Forex Technical/Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD reaches new lows: market pressures mount on the Aussie

The AUDUSD pair is rapidly falling, with the market testing the 5 August low. Find out more in our analysis for 14 November 2024.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a corrective wave, reaching 0.6545 and, after rebounding from this level, dropped to 0.6480. A narrow consolidation range is expected to develop at the current lows of a downward wave today, 14 November 2024.



The AUDUSD pair appears weak and has reached three-month lows.

Read more - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY develops a rally: the yen is again a victim of market developments

The USDJPY pair continues its ascent as investors assess Japan’s GDP data. Discover more in our analysis for 15 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair moves in line with the rally
• Investors assess the latest Japanese GDP statistics
• USDJPY forecast for 15 November 2024: 157.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate surged to 156.38 on Friday.

The market is scrutinising today’s statistics. Japan’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, a significant slowdown compared to the 0.5% growth in Q2. Nevertheless, this marks the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 0.9%, significantly below the 2.2% level of Q2.

Uncertainty remains high regarding the normalisation of the Bank of Japan’s policy. Mixed statistics and recent political developments suggest an even gloomier outlook. Making critical decisions under such conditions proves challenging.

The USDJPY forecast is so far in favour of the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) reverses upwards, securing above 2,550 USD

XAUUSD prices declined to 2,536 USD within a correction last week, where they encountered strong demand and formed a local upward reversal. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 18 November 2024.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the XAUUSD pair is in a downward correction. Asset prices tumbled to 2,536 USD last week, where they encountered strong demand from buyers and reversed upwards.



Gold (XAUUSD) quotes attempt to complete a correction and reverse upwards, securing above 2,550 USD.

Read more - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: the yen may continue to lose ground

The increase in US building permits and a Fed official’s speech may support the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 19 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US Housing Starts in October: previously at 1.354 million, projected at 1.340 million
• US building permits in October: previously at 1.425 million, projected at 1.440 million
• Speech by Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Schmid
• USDJPY forecast for 19 November 2024: 157.60

Fundamental analysis

Housing Starts, representing the total number of projects initiated during the reporting month, are compiled from surveys of property owners and construction companies. These statistics cover approximately 95% of all housing projects in the country. The data are adjusted for seasonal factors and weather conditions to improve accuracy.

This indicator is published during the second ten-day period of each month as part of the general construction report, including data on building permits and completed projects. According to the fundamental analysis for 19 November 2024, construction activity may decline to 1.340 million from the previous reporting period. However, this decrease is not critical and is unlikely to impact the USDJPY rate.

Building permits reflect the seasonally adjusted number of permits issued to start new projects. These figures represent an annualised housing construction rate and should be interpreted as the projected number of permits for the year if current trends persist. This indicator is considered a vital metric of the housing market and a reflection of the overall state of the economy. As a leading metric for one of the most critical economic sectors, building permits provide insight into broader economic trends. The forecast for 19 November 2024 anticipates an increase in issued building permits to 1.440 million. Although the rise is modest, it is a positive factor for the US dollar.

Fed official Jeffrey Schmid, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is scheduled to deliver a speech by the end of the US trading session. His report may include data on the near-term development of the US monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD: the euro continues to lose ground against the US dollar

The ECB’s financial stability report and the ECB president’s speech could further weaken the euro. Discover more in our analysis for 20 November 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart indicates that the market has received support at the 1.0523 level and has continued its upward movement. The price is expected to reach 1.0610 today, 20 November 2024. The structure formed around the 1.0560 can be viewed as correcting the previous downward wave.



The ECB president’s speech and other fundamental factors continue to weaken the euro.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) rises, reaching 2,700 USD

XAUUSD prices continue strengthening significantly after forming a local trough and reversing upwards. Further growth may follow a brief correction. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 22 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US statistics on the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are due today
• Current trend: strong upward movement
• XAUUSD forecast for 22 November 2024: 2,643 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards, displaying significant growth towards the long-term trend. This growth is supported by demand from central banks, the Federal Reserve’s interest policy of cutting interest rates, and escalating global geopolitical tensions.

A crucial release of US statistics is expected today – the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Weaker-than-forecast statistics could exert pressure on the US dollar and support XAUUSD. Conversely, stronger figures may prompt a correction in the pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD is in a consolidation phase following a sharp decline: the market is too nervous

The euro hit a new low before recovering. Investors are observing signs of a slowdown in European economies. Find out more in our analysis for 25 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair reached a new low and recovered
• Investors expect a swift reduction in ECB interest rates to support weak economies
• EURUSD forecast for 25 November 2024: 1.0500 and 1.0414

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0476 on Monday after dropping to 1.0331 earlier.

A rather gloomy business survey triggered the euro’s decline, which revealed a contraction in the two largest European economies – France and Germany – in November. The market believes that the re-election of Donald Trump as US president will further weaken the already fragile European economy. Potential import duties could hurt Germany’s export-oriented economy. These risks are significant, putting substantial pressure on the EUR rate.

As a result, the market is betting that the ECB will lower interest rates more aggressively to address the economic weakness. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to take a more cautious approach. An increase in the interest rate differential will make the euro less appealing, boosting demand for dollar-dominated assets.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: the yen continues its attempts to strengthen against the US dollar

The decrease in Japan’s core CPI had a mixed effect on the USDJPY rate, with the pair continuing its correction. More details in our analysis for 26 November 2024.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart indicates that the market has formed a narrow consolidation range above the 153.80 level. The price is expected to break below the range today, 26 November 2024, and extend the downward wave towards 152.88.



The projected decline in new home sales offsets the potential increase in the CB US Consumer Confidence Index.

Read more - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD: pressure on the Canadian dollar intensifies

The USDCAD rate strengthens despite yesterday’s rebound from the key resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 November 2024

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The US Federal Reserve noted uncertainty in economic data, which complicates interest rate decisions
• The Bank of Canada is considering further rate cuts; however, the chances of a 50-basis-point cut have decreased due to rising inflation
• Canada’s core inflation grew to 2.6% in October, exceeding expectations
• Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% in October but fell short of forecasts
• USDCAD forecast for 27 November 2024: 1.4011

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate has risen for the fourth consecutive trading session, showing a steady bullish trend. Buyers are likely preparing to retest the crucial 1.4110 resistance level. The Canadian dollar fell to 2020 lows after Donald Trump threatened to raise Canadian import tariffs by 20%.

The Federal Reserve emphasised the difficulty of making decisions amid uncertainty in evolving data and the impact of a neutral interest rate. The policy remains dependent on economic trends, so interest rates are expected to remain elevated if inflation stays steady and be reduced if the labour market weakens. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rose to 62.8% from 55.9% a week ago.

The Bank of Canada is poised to lower the interest rate next month. However, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut decreased after the release of inflation data. Core inflation, the gauge preferred by the Bank of Canada, rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, exceeding forecasts. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, lower expectations of an aggressive Bank of Canada rate cut could limit the potential for further US dollar strength.

Meanwhile, Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in October, following a 0.8% rise in September, but missed the forecast of 0.9%. The growth was partly due to increased sales in the automotive sector, including spare parts and accessories.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

The euro is in positive territory while the US dollar rests: US sentiment shifts before the long weekend

The EURUSD pair is on the rise. Investors are evaluating the US GDP and core PCE data. Find out more in our analysis for 28 November 2024.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a growth wave towards 1.0587, the first target. The structure is expected to shift downward today, 28 November 2024, targeting 1.0460 and marking the boundaries of a consolidation range.



The EURUSD pair has recovered from a local low, but heightened volatility is expected due to the US Thanksgiving long weekend.

Read more - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team