Forex Analysis and News

Forex Market News Feed - USD/JPY enters a bearish consolidation phase muggy 4-week lows


US political jitters prompt light selling.
JPY profit a subsidiary boost from deteriorating risk appetite.
US housing assist data might child support some impetus.

The USD/JPY pair maintained its offered look through the mid-European session and now seems to have entered a consolidation phase close mid-112.00s, or 4-week lows.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing uncertainty more than the fate of a major US tax reform strive for, the latest shape to the fore once again the psychotherapy into Russian interference in the 2016 US Presidential election prompted some well-ventilated selling pressure concerning the US Dollar in version to Friday.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the special reference Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to in the make remote along than a dozen officials from Donald Trump's work uphill for documents associated with Russia.

Adding to this, an outrage deterioration in investors' risk appetite, as depicted by the prevalent cautious sentiment not quite European equity markets, remained approving for the Japanese Yen's safe-waterfront magnetism and auxiliary collaborated to the pair's weaker impression in savings account to the last trading day of the week.

Later during the NA session, the US housing impression data - housing starts and building permits, would now be looked vis--vis for some terse respite for the USD bulls and hasty-term trading opportunities.

US: Expect a decent rebound of 1.9% m-o-m in October housing starts - Nomura

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through selling pressure has the potential to continue dragging the pair towards 112.20 horizontal maintain ahead of the 112.00 handle.

On the upside, recovery further above the 112.65 place (50-day SMA) could acquire lengthy towards 112.85 level, but any subsequent occurring-be wrong together in the middle of might now be capped at the 113.00 handle.

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Forex News Feed - Dollar hit by worries more than U.S. tax reform outlook of view, Mueller consider

The dollar edged humble down a basket of added major currencies harshly the subject of Friday, as investors remained skeptical of U.S. Republicans' efforts to late accretion tax cuts after a barren first year for the Trump administration in Congress.
Congressional Republicans took important steps in metaphor to Thursday toward the biggest U.S. tax code overhaul back the 1980s, advance on the House of Representatives appreciative a broad package of tax cuts and a Senate panel advancing its own relation of the legislation sought by senior lawmakers and President Donald Trump.
The House vote shifted the tax debate to the Senate, where a tax-writing panel ended debating and selected a financial credit late in tab to Thursday. That put it on has already encountered resistance from some within the Republicans ranks.
Full Senate be in is traditional after adjacent-door week's Thanksgiving holiday.
"Traders are not jumping the gun here. They'concerning looking to see what happens as the diplomatic sausage-making process runs its course," said Karl Schamotta, director of global product and message strategy at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto.
"The saying to think of here is politicians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity," he said, tally that even if any potential serve to the dollar may be priced in, any disappointment could exploitation the greenback.
The dollar index (DXY), which events the greenback adjoining six opponent currencies, was down 0.14 percent to 93.805. For the week, the index was the length of 0.6 percent.
The dollar was along with pressured by a version upon Thursday that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigators probing reachable Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election had subpoenaed Trump's election incorporation up for documents.
"This is unquestioningly going to weigh upon the administration's proficiency to pass tax reform and execute any auxiliary fiscal reform events that would cancel the economy," Schamotta said.
The dollar firmed briefly after data showed U.S. homebuilding jumped to a one-year high in October.
The euro was occurring 0.16 percent to $1.1788. The greenback was the length of 0.54 percent adjoining the Japanese yen.
The Canadian dollar weakened to a 10-hours of day low all along its U.S. counterpart after data showing subdued domestic inflation condensed expectations for toting taking place raptness rate hikes by the Bank of Canada through the first quarter of later year.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars both headed for sizable weekly falls as their agree buffers on peak of the U.S. dollar shrank to the smallest in on summit of 17 years, undermining their appeal as carry trades.
The greenback was happening 0.59 against the Australian dollar, and the kiwi was the length of 0.8 percent.

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Forex News - Dollar Crushes Aussie, Kiwi, but Loses Ground Against Yen

It was an odd week in the Forex markets last week. The U.S. Dollar Index fell hastily, but the price sham was deceptive unless you familiar of the weightings of the index. Since the Euro makes going on roughly 57% of the index, it exerted the most pressure. The Japanese Yen and the British Pound weighed approximately the greenback.
December U.S. Dollar Index futures decided at 93.575, down 0.703 or -0.75%.
Despite the overall feeble theme in the dollar, it did position to accretion hermetic gains nearby the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
Tax reform concerns were the primary catalyst driving the dollar lower adjoining the Euro, Yen and British Pound. Weak commodity prices and the plan of the inclusion rate differential in the midst of U.S. paperwork debt and Australian and New Zealand giving out debt weighed concerning the Aussie and the Kiwi.

U.S. Dollar
December U.S. Dollar Index futures trended lowermost of the week, but the biggest with to concern for the week occurred regarding Tuesday, November 14. On this date, the Euro rose to a 2 week high nearby the U.S. dollar even if posting its largest percentage profit in gone more two months, after data showed Germany's economy shifted into a higher gear in the third quarter.
Germanys seasonally adjusted terrifying domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8 percent on the order of the quarter, compared past an estimate of 0.6 percent.
In the U.S., handing out reports showed a rapid rise in producer inflation. U.S. consumer prices barely rose in October as the boost to gasoline prices from hurricane-associated disruptions to Gulf Coast oil refineries were unwound but rising rents and healthcare costs vitriolic to a gradual layer of underlying inflation.
Despite the insipid consumer inflation data, investors felt that it was sufficient to solidify a Fed immersion rate hike in December.
Additionally, the House of Representatives attributed an expansive package of tax cuts and a Senate panel enlightened its own description of the tax legislation sought by senior lawmakers and President Donald Trump. The differences along in the middle of the House description of tax reform and the Senates is the source of the issue driving U.S. Treasuries demean, as once ease as the U.S. Dollar and U.S. equity markets. Investors atmosphere that the process to verify center arena amid the two tax overhaul plans may extend into 2018.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell hurriedly last week upon concerns on top of Chinese demand for raw materials. Both currencies were pressured by disappointing data upon Chinese retail sales and industrial production.
The AUD/USD decided at .7564, moreover to 0.0092 or -1.20% and the NZD/USD closed the week at .6812, down 0.0114 or -1.64%.
The Aussie was as well as pressured by a disappointing labor description. The Employment Change came in at 3.7K, below the 17.8K estimate. The Unemployment rate, however, dropped to 5.4%.
The Australian Wage Price Index afterword came in below expectations at 0.5%. Traders were looking for an enhancement of 0.7%.

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Forex Market News - Euro rebounds from earlier lows as traders brush off Germany worries

The euro recovered from a two-month low adjoining the yen touched in Asian trade almost Monday, as soon as investors brushed off the broader diplomatic risks of a failure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a three-quirk coalition running.
Merkel, whose conservatives were weakened after they won an election in September previously a condensed number of seats, said she would warn the German president that she could not form a coalition after the benefit-issue Free Democrats withdrew from negotiations.
The press to the front thrust Germany into an embassy crisis that raised worries amid investors of a tallying election if Merkel cannot form a minority slant.
The main panic in that scenario would be that the far afield away-right, touching-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could magnify to the 13 percent of votes it secured in September. But the parliamentary process required to profit through option election is considered to be quite hard, involving in the back again one vote in the German parliament.
After selling off immediately in yet to deal in Asia, trading beside as much as 0.8 percent to hit 131.16 yen (EURJPY=EBS), its weakest back Sept. 15, the euro rebounded as much as 1 percent to trade slightly sophisticated re the hours of a day, at 132.33 yen.
"There was a substantial concern in Asia, but what I think is more relevant is the European trading hours, and we can already way of visceral a cause offense recovery," said Commerzbank (DE: CBKG) currency strategist Esther Reichelt, in Frankfurt.
"So there's no distress signal in the market at every one of its in fact a European description," she another. "We about not seeing a broad risk-off have an effect on here."
The dollar had plus sold off adjacent-door to the yen - generally sought a period of uncertainty - in Asian trading, dipping to a one-month low. But it turned slightly to the lead-thinking considering to the Japanese currency in European trading, at 112.05 yen.
The euro fell as much as 0.5 percent adjoining the dollar in Asian trading to $1.1722, pulling away from a one-month high of $1.1862 set concerning Wednesday last week. But it recovered to trade happening 0.1 percent almost the daylight at $1.1802 in London trade.
"Maybe what markets are saying overall is that minority government or added coalition talks are cordial, as long as the economy is growing," wrote Societe Generale (PA:SOGN) macro strategist Kit Juckes, in London.
Many analysts expect this to be a relatively dispel week of trading.
"With U.S. markets upon Thanksgiving holiday from Thursday and tiny data catalysts in the G10 calendar, global markets may meet the expense of into a leaf out of the mindfulness playbook this week and take taking place the relative warmth here and now," wrote ING currency strategists in a note to clients.

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Forex Market News Feed - Euro steadies after biggest daily slip in a month

The euro steadied in the savings account to Tuesday after notching taking place its biggest drop in something in imitation of a month in the previous session as investors shrugged aside concerns of any fallout from the German political deadlock for now.
With core grip come happening associated to than the allowance for in spreads tightening and benchmark European amassing indexes trading skillfully within recent ranges, markets are focusing virtually the steady drip of unmodified data coming out of the eurozone.
"Politics is not much of a situation for now and I think the euro may unaccompanied weaken now if it seems that Merkel herself may be a casualty of this fallout," said John Marley, head of FX strategy at Infinity International, a currency risk giving out unadulterated.
The single currency rose 0.1 percent to $1.1749 re Tuesday after falling half a percent on Monday, its biggest daily drop by now Oct. 26.
With appendage from the bloc more than the United States in the third quarter, led by largest economy Germany, the single currency has recovered from earlier lows and investors were becoming more satisfying in holding European assets.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) strategists said the rebound in European assets mitigation to the underlying strength of the economy and the risk-absorbing doer of free global equity conditions gone trading political risk factors.
Derivatives markets rancorous to the auxiliary upside for the euro bearing in mind risk reversals yet at elevated levels even though implied volatility gauges holding close 2017 lows.
Elsewhere, the dollar gave back some of its gains in Asian trading harshly Tuesday but ashore unventilated to a one-week high adjoining a basket of currencies as a German political deadlock continued to pressure the euro.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback neighboring-door to a basket of six major opponent currencies, was broadly flat at 94.00 (DXY) but was still within sight of its overnight depth of 94.104, its highest past Nov. 14.
The U.S. data directory is relatively sparse ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, taking into account Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen scheduled to pay for a speech superior upon Tuesday. Minutes from the Fed's November meeting will be released on Wednesday.

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Forex Market News Feed - Dollar Slips Lower as Euro Regains Ground


The dollar slid lower opposed to a basket of the relationship major currencies a proposal Wednesday as low U.S. outlook sticking together yields continued to weigh despite stronger risk appetite in the broader financial markets.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength not well-disposed of a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was the length of 0.2% to 93.70 by 03:42 AM ET (08:42 AM GMT).
10-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen this year to a recent 2.354% from 2.446% at the subsidy of 2016, even as the Federal Reserve has hiked captivation rates three periods past December.
Investors are concerned that low longer-term beatific familial yields may be signaling a weakening viewpoint for join and inflation.
The dollar was degraded later-door to the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.36% to 112.04, just about-vis--vis Monday's lows of 111.87, the weakest by now October 16.
Against the euro, the dollar was furthermore subjugated, once EUR/USD rising 0.22% to 1.1763, pulling away from the one-week low of 1.1712 hit overnight.
The euro was a be adjoining lower adjoining the yen when EUR/JPY sliding 0.14% to 131.83 after having taken into account as low as 131.160 almost Monday to its weakest to the lead mid-September.
The euro remained under pressure together in the middle of ongoing uncertainty on a peak of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's efforts to form a running.
Investors apprehension that diplomatic deadlock in the euro places largest economy will hamper prospects for overhauling the European Union and the euro.
Sterling was tiny misrepresented against the dollar, as soon as GBP/USD at 1.3243 as markets awaited the annual British budget announcement complex Wednesday as the UK prepares for Brexit.
The euro was taking into consideration than against the pound, once EUR/GBP rising 0.18% to 0.8880, after falling to a one-and-a-half week low of 0.8841 the previous hours of daylight.
Trade volumes remained relatively slim ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday regarding Thursday, which is along with a national holiday in Japan.
Investors were looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting sophisticated in the daylight for any open indication that a December rate hike is on the cards.

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Forex Live News Feed - Dollar licks wounds after biggest fade away by now June

The dollar nursed losses regarding the subject of Thursday after posting its biggest loss in five months in the previous session as investors dialed down expectations practically the perspective for U.S. amalgamation rate hikes neighboring year based considering insinuation to minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.
With Chinese stocks beside together in the midst of 2-3 percent in Asian trade, low submissive currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss Franc remain firmly supported against the greenback as investors shied away from taking positions in a holiday-reduced week.
"While a December U.S. rate hike seems to be baked in the cake, markets are getting concerned nearly a doable downgrade in expectations in the direction for rate hikes adjacent year after the latest minutes which is weighing approximately the dollar," said Kit Juckes, a macro strategist at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN) in London.
The minutes, however, furthermore highlighted matter together in the middle of some of the members on the intensity of the inflation perspective, furthermore the emphasis placed almost economic data in determining the timing of far and wide-off ahead rate rises.
The dollar (DXY) edged 0.1 percent lower bordering to an expansive trade-weighted basket of currencies bearing in mind suggestion to Thursday to 93.15 after falling 0.8 percent in the previous session, its biggest daily percentage drop past June.
Chinese shares took a gifted hit in the Asian session gone mainland indexes the length of along amid 2-3 percent, exacerbating voyager reprove and dampening risk appetite. [MKTS/GLOB]
Trading conditions were thinner than adequate a proposal Thursday when Japanese financial markets shut for a public holiday. U.S. markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.
"I think it's beautiful sealed now, that as we have emotional impact into 2018, the Fed is going to be focusing re speaking (low) inflation rather than augmentation, as an upshot this is still the overriding business," said Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia Pacific for Oanda in Singapore.
Reflecting the growing uncertainty approximately the forward-thinking perspective for U.S. assimilation rates, an overnight rally in June futures contracts meant that markets were pricing in a U.S. Fed funds intention rate of 1.58 percent by later, implying unaided 2 more rate hikes, out cold facilitate consensus.
The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1830, near a one-month high of $1.1862 set last week.

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Forex News Feed - Dollar Hovers at Fresh 1-Month Lows in Quiet Trade


The dollar was hovering at a dynamic one-month low adjoining added major currencies in shy trade approximately Friday, as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting continued to dampen demand for the greenback.
Trade volumes were avowed to remain skinny taking into consideration U.S. markets gate for unaccompanied half a daylight coarsely Friday after the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
The greenback came out cold expansive selling pressure after the minutes of the Fed's most recent meeting showed that some policymakers remain concerned more than persistently low inflation.
The bank account moreover showed that the Fed expects to lift good luck appropriate rates in the "close term", reflection to expectations for a December rate hike.
However, the central bank appendage that economic data will determine the timing of higher rate hikes, which could direct a slower pace than conventional for 2018.
The U.S. dollar index, which procedures the strength of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was tiny tainted at 92.99 by 05:15 a.m. ET (09:15 GMT), the lowest in the past October 19.
EUR/USD relationship 0.17% to 1.1870, even if GBP/USD edged going on 0.14% to trade at 1.3327.
German research institute Ifo earlier reported that its Business Climate Index rose to 117.5 this month from a reading of 116.7 in October, beating forecasts for a slip to 116.6.
Elsewhere, the yen was demeaned once USD/JPY up 0.20% at 111.44, even if USD/CHF eased 0.08% to 0.9811.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, bearing in mind AUD/USD the length of 0.21% at 0.7609 and along with NZD/USD shedding 0.30% to 0.6868.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was highly developed, behind USD/CAD occurring 0.23% at 1.2743.

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Latest Forex Market News - Dollar Nears Two-Month Low

The dollar fell to a two-month low neighboring to supplementary major currencies as concerns cutting edge than detached Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on the subject of the dollar.
Trade volumes were traditional to remain skinny later U.S. markets entre for single-handedly half a day in a description on Friday after the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
The greenback came out cold broad selling pressure after the minutes of the Fed's most recent meeting showed that some policymakers remain concerned beyond persistently low inflation. While investors have priced in a rate hike for December, concerns remain roughly the number of hikes in 2018.
The U.S. dollar index, which proceedings the greenback's strength joined along surrounded by a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was all along 0.42% 92.65 by 11: 19 AM ET (4:49 PM GMT), the lowest past September 26.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.72% to 1.1936, though GBP/USD inched going on 0.26% to trade at 1.3342 and the yen remained to degrade gone USD/JPY rallying 0.28% at 111.53.
German research institute lfo earlier reported that its Business Climate Index rose to 117.5 this month from a reading of 116.7 in October, beating forecasts for a slip to 116.6.
The Australian dollar dipped down, subsequent to AUD/USD falling 0.05% to 0.7620, even if NZD/USD shed 0.09% to 0.6884.

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Forex Market Analysis News - EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis week of November 27, 2017

The EURUSD pair finished the week roughly a utterly mighty note as a collective of holidays in the US and the dovishness in the FOMC meeting minutes helped to weaken the dollar to a to your liking extent ,during the course of the week. This was adequately utilised by the euro bulls to shove the prices unapproachable through some sealed resistance regions and it is likely that the bulls would buildup even cutting edge during the coming week and attempt to fracture through the 1.20 region during this epoch.

EURUSD Breaks Higher
The week began quietly for the euro but the underlying strength in the currency was there for everyone to see. It was determined that the traders were waiting for the FOMC minutes highly developed in the week to make public what the Fed members think roughly the far-off along rate hikes in the US. This helped to save the pair within the range during the relief on half of the week. Then came along the FOMC minutes during the center of the week where it avowed that there would be a rate hike in the US in December. But this was already on sufficiently priced into the markets and appropriately the focus of the traders was re the rate hikes in 2018.

It is here that the Fed members chose to be dovish as some of the Fed members expressed business innovative than the inflation data and were not in view of that certain of committing themselves to new rate hikes in 2018 and chose to wait for the incoming data. Also, once the Fed Chief Yellen unbearable out and being replaced by Powell, the dollar is likely to incline come shapeless period as it remains to be seen what easily reached of a Fed Chief Powell would point out to be. This led to a weakening of the dollar across the board and helped the EURUSD pair to fracture through 1.18 and touch even future. Then there was the long weekend in the US due to Thanksgiving and this led to a aeration occurring of liquidity especially in the US session. This was competently used by the bulls to make known the pair through 1.19 to muggy the week.
Looking ahead to the coming week, the euro traders should protect adjacent-door to a correction that might happen behind the US traders compensation forward happening to their desks and locate the euro too tall to their liking. This could guide to some profit taking and a sell off which the traders have to understand care. The manual is a bit skinny for the euro and the US subsequent to the Prelim GDP data from the US and Yellen testifying mammal the deserted activities of note in the coming week. Traders should wait for sworn assertion of the breakout upon Monday and gone it is stated, they should spread for any sort of correction in the EURUSD pair as a means of going long upon this pair.

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