Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets: US Stocks Decline, Oil Surges Amid Israel-Gaza Conflict


The global financial landscape found itself in a state of flux as the military conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip roiled markets. US stock futures faced downward pressure, while oil and Treasury values surged. Additionally, the September US jobs report added to the intensity, setting the stage for crucial inflation figures later in the week.

Despite thin trading conditions due to holidays in Japan and South Korea, the initial market sentiment favoured bonds and safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and gold. Simultaneously, oil prices experienced a notable climb, surging by over $3 per barrel.

The Israeli shekel bore the initial brunt of the turmoil, plummeting to its lowest level since early 2015, standing at 3.9880 per dollar. While this may not immediately appear significant to traders due to the shekel's limited status as a major currency and unavailability on most platforms, it is intertwined with the potential performance of tech stocks listed on US exchanges, notably NASDAQ.

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GBP/USD Starts Recovery While USD/CAD Corrects Lower


GBP/USD started a recovery wave from the 1.2040 zone. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3700 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2270 resistance.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2180 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD rallied toward the 1.3800 level before it started a downside correction.
• A declining channel is forming with resistance near 1.3700 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair accelerated lower below the 1.2200 zone. The British Pound even traded below the 1.2120 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2040 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2120. There was a spike toward the 1.2270 resistance. A high has formed near 1.2261 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Economic Calendar: Markets Digest Events Happening in Israel


It's a busy start to the week as markets digest the events happening in Israel. Last week, WTI fell 10% to below $81 but gapped higher on this week's open, as wars in the Middle East add a risk premium to the price. With the OPEC report on Thursday, it looks set to be another volatile week in the oil markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month High


As the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.

It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.

However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.

Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k


The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.

Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.

Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

BOE Concentrates on Persistent Inflation Whilst US Stocks Fly


Bank of England policy committee member Catherine Mann emphasised the need for a more aggressive central bank response to prolonged inflation exceeding target levels. She highlighted the importance of addressing not only the current high inflation but also the risk of inflation expectations rising in the future. Ms. Mann's call for a proactive approach to inflation management came after her preference for a rate increase at the BOE's last meeting, while her colleagues voted to maintain the status quo.

According to Ms. Mann, "Policy has to be more aggressive because it has to address both a drift in expectations as well as the actual inflation." She expressed concern about the persistence and duration of elevated inflation, underscoring the importance of managing embedded inflation expectations.

The British pound is moving upward against the US dollar for the sixth day.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Major Currency Pairs Correct after Sharp Declines


The fairly positive US jobs report released last Friday ultimately led to a corrective pullback in almost all currency pairs. The US dollar fell against the yen, commodity currencies, the pound, and the euro. However, not all pairs managed to overcome the key ranges; the size of the corrective pullback and the possibility of a reversal will depend on the incoming fundamental events of the coming trading sessions.

USD/CAD


In the US dollar/loonie pair, we are seeing the bearish tweezer pattern, formed on October 5, working out. The combination was confirmed the next day with a long black candle. The nearest range where the price can fall is from 1.3540 to 1.3500. Cancellation of the downward scenario may occur after a confident consolidation above 1.3700.

Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak today, in particular Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. Comments from these officials could have a significant impact on the pair's pricing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD Attempts Recovery While USD/CHF Revisits Support


EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0550 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now trading near the 1.0450 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0550 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.9140 and 0.9080 support levels.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9080 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0450 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0485 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0570. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0615 resistance. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high.

Immediate support on the downside is 1.0595. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0570 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high. A downside break below the 1.0570 support could send the pair toward the 1.0485 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0615 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0650 level. An upside break above the 1.0650 level might send the pair toward the 1.0700 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0720 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0800 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NZD/USD Analysis: The Rate Reaches a 2-month High


This morning, as the NZD/USD chart shows, one USD was worth 0.605 New Zealand dollar, for the first time since August 10.

The strengthening of NZD was facilitated by:
→ rumours that China is planning a major stimulus package to boost the economy amid the real estate crisis. And the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as one can see, are showing growth against the backdrop of positive news from China;
→ the weakness of the US dollar due to the fact that Fed members make it clear in their statements that it is no longer worth raising rates further.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bank of England Expresses Concern Over Overvalued US Tech Stocks Amid Macro-Economic Uncertainty


The Bank of England has voiced concerns over the soaring valuations of US technology stocks, citing the current macroeconomic landscape and the surge in interest rates. This commentary underscores the evolving dynamics in global financial markets.

The UK stock market stands in stark contrast to its tech-focused counterpart in the United States, particularly the NASDAQ. The London Stock Exchange is home to well-established blue-chip firms with traditional corporate foundations.

These companies span industries such as retail, pharmaceuticals, energy, leisure, and heavy industry. In contrast, NASDAQ boasts tech giants from Silicon Valley, including titans like Apple and Google, as well as recent entrants through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), with valuations soaring into the billions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.