Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

"Golden" Forecasts: Gold at $3,500, $3,700 – Higher and Higher?

Gold forecasts are becoming increasingly dazzling in every sense, as analysts appear to be competing with one another over how high the precious metal could go. Rising geopolitical instability and President Donald Trump's current tariff policy fuel this. The yellow metal becomes a last reliable refuge for many investors in such an environment.

According to James Steel, currency strategist at HSBC, Washington's introduction of new tariffs against its trading partners triggered the sharp rise in the price of gold above $3,000 per ounce. "This is the first time in recent years when geopolitics and economic uncertainty have become the primary drivers of the gold market," the expert emphasizes.

Last week, spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,167.57 per troy ounce. As a result, the yellow metal is up 16% since the beginning of 2025. For reference, gold gained 27% in 2024. Monetary policy easing and concerns over fiscal deficits also contributed to increased investment in gold last year.

The current situation continues to favor gold. Against this backdrop, experts are forecasting unprecedented growth. Given that the precious metal has an inverse correlation with trade flows, gold stands to benefit either way. Trump's tariff stance — including the highest trade barriers enacted by Washington in a century — has also sent new investors rushing into gold, driven by fears of a full-blown trade war.

Gold has now surpassed the U.S. dollar in popularity among safe-haven assets, partly due to the prolonged weakening of the greenback. Additionally, many analysts have noted signs that the USD's status as the world's reserve currency is eroded by ongoing tariff uncertainty. In this environment, gold is outpacing the U.S. dollar. June gold futures on the Comex exchange rose 1.6% to $3,022 per ounce. On Wednesday, April 9, gold traded at $3,045 per troy ounce.

Global Uncertainty and Market Volatility Are Fertile Ground for Gold

Trump has significantly contributed to this environment by upending the global order just 2.5 months into his presidency, signaling that the U.S. will no longer guarantee European security, as it had since World War II. Moreover, the White House has radically shifted the U.S. stance on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The eccentric billionaire has even seriously discussed the possibility of annexing Greenland.

Given the circumstances, currency strategists at Deutsche Bank have revised their gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward, citing geopolitical and trade uncertainty as strong catalysts for demand for safe-haven assets. According to preliminary estimates, the average price of gold will be $3,140 per ounce in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026. The previous forecast was $2,725 and $2,900, respectively. By the end of 2025, Deutsche Bank analysts project that gold will be worth $3,350 per ounce. The bank's 2026 forecast is the most optimistic among major global financial institutions.

Another factor supporting gold is strong central bank demand. According to Deutsche Bank, central banks now account for around 24% of global gold demand — up from less than 10% in 2022.

Many analysts remain optimistic about the near-term prospects for gold. Last week, HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce. However, the bank is less bullish on 2026, expecting a decline to $2,915 per ounce.

Currency strategists at Bank of America (BofA) also aren't forecasting a meteoric rise. According to BofA analyst Michael Widmer, gold will average $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 in 2026. However, he believes spot prices could reach $3,500 per ounce over the next two years.

"Purchasing gold at $3,000 an ounce is more appealing than buying it at $3,500. However, what is the risk involved? It's the possibility of returning to the conditions we faced two years ago—a more favorable global environment with no threat of trade wars and a Federal Reserve open to increasing interest rates. In that case, the economy stabilizes, financial market sentiment improves, and gold trading effectively dries up. But that's a fantasy scenario," Widmer concludes.

Bitcoin struggles to find support as tariff turmoil roils global markets

The flagship cryptocurrency remains in a fragmented state, unable to establish a firm footing. Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and posted losses this week. Nevertheless, experts remain optimistic, anticipating a gradual recovery of the flagship digital asset.

On the evening of Wednesday, April 9, a major rally was recorded across both equity and commodity markets, reflecting investor reactions to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of previously announced tariffs for 90 days.

At one point, every single stock within the broad-market S&P 500 index was in the green. The index rose 8.3%, with only 20 of its components closing in negative territory. Leading the gains were airline stocks (United Airlines, Delta Air Lines) and semiconductor companies (Microchip Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and ON Semiconductor Corp).

According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the White House could soon reach new tariff agreements with the majority of its allies. Talks have already been scheduled with over 70 countries expressing willingness to deepen cooperation with the United States.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from the key 102-point support level, which it had been testing actively earlier this month. It recovered all of Tuesday's losses, climbing back to 103. Investors dumped US Treasuries, which they had previously purchased en masse to hedge against the risk of a global recession triggered by the tariff war. "The buy-the-dip reflex is extremely strong. The recent tech stock sell-off has made market quotes more attractive," crypto expert Chris Beauchamp noted.

An island called China

Later that week, Trump officially announced a 90-day pause on the mutual tariffs initially declared the previous week. The steepest tariffs were imposed on Vietnam (46%), Sri Lanka (44%), and Cambodia (49%). However, countries that did not impose retaliatory measures will now face a reduced tariff of just 10% for the 90 days. China, on the other hand, is a different story—the tariff on Chinese goods has been increased to a staggering 125%. The reason? Beijing's retaliatory move. On Wednesday, April 9, China's authorities raised tariffs on US imports from 34% to a critical 84%.

"We've reached a turning point in the trade war initiated by the US president. This gives countries willing to negotiate on tariff elimination some time to work out a deal," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "Trump has left China on an economic island, completely isolated from the rest of the world," he added. A striking metaphor indeed!

Amid this, the combined market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven", the largest US companies by market cap, surged by more than $1 trillion. With tech giants dominating this group, the Nasdaq index jumped more than 10%, outpacing the S&P 500. And it may not stop there.

Crypto reacts sharply to global instability

Meanwhile, the global crypto market responded with a sell-off across most assets. On Monday, April 7, Bitcoin plunged to $74,500, triggering shockwaves across global financial markets. The situation has since stabilized, but a full recovery is still a long way off.

The bearish market structure deepened when BTC revisited its recent low of $78,600 early in the week. The price now appears to be drifting in a vacuum—neither rebounding nor bottoming out, leaving its direction unclear. Analysts doubt whether the bulls can hold current levels.

From a technical outlook, there's a shimmer of hope for a short-term bullish push. The range of $75,100 to $80,000 offers a potential rebound zone. However, this upside momentum is not considered strong enough to reverse the broader downtrend.

Bitcoin sinks below $80,000: consolidation or another dip?

On April 9, Bitcoin surged above $84,000, gaining more than 8% within a few hours following Trump's unexpected announcement of a global tariff pause. This rally supported a recent forecast by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who suggested that growing economic uncertainty might present an attractive entry point for long-term crypto investors.

Despite this bullish move, Bitcoin faced stiff resistance at $88,800—a high from April 2 when the initial tariff news broke. The top of the Keltner Channel now sits near $88,130, making it a critical resistance zone.

Analysts note that traders who entered during BTC's correction may start taking profits near breakeven levels, forming a potential "wall of selling." If Bitcoin fails to overcome this resistance, the path to the psychological $100,000 level could remain blocked.

The lower border of the Keltner Channel—currently at $73,500—acts as strong support and aligns with a liquidity zone formed during recent consolidation. A drop below $80,000, especially with growing selling pressure, could accelerate the downward move.

Trump's tariff pivot sparks BTC breakout to $84,000

On April 10, Bitcoin gained 12% after Trump dramatically revised his aggressive trade policies, replacing sweeping tariffs with a flat 10% duty, except for China. The policy shift eased investor fears about a full-blown global trade war.

The crypto market responded swiftly. BTC jumped from a low of $74,700 to a peak of $83,600, its strongest single-day gain since March 2025. Leading altcoins followed suit, with Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Solana, and Dogecoin all posting double-digit gains.

The 10% rebound in BTC on April 10 coincided with comments from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who stated that widespread tariff enforcement could trigger a global market correction of up to 20%. However, he also called the situation "an incredible buying opportunity," encouraging investors to act. "I see this more as a buying opportunity than a selling one," said Fink, who also expressed a positive near-term outlook for Bitcoin.

The Trump administration's latest tariff changes affirm Fink's argument that the chaos of the trade war may present seasoned traders with a chance to capitalize on falling prices. Despite lingering bearish risks, many market participants viewed the situation as a green light to reenter the market, turning current uncertainty to their advantage.

Trump, Fed, $3,000 Gold? Markets React to Red Flags

Investors Lose Confidence as Markets Fall as Trump Presses Fed
Asian stock markets and US futures opened the week with significant losses, reflecting growing concerns amid political pressure on the US Federal Reserve and rising trade risks.

President Donald Trump's sharp criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been in the spotlight. Sources say the White House has seriously discussed Powell's resignation, raising questions about the US central bank's independence and sending shockwaves through global markets.

A Weekend Without a Break for Markets
Despite the Easter holidays, which closed most European trading floors on Friday and Monday, a wave of instability swept global exchanges. Low liquidity only increased volatility.

S&P 500 futures fell by 0.75%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan's TWII fell by more than 1%, while Chinese markets, despite the overall negative backdrop, managed to show modest growth.

Trade threats and political pressure hit the dollar
Trump continues to escalate tensions in financial markets with his statements and tariff policy. Investors are increasingly doubting the stability of the dollar and the attractiveness of American assets, traditionally considered a "safe haven" in turbulent times.

Markets reacted especially painfully to the new wave of rhetoric from the president, directed against the Fed and its leadership. The intensification of these attacks has become a catalyst for further loss of confidence.

Currency Swings: Dollar Loses, Gold, Franc Gain
Amid the risk-off trend, the dollar has weakened significantly. The euro has hit a three-year high, the Japanese yen has strengthened to a level not seen since September, and the Swiss franc has soared to a ten-year peak against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, gold, a classic safe haven in times of instability, has risen to record highs, a signal that investors are seeking shelter from the storm raging on the financial horizon.

Is the Fed's Independence in Danger? Experts Sound the Alarm
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern about mounting political pressure on the central bank in an interview on Sunday. He stressed that it is critical to preserve the Fed's ability to set monetary policy without outside interference. According to Goolsbee, the Fed's reputation as the world's leading central bank is based on its independence — and any attempts to undermine that could have long-term consequences for economic stability and investor confidence.

Markets react to nervousness: yields jump
Amid worrying signs from the political front, bond markets are showing mixed dynamics. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 3.5 basis points in Asian trading. At the same time, the two-year notes, which are more sensitive to rate changes, fell by 3.6 basis points.

This reflects growing market expectations for a possible rate cut — especially after Trump put pressure on the Fed's leadership.

Eyes on the giants: reporting season begins
This week, Wall Street's attention is focused on the publication of financial results from tech giants. Among them are holding company Alphabet, semiconductor giant Intel and electric car maker Tesla.

2025 has been a tough year for the so-called "magnificent seven" stocks, with Alphabet down around 20% and Tesla losing almost 40% of its market cap. Investors will be watching quarterly reports closely to see if there is a chance of a reversal.

Trading games continue: uncertainty weighs on businesses
Companies continue to adapt to the changing structure of US tariff policy. Despite temporarily suspending some high tariffs, the White House is maintaining a tough line and increasing pressure in international trade talks.

Relations with China, the world's second-largest economy, remain particularly tense. New rounds of negotiations are going hard, and the prospects for a sustainable agreement remain unclear. The business community is watching developments with concern, as further escalation could lead to new chains of disruptions and market volatility.

South Korea sees warning sign as exports plummet
The latest economic data from South Korea showed a sharp decline in exports in early April, a worrying sign that U.S. tariffs are starting to hit global trade more deeply.

Seoul and Washington are preparing for a new round of talks this week, but market participants are under no illusions: uncertainty is high and disagreements on key issues remain.

Private Conversations and Public Irritation: China and the U.S. Are Again on the Brink
President Trump said Friday that the U.S. and China are continuing to have "good private discussions" despite ongoing trade tensions. But Beijing's diplomacy has been far more measured, with its ambassador to the U.S. making it clear that there will be no constructive dialogue until Washington shows "the right level of respect."

The rhetorical divergence underscores that differences remain deep and the potential for escalation remains high.

Safe Haven Glitter: Gold Rewrites History Again
Gold continues its steady climb. On Monday, the precious metal surpassed $3,370 an ounce, setting a new all-time high. A gain of more than 1% in a day brought gold's year-to-date return to an impressive 26%.

Amid growing geopolitical instability and currency market volatility, investors are increasingly seeking safe havens, and gold, as always, lives up to its status as an "evergreen."

Oil Loses as Iran and the US Draw Closer
Oil prices fell after news of progress in nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. The prospect of a partial normalization of relations eased fears of supply disruptions from one of the key producers in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell 1.75% to $66.77 per barrel, while American WTI also fell by the same 1.75%, reaching $63.55. This is a reminder to the market of how quickly geopolitics can change the direction of price movements.

Cryptocurrency on the rise: Bitcoin renews peaks
Amid the general instability in traditional markets, investors do not forget about digital assets. Bitcoin confidently went up on Monday, adding almost 3% and reaching $87,515 — the highest since the beginning of the month.

The cryptocurrency market remains a volatile alternative for those looking for both protection from inflation and opportunities for speculative growth.

South Korea on the brink of recognition: the market may receive the status of developed
Seoul is making confident steps towards revising its investment image: on Monday, a representative of the South Korean financial regulator said that the probability of including the national stock market in the list of developed markets is extremely high.

This step could open up new horizons for international investors and strengthen the country's position as a key player in the global financial architecture.

Despite the fact that South Korea is the fourth-largest economy in Asia with a highly developed infrastructure, technological superiority and a stable macroeconomics, it is still listed as an emerging market in the MSCI classification.

This discrepancy has long raised questions among both analysts and international players who see in South Korean assets the stability and maturity typical of developed jurisdictions.

Unblocking "shorts": a step towards investors
One of the key barriers to updating the status has long been the ban on short selling. But last month, the country completely lifted the restriction across its entire stock market for the first time in five years, removing one of the main obstacles that both MSCI and major foreign investors had pointed out.

The move was seen as a signal of commitment to transparency, competitiveness, and openness – key criteria for inclusion in the developed market category.

A Crucial Month: MSCI Prepares Classification Update
All eyes now turn to Morgan Stanley Capital International's June index review. Under MSCI's standard process, markets typically go through a one- to two-year observation period before a full reclassification.

If South Korea makes the shortlist, it would be a major step toward future recognition – with the potential for hundreds of billions of dollars of passive investment automatically tracking the MSCI indices.

The main events by the morning: April 22

US stock futures are rising after markets fell due to concerns that Trump is threatening the Fed's independence. On Monday, major indexes fell by more than 2% due to statements about the possible removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump criticized Powell for slowly lowering interest rates and may be preparing the ground for accusations of economic weakness caused by tariff policy.

The exchange price of gold exceeded the mark of $3,500 per troy ounce for the first time in history. The precious metal continues to grow amid a weakening dollar, Trump's criticism of the Fed, and ongoing concerns about the effects of a trade war.

Trump's approval rating in the United States has dropped to a record low of 42%. Polls show that citizens are unhappy with Trump's attempts to increase his own power. Americans have criticized his actions against universities, which he considers «too liberal», as well as his appointment to the post of chairman of the board of directors of the Kennedy Center, a major theater institution in Washington. 83% of respondents believe that Trump should obey the decisions of the federal court.

The US authorities demanded that Google split up the company. The IT giant with a capitalization of $1.81 trillion is accused of having a monopoly on the Internet search market. The court wants to oblige the company to sell the Chrome browser and take steps to increase competition in the «moribund» online search market, including providing advantages to competitors.

The European Union intends to deprive Hungary of the right to vote because of its refusal to support Kiev. Earlier, a referendum on Kiev's accession to the EU was initiated in Budapest. According to local political sources, Hungary will not allow its territory to be used to send European troops to Ukraine.