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EUR/USD had an excellent week that saw more volatility than the prior week with the pair hitting the highest levels in over three years. Is there more to come? Final inflation figures stand out in the week before the ECB decision. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Trade Balance: Monday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus thanks to Germany’s robust exports. This surplus stood at 19 billion euros in October and could rise now, as we already know that Germany saw a wider surplus in November and despite France’s wider deficit. A surplus of 22.4 billion is on the cards.
2. German Final CPI: Tuesday, 7:00. The initial read for December showed a monthly rise of 0.6% in prices in Europe’s largest economy. The final read will likely confirm the initial read.
3. CPI (Final): Wednesday, 10:00. The flash estimate of euro-zone CPI showed an OK figure on the headline: 1.4% y/y, in line with expectations. However, core inflation remained at 0.9%, below 1%, for the third consecutive month, showing that underlying inflation is still poor. The final read will likely confirm the initial estimate.
4. Jens Weidmann speaks Thursday, 8:!5. The president of the German Bundesbank will make another public appearance. Will he provide a hint about an announcement about the end of QE? We know that he is a hawk, so making dovish remarks could have a bigger impact than hawkish ones. Nevertheless, his words could move markets.
5. German PPI: Friday, 10:00. Producer prices missed in November by rising by only 0.1%, breaking a streak of figures coming out ahead of forecasts. Inflation in the pipeline, as reflected by PPI, still seems stronger than CPI. A rise of 0.2% is expected.
6. Current Account: Friday, 10:00. Similar to the narrower trade balance figure, the wider current account measure is in a significant surplus. The figure for October was relatively low, with 30.3 billion, a miss on estimates. We could see a higher number in the read for November. A surplus of 31.3 billion is predicted.

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