Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, gold continues its sideways consolidation but remains near the two-week high reached the day before. The U.S. dollar is regaining ground, partially recovering losses from Friday's session caused by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data.analytics6891cf665d084.jpgThis rebound in the dollar is a key factor capping the upside for gold prices. Additionally, the currently dominant risk appetite in the market limits the potential for further gains in this safe-haven asset.

However, a strong dollar rally appears unlikely, as market participants continue to expect the Federal Reserve to begin a new rate-cutting cycle in September. These expectations are supported by signs of deterioration in the U.S. labor market. As a result, this continues to provide some support to gold prices, preventing a sharp decline. Moreover, lingering uncertainty in trade relations contributes to limiting downside pressure on the precious metal.

China and the U.S.—the world's two largest economies—have yet to reach a final agreement on trade issues. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the decision to extend the 90-day tariff truce, which expires at the end of the month, will be made personally by President Donald Trump. This uncertainty continues to keep investors on edge and may support demand for safe-haven assets.

From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the $3335 resistance level, followed by continued strength, favors the bulls. Moreover, daily chart oscillators are gaining positive momentum, confirming a bullish outlook. Therefore, any further pullback below the immediate support at $3365—where the price is currently hovering—could be viewed as a buying opportunity, with downside likely limited to the $3350–3349 area. A break below this zone, however, would expose gold to accelerated losses toward intermediate support at $3330–3315, en route to the psychological level of $3300.

On the other hand, yesterday's high around $3385 is the nearest barrier before the $3400 psychological level. A sustained move above that could pave the way for further gains toward the next key resistance near $3435. Bullish momentum may then strengthen further, lifting XAU/USD toward its all-time high around the $3500 psychological level, last reached in April.
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Experts predict the growth of GBP/USD to 1.40 by the middle of 2026

The British pound declined against the US dollar against the background of the general strengthening of the US currency, UBS analysts say. At the same time, the pound lagged slightly behind other European currencies, which led to a slight increase in the EUR/GBP pair above the 0.86 level.

The bank's experts report that the latest macroeconomic data from the UK indicate a slowdown in economic growth and a weakening labor market. However, high inflation and steady wage growth constrain the Bank of England's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.

UBS expects the Bank of England to cut the rate only twice by 25 basis points by the end of the year, which is in line with market expectations. Against the background of persistent interest rate differentials, the pound remains attractive for a carry trade, especially in pairs with low-yield currencies such as the Swiss franc.

The investment bank's analysts still recommend the GBP/CHF carry trade strategy, and the pound's fall below 1.33 is described as an opportunity to hedge dollar positions. In the medium term, the bank forecasts the GBP/USD pair to rise to 1.40 by mid-2026.

At the same time, it is expected that the potential for further growth of the pound is limited. In the short term, UBS suggests selling GBP/NOK with growth above 13.90, and also draws attention to the possible strengthening of the Norwegian and Swedish krona against the pound.
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The Bank of England lowered the rate for the third time in 2025 – now to 4%

Following the August meeting, the Bank of England lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 4% per annum. This is the third decrease since the beginning of the year, each of which amounted to 0.25 percentage points. The decision coincided with market expectations.

The Central Bank noted that inflation in the UK has slowed significantly over the past 2.5 years due to tight monetary policy. This allowed the mitigation cycle to begin. However, the price growth rate remains above the target. In June, inflation accelerated to 3.5% due to higher prices for energy and food.

Wage growth is still high, but it has begun to decline and is projected to continue slowing until the end of the year. The Bank of England believes that inflation will peak in September (about 4%) and begin to decline towards the target level of 2% in the medium term.

The UK economy is showing weak growth amid a weakening labor market. The regulator warned that further steps to lower the rate will be cautious and depend on the dynamics of inflationary pressure. MPC continues to closely monitor the impact of wage growth on consumer prices.

After the decision was published, the pound sterling strengthened against the dollar — the GBP/USD pair rose to $1.3408. At the same time, the British FTSE 100 stock index fell by 0.7%.
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A new Fed member – a potential source of risk

Yesterday, the dollar fell in response to news that U.S. President Donald Trump had appointed Council of Economic Advisers Chair Steven Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. "He has been with me since the start of my second term, and his experience in the world of economics is unmatched. I am confident he will do an outstanding job," Trump said.

The president noted that Miran, whose candidacy must be confirmed by the U.S. Senate, will serve only until the end of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's term, which expires in January.

The decision, seen by markets as unexpected and unorthodox, triggered a wave of concern about the future independence and stability of U.S. monetary policy. Investor reaction was driven by several factors. First, while Miran is a respected economist, he has no experience working at a central bank, raising questions about his ability to manage the complex processes of monetary regulation effectively. Second, appointing someone closely linked to the president's administration calls into question the Fed's independence, which has traditionally been a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system. Increased political influence over the Fed could lead to unpredictable consequences, such as artificially lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy in the short term at the expense of long-term stability. Investors fear this could undermine confidence in the dollar and trigger capital outflows.

Miran, who holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University, recently supported Trump's call for interest rate cuts. He is known for presenting his views more measuredly than many of Trump's other advisers. Nevertheless, he has sharply criticized the Fed and proposed changes to the central bank's operations that some might consider unconventional.

Some economists and analysts said Miran was an unexpected choice but one that fits current market needs. "Miran will be another voice in favor of a potentially more accommodative Fed policy. This strengthens confidence that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively before year-end, as it's unlikely the Fed will maintain current rates with three dissenting votes on the Board of Governors. We have officially entered an easing cycle for the markets," Integrity Asset Management said.

Other commentators were more skeptical about Miran's potential influence. "Overall, he is just one member of the entire committee, and he is not going to introduce structural changes or push for a more substantial rate cut," said analysts at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

The U.S. Senate is currently on its annual August recess and is not scheduled to return to Washington until early September. While Miran recently passed a confirmation process for his current position, his new appointment could still take several weeks to approve, even if Republican leaders prioritize the nomination.

EUR/USD technical picture – Buyers now need to secure the 1.1690 level. Only then will they be able to target a test of 1.1730. From there, the path opens toward 1.1760, though doing so without support from major players will be challenging. The ultimate target remains the 1.1800 high. In the event of a decline, significant buying activity is expected only near 1.1655. If no buyers appear there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1610 low or consider long positions from 1.1565.

GBP/USD technical picture – Pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3475, above which it will be difficult to advance. The final upward target would be the 1.3502 level. If the pair falls, sellers will try to retake control at 1.3405. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3375 low, with potential to reach 1.3350.
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European Futures and Wall Street Strengthen, Oil Loses — What's Happening in the Markets?

Global equities extend their rally
Stock markets remain buoyant. Japan and Taiwan posted fresh record highs, while China's blue chips reached their strongest levels in ten months.

Earnings season lifts Europe and Wall Street
European futures added around 0.2 percent, mirroring gains in US contracts. Investor sentiment was boosted by a robust reporting season. According to Goldman, earnings per share for the S&P 500 grew 11 percent year-on-year, with 58 percent of companies raising full-year forecasts.

Retail giants in the spotlight
This week will shed light on consumer spending trends as Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart release their quarterly results.

Spotlight on Jackson Hole
The highlight for monetary policy watchers will be the annual Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver remarks on the economic outlook and monetary stance. A Q&A session, however, does not appear to be on the agenda.

The event will also feature European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in panel discussions.

Rates and bond market tensions
Futures currently price in roughly an 85 percent chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Any shift toward a less dovish tone from Powell could weigh heavily on bond markets.

While short-term yields remain elevated due to Fed expectations, long-term investors continue to worry about inflation, fiscal deficits and the politicization of monetary policy — concerns that are steepening the yield curve.

European bonds react to rising defense costs
Yields on European government bonds continued to climb, partly reflecting expectations that governments will need to borrow heavily to finance expanding defense budgets.

Asia opens the week with cautious optimism
Asian equity markets posted modest gains on Monday ahead of a week expected to be pivotal for US interest rate policy. Oil prices, meanwhile, slipped as the perceived risks to Russian supply appeared to ease.

Record highs in Japan and Taiwan
A stronger appetite for risk pushed Japanese and Taiwanese stock benchmarks to fresh all-time highs. In China, blue chip shares advanced to their strongest level in ten months.

Fed rate cut expectations
Investors currently assign about an 85 percent probability to a quarter-point cut at the Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting, with further easing anticipated by December.

Cheaper borrowing supports equities
The prospect of lower global borrowing costs underpinned stock markets. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.9 percent, reaching yet another record high.

Mixed moves across Asia
The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index edged lower after touching a four-year peak last week. Chinese blue chips rose another 1 percent, extending their quarterly gain to nearly 8 percent.

European and US futures extend gains
Eurozone futures showed modest strength, with EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE both up 0.2 percent and DAX futures advancing 0.1 percent. US markets mirrored the trend: S&P 500 futures rose 0.2 percent, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.3 percent, hovering near record territory.

Earnings season boosts market confidence
Investor sentiment was bolstered by a strong earnings season. S&P 500 companies reported an 11 percent year-on-year increase in earnings per share, with 58 percent of firms raising their annual forecasts.

Tech giants keep outperforming
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the earnings of the largest technology companies remain outstanding. Even before Nvidia publishes its results, the so-called Magnificent Seven are estimated to have boosted earnings per share by 26 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, beating pre-season consensus forecasts by 12 percent.

Spotlight on consumer demand
This week will be crucial in assessing household spending power, with key earnings reports expected from Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart.

Bond markets under pressure
Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have capped short-term Treasury yields, while long-term bonds remain under pressure from stagflation concerns and the mounting budget deficit. This dynamic has created the steepest yield curve since 2021.

European debt markets are facing similar challenges. Anticipation of heavier borrowing to fund defense budgets has pushed German long-term bond yields to their highest levels in 14 years.

Dollar weighed down by Fed expectations
The prospect of looser Fed policy weakened the US dollar, which slipped 0.4 percent against a basket of major currencies last week to 97.851. The greenback firmed slightly versus the yen to 147.46, while the euro held steady around 1.1701 after gaining 0.5 percent in the previous week.

The dollar performed strongest against the New Zealand currency, amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut rates to 3 percent on Wednesday.

Commodities show mixed signals
In commodities, gold hovered at 3343 dollars per ounce after a 1.9 percent weekly loss.

Oil prices faced resistance after Donald Trump backed away from threats to impose new restrictions on Russian exports. Brent crude slipped 0.2 percent to 65.74 dollars a barrel, while US crude eased 0.1 percent to 62.76 dollars.
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Nikkei crashes after SoftBank deal, Dayforce shares soar — what's next?

Wall Street Stalls Ahead of Key Events
US stock markets ended Monday's session with little movement as investors weighed their next steps while awaiting quarterly earnings from major retailers and the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole.

Spotlight on Retail Giants
This week Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to release their financial results. Analysts suggest these reports will shed light on how inflation pressures and ongoing trade uncertainty are shaping consumer behavior in the United States.

Politics on the Sidelines
A Monday meeting at the White House between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had no significant effect on market sentiment.

Consumer Confidence Weakens
Data released Friday showed retail sales rising in line with expectations, yet consumer confidence declined amid growing inflation concerns. On the same day, the Wells Fargo National Association of Home Builders housing index dropped to its lowest reading since December 2022.

Markets Lean on Rate Cut Hopes
Despite the quiet start to the week, Wall Street has posted gains for two consecutive weeks. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a fresh intraday record, supported by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, even as trade uncertainty lingers.

Wall Street Ends Mixed
US stock indexes closed Monday with no clear direction, as some slipped while others posted modest gains.

Closing figures:

Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 34.30 points, or 0.08%, to 44,911.82;
S&P 500 edged down 0.65 points, or 0.01%, to 6,449.15;
Nasdaq Composite rose 6.80 points, or 0.03%, to 21,629.77.
Intel Under Pressure
Intel shares dropped 3.66% after a Bloomberg report suggested that the Trump administration is considering acquiring a 10% stake in the chipmaker.

Dayforce Surges
Workforce management software provider Dayforce saw its stock soar by 26%. The rally followed news that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire the company.

Solar Stocks Shine
Renewable energy companies recorded strong gains. SunRun shares jumped 11.35%, while First Solar advanced 9.69%. The rally came after the US Treasury Department issued updated guidelines for federal clean energy tax credits, which turned out to be less restrictive than investors had feared.

Europe and Asia Await Signals
European markets opened higher on Tuesday, while oil prices slipped as traders weighed diplomatic signals hinting at a potential truce between Russia and Ukraine and looked ahead to upcoming central bank meetings.In Asia, trading remained subdued as investors waited for cues from the Federal Reserve ahead of its annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

European Markets Edge Higher
European stock exchanges closed the day with modest gains, as investors balanced optimism with caution.

European index moves:

STOXX 600 up 0.1%;
FTSE 100 up 0.1%;
CAC 40 up 0.2%;
DAX up 0.1%.
Defense Sector Under Pressure
The European defense stocks index slid 1.3%. Swedish contractor Saab AB led the decline, falling 3.7%.

All Eyes on Jackson Hole
Attention now turns to the annual Federal Reserve symposium scheduled for August 21–23. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to outline the central bank's economic outlook and policy direction.

According to CME FedWatch, markets assign an 83.6% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the September 17 meeting.

Asia Feels the SoftBank Effect
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan dipped 0.2%. In Japan, the Nikkei initially hit fresh records but ended the session down 0.4%. The reversal followed a 4% slump in SoftBank Group shares after the company announced a 2 billion dollar investment in struggling US chipmaker Intel.

Currencies and Commodities
The US dollar weakened by 0.2% to 147.64 yen. The euro gained 0.1% to reach 1.1670 dollars. The dollar index was little changed after a 0.2% rise in the previous session.

US crude fell 0.9% to 62.88 dollars a barrel, while Brent slipped 0.8% to 66.07 dollars. Spot gold advanced 0.3% to 3339.54 dollars an ounce.

Crypto Retreats
Bitcoin declined 1.4% to 114,814.91 dollars, while ether slid 2.7% to 4,224.07 dollars.
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The US Treasury is counting on stablecoins as a source of demand for government debt

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that the cryptocurrency industry will become one of the key buyers of U.S. government bonds in the coming years. Of particular importance, he said, will be stablecoins — digital assets backed by currencies and highly liquid securities like Treasuries.

Bessent has already held talks with leading issuers, including Tether and Circle. As a result of these discussions, the Ministry of Finance intends to increase the issuance of short-term bonds in the coming quarters. This step coincided with the adoption in July of the GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump. The document for the first time consolidated the federal regulation of stablecoins, requiring them to be provided exclusively with «ultra-secure» assets, including treasury securities.

The agency believes that the new law will become a driver of innovation in the digital currency market and at the same time strengthen demand for short-term U.S. obligations. However, the volume of securities issuance, as emphasized in the Ministry of Finance, will depend on the market situation and the positions of investors.

Since January, when Bessent assumed the post of minister, the agency has intensified contacts with the financial sector. The increased attention to the topic is caused by growing concerns about the sustainability of US government finances: independent analysts predict that in the next decade, the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach record levels amid rising borrowing after the adoption of a large-scale budget plan by the Trump administration.
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Bitcoin drops below $113,000, spooking market — bulls and bears locked in stalemate

So far, there's no outright confrontation between crypto bulls and bears, but analysts point to growing tension. The unease is largely tied to Bitcoin's shaky performance, which has been sliding throughout the week. Some expect that Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium could bring relief for BTC.

On Thursday, August 21, Bitcoin traded sideways, hovering at $113,778, down 6.3% over the past seven days. Traders are split almost evenly, with nearly half taking long positions and the other half shorting. Still, many analysts believe the crypto market's long-term bullish structure remains intact.

Ahead of Powell's remarks on Friday, August 22, most Bitcoin traders are bracing for rate uncertainty. With mixed macro signals and shifting investor sentiment, the direction for both US equities and crypto remains unclear.

The July CPI report had been a bullish trigger, fueling hopes of Fed rate cuts and sending Bitcoin to record highs in early August. But the latest CPI release reignited inflation fears, clouding expectations for Fed policy in 2025. As a result, Bitcoin slipped 8% to $114,170 and below, retreating from the $124,128 peak hit on August 14 — marking a week-long decline.

Powell's question: to cut or not to cut? Despite Bitcoin's pullback, markets still price in an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, expects Powell to remain "relatively neutral, to keep his options open." He noted that Bitcoin and other crypto assets are highly sensitive to global liquidity and should respond positively to dovish Fed signals.

But a hawkish tone from Powell could trigger another wave of selling across stocks and crypto. Analysts stress, however, that short-term rate jitters won't derail long-term digital asset adoption, supported by institutional inflows and favorable White House policy.

Retail traders' dilemma: bear market or buy the dip? The sharp drop below $113,000 sparked panic selling among retail investors, pushing the market into a distinctly bearish mood. Yet analysts see this as a classic "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

"Retail traders made a 180-degree shift after Bitcoin failed to recover and broke below $113,000," noted analytics firm Santiment, questioning whether the next bullish cycle is just around the corner.

Market pullbacks during bull runs are considered normal — Bitcoin's so-called "bear traps" have appeared time and again in past cycles.

If history repeats itself and Bitcoin faces a similar depth of correction in 2025, the flagship asset could retreat to $90,000 as early as next month. However, experts conclude that a subsequent rebound to a new all-time high remains possible.

Will September bring new lows for Bitcoin?

In the current environment, the crypto community is trying to determine where Bitcoin might find its bottom. Many analysts and market participants do not rule out a decline of the most capitalized cryptocurrency to $100,000 or even lower.

Analyst Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin could bottom in the $90,000–$93,000 range this September. He is convinced that a "real crash" is ahead, though he allows for a recovery phase after the September drop. Trader Captain Faibik shares a similar outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could be targeting $100,000 in September.

Other community members are leaning toward more optimistic scenarios. Crypto enthusiast Benjamin Cowen argues that BTC will likely move down toward a level defined by moving averages — a trajectory that does not imply breaking below $100,000. Still, like his peers, Cowen is bracing for a "red" September.

The most bullish investors expect the incredible: a surge to $200,000 fueled by a Fed rate cut. At present, markets price the odds of such a decision at 84.9%. Any policy shift could enhance the appeal of high-risk assets like digital currencies and bring greater clarity to the outlook.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

For the second day in a row, gold maintains a negative dynamic, trading near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which was tested three days ago. Traders have scaled back expectations of more aggressive monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve after last week's producer price index data showed signs of mounting inflationary pressures. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid noted on Thursday that the current monetary policy stance of the central bank is "moderately restrictive," expressing caution regarding a September rate cut.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also stressed the importance of maintaining a moderately restrictive policy to fight inflation. She pointed out that the main problem is that inflation remains too high and is moving in an undesirable direction. This has supported the dollar's weekly advance, thereby putting pressure on gold for the second consecutive day. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, said that fresh inflation data prompted him to reconsider the question of rate cuts, indicating that the September policy meeting could result in concrete action.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated her readiness for a September rate cut, taking into account risks related to weaker employment and rising tariffs. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut and expect at least two 25-basis-point reductions before year-end. These expectations were reinforced by Thursday's data, which showed that over three months, jobless claims rose to the highest level in years, while continuing claims reached the highest level in almost four years.

Against this backdrop, it makes sense to closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for new signals on a potential rate cut. This, in turn, will have a significant impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and determine the next stage of movement for low-yielding gold.

From a technical perspective, the Asian session low around 3325 is holding off immediate downside ahead of the 100-day SMA, currently located at 3315. A sustained break below this area could serve as a key trigger for bears. A move lower through the psychological 3300 level toward support at 3270 — and a subsequent break of that level — against the backdrop of slightly negative daily chart oscillators, would suggest that the path is open for deeper losses.

On the other hand, the 3340–3350 level has become a significant near-term barrier. A new wave of short covering above this zone would lift the precious metal toward resistance at 3375. Momentum could then extend toward the psychological 3400 level before XAU/USD targets the supply zone at 3440–3435.
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Trading Signals for GOLD for August 25-29, 2025: sell below $3,378 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

Gold is trading around 3,331, above the 4/8 Murray level, and within the downtrend channel formed since early August.

Friday's bullish momentum, fueled by Powell's dovish comments, pushed gold from the lows of 3,322 up to near 3,380, reaching the top of the downtrend channel.

If gold breaks above the 5/8 Murray level, we could expect a further bullish move. Therefore, the metal could reach the 6/8 Murray level at 3,398 and even the 7/8 Murray level at 3,417.

As long as the gold price remains below the psychological level of $3,400 in the short term, the technical scenario suggests taking short positions with a target of pressure levels around the 0/8 Murray level at $3,281.

Once gold consolidates above $3,400 on the daily chart, it will be a good point to open long positions with a short-term target around the 8/8 Murray level at $3,500.

As long as the gold price remains within the downtrend channel, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell below 3,378 or 3,359.

Resistance is located at 3,378, 3,398, and finally at 3,417.

Support is located at 3,359, 3,349, 3,339, and finally at 2/8 of the Murray line at 3,320.
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