Market condition

This trading week is coming so - it is something about what we can expect about : Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke

• Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke

• How Much Lower Can USD/JPY Fall?

• EUR – Stalls Ahead of Key Inflection Point

• GBP – 3 Decade BoE Veteran Announces Resignation

• CAD – Hit by Surprise Decline in Manufacturing Data

• NZD – Business PMI Hits 8 Year High

• AUD – Oil Extends Gains, Gold Steady

Some interesting ideas about forecasting for USDJPY - read this post Forecasting

Just about market condition for this coming week from Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes, Forex, Financial News

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EUR/USD weekly outlook: July 8 - 12 :

The euro fell to six-week lows against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday, as better-than-expected U.S. employment data for June fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start to scale back its asset purchase program.

EUR/USD hit session lows of 1.2807, the pair's lowest since May 17 before settling at 1.2834, down 0.62% for the day and 1.35% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2750, the low of March 27 and resistance at 1.2916, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

The euro dropped 0.73% against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank adopted a dovish stance on interest rates and took steps to give forward guidance to markets.

Speaking at the bank’s post policy meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank expects to maintain interest rates at current or lower levels for an “extended” period of time.

Draghi said the decision to give forward guidance on interest rates was taken unanimously by policymakers and was “a very significant step forward” for the ECB.

The ECB left interest rates on hold at record lows of 0.5%.

Draghi also said risks to growth in the euro zone remain “on the downside” and reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is necessary.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, as well as Friday's closely watched data on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Talks by euro zone finance ministers and testimony by Mario Draghi to the European Parliament will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 8

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on the trade balance. Meanwhile, the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.

In addition, ECB President Mario Draghi is to testify before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament in Brussels.

Tuesday, July 9

Finance ministers from the European Union are to hold talks in Brussels.

Wednesday, July 10

In the euro zone, France and Italy are to release official data on industrial production.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak.

Thursday, July 11

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which outlines the bank’s economic outlook.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, as well as official data on import prices.

Friday, July 12

The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: July 8 - 12 :

The dollar hit five-week highs against the yen on Friday after strong U.S. employment data for June fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its asset purchase program later this year.

USD/JPY rose to session highs of 101.23, the highest level since May 31, before settling at 101.17, up 1.13% for the day, extending the week's gains to 1.72%.

The pair is likely to find support at 99.88, Friday’s low and resistance at 102.51, the high of May 29.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. May's figure was revised up to 195,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% in June.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

Elsewhere, the euro was higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY closing at 129.82, 0.50% higher for the day, trimming the week’s losses to 0.28%.

The euro weakened against the dollar and the yen on Thursday after the European Central Bank adopted a dovish stance on interest rates and took steps to give forward guidance to markets.

Speaking at the bank’s post policy meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank expects to maintain interest rates at current or lower levels for an “extended” period of time.

Draghi said the decision to give forward guidance on interest rates was taken unanimously by policymakers and was “a very significant step forward” for the ECB.

The ECB left interest rates on hold at record lows of 0.5%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday's minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, as well as Friday's closely watched data on U.S. consumer sentiment. The outcome of Thursday's Bank of Japan policy meeting will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 8

Japan is to release official data on the current account and bank lending.

Wednesday, July 10

The BoJ is to release monetary policy meeting minutes, which provide insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Japan is also to produce official data on tertiary industry activity.

Later Wednesday, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its June policy setting meeting. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak.

Thursday, July 11

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s monetary policy statement, which contains important insights into the economic outlook. The BoJ is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Japan is also to release official data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, as well as official data on import prices.

Friday, July 12

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

GBP/USD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The dollar was higher against the pound on Friday, as the greenback recovered following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus.

GBP/USD hit session lows of 1.5076 before settling at 1.5107, down 0.51% for the day, paring back the week’s gains to 1.61%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.4996, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.5220, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

Sterling fell to three-year lows against the dollar early in the week after the Bank of England indicated at its July meeting that interest rates are likely to remain at record low levels, given weakness in the U.K.’s economic recovery.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity. U.K. data on unemployment will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, as well as reports on producer price inflation and retail price inflation.

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

The U.K. is to publish government data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 19

The U.K. is to round up the week with government data on public sector net borrowing.

USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as the greenback regained ground following a selloff earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy still required monetary stimulus.

USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0405, before settling at 1.0397, up 0.28% for the day and paring the week’s losses to 1.57%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0324, Thursday’s low and a three-week low and resistance at 1.0470, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply after Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity for indications that the U.S. recovery is on track.

Market participants will also be closely watching the outcome of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy meeting, the first under the leadership of new Governor Stephen Poltz, who took over from Mark Carney in June.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

Canada is to publish official data on manufacturing sales, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement.

Canada is to release government data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 19

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation.

USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as the greenback took a pause following a selloff earlier in the week, which saw it drop from six-week highs against the Swissy.

USD/CHF hit session lows of 0.9438, before settling at 0.9459, down 0.09% for the day, and 1.89% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9402, Thursday’s low and the lowest since June 26 and resistance at 0.9592, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke saw traders reassess expectations on the timing of a possible reduction to the bank’s easing program.

Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity for indications that the U.S. recovery is on track. Meanwhile, Switzerland is to produce data on inflation and economic expectations.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 15

Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

USD/JPY weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The dollar was higher against the yen on Friday, after falling sharply in the previous two sessions after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the bank may not be as close to tapering its asset purchase program as previously believed.

USD/JPY fell to lows of 98.25 on Thursday; the lowest since June 27, before recovering to close at 99.22 on Friday, up 0.28% for the day, paring the week’s losses to 1.68%.

The pair is likely to find support at 98.25, Thursday’s low and resistance at 101.20, the high of July 10.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

The yen was boosted after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy on hold following its policy setting meeting on Thursday, in a widely anticipated decision.

The BoJ also upgraded its assessment of the economy, saying it is starting to moderately recover.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity. Meanwhile, markets in Japan are to remain closed on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 15

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The BoJ is to release the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: July 22 - 26

Natural gas futures edged lower on Friday, as some investors cashed out of the market to lock in gains from the previous session’s 5% rally that took prices to a four-week high.

Updated weather forecasts showing that a heat wave in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest was expected to give way to below-normal temperatures this week also weighed.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in August fell 1.1% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.771 per million British thermal units.

Despite Friday’s downbeat performance, natural gas prices rose 3.45% on the week, the third consecutive weekly advance.

Nymex gas futures surged 5.1% on Thursday to hit a four-week high of USD3.814 per million British thermal units, following the release of bullish U.S. supply data.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 58 billion cubic feet last week, below market expectations for an increase of 64 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 29 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 70 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.745 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 1.2% below the five-year average and 13% below last year's level.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 45 billion cubic feet to 60 billion cubic feet, compared to a 26 billion cubic feet increase during the same week a year earlier.

The five-year average for the week is a build of 53 billion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, market players continued to focus on near-term weather forecasts to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.

Updated weather forecasting models released Friday pointed to milder weather temperatures across most parts of the U.S. Northeast and Midwest for the rest of July.

The U.S. National Weather Service pointed to below-normal temperatures covering the heavily populated Northeast and Midwest regions over the next six to 14 days.

Mild summer temperatures reduce the need for gas-fired electricity to cool homes.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery settled at USD108.23 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, adding 2.1% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for August delivery tacked on 2% over the week to settle at USD3.095 per gallon by close of trade Friday.

Grain futures - Weekly outlook: July 22 - 26

U.S. grain prices ended Friday’s session broadly higher, as market players continued to monitor weather conditions across grain-growing regions in the U.S. Midwest and in the Great Plains.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybeans for August delivery jumped 1.4% on Friday to settle the week at USD14.8988 a bushel by close of trade.

Earlier in the day, the August contract rose to a daily high of USD14.9263 a bushel, the strongest level since June 21.

Prices of the oilseed rallied 4.1% on the week amid concerns that adverse weather in key soy-growing states in the U.S. may damage crops.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 26% of the U.S. soy crop bloomed as of last week, significantly below the 63% recorded in the same week a year earlier.

The agency also said that nearly 65% of the soy crop was in ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ condition as of last week, down from 67% in the preceding week.

Meanwhile, corn futures for September delivery eased up 0.5% on Friday to settle the week at USD5.4313 a bushel.

Corn prices found support after the USDA said U.S. farmers sold 1.7 million tonnes of corn for the current and new marketing years, above market expectations for sales of 1.6 million tonnes.

Despite Friday’s upbeat performance, the September corn futures contract ended the week with a loss of 0.2%.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for September delivery added 0.4% on Friday to settle the week at USD6.6388 a bushel.

Wheat futures were boosted after the USDA said China acquired 120,000 metric tons of soft-red winter wheat.

U.S. wheat sales to foreign buyers are up 44% from the same period a year earlier.

Despite Friday’s gains, the CBOT September wheat contract lost 2.5% on the week.

In the week ahead, corn and soybean traders will continue to pay close attention to weather forecasts for grain-growing regions in the U.S. Midwest, while wheat traders will monitor temperatures in the Great Plains-region.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.