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Date : 2nd December 2022.

Market Update – December 2 – USD holds at lows & Stocks at Highs Ahead of NFP.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index holds at lows not seen since August & June at 104.50 and significantly below the 200-day MA at 105.40. Weaker PCE inflation, lower JOLTS numbers, but tempered by a miss for Weekly Claims all added to pressure for yields too. 2/10 yr remains inverted by 71 bps. Stocks finished flat, Asian markets also flat except Nikkei (-1.59%) as JPY soars. All eyes on NFP; Consensus is a headline of 200k, less than 120k-150k and the USD could slip further, over 250-300k could lift the Greenback.
*EUR – broke over key psychological 1.0500 and holds at 5-mth highs at 1.0530 now.
*JPY – collapsed to under 135.00 today and trades at 134.60 from 139.85 on Wednesday, hitting Japanese stocks.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again to breach 1.2300, briefly and post 5-month highs. Trades at 1.2260 now.
*Stocks – Wall Street held on to Wednesday’s gains closing flat – US500 -3.54 (-0.09%) 4076, Big movers included losses for CRM -8.27%, COST -6.56%, Blackstone -7.06%. FUTS trades at 4076 now too.



*USOil – Rallied again (4 consecutive days) to breach $83.00 before cooling to $81.25 now. OPEC meet over weekend and into Monday possibly
*Gold – Rallied to and broke the key $1800 and holds at $1802 now.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but a weaker USD means it holds at 17k.

Today – US & Canadian Jobs Reports, EZ Producer Prices, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & de Guindos, Fed’s Barkin & Evans.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%) rallied again to test 0.6400 today from 0.6300 yesterday and lows on Monday at 0.6150. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 69.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.0083.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th December 2022.

Market Update – December 5 – Dollar slips, Gold hovers around $1800.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex back to 104 area for the 1st time since June, Global Stocks are up on the hopes of reopening of China ignoring the strength in the headline payroll gains and the pick up in earnings. USDINDEX down by 1.4% last week and 5% in November. (worst month since 2010)
*Yuan surge to its strongests levels since September as. China’s zero Covid pivot accelerates – announcing an easing of coronavirus curbs over the weekend as China tries to soften its stance on COVID-19 restrictions in the wake of unprecedented protests against the policy.
*Wall Street banks weighs 30% bonus cuts.
*Stocks boosted. The Hang Seng rallied more than 4%, the CSI 300 nearly 2%. Nikkei and ASX underperformed, but also managed fractional gains. GER40 and UK100 are little changed though and US futures slightly lower, as markets weigh the impact of China’s move on economies and central bank moves elsewhere. The US 10-year rate is up 5.4 bp at 3.54% at the moment, and the 10-year Bund rate is up 2.9 bp at 1.87%.
*Europe: The beginning of the G7’s $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil. Russia Rejects as it was expected!
*USOil – settled lower at $80.30 as Russia rejects EU cap. Jumped initially at $81.90 as China reopening would eventually brighten the outlook for global growth and commodity demand. OPEC+ left their quotas for oil production unchanged.
*JPY holds below 200-DMA, below $135.
*EUR – peaks to 1.0583 and GBP for a 3rd day above 200-DMA, at 1.2345.
*Gold – is hovering around $1800.

Today – Attention on US ISM services survey, European retail sales data today and Central bank meetings in Canada and Australia later in the week.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.25%), jumps at 86.70 extending above all MAs. 5- and 9- EMAs aligning higher, RSI at 62 and MACD histogram & signal line rising above 0. H1 ATR 0.199, Daily ATR 0.889.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th December 2022.

Market Update – December 6 – USD Rallies, Stocks off Highs, RBA Add 25 bp in Hawkish hike.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index has climbed to 105.39 but off its 200-DMA following the stronger than data, including the ISM services and Factory orders reports that also showed still elevated price levels. The less hawkish Fed views & uncertainty over rate path adds a ceiling on USD. Treasury yields extended higher, Stocks under pressure as data add to the impacts from Friday’s jobs report to reinforce the FOMC’s view that it will have to maintain a more restrictive policy stance for some time.
*The curve inversion deepened to -80 bps, not seen since 1981.The belly of the curve continues to lead the weakness in Treasuries with the 3-year yield up 15 bps to 4.129%. The 10-year is 11.7 bps higher at 3.603%.
*AUD – ranging at 0.6720-0.6735 following 25 bps hike from RBA and a prediction of further hikes ahead.
*EUR – pullback to 1.0484 from 1.0590 yesterday. German manufacturing orders stronger than expected but failed to boost EUR.
J*PY – jumped to 137.30.
*GBP – dip to 1.2160 from 1.2345.
*Stocks – US100 closed with a -1.93% decline, with the US500 off -1.79% and the US30 -1.40% in the red. The declines saw the US500 drop back below 4,000, with the US30 under 34,000.



*USOil – The January WTI crude slipped -3.8% to $76.93 on concerns Fed tightening will weaken demand. There was little impact as the EU price cap went into effect.
*Gold – reverts to $1770 from $1809 highs, as the USD backed up from early lows amid US data releases. Bullion failed to close above $1800.

Today – US Goods & Services Trade Balance and Canadian Ivey PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.69%) turned above 200-DMA. MAs flattened indicating the end of the uptrend, MACD signal line is at 0, RSI 62.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.178, Daily ATR 0.998.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th December 2022.

Oil Drops Hit the Loonie, Ahead of BOC Interest Rates!


USDCAD,D1
The USDCAD exchange rate strengthened after a relatively hawkish Fed, which is likely to push interest rates above 5% in 2023, following a series of strong economic data from the US. On Friday, data showed that the US economy added more than 263K jobs in November, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. Wages jumped 5.2% even as tech companies lost thousands of jobs. And on Monday, data showed that the non-manufacturing PMI spiked in November.

The BOC will hold its 8th and final rate setting meeting for 2022 today (December 7), a week before the Fed and ECB meetings on December 14 and 15 respectively. The rate decision will be announced at 15:00 GMT with a press conference by Governor Macklem at 16:00 GMT. This will be the biggest catalyst for the movement of USDCAD. The market predicts that the central bank will raise interest rates by 0.50% to 4.25%. This decision was taken at a time when Canadian inflation was still high. According to Statcan, the country’s annual inflation rose to 6.9% in October due to rising gasoline and mortgage prices.

Crucially, the BOC’s decision comes at a time when Canada’s yield curve has fallen to its lowest level since the 1980s. The spread between 10 and 2 year bonds rose to 100 basis points, signaling that the economy was headed for a major recession. Hence, the BOC is likely to deliver a dovish rate hike. Since the October meeting, data releases have been on the positive side. GDP growth surprisingly reversed in Q3 with an annualized rate of 2.9% q/q, while the latest inflation figures show signs of stabilizing at what could be called a very high level. Meanwhile, labor market data came in stronger than anticipated for October, but retail sales for September painted a bleaker picture.

Technical Analysis

The recent weakening of the Canadian Dollar has been distorted by the decline in world crude oil prices. Currently, USDCAD is trading at 1.3655, strengthening by 1.5% this week. The price is above the 26-day exponential moving average and is trying to catch up to the price on the resistance’s right shoulder at 1.3807. The RSI is above the 50 level, the MACD histogram is just shy of crossing the zero line. On the downside, the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern will still function as minor support at 1.3502.


USDCAD, H8

Intraday bias remains neutral, while with immediate focus on the 1.3807 resistance, a strong break there would confirm the case that correction from 1.3976 has been completed at 1.3225. Further gains should be seen to the head of 1.3976. On the downside, a follow-through break of 1.3225 could see a second attempt to reverse the trend towards the 1.3000 round figure. The RSI at 66 is of course not saturated yet while MACD is still in the buy zone, trying to thwart the head and shoulder pattern that has been formed. Further movement will be influenced by the BOC interest rate decision as well as statements from Bank officials.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th December 2022.

Market Update – December 9 – Stocks Recover, USD Weaker, PPI Data Ahead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index is down at 104.55 for a 3rd day in a row. Wall Street rebounded with the US500 +0.75% (3963) gain breaking a string of five straight losses. Treasury yields rose slightly following the deceleration in unit labour costs & rise in jobless claims. However, the 2/10yr yields are still shouting Recession – the curve remains -83bps. China confirms weak activity once again (Nov. CPI -0.2% m/m from 0.1% m/m). UK regulators fine Santander £107mn for anti-money laundering failures
*The US is set to levy fresh sanctions against Russia and China.
*EUR – retests 1.0600 amid USD weakness and trades at 1.0575 now.
*JPY – slight pull back over 136.00, to 136.30 from 135.80 lows.
*GBP – holds over 1.2200, and trades at 1.2260. Monday’s high touched 1.2345. The UK Chancellor Hunt is to announce plans to relax regulation for UK’s financial services sector, rolling back 2008 rules.
*Stocks – Dip buying and short covering helped the rally and sentiment along with signs China is moving further to ease covid restrictions. JPN225 surged 1.2% and Hang Seng index rose by 1.6% as China’s Premier stated that the shift in COVID policy would allow the economy to pick up pace. The US100 climbed 1.13% and the US30 was up 0.55%, while the rise in jobless claims yesterday (230k) helped limit the selloff, though rates were still cheaper at the end of the session.
*The US Federal Trade Commission blocks the biggest ever gaming industry deal. FTC sued Microsoft Corp MSFT +1.24% to block its planned $75 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc ATVI -1.54%



*USOil – holds at 1-year lows, below $72.00 at $71.70. USOil found some slight support (a rally to $75.00) after news that the Keystone pipeline in the US was shut down after more than 14,000 barrels of crude oil spilled into a creek in Kansas.
*Gold – extends to $1795 – 4th bullish day away from 200-day SMA.

Today – Caution prevails ahead of today’s PPI and consumer sentiment data, and next week’s CPI, and then the FOMC on Wednesday.



The recent weakening of the Canadian Dollar has been distorted by the decline in world crude oil prices. Currently, USDCAD is trading at 1.3655, strengthening by 1.5% this week. The price is above the 26-day exponential moving average and is trying to catch up to the price on the resistance’s right shoulder at 1.3807. The RSI is above the 50 level, the MACD histogram is just shy of crossing the zero line. On the downside, the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern will still function as minor support at 1.3502.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.41%). MAs aligned lower indicating the continuation of the downtrend, MACD lines are negatively configured, RSI 31 but flat, H1 ATR 0.00113, Daily ATR 0.00872.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th December 2022.

Market Update – December 12 – USD lifts, Stocks Slip Ahead of a Key Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index holds at 105.00 from lows on Friday at 104.50, following hot PPI data and strong consumer sentiment. Stocks fell into close on Friday (Dow the weakest -0.9%) and down 2.85-4.0% last week (Nasdaq weakest) threatening the Santa Rally. Yields rallied over 2% on Friday, 10yr closed at 3.567% trades at 3.55% today. Asian markets & European FUTS are also lower as Chinese Covid infections rise as restrictions are eased. BIG week ahead.

Week Ahead – US CPI and the FOMC dominate matters but 10 other Central Banks update markets this week including ECB and BOE. 50 bp hike from the FED now at 77% from Fed Funds Futures, following Friday’s data.

*EUR – tested the 1.0600 zone on Friday – trades down at 1.0530 now.
*JPY – rallied from post PPI low at 135.60 on Friday to test 137.00 again today.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again to breach 1.2300, briefly and post 5-month highs on Friday. Trades at 1.2228 now.
*Stocks – Wall Street dived on Friday – US500 -29.13 (-0.73%) 3934, Big movers included LULU -12.85%, COIN -6.00%, & TSLA +3.23%, NFLX +3.14%. FUTS trades at 3933 now too.



*USOil – Slipped to new 12-month+ lows at $70.05 on Friday on a weak global outlook, trades at $71.40 now.
*Gold – Rallied to and broke the key $1800 again, but could not hold it. Trades at $1788 support now.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue, rallied to $17.3k on Friday but trades below 17k today at 16.9K

Today – UK GDP (m/m) beats (0.5% vs. 0.4%) & better Production data. UK NIESR – Speech from BOC’s Macklem.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.47%) rallied from post PPI low at 135.60 on Friday to test 137.00 again today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 58.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.196, Daily ATR 1.783.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th December 2022.

Market Update – December 13 – Markets Await US CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index holds under 105.00, currently at 104.80 as the USD consolidates ahead of today’s CPI data. US Stocks rallied on Monday (Dow the strongest +1.58%). Yields rallied over 1.23% with the 10yr closing at and holds today at 3.611%. Asian markets mixed & European FUTS are also lower as Chinese Covid infections continue to rise. Former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried has been in the Bahamas at the “behest of U.S. prosecutors” a day before he was due to testify to Congress. Reuters also reported that Binance is under investigation for possible money laundering and criminal sanctions violations by DOJ, with possible proceedings against executives including CEO Zhao.
*EUR – rotates over 1.0500 at 1.0560 now, ahead of German ZEW data later and ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – rallied from 136.50 lows over 137.00 and trades at 137.70 today.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again to test 1.2300, consistently yesterday, but trades at 1.2285 following mixed UK jobs data and as multiple strikes hit the UK.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied yesterday (1.26-1.58%) – US500 +56.18 (+1.43%) 3990, Big movers included MRNA -6.89%, TSLA -6.27%, MSFT +2.89%. FUTS trades at 3997 now.



*USOil – SRallied over 6% from 12-month+ lows at $70.05 again on Monday to trade at $74.30 now on supply concerns.
*Gold – Declined to $1780 again, from key support at $1788.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but talk of “rapid rollout of global crypto standards” led by FSB keeps trades over 17k at 17.1k.

Today – UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US CPI, Japanese Tankan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.53%) rallied from lows on Monday at 0.6728 to test 0.6775 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising and testing 0 line. RSI 58.10 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00129, Daily ATR 0.00845.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th December 2022.

Market Update – December 14 – FOMC Day after Inflation weakens again.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index dived to a six-month low of 103.50, from 105.00 following the cooler CPI data and trades at 104.00 now. US Stocks rallied on open as high as +3.85% but lost most of their gains by close (+0.30-1.01%). Yields tanked (10-yr lost 11 bp) as Treasuries rallied but closed at 3.501%. Commodities rallied (Gold & Copper hit 6-mth highs and Asian markets remain bid and the USD down 1.5% vs Yen, and 6-mth lows vs Euro, Sterling & Kiwi and 3-mths lows vs. Aussie. BTC spiked to 18k before, news that Binance withdrawals had hit $1.9 bln in 24 hours.
UK CPI also weakens (10.7% vs 10.9% & 11.1% last month) more than expected but the wider RPI (which is what many wage settlements use and a cause of the wide spread strike action) dipped but was hotter than expected at 14%.
*EUR – rotates over 1.0600 at 1.0625 now, ahead of ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – sank to 134.60 lows from over 137.70 yesterday and 150.00 in late October. Strong Tankan data and Machinery Orders help JPY strength.
*GBP – Sterling rallied over 1.2400, and traes at 1.2350 following good Inflation data and ahead of an expected 50 bp rate hike from the BoE tomorrow.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied closed higher again yesterday but gave up most of their opening gains. – US500 +29 (+0.73%) 4019, and retakes 4000. Big movers included MRNA +19.63%, META +4.74%, GooG & AMZN +2.5%. FUTS trades at 4029 now.





*USOil – Rallied to $76.00 and trades at the key $75.00 now after a surprise build in US crude inventories against forecasts of a decline.
*Gold – Spiked as high as $1824.45 and trades at $1808. Can the $1800 handle hold?
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue from Binance & SBF but the weaker USD saw a peak over $18k, before a crash to 17.3k and bounce to 17.7k now. More FTX collapse fallout – Canada bans crypto leverage, crypto margin trading.

Today – “nothing else matters” FOMC Policy Decision & Press Conference. Before that – EZ Ind. Prod., US Export/Import Prices, NZD GDP. Speech from ECB’s Elderson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.37%) fell from highs over 88.00 yesterday to test the 87.00 tzone today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 38.10 & falling, H1 ATR 0.163, Daily ATR 0.879.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th December 2022.

Market Update – December 15 – FED: Inflation Remains Public Enemy No. 1.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The FED, as expected, announced a 50 bp increase in the federal funds rate to place it in a target range of 4.25%-4.50% (the highest level in 15 years – since 2007). Powell pointed out that “We have more work to do” and that “there is a long way to go” expecting “continued increases”. The first is expected to be 25bp in February, which “will depend on incoming data” and from there the pace will be set taking into account “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy”. 17 of 19 members expect the terminal rate to be over 5.1% during 2023, and “there are no rate cuts in the projections for 2023” and that there will not be until the Fed “has full confidence that inflation is continually falling to the target” , for which it will have to“maintain restrictive rates for a sustained period of time”.

The higher for longer mantra continues – its not the rate of increase but how long it remains elevated. Sounded Hawkish but markets not convinced.

*The USD Index gyrated on the FED announcement moving north of 104.00 but dipped to new 6-mth lows at 103.33 before recovering to 103.85 now. US Stocks rallied on open again but fell post FED and by close were lower (-0.42-0.76%). Yields held at lows too as Treasuries held on to Tuesday’s gains, 10yr closed at 3.503%. Commodities were mixed (Gold under $1800 but USOil holds over $76.50, from $77.50). Asian stocks are mostly lower in the aftermath of the FOMC and disappointing Chinese activity data.
*EUR – rotates 50 bps higher over 1.0600 at 1.0650 now, ahead of ECB later today.
*JPY – sank to 134.50 lows, ahead of the FED, spiked to 136.00 then dipped to 134.80 as Powell spoke and is back to 135.80 now. – Weak JPY (Trade) & Chinese (Ind. Production & Retail Sales) data and strong AUD jobs numbers.
*GBP – Sterling rotated a whole big number from 1.2445 to 1.2345 and trades at 1.2388 ahead of an expected 50 bp rate hike from the BoE today.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied but then closed lower – US500 -24.33 (-0.61%) 3995, and slips below 4000 again. Big movers included TSLA -2.58%, COIN -3.88%, AMD -3.80%. FUTS trades at 4012 now.





*USOil – Rallied to $77.54, post FED having touched $75.50 following huge inventory gains of 10.2 million barrels, trades at the key $76.50 now.
*Gold – Spiked down to $1795, rallied to $1815 and trades at $1788 now, unable to hold the $1800 handle.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue from Binance & SBF but the weaker USD saw a peak over $18.3k, before a crash to $17.7k now. – FTX bankruptcy lawyers say they -“do not trust” – Bahamas government.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, BoE, ECB, Norges Bank, SNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, European Council Meeting, Press Conferences with ECB’s Lagarde, Norges Bank’s Bache & SNB’s Jordan.





Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) fell from highs over 0.6885 yesterday to test 0.6825 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 39.22 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00183, Daily ATR 0.00935.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

`Date : 16th December 2022.

Market Update – December 16 – Ms Lagarde the Most Hawkish of All.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Following the FED’s hawkishness on Wednesday, the ECB took it a step further. The central bank may have slowed down the pace of tightening moves, but the statement made very clear that this is not a sign that rates are anywhere close to the peak and that there will have to be further “significant” tightening to bring rates to restrictive level, in order to dampen demand and thus help to bring inflation down. “This is not a pivot, we are in it for the long game”. EUR rallied & Yields on short term credit erupted (2yr German yields moved 24.2bp – the most in a single day since 2008) and the DAX lost –3.28%. 7 other central banks (including BOE) also rose rates yesterday all commenting on the scourge of inflation. A big Risk-Off day. The AUD tanked 2.4%, the Yen lost 1.7%, Gold was down 1.7% and USOil was off 1.8%.

*The USD Index rallied from 104.80 blows to retake the key 105.00 band trades at 105.30 now. US Stocks tanked (-2.25%-3.2%) Yields held at lows too as Treasuries held on to gains, 10yr closed at 3.47% and are lower no at 3.45%. Asian stocks are also lower in the aftermath of CB week (Nikkei -1.87%) and more grim Chinese covid narratives…”Beijing death toll mounts as Covid sweeps through Chinese capital”, “Beijing urged to roll out Covid boosters to avoid 1mn deaths”.
*EUR – rotates over 1.0600 at 1.0650 now, having spiked to 1.0720 post ECB.
*JPY – rallied from 135.25 lows, to spike over 138.00 and now trades at 137.30. This week’s low was 134.50.
*GBP – Sterling collapsed from 1.2425 to 1.2150 as the BOE vote was split with 6 members agreeing on the 50bp hike and one voter wanting to go with 75bp, however 2 voted and will have argued strongly for no change. Markets hate uncertainty, but conversely, they also hate “group think”. The FTSE100 also closed -0.93%. UK Retail Sales today missed significantly (-0.4% decline vs a 0.3% gain).
*Stocks – Wall Street collapsed (NASDAQ worst performer -3.2%) – US500 -99.57 (-2.5%) 3895, and slips below the key pivot at 3900 again. Big movers included the biggest of all APPL -4.69%, META -4.47%, NVAX -34.30%. FUTS trades at 3895 now.



However poor the prospects of a Santa Rally may appear, history is still on its side.



*USOil – Rallied to $77.54, again before falling to $75.25 and trades at $75.70 now.
[b]*[/bGold – Collapsed into the key $1780 and cannot hold that level today, trading at $1775.
[b]*[/bBTC – Sentiment woes continue the biggest coin trades at $17.4k today.

Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, EZ HICP (Final), Quadruple Witching.





Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) muted moves in FX following yesterday’s huge moves. Fell from highs on Tuesday at 93.35 to test 91.80 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 35.45 & falling, H1 ATR 0.177, Daily ATR 0.935.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.