BrokersMinutes

Last week was a relatively light one, with few key*fundamental releases, including the final version of Q2 GDP, which improved upon the initial estimates, with a print of 4.6% on the year. This week will be much heavier in terms of the number and significance of economic releases. Let’s take a look at the key ones we can expect to shake up the currency markets.

Monday (9/29)

German Preliminary CPI m/m (September)
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous 0.0%



After a couple of months of positive inflation in June and July, August showed a flat rate. If September’s inflation rate falls below 0.0%, the ECB will continue to be pressured to implement more stimulus measures.

US Pending Home Sales m/m (August)
Forecast: -0.4%
Previous: 3.3%

Tuesday (9/30)

UK Final GDP q/q (Q2)
Forecast: 0.8%
Previous: 0.8%

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y (September)
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous 0.3%



If Eurozone inflation can’t hold at or above 0.3%, the euro might remain pressured due to increasing expectation of more stimulus measures by the ECB, who meets on Thursday (10/2)

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (August)
Forecast: 11.5%
Previous: 11.5%

CAN: GDP m/m (July)
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous 0.3%



GDP data for *Canada has been volatile this year, and the CAD is currently pressured. The loonie is a commodity currency and we can attribute part of its decline to its correlation of an asset that has been falling sharply in the past couple of months. A strong GDP above 0.3% can help the CAD find support.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence (September)
Forecast: 92.2
Previous 92.4

AUS Retail Sales m/m (August)
Forecast: 0.4%
Previous 0.4%

Wednesday (10/1)

UK Manufacturing PMI (September)
Forecast: 52.6
Previous 52.5



UK Manufacturing PMI has been sliding, though it remains in expansion. If it continues to fall, we can see the resilience of GBP give way to stronger currencies such as the USD.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Forecast: 206K
Previous: 204K

US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 58.6
Previous: 59.0

Thursday (10/2)

ECB Monetary Policy Decision
Forecast: Maintain minimum bid rate at 0.05%
The market will be keen on how the ECB assesses its stimulus measures from the previous couple of meetings, and whether more stimulus like Quantitative Easing (QE), is being considered. If the market believes there is a real chance of QE, the EUR can continue to fall.

US Jobless Claims (weekly)
Forecast: 299K
Previous 293K

Friday (10/3)

UK Services PMI (September)
Forecast: 59.1
Previous: 60.5

US Non-Farm Payroll Change (September)
Forecast: 216K
Previous 142K



US Unemployment Rate (September)
Forecast: 6.1%
Previous 6.1%

ISM Services PMI (September)
Forecast: 58.5
Previous: 59.6

More...