newdigital

MN price, XAUUSD.
Ichimoku Analysis

MN1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud/kumo and very far from Sinkou Span A line which is virtual border between primary bullish and primary bearish for highier timeframes on the chart. The nearest border of Ichimoku cloud is Sinkou Span B line which is on psy/key value of 1300.00:

• and if this line will be crossed with the price from below to above so we may see the secondary market condition within primary bearish (ranging bearish)
• if not so it will be bearish trend for this pair for whole 2015 (bearish)

So, for now, we can see the ranging market condition within primary bearish with sime variations of this situation: ranging bearish or just a bearish. What does it mean?

• ranging bearish: we are talking here about MN1 timeframe so the ranging bearish means the following - some week in 2015 may be uptrending one, some week/month will be bearish, but the general direction of the trend in 2015 - bearish.
• primary bearish (secondary trend is a bearish as well): downtrend with some market rally for some weeks or months, general direction is bearish for next year.

Support & Resistance Analysis

The nearest support level is 1204.48 which was already broken by MN price on close bar from above to below. if this is continued so we will see the downtrend for whole the next year.
The nearest resistance levels are 1345.21 and 1388.95. Those levelas are just 'rally levels' which are indicating the possible market rally withing primary bearish in case they will be brpken by MN price from below to above.

• If MN1 price will cross 1388.95 resistance level on close monthly bar so we may see the market rally with good possibility to open buy trade on D1 or W1 timeframe in the way of counter-trend.
• If MN price will cross 1204.48 support so the bearish trend will be continuing for whole next year.
• If not so the situation will not be changed for this pair for the next year concerning market condition for monthly timeframe.

Resistance	Support
1345.21	1204.48
1388.95	0.9695

To make it shorter - I am expecting the ranging market condition within primary bearish for 2015.
Trading Summary: ranging bearish
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If we look at patterns for some timeframes so it will provide some possibility to uptrend for example:

Forming Retracement pattern for uptrend, MN1 timeframe:



Forming Retracement pattern for uptrend, W1 timeframe:



Forming 3-Drives pattern for uptrend, D1 timeframe:



So, we have some hope to uptrend

Anyway, I am really expecting the primary bearish only with some possibility to ranging or market rally for example sorry.

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I made this analysis using free MT5 trading platform with free indicators and tools publicly available for anyone on this forum and on mql5.com portal.