading. In case that the growth rate will gain 5.2 percent, this can be regarded as the best single-quarter projection since Q3 of 2014 which is also the most significant increase during the presidency of Barack Obama.

Hence, the forecasts continue to show different numbers, as CNBC Rapid Update survey of top economists foresees 4.2 percent expansion and Barclays speculates for a 5.2 percent increase. On the other hand, the New York Fed assumes for a 2.7 percent low end while the Atlanta Fed stands at 3.8 percent.

US Economy to Gain 3pc, says Mnuchin



US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated his growth outlook for the American economy, he mentioned that the United States is heading for a 3 percent annual increase for many years.

Mnuchin further expressed that it is easy to predict potential earnings for the upcoming years, however, he deems that the ongoing growth supported itself for the next four or five years. He also said that the current administration concentrates on long-term and well-maintained economic performance, as their proposed plans were achieved. This was seen after the 4.1 percent Friday’s GDP report for the second quarter of this year.

UK Interest Rates Predicted to Grow This Week



The survey on top economists shows that experts are expecting for the Bank of England to lift its interest rates to 0.25% on Thursday, which would likely put pressure towards house hunters. Based on the poll of the Finder.com on Monday, there were nine economists who agreed that the Monetary Policy Committee will increase its rates during the Thursday’s meeting. The personal finance site mentioned that it’s the first time for the unanimous votes by experts in terms of the interest rates direction since 2007, while they have various responses about the effect of the predicted hike and further economic indicators.

Moreover, the economic figures indicate increasing wages and lesser unemployment rate influences the projected percentage hikes. Nevertheless, homebuyers anticipate for a bounce in their budgets due to wage growth offset led by the mounting costs on mortgages. One-third of the polled economists expressed pessimism towards housing affordability.

Also on Monday, the economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics further projected a raise on Thursday and stated that there could possibly rate hikes in 2019.

S. Korea Factory Activity Slump for Five Months in a Row



The factory activity of South Korea declined for the fifth time in July and recorded as the worst drop since November 2016. While new orders and output fell as shown in the private manufacturing poll on Wednesday.

The Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) had a downturn to 20-month low at 48.3 last month, compared to June’s 49.8 and remained to be lower than the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since March 2018. The manufacturing activity was affected by the new orders and output and slumped to its 3-month lows at 47.8 and 47.3, respectively. Furthermore, the data showed that the business confidence shrunk to ten-month low due to gloomy conditions. The output reading indicates notable weakness in the production figures for the month of June.

On the other hand, the instability in domestic demand occurred during the intensive global growth uncertainties as the international trade conflict threatens to affect economies that primarily rely on exports. The sub-index for new export orders had decreased from 52.9 on June to 50.1 in July, which gave hints for the potential marginal increase in new foreign businesses and if such trend will continue, the economic growth might get hurt.

South Korea was also afflicted by the war between the United States and China, as their largest export market, and this further heightened the risks for transport manufacturers.

German Factory Output Pick up in July, says PMI



According to a survey on Wednesday, stronger new orders and increased in output supported the development in German manufacturing industry for July. Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing comprises one-fifth of the economy and expanded to 56.9 versus 55.9 in June. Moreover, the July reading coincided with the May’s figures and higher than the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. The figure was below than flash reading of 57.3.

Germany’s economy was able to gain momentum following a soft patch during the first four months of 2018, but the forecasts appear to indecisive due to trade conflict issues. IHS Markit revealed that firms remain optimistic, showing that the level of positivity for the future surge since April..

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Singapore GDP Growth Down to 3.8%, says MTI



The economic report of Singapore for the second quarter of the year is expected to be release on Monday, Aug 13, at 8am, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The survey will further show the final economic growth data for Q2 which includes comprehensive details about employment, growth sources, inflation, productivity, and sectoral performances.

While last month, the forecasts indicated that Singapore's economic growth declined to a one-year low of 3.8 percent in April to June quarter due to escalation of trade uncertainties and slackening manufacturing sector. The expectation came in weaker than market outlook and lower than the 4.3 percent expansion reported in the first quarter this year.

Nevertheless, economists remained consistent with their growth outlook for the whole year despite the remarkably downside risks on the back of increasing tensions between the US and China and the recent property cooling measures.

According to the central bank of the country, Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the economy is projected to keep a "steady expansion path" last month amid the headwinds brought by trade wars. While in May, the MTI reduced the range estimate for Singapore's annual growth between 2.5 and 3.5 percent.

Japan Wage Growth Makes Significant Increase



Wages for workers in Japan had a significant increase in June due to the huge amount of summer bonuses. With this, the people were able to control their money despite the decline of household expenditure for five consecutive months.

Moreover, labor cash earnings increased by 3.6 percent in June 2017 against expected +1.7 percent. Real wages, on the other hand, were adjusted for inflation and showed growth of 2.8 percent versus the forecast of +0.9 percent. Since Japan was supported by the tightest labor markets for decades, wages had a steady growth path since mid-2017 and real wages also begin to rise. This is a favorable news for the central bank of Japan, as the BOJ recently adjusted their monetary policy to sustain the easing programme.

Families will be willing to have higher spending if they were convinced about the continuous pay hikes, which could prompt prices to increase as well as the economic growth development. However, the problem lies with the employers who tend to raise bonuses rather than imply permanent wage hike.

South Korea Slow Economic Recovery due to Weak Domestic Demand



The economic recovery of South Korea was restricted by the sluggish domestic demand despite the positive exports, as mentioned by an economic think tank on Tuesday. In a monthly report from the Korea Development Institute (KDI), exports sustained its optimistic growth on demand for locally produced semiconductors. However, the KDI mentioned that domestic demand slightly softened alongside the lagging recovery in consumer expenditure and fluctuation in corporate investment.

While the production recovery was affected by the trend and cooled down aside for several sectors such as the chip industry. Moreover, S. Korea’s retail sales grew by 4 percent in June but below than 4.5 percent expansion in July. While consumer sentiment index versus the economic status contracted to 101.0 in July from 105.5 in the previous month.