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Date : 4th May 2023.

Market Update – May 4 – Renewed Anxiety.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Japan and China bourses were closed for holidays and elsewhere markets were still rattled by the drop in Wall Street and fresh jitters at US regional banks. Asian stocks declined while US futures steadied on Wednesday as markets wait for the Fed announcement. Lingering concern over the health of the financial system should add to the arguments of the cautious camps at central banks, but policy sensitive short term bonds are underperforming this morning. Treasuries are holding a strong haven bid on worries over the regional banking sector. The sentiment is mixed by recent data suggesting an economic slowdown, including the lowest number of job openings in almost two years.

FOMC Preview: FOMC began its 2-day meeting and will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A 25 bp increase is well anticipated. With no new SEP forecasts to guide the outlook, the focus will be on the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. We do not expect any explicit forward guidance as the Fed will want to maintain optionality and leave all doors open. However, we do look for him to continue to push back against rate cut expectations. Implied Fed funds futures have slid lower, along with the drop in Treasury yields, amid heightened concerns over regional banks, and after weaker than expected data.

*FX – USDIndex has corrected to 101.30 while the Yen is picking up haven bids. The EURUSD is also back above the 1.103 mark ahead of the Fed announcement today and the ECB meeting tomorrow.
*Stocks – Hang Seng and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.96% respectively, although European and US Futures are higher. The US500 lost -1.16% while the US30 and US100 declined –1.08%. Jitters increased even after JPMorgan’s purchase of beleaguered First Republic Bank provided some stability Monday. But that did not hold as PacWest and Western Alliance were in the spotlight, dropping -42% and -27%, respectively, on investor angst. That saw the KBW bank index drop -4.4%. Nearly every sector in S&P was in the red.



*Commodities – USOil plunged by -5% to $71.50 as markets priced in expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and Europe and waited for clarity on future policy path.
*Gold – Spiked to $2018.

Today - US ADP, ISM Services and Fed announcement.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-5%) drifted to 71.29 from 76 area. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line are way below 0, Stochastics is slipping. ATR(H1) at 0.20 & ATR(D) at 2.26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th May 2023.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Even if some of the Central Banks chaos are out of the way for now, jitters over regional banks continued to spread with PacWest, First Horizon, hit hard Western Alliance. Inflation concerns and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate next week. Focal points will be the BOE rate decision and US Inflation.


Monday – 08 May 2023
[b]BOJ Minutes (USD, GMT 23:50)[b] – The BOJ minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further accomodative policy.

[b]Tuesday – 09 May 2023[b]
[b]Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00)[b] – Chinese Trade Balance for April is expected to grow by 74.30 bln from 88.19 bln.

[b]Wednesday – 10 May 2023[b]

[b]Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30)[b] – The US inflation figures are forecasted to grow by 0.4% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in April, after respective March gains of 0.1% and 0.4%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to climb 2% in April. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected March CPI figures would result in a steady y/y headline rise from 5.0%in March, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 5.4% from 5.6% in March, versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September.

[b]Thursday – 11 May 2023[b]

[b]Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30)[b] Chinese inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise y/y from 0.7% to 1.0%. Producer Price Index y/y is likely to decrease to -2.5%.
[b]Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00)[b] – Markets speculate that the BoE will be forced to continue hiking rates for longer than ECB and Fed. Markets are speculating that the Fed may be forced to start to cut rates in the second half of the year, while the ECB is expected to deliver two more rate hikes, which means peak rates are coming into sight. The BoE is also set to hike again next week and given that inflation remains in double digits, it will likely keep the door open to additional tightening steps, with markets seeing further hikes down the line.
[b]Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30)[b] – The April PPI could gain of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, after respective figures of -0.5% and -0.1% in March. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 2.5% from 3.2%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 3.2% from 3.4%, versus an all-time high 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation should fall sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons become much easier.

[b]Friday – 12 May 2023[b]

[b]Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00)[b] – GDP for Q1 is expected at -0.% y/y and headline at 0.5% q/q.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th May 2023.

Market Update – May 8 – Sentiment Firming; A Cooler USD & Rising Stocks.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues under pressure (USDIndex 100.88) after a monumental week saw the FED & ECB’s 25 bp hikes (could it be the last from the FED?), another US bank failure, a jobs report beat, (253k vs 181k) and better than expected earnings, especially, from the biggest of all companies – Apple. Stocks rallied on Friday, and have followed through in Asia today, Yields cooled again with the AUD and NZD outperforming. The UK and France are closed on quiet data day. Berkshire Hathaway announced $35.5bn profits
Week Ahead Topped by US CPI data (Wednesday) and the BOE Rate Decision (Thursday).

*FX–USDIndex continues to be biased lower, from 101.50 highs on Friday back to test support from last week at 100.88, EUR tested 1.0970 lows on Friday but recovered 1.1000 to trade at 1.1033 now. JPY rallied from 134.00, breached 135.00 but trades at 134.70 now. Sterling holds over the key break of 1.2500 last week, breached 1.2600 on Friday and is testing 1.2650 now.
*Stocks-US markets closed strongly (+1.65% to 2.25%) (#APPL +4.69%%, #TSLA +5.50%) – US500 closed +1.65% 4136, FUTS are trading at 4147 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures hold onto Friday gains and trade at $71.70 as recession fears still swirl, but up from the breach of the 18-mth low at $64.00 last week. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but is up to $2020 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC has tumbled over 5% from Friday highs over $29.6k to test $28.0k once again, today.

Today – German Industrial Output (missed -3.4% vs +2.1%) , EZ Sentix, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, NY SCE, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Speech from ECB’s Lane, Earnings from PayPal.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 0.6700 to 0.6780 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 72.45, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00096 Daily ATR 0.00621.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th May 2023.

Market Update – May 9 – Calm Ahead of US CPI Tomorrow.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD ticked higher (USDIndex 101.21), with tight credit markets and business loans weak but not as bad as expected. US Stocks closed flat and Asia is subdued with little data ahead of US CPI tomorrow. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE later in the week. LinkedIn announced 700 job losses and will close China app. Ueda – YCC will end when price goal achievement “foreseen”. AUD & JPY higher, EUR weighed to start the European session.
Overnight – Chinese trade balance data exceeded expectations, Japanese household spending missed significantly and a key UK Retail Sales survey beat.

*FX – USDIndex once again found support at 100.88, currently holds over 101.00, EUR has pushed under 1.1000 from 1.1050 yesterday. JPY slips below 135.00 from a technical intra-day resistance at 135.34 earlier. Sterling declined from 1-year highs at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today.
*Stocks- US markets closed flat (-0.17% to 0.18%) (#TSN -16.41%, #AMD +5.79%) – US500 closed +2 pts 4138, FUTS are trading at 4148 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures added to Friday’s gains and touched $73.50 and trades at $72.60 today. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but held $2020 yesterday, trades at $2025 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC tumbled over 5.5% from Friday highs over $29.6k under the key $28k support level, and tested into $27k as BINANCE twice stalled withdraws over the weekend. Trades at $27.4k now.

Today – Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Williams & Jefferson. Earnings from Daimler Truck, Ubisoft, Direct Line, Airbnb & Occidental Petroleum.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.29%). Has broken a 3-day rally from 83.50 to 85.85 yesterday and is back at 85.30 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 44.21 & falling, H1 ATR 0.140 Daily ATR 0.00621.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th May 2023.

Market Update – May 10 – Inflation Day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD pullback slightly to 101.30 floor ahead of CPI today. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street lower, European and US futures are posting modest gains as investors wait for key reports. Treasury & Bund yields are up after final German inflation data at the start of the session was confirmed at 7.6% y/y that underlying inflation pressures remain too high. Coupled with hawkish comments from ECB officials that is leaving the ECB on course to hike rates again in June. Oil prices are slightly lower at $73.03 per barrel.
First Citizens and Flagstar, which bought the remnants of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, reported record profits up to $80bn in Q1 despite turmoil.

*FX – USDIndex was at 101.61, currently pull back to the 101.30. EUR sightly higher at 1.0976. JPY up for a 4th day 135.46. Sterling lifted to 1.2630 on EU open.
*Stocks – Wall Street was weaker on the day and closed with small losses. The US100 was down -0.63%, with the US500 down -0.46%, and the US30 off -0.17%. #Novavax +27.79% posted positive results from a trial of flu and COVID vaccines and says it’s cutting a quarter of its workforce. #AMC +5.43%, #Harmonic +20.03% after the maker of fiber-optic and other telecommunications systems topped Wall Street expectations for its quarterly earnings. #PayPal -12.73% as its 2023 GAAP EPS guidance, of about $3.42, was beneath the $3.46 in a FactSet-compiled analyst view.



*Commodities – USOil – slightly lower at 73.11 after weekly inventories showed an increase in stockpiles ahead to inflation figures that will influence the Fed’s monetary policy. Gold – corrected to $2026.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC hoovering around 50-day SMA, i.e. $27200

Today – US Inflation & Monthly Budget Statement.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR(+1%). Has breached 18.83 level. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive, RSI 85 & flattening, H1 ATR 0.03216 Daily ATR 0.2093.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th May 2023.

Market Update – May 11 – BOE & Sterling In Focus Following US CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex tanked to 101.00 following the cooler CPI reading yesterday and remains pressured as yields also tick lower following gains yesterday. US Stocks closed mixed and Asian markets are broadly higher. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE front and centre today. NZD outperforms in Asian trading. Disney earnings disappointed (Disney+ subscriptions in particular) and shares fell -4.5% after hours. Chinese CPI data fell again (0.1% vs 0.7%) and PPI data worsened and remained deflationary and in contraction (-3.6% vs. -2.5%).

Overnight – Japanese bank lending ticked higher as the BOJ continued to send the same mixed signals. Yellen opened the G7 meeting saying that a US debt impasse threatens US global leadership, and a default would produce economic, financial ‘catastrophe’ .


*FX – USDIndex declined from 101.50 resistance to 101.00, after US CPI broke below 5% for the first time since May 2021. Trades at 101.30) now. EUR tested and rejected 1.1000 again and trades at 1.0970. JPY slipped from 135.50 below 134.00, before recovering to 134.20 now. Sterling tested and declined from 1-year highs, again, at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today ahead of the expected 25 bp interest rate hike from the BOE.

*Stocks- US markets closed mixed (-0.09% to +1.04%) with the NASDAQ leading. (GOOGL +4.10%, AMZN +3.35% & #AXP -3.06%, #PYPL -3.83%) – US500 closed +18pts 4137, FUTS are trading at 4161 today mid-way between key resistance at 4175 & 4150.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested over $73.75 and hold $73.00 today. Gold – spiked to $2050 again, reverted to $2020 support and trades at $2030 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered the key $28k, dipped to test $26.75k lows & trades at $27.5k now.

Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, BOE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%). Continued to rally from the breach of 0.5600 on Monday to 0.5675 highs today, next resistance 0.5700. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00083, Daily ATR 0.00517.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd May 2023.

Market Update – May 22 – US Debt Ceiling Issues Focuses Minds & Markets.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex tanked to 101.00 following the cooler CPI reading yesterday and remains pressured as yields also tick lower following gains yesterday. US Stocks closed mixed and Asian markets are broadly higher. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE front and centre today. NZD outperforms in Asian trading. Disney earnings disappointed (Disney+ subscriptions in particular) and shares fell -4.5% after hours. Chinese CPI data fell again (0.1% vs 0.7%) and PPI data worsened and remained deflationary and in contraction (-3.6% vs. -2.5%).

Overnight – Japanese bank lending ticked higher as the BOJ continued to send the same mixed signals. Yellen opened the G7 meeting saying that a US debt impasse threatens US global leadership, and a default would produce economic, financial ‘catastrophe’ .


*FX – USDIndex declined from 101.50 resistance to 101.00, after US CPI broke below 5% for the first time since May 2021. Trades at 101.30) now. EUR tested and rejected 1.1000 again and trades at 1.0970. JPY slipped from 135.50 below 134.00, before recovering to 134.20 now. Sterling tested and declined from 1-year highs, again, at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today ahead of the expected 25 bp interest rate hike from the BOE.

*Stocks- US markets closed mixed (-0.09% to +1.04%) with the NASDAQ leading. (GOOGL +4.10%, AMZN +3.35% & #AXP -3.06%, #PYPL -3.83%) – US500 closed +18pts 4137, FUTS are trading at 4161 today mid-way between key resistance at 4175 & 4150.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures tested over $73.75 and hold $73.00 today. Gold – spiked to $2050 again, reverted to $2020 support and trades at $2030 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered the key $28k, dipped to test $26.75k lows & trades at $27.5k now.

Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, BOE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%). Continued to rally from the breach of 0.5600 on Monday to 0.5675 highs today, next resistance 0.5700. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00083, Daily ATR 0.00517.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th May 2023.

Market Update – May 24 – NZD Roiled, Sterling in Focus.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex moved up to 103.50 on safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks made little progress, with no new talks scheduled & no deal in view. US stocks lost over -1% and Yields also cooled as Treasuries got a lift. Global PMIs showed weakness but US Services were remarkably robust. Overnight the NZD tanked (-1.45%) as the RBNZ raised rates by 25 bp but signalled the end of the hike cycle. Asian stocks also fell, particularly in mainland China. Saudi Arabia warning speculators on the future of production and prices.
Overnight – GBP Inflation Dump – consumer prices hotter than expected, 8.7% vs 8.2% & 10.1% prior, CORE increases to 6.8% from 6.2% and RPI 11.4% vs. 11.1% from 13.5%. PPI shrunk to 6.0% from 8.3%.

*FX – USDIndex spiked to 103.50, back to 103.30 now but holds the bid for a 10th day. EUR tested into 1.0760 again and holds below 1.0800 at 1.0785. JPY breached & holds 138.50, topping at 138.85 (high from November 2022) once again and holds back at 138.50 now. Cable spiked to 1.2466 following the inflation & retail sales data. The pair is back to 1.2450 now up from 1.2375 lows on Tuesday.
*Stocks – US markets closed much lower (-0.69% to -1.26%). TSLA -1.64%, APPL -1.52%, GOOGL -2.00%, MSFT –1.84%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -47.05 pts at 4145, FUTS are trading at 4155, below the key resistance at 4175.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied from $70.70 again yesterday and spiked to test the $74.00 zone following hawkish comments from Saudi Arabia regarding further output cuts. Gold – has moved back to the $1975 level, once again finding buyers at the key $1950 zone.
*Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test $27.5k (21-day EMA) yesterday before rejecting the area and moving to $26.75k now.

Today – German Ifo, FOMC Minutes (May), Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde & Fed’s Waller.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+2.05%). From Monday’s test of 1.9775 lows the pair has rallied over 2.0250 following the RBNZ. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 92.00 very OB & flat, H1 ATR 0.00476, Daily ATR 0.0161.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th May 2023.

Market Update – May 25 – USD & Yields at 2-month highs, Stocks weak, Nvidia blockbuster.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex moved up to breach 104.00 on more safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks continued to grind on and FOMC minutes showed a division on the need for more rate hikes. US stocks lost over -0.6% & and are lower in Asia, NASDAQ FUTS buck the trend at +1.3% as NVIDIA reported massive demand for AI chips (shares were +24% after market close). Yields rallied, supporting the USD as 2-yr yields breached 4.4%. Overnight, the US credit agency FITCH has put the United States’ AAA long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on negative watch due to brinkmanship over the debt ceiling.
Overnight – German GDP – misses at -0.3% vs. 0.0% and the GfK Consumer Climate also missed at -24.2 vs. -23.6.

*FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.00, a 2-month high and up from 100.73 lows on May 4. A stronger Dollar weighs on EUR which has tested down under 1.0730 lows today. JPY breached & holds 139.50, topping at 139.65 (a new 25-week high). Cable slipped again to 1.2330 lows today, over 130 pips lower from yesterday’s top, but has now recovered the 1.2350 handle.
*Stocks – US markets closed lower again (-0.61% to -0.77%). NVDA -0.49% (+24% after the market close), ANF +31%, Urban Outfitters -+17.59%, Citi -3.0% TGT –2.76%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -30.34 pts at 4115, FUTS are trading at 4149, below the key resistance at 4175.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures hold over the $74.00 zone following inventories which showed a huge drawdown of 12.5 million barrels vs expectations of a 1.9 million barrel build, on top of vague Saudi output cut threats. Gold – has moved back to the $1960 level, once again, having rejected a rally to $1980 and the 200-hr moving average.
*Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k earlier, down from $27.3k highs yesterday, currently the $27k handle has been recovered and the pair trade around $27.2k.

Today – US Weekly Claims, GDP (2nd reading), PCE Prices (Prelim.) CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, Wunsch, Makhlouf & Vujcic, Fed’s Barkin & Collins.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100.F (+1.41%) Following Nvidia Earnings the FUTS has rallied from under 13,600 low’s yesterday to 13,866 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.20 & rising, H1 ATR 52.71, Daily ATR 0.0161.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th May 2023.

Market Update – May 26 – 2-year Debt Ceiling Deal Approaching?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex holds the breach of 104.00 on news the US debt ceiling talks are progressing and a 2-year deal is possible. Strong US data yesterday also added to pressure on the FED to hike at least one more time. Susan Collins from the Boston Fed, suggested that a pause in June “may be appropriate”. Stocks were mixed, NASDAQ (+1.71%) lifted by a record +24% advance for Nvidia. Yields also rallied, with short end of the curve at 10-week highs as the 2-yr yield holds over 4.5%. Overnight, the Yen remains weighed and the Nikkei 225 outperformed following inflation data and news that the BOJ is likely to maintain the YCC until “at least next year”.

Overnight – Japan – Tokyo CPI missed at 3.2% vs. 3.4% but remains much stronger than at any time in recent history, also PPI came in higher than expected at 1.6% vs 1.4%. AUD – Retail Sales added to the weak data this week missing at 0.0% vs. 0.4%, UK – Retail Sales beat (0.5% vs 0.3%) but last months data was revised lower to -1.2% from 0.9%.

*FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.22, another new 2-month high. A stronger USD continues to weigh on EUR which tested down to the 1.0700 zone yesterday, trades at 1.0730 now. JPY breached 140.00 & still holds over 139.50 at 139.65 now. Cable slipped again to 1.2310 lows yesterday, recovering a little to the 1.2350 handle.
*Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day and closed that way. (-0.11% to +1.71%). NVDA +24.37%, MRVL +7.6%, DLTR -12.00%. US500 (+0.88%) closed 36.34 pts at 4151, FUTS are trading at 4159, and a third day below the key resistance at 4175.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.00 zone from $74.25 following mixed news regarding Saudi output cut threats. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, tbut has since recovered to the key $1950 handle.
*Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k yesterday and remain capped at $26.5k today as USD strength persists.

Today – Core PCE Price Index, Core Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.24%) Following a strong rally to 140.22 giving back some gains today. MA’s aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but slipping, RSI 48.17 & neural, H1 ATR 0.152, Daily ATR 1.096.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.