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Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09

AUD/USD reversed directions last week and gained 110 points. The pair closed at 0.7683. This week’s key indicators are Retail Sales and the RBA rate statement.

1. AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 19:30
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Sunday, 21:00. The indicator provides analysts with a monthly look at inflation, as CPI is released each quarter. In May, the indicator softened to 0.0%, down from 0.5% a month earlier.
3. Building Approvals: Sunday, 21:30. The forecast for the June report is -1.2%.
4. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Sunday, 21:45. Chinese indicators are closely watched, as they can have a strong impact on the Australian dollar. In May, the index dropped to 49.6, pointing to slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. The estimate for June stands at 49.9.
5. Commodity Prices: Monday, 2:30. Commodity prices have been showing smaller gains, with a reading of 32.6% in May.
6. Retail Sales: Monday, 21:30. This key event should be treated as a market-mover. The estimate for the May report stands at 0.3%.
7. RBA Rate Statement: Tuesday, 00:30. The RBA is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 1.50%, where rates have been pegged since July 2016. Analysts will be monitoring the rate statement for the bank’s assessment of the health of the Australian economy.
8. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 21:30. The surplus is expected to increase to A$1.11 billion in the May report.
9. AIG Construction Index: Thursday, 19:30.

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