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Date : 18th January 2022.

Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815.

* USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier.
* US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%.
* Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633.
* USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment.
* Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823.
* Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data.

Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable.

Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, Netflix

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months.

Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th January 2022.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows.

* USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains.
* US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% & trades at 1.883%.
* Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539.
* USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment.
* Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806.
* Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1336, USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday, Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday.

Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%.

European Open – The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure.

Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%) Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th January 2022.

Market Update – January 20 – Equities weaker, Gold rallies, Yields cool.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.15%) Financials and Tech companies led the slide, USD slipped as Yields – slide from highs, Oil higher again, Gold was asset of the day charged higher to $1842, supported by further hot Inflation data from Germany, UK and Canada and strong housing data from the US. China cut its mortgage rate lifting Asian markets (Nikkei +1.11%). Lagarde: ECB has reasons NOT to act as quickly as the FED. Biden increased the rhetoric over Russia & Ukraine predicting Russia would “make a move”. Johnson holds on in UK, for now.

*USD (USDIndex 95.42) slips as Yields decline .
*US Yields 10-yr moved higher to spike at 1.90% & trades at 1.85%.
*Equities – USA500 -44 (-0.97%) 4532 – USA500 FUTS holds up at 4544.
*USOil – Spiked to $87.97 and subsequently collapsed to 84.00 after Biden comments and ahead of inventories today.
*Gold – charged to $1843 and holds $1838 now after inflation news and & Biden comments. A hold of 1830 is key.
*Bitcoin back to test $42,400,
*FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1360, USDJPY now 114.40 & Cable back to 1.3625.

Overnight – AUD JOBS better than expected, Unemployment 4.2% vs 4.6%, GERMAN PPI rocketed to 5.0% form 0.8%.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 5 ticks at 169.33, outperforming slightly versus US futures. The yield is up from the lows seen during the Asian part of the session though and especially for the short end, the trend higher will likely continue. The long end meanwhile should actually benefit from tightening steps as inflation continues to spike. DAX and FTSE 100 futures area posting gains of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively at the moment, and a 0.8% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher.

Today – Norges Bank & CBRT rate decisions, EZ CPI (final), ECB Minutes, US Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales. Earnings from American Airlines and Netflix.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+0.51%) Rallied from 1.0600 yesterday to breach 1.0700 earlier, although cooling now. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 63 but cooling, H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0053.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st January 2022.

Market Update – January 21 – Stocks Sink – Netflix & Peloton Crash.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.3%) Tech companies led the slide, (Peloton -24%, Netflix -18% post results. USD firmed as Yields & Oil dipped, Gold held onto to gains. Markets are nervous and risk aversion has picked up as investors eye shaky earnings, and waning confidence, with mounting tensions over Ukraine adding to geopolitical tensions. US Weekly claims hit a 3-mth high, EZ Inflation was an ATH and North Korea said it may resume testing its nuclear arsenal. Asian markets and AUD & NZD lower (AUDJPY -0.62%) ASX 200 (-1.2%), Nikkei 225 (-1.8%).

*USD (USDIndex 95.65) ticks higher slips as Yields decline .
*US Yields 10-yr moved closed at 1.83% & trades at 1.785%.
*Equities – USA500 -50 (-1.1%) 4482 – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4467.
*USOil – Fell below $82.00 afrom highs at 87.95 on Wednesday, Inventories increased by 0.5m vs 2.3m drawdown.
*Gold – held on to gains topped at $1848 and holds $1838 now, holding the key 1830 support.
*Bitcoin under $40,000 back to test $39,000,
*FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1322, USDJPY now 113.80 & Cable back to 1.3570, the week’s low.

Overnight – UK Retail Sales plunged -3.7%, Consumer confidence slipped 4 whole points to -19 and Japanese core inflation was inline at 0.5%.

European Open – The 10 US Treasury yield is up from overnight lows, Bunds are also finding buyers in opening trade, and the 10-year continues to shy away from turning positive, as ECB officials continue to push back against speculation of an early rate hike at the end of the year and market sentiment generally turns cautious. DAX and FTSE 100 future are posting losses of -1.4% and -1.1% respectively.

Today – EZ Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Mann; ECB’s Lagarde, BoJ’s Kuroda.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.66%) Rallied from 1.6675 yesterday to breach 1.6800 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.0026 Daily ATR 0.0100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th January 2022.

Market Update – January 24 – Markets on toes on Fed and Ukraine jitters.

[img]Market Update – January 24 – Markets on toes on Fed and Ukraine jitters[/img]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It was all about risk aversion and a flight to safety in the markets to end the week. Concerns over Ukraine-Russia tensions added to the bearish backdrop as the hawkish turn the FOMC and other central banks, along with the worries over inflation, as well as earnings as the impacts surging expenses on the bottom line take their toll.Meanwhile, the PBoC is going the other was as it looks to shore up its slumping economy. China’s central bank just cut its 14-day reverse repo rate and added more stimulus after cutting the 7-day rae last Monday, along with the reduction in the 1-year medium term loan rate. This is providing some support to Chinese stocks and that could underpin some follow-through dip buying into Western equity markets

Additionally, many of the high flying pandemic companies are crumbling, led by the weakness in Netflix and Peloton. The 10-year Treasury rate is at 1.76%, the German Bund rate at -0.065%, both slightly lower. USD firmed Gold held onto to gains.

* Preliminary PMI readings for Japan showed struggling services sector, but ongoing improvement in manufacturing, which left the composite in contraction territory for the first time since September 2021.
* Australia’s composite plunged to 45.3 from 54.9.
* China’s PBOC provided 14-day funds at a 10 bp lower rate, which was no surprise after last week’s slew of rate cuts as the country battles Covid-19 and troubles in the property sector.
* USD (USDIndex 95.75) ticks higher .
* Equities – USA500 dis 4419 – USA500 and USA100 posted their biggest weekly drop since March 2020 last week.
* USOil – rebounce to $85.00 but holds below it.
* Gold – held on to gains topped at $1841 and holds at 7-week rally.
* Bitcoin under $35,000 handle – its lowest since July 2021.
* FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1326, USDJPY now 113.60 (The Japanese yen tends to benefit from safe haven flows as stocks crumble) & Cable eased to 1.3550, below 20-DMA.

European Open – GER40 and UK100 futures are posting slight gains, as are US futures, with tech stocks leading the way. Markets struggled overnight, but while European PMI readings this morning are likely to look similarly weak than data out of Japan and Australia overnight, in the current situation that also backs hopes of a cautious stance at central banks, as the FOMC announcement on Wednesday comes into view.

Today – Today’s local calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for Eurozone and U.K., which are expected to reflect the impact of virus measures on the services industry, especially in the Eurozone.Today’s schedule includes earnings from IBM, Southern Copper, Halliburton, Brown & Brown, Logitech, and Steel Dynamics. The data slate is light with December Chicago Fed national activity index, along with flash January Markit manufacturing and services PMIs. The Treasury auctions $54 bln of 2-year notes.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.41%) Topped to 1.8927 extending Friday’s gains. Currently settled to 1.8900 barrier. MAs flattened along with RSI, but MACD signal line & histogram hold higher, while Stochastic points lower. H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0111.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th January 2022.

Market update – January 25.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A flight out of equities and into the safety of bonds was the opening theme yesterday – Could we see this repeated?

US futures are under pressure once again, alongside a broad sell off across Asian equity markets. Tensions over the Ukraine, virus developments in China and the prospect of reduced central bank support all continued to weigh on sentiment overnight. The rise in Omicron cases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays and of course the Olympic Games is adding to nervousness over slowing growth.

* Australia’s inflation rate came in higher than expected, which added to growing conviction that the RBA will end its quantitative easing program at the February 1 meeting.
* Singapore surprised with a move to tighten policy outside of a scheduled review
* USD (USDIndex 95.90) pullback after breaching 96.11.
Treasury rates dove lower woth a strongly bid 2-year sale extending the slide. The just auctioned 2-year rate dropped 7 bps to hit 0.970%.
* Equities – Hang Seng and CEI 200 to drop more than -1.8% today. the Nikkei closed with a loss of -1.7%, the ASX plunged -2.5% after the hot inflation report. Yesterday, USA100 crashed -4.9%, with the broader indexes over -3% lower before hitting bottom and paring losses. But a late buy the dip rally saw the USA100 rally 0.63%, with the USA500 and USA30 up 0.29%.
* USOil – back to $82.00 territory – recovering some of the yesterday’s losses, as growing tension in Eastern Europe and the Middle East fuelled concerns over possible supply disruptions. Lower US oil inventories are also providing support.
* Gold – held on to gains at $1841 as investors sought safety.
* Bitcoin steadied to $35,000 handle
* FX markets – The Yen was supported as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped to 113.66. EURUSD at 1.1306 & Cable below 1.3500.

European Open – European stock futures signal a bounce back from yesterday’s sell off, with GER40 and UK100 currently posting gains of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. EGB yields are set to rise today, as stock markets bounce back from yesterday’s sell off. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.4 bp at -0.097% in early trade, the French 10-year up 1.3 bp, both underperforming versus Treasuries, which have moved higher overnight, as Asian stock markets sold off.

Today – The FOMC meeting starts today, with an announcement due tomorrow, ahead of ECB and BoE meetings in February. Geopolitical risks will remain in focus today, while the data calendar is highlighted by German Ifo readings and the UK CBI manufacturing survey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Cocoa (-3.22%) Huge dive to 2488 from 2684 highs seen last week, breaking all daily SMAs (20-, 50-, 200-day). Fast MAs alinged lower instraday with all momentum indicators pointing further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th January 2022.

Market update – January 26 – Central Banks Eyed.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It was a wild Tuesday in the lead up to today’s FOMC decision. Both bonds and stocks closed lower as the Fed is widely expected to outline a rate hike strategy with a 25 bp liftoff in March. Exaggerated fears of a 50 bp move and perhaps a string of 4 to 5 hikes this year have dissipated, though we suspect the markets are still positioned too bearishly. We expect the policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to be less hawkish than anticipated, hence setting the markets up for a bit of a relief rally.

So far today, Bonds have struggled, stocks hit the skids again in the US session but eased in the Asia session, and FX markets have remained in a narrow range as markets wait for the FOMC and BoC. Australia was on holiday, which made for somewhat lower volumes, but it was mainly the upcoming FOMC announcement that put a lid on markets. Ukraine tensions and speculation over gas supplies to Europe in case of an escalation of tensions with Russia are weighing on sentiment. UK PM Boris Johnson now has to answer the police over “partygate”, with calls for him to resign getting louder.

* USD (USDIndex 96) continues incline – 3rd day above 20-DMA.
* The 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.773%. The 10-year JGB rate is also slightly higher, but the 2-year paper found buyers as the BoJ summary shows commitment to loose policy. – The bank’s stance focused on providing stimulus to reach the 2% inflation goal.
* Treasury’s $55 bln 5-year auction was super strong.
* Equities – The USA100’s -3.18% drop paced the weakness, followed by a -2.8% loss on the USA500 and a -2.3% decline on the USA30. Today, Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.25% and -0.44%, GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.66% and 0.84% respectively, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.7% higher.
* Earnings: General Electric, beat on earnings, but missed on revenue, which weighed heavily while American Express provided upside support on solid earnings led by record credit card spending. Microsoft beats expectations with $18.8bn profit.
* Central banks clearly are getting nervous about the risk of second round effects, but the IMF’s growth downgrades yesterday also highlighted the risks from slowing momentum in China and virus developments.
* USOil – up to $84.60 – API data shows US crude stocks fall,Biden threatens sanctions on Putin over any invasion, markets await Fed update, US approves oil exchange from strategic reserve. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates base hosting the US military.
* Gold – down to $1844 from $1854.
* Bitcoin at $37,000 handle.
* FX markets – USDJPY steady at 113.95. EURUSD at 1.1295 & Cable at 1.3500.

European Open – Bund futures are under pressure, while US futures are moving higher, while in cash markets, the German 10-year Bund yield has lifted 0.4 bp to -0.08%. BTPs are supported though and spreads are coming in.

Today – Along with today’s BoC and FOMC result, the earnings calendar is heavy. Today’s slate features several biggies, including Tesla, Abbott Labs, Intel, AT&T, Boeing, Anthem, ServiceNow, ADP, Lam Research, Crown Castle, Norfolk Southern, Freeport-McMoran, Progressive, Kimberly-Clark, Amphenol, Ameriprise, Corning, Nasdaq, Hess, Teradyne, Seagate, United Rentals, Raymond James, and Teledyne. Data includes the December advance goods trade report.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF – Breaks 0.7300 (R1) from 0.7195 lows on Monday. Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd February 2022.

Market Update – February 3 – Stocks gain, FX awaits BoE & ECB.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets closed higher after a weak start (S&P500 +0.94%) Mixed PMI data, a huge miss (-301k) for ADP & record CPI (5.1%) in Europe hung on sentiment. Asia markets struggled too. Weak earnings from Meta, Spotify and a -24% decline for PayPal. USD & Yields consolidate, Oil holds on to gains & Gold holds over $1800. Biden ordered 3000 troops to Eastern Europe.

China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays.

* USD (USDIndex 96.10) up from 95.77 low, 96.00 remains a key level
* US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.766 & trades at 1.766%.
* Equities – USA500 +43 (+0.94%) 4589 – (PYPL -24.59%, GOOG +7.45%) USA500 FUTS slip 4538. META lost +20% after hours,
* USOil – Spiked over $88.00 on OPEC+ maintaining 400k/day output. Now $86.32 after inventory drawdown
* Gold – topped at $1810 back to $1802 now.
* Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,000
* FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1295 USDJPY up to 114.60 & Cable to 1.3550

Overnight – Japan Services PMI missed, Large rise in AUD Imports, & Building Approvals.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks at 168.72, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as risk aversion picks up again amid disappointing reports from tech bellwethers that weighed on stock market sentiment. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.4% and -0.3% and a -2.3% sell off in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower.

European markets closed mixed though yesterday, after another record setting inflation report for the Eurozone put pressure on the ECB ahead of today’s announcement.

Final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK are likely to highlight that virus developments continued to weigh on the sector at the start of the year, but officials are increasingly optimistic that economies will bounce back quickly from the most recent virus variant. Against that background, the spike in inflation is starting to look worrying, especially as labour markets continue to tighten.

The BoE is widely expected to deliver another rate hike today, while the ECB could well sound more hawkish than some expect.

Today – EZ, UK & US Services PMI, Weekly Initial Claims, Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, BoE & ECB Earnings Amazon, Eli Lilly, Biogen, ConocoPhillips, Penn, BT, Shell, Nokia, ING, Infineon.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%) Rallied from key 0.8380 to 0.8415 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but under 0 line, RSI 58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0059.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th February 2022.

Market Update – February 4 – Stocks & USD Tank, BoE & ECB Surprise.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets crushed into close; NASDAQ led the fall (-3.74%) after abysmal META (-26.39%) earnings. More mixed PMI data, and Hawkish surprises from BoE (25bps rise but more to come as 4 of 9 members wanted 50bps) & ECB (dovish statement but Hawkish Lagarde press conference – end of stimulus & rate hikes as early as September?). Asia markets higher following blockbuster AMZN (+15% after hours) earnings. USD tanked & Yields & Oil rallied & Gold holds over $1800. Biden: Russia plotting fake invasion pretext, US kills head of ISIS. Johnson: 4 top aids all resign in one day. Winter Olympics kick off. Putin expected to meet Xi.

China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays.

* USD (USDIndex 95.25) worst day in a long time – opened the week at 97.25, 96.00 now major resistance & 95.00 support.
* US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.827 & trades at 1.81%.
* Equities – USA500 -111 (-2.44%) 4477 – (FB -26.39%, AMZN -7%, but +15% after hours) USA500 FUTS recovered to 4518. SNAP (-23% on the day & then +59% after hours).
* USOil – Spiked over $89.00 and trades at $88.84 now.
* Gold – fell to $1788 back to $1807 now.
* Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,800
* FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1465 USDJPY up to 115.00 & Cable to 1.3580

Overnight – RBA Mins. repeats ‘prepared to be patient’ mantra, German Industrial Orders, much stronger than anticipated +2.8%.

European Open – Treasuries have recovered earlier losses, but Bunds and other Eurozone bond markets remain under pressure as stronger than expected German orders at the start of the session add to the arguments for a change of course in March, which judging by Lagarde’s comments clearly is on the agenda next month, when the updated set of staff projections are also available.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.7%. A 2.2% rise in the NASDAQ meanwhile is leading US futures higher.

Today – EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports. Earnings Carlsberg, Sanofi, Bristol-Myers, and AON.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.59%) Rallied from key 1.5800 Wednesday to over 1.6100 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI 80 & OB, H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th February 2022.

Market Update – February 7 – “Good news is good news” eventually.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A shockingly strong nonfarm payroll report knocked Treasuries for a loop. Global markets have been left reeling from the FOMC’s pivot, the BoE’s second rate hike and the aggressive voting pattern, as well as the hawkish shift from ECB Lagarde’s press conference. Wall Street turned mostly higher in afternoon trade. The market struggled early on following the stronger jobs report, which weighed on sentiment, in a case of good news is bad news for stocks (Fed rate hikes).

Treasury yields jumped on the data as the headlines more than surprised even the strongest forecast, and especially the whisper number which hinted at a -400k decline in jobs due to Omicron. The 0.7% surge in earnings to $31.63 m/m, a new all-time high, and a 5.7% y/y clip, the fastest since March 2020, added to Fed worries and increased the risk for a 50 bp rate liftoff in March and a faster string of hikes this year. Rates continued to cheapen through the afternoon as sell stops were tripped. Bearish options plays added to the selling, as did the advent of the $110 bln in auctions next week.

* China returns from a week-long Lunar New Year break.
* USD (USDIndex- 95.50)
* US Yields –The rally on Wall Street further pressured Treasuries, but with no one willing to step in front of this bear train, yields continued to climb and ended the week sharply higher. Now, the 2-year has cheapened almost 13 bps to 1.326%, while the 3-year was over 12 bps higher at 1.585%. The 10- and 30-year yield rose 10 bps and 8 bps respectively to 1.935% and 2.235%.
* Asian stock markets were under pressure overnight, with Japan’s tech sector in particular struggling. China bourses rallied in catch up trade, despite a drop in the Caixin General Services PMI to a 5-month low of 51.4, from 53.1 in December. Australia retail sales also dropped for the first time in four months.
* Equities– JPN225 is down -0.7%. The USA100 advanced 1.58%, with the USA50052% firmer, while the USA30 slid to a -0.06% loss. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.8% and 0.4% respectively.
* German industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in December, and was down -4.1% y/y in December. Production lifted 3.0% in 2021 compared to 2020, but was still down -5.5% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Clearly virus developments and supply chain disruptions continued to weigh on overall output, in particular in Germany’s important car industry.
* UK– Complicating the picture is a political crisis. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces anger over a series of missteps, not least the alcohol-fuelled parties held at Downing Street during coronavirus lockdowns. The coming days could bring more clarity on his future.
* USOil– Spiked to $92.00 – 7-year highs – amid fear of supply disruptions from a multitude of geopolitical flare-ups, above all, a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas, while US winter storms at a time of general underproduction are an added problem.
* Gold– back above 1800 to $1812.
* Bitcoin up to $42,708.
* FX markets– EUR is broadly lower this morning, but EURUSD is up to 1.1426, USDJPY up to 115.27 & Cable to 1.3538

European Open – EGBs have found buyers in early trade, with a weaker than expected German production number at the start of the session adding some support. The short end continues to underperform as investors adjust their central bank outlooks, with those caught wrong-footed by Lagarde last week now risking overcorrecting expectations, and it may take some time before there is a new equilibrium. We still think Q4 is the most likely timing for a first move – in December, if inflation pressures calm somewhat, or October, if Covid-19 restrictions fade faster than anticipated and the tensions with Russia over Ukraine ease quickly.

Today – Company reports and central bank outlooks remain in focus at the start of the week, but for now confidence seems to be holding up. Today’s slate has just US December consumer credit. Earnings include Amgen, Southern Copper, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, ON Semi, Zimmer Biomet, Principal Financial, Take-Two Interactive, Loews Corp., Hasbro, and CNA Financial. There is Fedspeak later in the week with Bowman, Mester, and Barkin. Data includes trade, the NFIB small business survey, claims, and consumer sentiment.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.44%) Dip to 1.4525 before rebounding again in EU open at 1.4568. Fast MAs turned higher again but MACD and RSI remain close to zero.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.