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This is a discussion on Market News within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The Friday release of the latest employment data makes the upcoming earning's season the focus of most investors and traders. ...

      
   
  1. #751
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    The Week Ahead: Overvalued Or Not - It Still Could Be A Tough October

    The Friday release of the latest employment data makes the upcoming earning's season the focus of most investors and traders. Though most forecasters are looking for another quarter of negative earnings I think investors are more likely to see the first quarter of earnings gains in well over a year.Since September 9th and 12th the S&P 500 has stayed in a rather broad range as both the rallies and declines have not lasted long. The strength of the monthly market internals I discussed last week does favor higher prices at year end though October could be a tough market.wa10-7aThe recent scares over Deutsche Bank and the Thursday night plunge in the British Pound (see chart) have increased the fear level and reduced the appetite for stocks. There has been no heavy selling yet but it cannot be ruled out in the weeks ahead. The market internals were negative overall last week as the number of advancing stocks was not impressive even on the up days.In election years, unlike the rest of the time, October is not a good month for stocks. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac since 1950 the S&P has averaged a 0.7% decline in election years. But since 1950 the S&P 500 in October has been higher 41 years and down 25 years with an average return of 0.80%.In addition to the large number of bearish hedge fund managers Bank of America's Savita Subramanian expressed her negative outlook last week as they have a yearend target for the S&P 500 at 2000. Though none of her most reliable indicators are warning of a recession she is worried about complacency. It should be noted that she has often been too negative during the bull market.Still there are several analysts that feel the odds of a bear market is low as they also feel the lack of euphoria amongst investors (What's Missing From This Bull Market?) is not characteristic of a major bull market top.In a Bankrate article they quoted S&P's Sam Stovall "All bull markets since World War II that lasted longer than 4 years went out with a bang, not a whimper," he explains. "Investors will likely become overly confident, not cautious, before this bull comes to an end." I also find the current low level of public participation to be uncharacteristic of a bull market top.Of course one of the primary arguments against the bull market is that stocks are two expensive. Many point to CAPE P/E formula developed by Robert Shiller that uses S&P earnings. As discussed in last week's Wall Street Journal article it is currently at 27 which was close to the reading at the 2007 market top.

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    Mylan Surges After Quickly Settling With DoJ Over EpiPen Medicaid Rebates

    Mylan will pay $465 million to settle with the Department of Justice over its classification of EpiPen in Medicaid rebate programs.

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    Financially Frail Boomer Women

    Baby Boomer women - now in their 50's and 60's - are doing worse financially than older women in the 1990s. My new research with Professor Annamaria Lusardi explains why, using national representative survey data from the Health and Retirement Study and the National Financial Capability Study. We track changes in older women’s work plans and debt burdens, along with the links to financial literacy and debt stressors.

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    Russia, Saudi Oilfield Mismanagement Will Bring Back $100 Oil

    Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to cooperate with Saudi Arabia's proposal to reduce oil production in an effort to boost oil prices. Bruce Pile says that Russia and Saudi Arabia may not have as much control over oil production as it appears. His analysis indicates that after years of Russian and Saudi mismanagement of their giant oilfields, production could fall enough to push oil back over $100/bbl within a reasonable time horizon for investors.

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    Russia Under Putin -- The Third Time Around

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    Amazon Wants To Enter Your Home To Deliver Packages

    Amazon.com has been continually upping the ante on how quickly and conveniently it can get people their orders through an array of last-mile logistics innovations. But a new delivery option sounds like it could strike some as a little too convenient for comfort.

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    In Wells Fargo Shakeup, Former Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke Becomes Vice Chair

    Elizabeth 'Betsy' Duke, a longtime regional banker who sat on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis, is ascending into one of the financial industry's biggest roles as Wells Fargo vice chair.

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    World's 25 Biggest Banks In 2016

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    Top Oil Trader: Markets Under Pressure Without 'Daily Adrenaline Shot'

    On Tuesday, commodity research heavyweight Citigroup said that there was a real chance that OPEC's oil production cut would be put in place, and that it would move markets well into next year. Others, however, aren't so convinced, adding to a general state of confusion in global oil markets. On Thursday, oil prices headed south on news that OPEC's September production had spiked and a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles.

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    The Case For Flexion To Double By Mid-2017

    Twelve million patients see a doctor for osteoarthritis related knee pain. The current standard of care is to first try corticosteroid injections before moving on to opioid treatments which can be addictive. Todd Hagopian has been adding to his position in Flexion, because of their progress developing Zilretta, a non-opioid, sustained-release treatment that has the potential to be as safe as corticosteroids, while delivering longer-lasting relief.

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