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Date: 10th November 2023.

Market Update – November 10 – Multi-day Win Streak Came To An End.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street’s multi-day win streak came to an abrupt end Thursday after one of the worst bond auctions on record sparked a sharp selloff in Treasuries, led by the long end, and reignited concerns over who will be buyers of US debt. Also weighing on the front end were comments from Fed Chair Powell and others who pushed back against expectations for rate cuts by June.



UK: GDP stagnated in the third quarter of the year. Data for the whole quarter flagged a -4.2% contraction in business activity, and a -2.0% q/q decline in gross fixed capital formation. On top of this, while September numbers look positive, with manufacturing and construction output, survey data suggest that this bounce is not going to last, and as the BoE has admitted as well, the short term outlook is negative.

Fed: Chair Powell stressed that the FOMC will not hesitate to tighten rates further if appropriate. The same message has been sent by every other policymaker in recent sessions. That has been a very consistent message from the Fed and the Chair, whether the markets want to believe it or not. But Powell also reiterated the Fed will continue to move “carefully.” He is not confident yet that the policy is restrictive enough to hit the 2% goal.

*USDIndex stabilised and nudged up to 105.70 as Treasury yields move higher. EURUSD has corrected to 1.0660 from highs over 1.07 and Cable corrected to 1.2227. USDJPY has continued to move higher and is currently at 151.35, as markets test intervention threats.
*Stocks: Stocks tumbled into the close to finish at lows. This broke the 9-day win streak on the US100 and the 8-day streak on the US500. Stock markets remained under water during the Asian hours as well. *European futures are also in the red however US futures are already showing signs of stabilisation, as investors settle for signals that in the central scenario rates have peaked not just in the US.
*Oil slightly higher to 76 area but it is headed for a 3rd weekly drop.
*Gold reverted to 1955 after a recent rally yesterday to the 1970 area as bears have taken a swing to test the resistance at 1964. Central bank officials have been pushing back against expectations of early rate cuts and yields have lifted from recent lows. This is coupled with a stabilisation in the Dollar that has undermined the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion – at least for now.
*Today: ECB Lagarde & Michigan sentiment.



Interesting Mover: GBPNZD – Down channel identified at 09-Nov-21:30. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 2.0777 within the next 20 hours.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th November 2023.

Market Update – November 13 – Pivotal week ahead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It’s the day before a possible Government shutdown again, and a pretty pivotal week ahead for company reports and a round of significant inflation data. Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Wall Street closed with a strong rally last week, but with investors waiting for key US inflation numbers, sentiment was mixed.



Late Friday, Moody’s trimmed the outlook on the US credit rating to negative from stable. The factors behind the change included the view that downside risks to the country’s fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths. It did not help that Congress is again battling to prevent a partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, Moody’s also affirmed the AAA rating, noting it expects the US to “retain its exceptional economic strength” and it suggested “further positive growth surprises over the medium term could at least slow the deterioration in debt affordability.”

*USDIndex held at 2-day bottom, at 105.60.
*USDJPY: Hit new 1 year high, at 151.80 amid wider weakness in the Yen.
*Japanese wholesale inflation slowed below 1% for the first time in just over 2-1/2-years in October, a sign that cost push pressures that had been driving up prices for a wide range of goods were starting to fade. The slowdown in commodity-led inflation is in line with the Bank of Japan’s projections, and puts the spotlight on whether wages and household spending would increase enough to generate a demand-driven rise in consumer prices.
*Stocks: The Hang Seng outperformed, and European futures are also making headway, while US futures are in the red. Bonds declined across Asia, but Treasuries have pared overnight losses, and the US 10-year rate is down -1.2 bp at 4.64%, while the German 10-year yield is up 0.4 bp, and the Gilt yield down -0.1 bp.
*Oil gapped down on the open, reversing partial gains from Friday’s rally, but holds above $76. Any further renewed concerns over waning demand in the United States and China could dent market sentiment.
*Gold remains below $1,950 an ounce but is seeing a positive start to the week as investors react to Moody’s negative outlook on US debt but also as focus turns on US inflation for more cues on the Fed outlook.
*Palladium hovering near 5-year lows.



Interesting Mover: CADJPY – Rising Wedge identified. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 110.5324 within the next 3 days. Supported by Upward sloping Moving Average.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th November 2023.

Market Update – November 14.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets are treading water in Europe, after a largely higher close across Asia. The ASX gained 0.8%, the Nikkei 0.3%, while China bourses traded mixed. In Europe GER40 and UK100 are up 0.1% and down -0.1% respectively, while US futures are posting slight gains, as markets wait for the key US inflation report later today.The DXY dollar index has traded in a relatively narrow range so far and is at 105.674.



Late Friday, Moody’s trimmed the outlook on the US credit rating to negative from stable. The factors behind the change included the view that downside risks to the country’s fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths. It did not help that Congress is again battling to prevent a partial government shutdown. Meanwhile, Moody’s also affirmed the AAA rating, noting it expects the US to “retain its exceptional economic strength” and it suggested “further positive growth surprises over the medium term could at least slow the deterioration in debt affordability.”

*Yen’s quick recovery from 151.91 on Monday probably reflected positioning in the options market
*UK wage growth remains high. Hopes that an easing labour market will limit upward pressure on wages were one of the reasons the BoE has stopped the tightening cycle, but today’s round of data will give those who voted for another hike something to argue with.
*USDJPY – 151.60 – Yen traders brace for risk of deeper drop on US Inflation – 33-year high?
*Treasury Yellen ”Beijing’s heavy financial support for certain industries could pose a threat to other nations” – ” downside risk to the chinese economic outlook that could affect . . . many Apec economies”
*Stocks have recovered from opening losses, with small gains registered on the US500 and US30. The former broke 4-month down channel to the upside.
*Asian & EU equities crept higher – GER40 +0.14%, JPN225 +0.34%.
*Treasuries have found a bid with yields a couple of basis points
*USOIL pick to 78.35 post an OPEC report stating Demand is robust, and “overblown negative sentiment” – The American Automobile Association said the US Thanksgiving travel period will be the busiest since 2019.
*Gold steady at 1945 after yesterday’s rally
*TODAY: German ZEW, IEA report, US CPI. Earnings: Home Depot today, Cisco Systems, Target on Wednesday, then Alibaba Group Holding
BABA and Walmart report on Thursday.
*US CPI preview: Headline inflation fell to 3.3% in October, down from 3.7 % in September.



Biggest Mover: GBPUSD breached 1.2300 – GBP responded strongly post UK jobs data – impressive figures – employment rose (+54K), average weekly earnings up and revised higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th November 2023.

Market Update - November 15 - Technicals & FOMO adding to the moves.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A strong close on Wall Street was followed by a broad rally across Asian markets. An unexpected slowdown in US inflation boosted bets that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, which brought down yields and benefited equity markets. UK inflation numbers this morning also came in a tad below market consensus, which put pressure on the Pound as investors upped bets that the BoE is also done hiking rates. The markets also brought forward the timing of rate cuts with an 88% probability of a 25 bp easing in May, and 50 bps priced in by July with 100 bps in cuts in 2024. Short covering, FOMO, and the break of technicals added to the gains. The belly of the Treasury curve outperformed on the Fed implications.



*US House voted for a short term funding bill, probably averting a partial government shutdown on Saturday (336 to 95).
*UK: CPI fell to 4.6% y/y from 6.7% y/y in the previous month. It was the lowest since October 2021 and less than half the recent peak of 11.1% y/y in October 2022. Output as well as input prices are already creeping up again and headline numbers for consumer prices remain far too high for the BoE’s liking.
*China: Data was mixed but mostly disappointing, reflecting ongoing sluggish to weak activity heading into the end of the year. Fixed property investment dropped to a -9.3% y/y rate, extending the -9.1% pace of contraction in September. It is disappointing but not surprising given the deepening troubles in that sector. It is the fastest pace of contraction since the -10.0% y/y in December. Residential property sales fell, new property construction & fixed asset investment were down.
*PBoC left its 1-year median lending rate unchanged at 2.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The Bank offered 1.45 tln yuan ($200 bln) in cash, the largest net injection since December 2016 as officials try to counter the weakness from the beleaguered property sector.
*EURUSD has soared 2 figures to 1.088, the best since August. It was helped earlier by a better than expected German ZEW investor confidence report.
*USDJPY slumped to 150.25 from the day’s peak of 151.78. It’s been above 150.00 since November 6 and may be able to hold the line there as the BoJ still shows little inclination of normalizing policy this year.
*Stocks surged with the US100 jumping 2.37%, while the US500 climbed 1.9 and the US30 surged 1.43%. Strength was broad based with every S&P sector closing in the green.
*USoil steadied and Gold edged higher to $1971.
*TODAY: US Retail Sales & PPI.



Interesting Mover: USDIndex plunged the most in a year, dropping 2 big figures intraday to a low of 103.81 before closing at 104.05. Next support is at 102.7-103. area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th November 2023.

Market Update – November 17.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets struggled, and the Hang Seng in particular remained under pressure amid lingering concern over China’s growth outlook and a slump in Alibaba Group Hlds. as the company scrapped a spinoff of its cloud business due to US chip export restrictions.



European futures as well as most US futures are also finding buyers amid growing conviction that central bank rates have peaked in the US as well as Europe, which leaves markets looking for the timing of the first rate cut. Bonds are benefiting and yields continue to trend lower. European futures as well as most US futures are also finding buyers amid growing conviction that central bank rates have peaked in the US as well as Europe, which leaves markets looking for the timing of the first rate cut.

*US data once again, helped treasuries and add to the bullish sentiment that has prevailed most of the month.
*US Dollar slid higher to 104.36, up from recent lows, but still heading for a weekly loss, while Yields down as markets price in that Fed done with hiking.
*Euro strengthens after Tuesday’s significant 1.69% surge. Sterling (-0.23%) dive to 1.2375 post an unexpected decline in UK retail sales.
*AUDUSD & NZDUSD down for a 2nd consecutive day.
*Stocks: The JPN225 managed to dodge the trend and the wider MSCI Asia Pacific Index is still heading for a solid weekly gain. The US500 up +0.15%, US30 slipped -0.13% and the US100 0.07% higher.
*Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s (-9%) market value has slumped to only about half that of rival Tencent Holdings Ltd , as company had cancelled plans to spin off its cloud computing unit and paused a push to list its grocery chain.
*Walmart (-8% ) plunging, even after in-line earnings, as more cautionary outlook with D-word (deflation) rattling investors.
*Energy: USOil drop nearly 5% s below key $73 support level, leaving oil on course for a fourth weekly correction.
*Metals: XAUUSD spiked to 1988, set for a strong weekly close.



Interesting Mover: USDIndex plunged the most in a year, dropping 2 big figures intraday to a low of 103.81 before closing at 104.05. Next support is at 102.7-103. area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st November 2023.

NASDAQ: Upcoming NVIDIA Earnings


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The US100 declined during this morning’s futures market and also ended Friday’s session lower. However, the instrument is not witnessing any significant downward pressure or momentum, but continues to honor the established price range. According to the Chicago Exchange the possibilities of another rate hike over the next year are virtually zero and 30% of experts believe the Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Fund Rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2024. With the hiking cycle at an end, the market could experience ideal market conditions for a bullish market.

Another positive factor for the US100 and the stocks market in general is the decline in the Dollar and Bond yields. The US Dollar Index has declined by 3.20% this month and continued to decline further this morning. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond yield has dropped to its lowest since September 2023. If the Dollar and Bond yields continue to decline throughout the day, the possibility of investor sentiment increasing grows. As a result, the US100 could potentially rise and break the $15,871 resistance level.

Both Asian and European stocks traded higher at the futures market open. Again, if European and Asian investors show a high-risk appetite, something similar may be witnessed in the US.



Over the next two days, the price of the US100 is likely to be influenced by two major events: the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes and NVIDIA’s third quarterly earnings report of 2023. NVIDIA is the 5th most influential stock within the US100 and holds a weight of 4.58%. The company is again expected to make higher earnings and revenue compared to the previous quarters. The US100 will find significant support, if the earnings per share and revenue is higher than expected.

NVIDIA stocks have increased by 19% over the past month and 2% in the past week. The price movement indicates shareholders are confident ahead of the quarterly earnings release.

Currently the US100 remains above major trend lines and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. However, the instrument is trading within a retracement. Therefore, investors will be keen to see it reach $15,831 which will be enough momentum to obtain a potential buy signal on short-term charts.

GBPUSD

The Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden advised markets that the central bank will keep interest rates high for at least 6 months to bring inflation back to its 2.0% target over the medium term. Analysts predict that the central bank will begin reducing borrowing costs in May or June 2024, with three 25 basis point adjustments planned by the end of next year, but for now its pressure on mortgage holders will continue. Currently, it is believed the Fed will cut before the BOE, which could support the Cable. According to a survey by consulting company Savanta, 58% of respondents have late payments now versus 49% the same month last year.



The latest wave on the GBPUSD is a correcting wave aiming for the previous high at 1.24638. However, investors will be monitoring if the exchange rate finds support at this level similar to previous price action patterns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st November 2023.

NASDAQ Break Resistance to New 23-Month High.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The US100 broke through a major resistance level, rising to the highest level since January 2022. The instrument rose by 1.20% on Monday forming its fourth consecutive bullish candlestick on a weekly chart. The technology sector in particular witnessed a surge in demand due to its exposure to “growth stocks” which are benefiting from the end to the hiking cycle. In addition to this, the US100 is already pricing in a rate cut as early as March.

The 10 top stocks holding the highest “weight” within the index all rose in value on Monday and from the top 20 stocks only PepsiCo saw a slight decline (-0.14%). From the US100’s components 90% of the stocks ended the day higher. NVIDIA was the best-performing component, rising 2.26% as investors await the release of the third quarter earnings report scheduled for this evening. Analysts expect NVIDIA’s earnings per share to rise 20% compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, the company quarterly revenue is believed to have risen 16%. During this morning’s pre-market hours, the stocks have risen a further 0.30%.

The 10-year bond yields are trading 0.027% lower during this morning’s Asian session and the US Dollar Index is down 0.15%. Both bond yields and the weaker Dollar could potentially prompt investors to increase exposure in the stock market. However, traders should keep in mind investors may look to buy at the discounted price. This could potentially pressure the NASDAQ in the short-term.

Nonetheless, a key influential factor will be tonight’s Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes. The event is still likely to trigger volatility regardless of the fact that the Meeting Minutes is a “lagging” indicator. If the market senses a tone of dovishness or caution, traders will deem the meeting as indicating a potential cut. This is because inflation has declined by 0.5% since the meeting. Indication of a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024 could indicate the continuation of the bullish trend.

A concern for investors was the mini-crisis related to Sam Altman’s sacking as CEO of OpenAI on November 17th. However, Microsoft seems to be emerging as the victor as Mr Altman potentially may join as a Chief Executive of the new research lab. Microsoft stocks, which hold more than 10% of the NASDAQ, rose by 2.05% on Monday and a further 0.28% in pre-market open hours.



GBPUSD

The Bank of England’s Governor yesterday evening advised markets that the regulator may again consider another interest rate hike. According to Bloomberg, almost all analysts are not taking the comment seriously, but see it as an indication that a rate cut in the UK may be further away than originally thought.

The Cable rose by 0.43% on Monday and is trading 0.30% higher during this morning’s Asian session. Early this afternoon the Governor of the Bank of England will again speak, but this time testifying in parliament. Investors will be closely scrutinizing comments looking for confirmation of yesterday’s point of view. The US Dollar Index is again declining this morning; however, investors will also be monitoring the Dollar’s reaction after this evening’s meeting minutes. The Pound on the other hand is experiencing “mixed” price movement against other currencies.



Gold

The price of Gold ended the day slightly lower on Monday but saw a surge in buyers towards the end of the day’s sessions. This morning the price of Gold has risen a whopping 0.81% but has risen to a previous resistance level and price range. Therefore, investors will be monitoring if the asset forms a breakout and continues its bullish trend or if the asset moves into a strong price range which remains intact in the medium term.

According to the report of the US CFTC, last week the number of net speculative positions dropped to 155.4 thousand from 166.2 thousand a week earlier. Sellers are actively exiting the asset. Last week, buyers increased the number of contracts by 2.338 thousand, while the sellers closed 6.150 thousand contracts. This is signaling an increase in the upward dynamics but traders question whether Gold can maintain its momentum above $2,000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Eftymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd November 2023.

Market Changes Stance After FOMC Meeting Minutes.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

EURUSD – Dollar Climbs After FOMC Meeting Minutes

The EURUSD ended the day lower for the first time after climbing for 3 consecutive days. The minutes of the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve supported the Dollar but also had factors which concerned Dollar buyers. Certain members of the Fed’s Committee stated they expect the rate to remain at a high level for “quite a long time”, while others would not give a clear indication of a cut and that rates would remain higher for longer. However, some economists view this as dovish considering inflation has now declined. In addition, the regulator does not exclude the possibility of further tightening of monetary conditions if the rate of decline in inflation continues to slow down. This is where the Dollar can potentially benefit. The question is whether the Fed will consider one last 0.25% hike if inflation refuses to drop below 3%.

Economists’ views have already slightly shifted since the Fed’s Meeting Minutes. According to the Chicago exchange there is now a 5% possibility of a hike in the next 3 months. Previously, the only possibility was a pause for the near-term future.

The US Dollar Index is trading 0.17% higher this morning and is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the Euro is also increasing in value against all major competitors. Therefore, investors should be cautious about an attempted correction back to 1.09225 and 1.09607. The Euro is being supported by the European Central Bank’s stance on keeping interest rates high for “several more quarters”. The Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that interest rates in the eurozone had reached a plateau, where they were likely to remain. However, if the possibilities of another hike from the Fed rise, the Euro may struggle to hold onto gains.

If the price declines below 1.08995, sell signals are likely to materialize. Whereas, if the price increases above 1.09225, buy signals will gain momentum again. If the exchange rate had fallen a further 0.25%, the instrument would have broken recent support barriers.



This afternoon investors will be monitoring 3 economic events: The US Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders and Revised Consumer Sentiment. If the Unemployment claims remain stable or lower than expected, while the Goods Orders and UoM Sentiment remain higher, the Dollar could potentially gain momentum.

US100 – NASDAQ Continues Bullish Trend Pattern

The US100 declined 0.75% during yesterday’s trading session but continues to follow the traditional upward trend pattern. Currently the asset is trading above the 60-candlestick trend line and is hovering above neutral on Oscillators. Therefore, a further impulse wave is still possible. However, of the top 5 stocks holding the highest weight within the index, only 1 stock is trading higher during this morning’s pre-market hours (Microsoft +0.12%). Though investors will monitor if this changes when the US open nears.

According to market analysts, there is now a slightly higher possibility of one last interest rate hike, however, the possibility is very slim. According to Bloomberg, if inflation does not rise in December and unemployment remains around the 4% mark, a pause will remain almost a certain outcome. The bond market this morning is significantly declining, dropping 0.022%, which is positive for the US100. Both German and French indices are trading higher in the European market open which is also another positive indication for the US100.

NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report was significantly higher than expected which is positive “fundamentally”, but so far has not pushed the stock higher. The company’s Earnings Per Share were 19% higher and Revenue rose 25% from the previous quarter. However, the stock has dropped 1.74% in after hours trading. Investors will monitor if demand grows once today’s session opens.



Interesting Mover: USDIndex plunged the most in a year, dropping 2 big figures intraday to a low of 103.81 before closing at 104.05. Next support is at 102.7-103. area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Eftymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd November 2023.

McDonald’s Looks to Double Chinese Presence Boosting the US30!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US30

The best performing index on Wednesday was the US30 which rose to its highest price since August but is not yet at its peak like the US100. Due to it not breaking previous resistance points and trading at an all-time high, investors may be more comfortable investing in the US30 which is at a lower risk of being overbought.

The US30 was particularly supported by Goldman Sachs and McDonald’s stocks. Goldman Sachs rose 1.26% with investors continuing to purchase the discounted price as the investment banks recover from the 2021-2022 mini-crisis. Investors are also heavily purchasing McDonald’s stocks for similar reasons. McDonald’s stocks dropped 14% in August-October giving investors the opportunity to invest at a more competitive price.

Investors are particularly investing in McDonald’s as the company attempts to enter and control the Chinese Market, similar to Apple in the past. This week the company bought the shares in Chinese company Carlyle Group, bringing its total ownership to 48.0%. The Fund is a joint venture with CITIC Group Corporation Ltd., which owns 52.0% of the shares. The deal is a continuation of the plan to actively capture the Chinese market and increase the number of restaurants in the country. Over the past 5 years, the number of McDonald’s restaurants in China has doubled to 5,500 and it has become its second-largest market. The Board of Directors advises the company to aim to have more than 10,000 restaurants over the next 5 years.

McDonalds is the fifth most influential stock within the US30 and at times has been known as a defensive stock. The company has proven to thrive even during adverse market conditions and recessions.

Bond Yields and the US Dollar Index are trading lower this morning which is also deemed as a positive factor for the US30 and US equities. Investors will be monitoring the price performance of European indices once the European market opens in order to gauge global investor sentiment. However, investors should note that volumes and volatility remain low due to the US bank holiday.



The US30 is trading within the “trend-zone” of regression channels and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. Therefore, the assets continue to formally trade within a bullish trend. If the instrument breaks above $35,333, buy signals are likely to materialize again.

EURGBP

The Euro has increased in value against all major currencies since the second half of yesterday. However, the price will be largely dependent on today’s Purchasing Managers Index, which is one of the most popular and one of the few “leading indicators”. Leading indicators are based on future conditions rather than previous data such as CPI, NFP and other government statistics.

Both French and German PMIs are expected to increase in value compared to the previous month but still remain within the “economic contraction” zone. However, should the two leading EU economies fail to surpass expectations, the Euro may be unable to hold onto gains. The UK will also release its Services and Manufacturing sector PMI 1 hour after their European partners. The UK’s data will similarly influence the price movement of the EURGBP.



Medium-term technical analysis leans more towards a decline in the Euro against the Pound. However, the price will need to decline below 0.87167, for short-term signals to point towards an imminent decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th November 2023.

Month-end cautious approach.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A wait-and-see stance is all but assured at the last policy meetings of 2023 for the key central banks, the FOMC, ECB, BoE, BoC, and BoJ. Disinflationary trends in the West have afforded central bankers the opportunity to move to the sidelines to observe. But we and they will have to monitor the data into the new year to assess the length of the “higher” stance, or to determine whether the next action will be up or down.



The US30 is trading within the “trend-zone” of regression channels and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. Therefore, the assets continue to formally trade within a bullish trend. If the instrument breaks above $35,333, buy signals are likely to materialize again.

Meanwhile this week, the month’s end and the anticipation of key data releases, have generated some caution, with futures markets slightly lower globally.

Key Events of the Week: US and EU inflation data, Powell event, official China PMI & delayed Opec+ meeting. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde speaks at the EU Parliament later today.

*PBOC announced it would encourage financial institutions to support private companies, including tolerance for non-performing loans.
*Global stocks on 4-week rally: US500 futures eased 0.2% & US100 lost 0.4%. The US500 rallied for 4 weeks straight and is up 8.7% on the month so far, which would be its best performance since mid-2022.
*Approximately 55% of the S&P 500’s component shares are trading above their 200-DMA the highest share in nearly two months, according to LPL Financial.
*Asian shares slipped today, ahead of potentially market-moving inflation data from the US & EU and the OPEC+ meeting,prompting them to sell stocks to lock in profits. JPN225 fell 0.53% to close at 33,447.67. CSI300 fell another 0.8% and have missed out on all the global cheer with the market down 1.8% in November so far.
*Reuters: Morgan Stanley bought $300 million worth of protection against losses on some of its loans from Blackstone Group and other investors. The deal is one of several such credit risk transfer transactions that US banks are considering in the aftermath of a March crisis in the sector and as regulators look to increase capital they have to hold, bankers, lawyers and investors said.
*Treasury yields are slightly higher, but that hasn’t helped the US Dollar.
*USDIndex is at 2-month low, i.e. 103.30, EURUSD is up at 1.0952, not far from 4-month high of 1.0965 – Markets priced in 80 basis points of US easing next year, and around 82 basis points for the ECB.
*USDJPY pulled back to 148.77 due to the soft Dollar against a broadly firmer Yen.
*USOIL under pressure at $75 area & UKOIL fell to $80 ahead of Thursday’s meeting, as uncertainty regarding Opec outlook and failure to easy market worries of a deeper supply weighs on the energy markets.
*Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.
*Key Mover: Gold climbs to 6-month high in choppy trade, hit $2,017.82. Spot gold may extend gains into $2,027-$2,030.



Medium-term technical analysis leans more towards a decline in the Euro against the Pound. However, the price will need to decline below 0.87167, for short-term signals to point towards an imminent decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.