Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Middle East conflict steals the show as Tesla and Nike reports leave investors cold

S&P 500 remains flat amid Middle East tensions and job data concerns
The U.S. stock index S&P 500 ended Wednesday's trading session nearly unchanged as tech stocks managed to gain, but investors remained cautious due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and anticipation of critical U.S. employment data expected later this week.

Nvidia's gains offset by Tesla's drop
A rise in Nvidia shares by 1.6% provided support to the S&P 500's tech sector. However, Tesla shares declined by 3.5% after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported quarterly vehicle deliveries that fell short of market expectations.

Market eyes on the Middle East
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East after Israel vowed to retaliate for Iran's missile attack on Tuesday. U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he would not back an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in response to the attack and urged Israel to act "proportionately."

Labor market remains resilient
Early Wednesday, data showed that U.S. private sector jobs increased more than expected in September, suggesting continued strength in the labor market. Still, traders remain focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report due Friday, as well as Thursday's jobless claims data, which could further influence market expectations.

With the market in a state of suspense, any surprise data or geopolitical developments could serve as a catalyst for volatility in the days ahead.

Investors brace for earnings season and Fed decisions
U.S. stock indices saw little change on Wednesday as investors prepared for an upcoming wave of earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions. "We're about to see the employment report on Friday, and then next week kicks off the earnings season," commented Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq barely budge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39.55 points, or 0.09%, to close at 42,196.52. The S&P 500 edged up 0.01%, gaining just 0.79 points to end at 5,709.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 14.76 points, or 0.08%, to 17,925.12.

Fed's unexpected move fuels September rally
The stock market wrapped up September with strong gains after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points to support the labor market. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed 19.7% year-to-date.

The probability of another 25 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting now stands at 65.7%, up from 42.6% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Major banks to lead earnings season
JPMorgan Chase and other banking giants will kick off the third-quarter earnings season on October 11, setting the tone for the broader S&P 500 as investors look for signs of stability amid economic uncertainty.

Dockworkers strike paralyzes U.S. ports
Meanwhile, a strike involving 45,000 dockworkers, which has brought shipping at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to a halt, entered its second day on Wednesday. Negotiations between the unions and employers have yet to be scheduled, according to sources.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the strike is costing the U.S. economy approximately $5 billion per day, intensifying concerns over potential supply chain disruptions.

The market remains on edge as investors await further updates that could impact corporate earnings and broader economic trends.

Nike disappoints Wall Street: shares plunge after withdrawing revenue forecast
Nike shares dropped sharply by 7% on Wednesday after the sportswear giant pulled its annual revenue target, leaving investors puzzled over the company's turnaround timeline under new CEO Elliott Hill.

Investor day canceled, adding to uncertainties
In addition to retracting its revenue forecast, Nike also canceled its investor day scheduled for November 19. The company's CFO, Matthew Friend, explained that the decision would provide Hill with "the necessary flexibility to review Nike's strategies and business trends," hinting at possible restructuring.

How does Nike stack up against competitors?
Currently, Nike's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27.98, compared to 27.08 for Deckers and 35.14 for Adidas. Despite the recent decline, Nike shares, trading at $82, have still recovered 10% since the announcement of Hill's appointment in September.

Industry insiders optimistic about Hill's appointment
The CEO of British retailer JD Sports expressed confidence in Hill, stating, "It's good to have someone from within the industry who knows Nike and understands its product range." This suggests that Hill's familiarity with the company could help navigate Nike through its current challenges.

Competitors suffer alongside Nike
Other sportswear stocks weren't immune to the market's jitters: Under Armour and Lululemon both declined by over 2%, while Foot Locker fell by 3%, reflecting broader concerns about supply chain disruptions and sales slowdowns.

Humana plunges amid Medicare warning
Elsewhere, shares of Humana Inc. tumbled 11.8% after the health insurer warned that it expects a drop in enrollment in its top-rated Medicare Advantage plans for seniors in 2025. This statement has sparked worries about the broader healthcare sector's outlook.

With markets digesting these developments, Nike's outlook remains under scrutiny as the company grapples with uncertain forecasts and growing competition.

Wall Street braces for key Fed moves as global markets wobble
Global markets displayed mixed performance as traders digested U.S. labor data and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. "Given the latest job numbers in the private sector, the bond market is betting against a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting," noted Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Indices move sideways
The MSCI global equity index (MIWD00000PUS) dipped by 0.04% to 845.49 points, reflecting overall cautious sentiment. Earlier, the STOXX Europe 600 managed to close with a slight gain of 0.05% at 521.14 points.

Oil prices under pressure, but holding ground
On the energy front, U.S. crude oil rose 0.39% to $70.10 per barrel, while Brent finished the day at $73.90 per barrel, up 0.46%. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upward momentum was capped by a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories.

Treasury yields extend gains
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory: the benchmark 10-year yield climbed by 4 basis points to 3.783%, compared to 3.743% the previous day. Meanwhile, 30-year bonds saw a 4.9 basis point rise, closing at 4.1299%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate expectations, edged up 1.4 basis points to 3.6352%.

Yield curve hints at cautious optimism
A closely-watched segment of the U.S. yield curve, measuring the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, remained at a positive 14.6 basis points — suggesting that investors are not pricing in a near-term recession.

Dollar strengthens amid market uncertainty
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.34% to 101.60. The euro slipped by 0.16% to $1.1049, while the dollar surged 2% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.43.

Gold loses its luster
In the precious metals market, spot gold declined by 0.14% to $2,659.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell by 1.02% to $2,640.00. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

With traders balancing geopolitical risks and economic indicators, market sentiment remains fragile, and any new developments could tip the scales in unexpected directions.
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Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy, Oil Rising: How the U.S. Balances Labor Market Gains and Geopolitics

Dow Ends Week at Record High, Nasdaq Shows Solid Gains
The Dow hit record highs on Friday, while the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of more than 1%, driven by an unexpectedly strong increase in U.S. employment, which somewhat allayed investors' fears about possible economic weakness.

Record Job Growth
September was the month with the most significant job growth in the past six months. According to the published data, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Experts took this report as a signal that the economy remains resilient and does not lose momentum.

"The data confirms that we can expect stable economic activity in the fourth quarter," commented Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Impact on Interest Rates
The improving economic situation, however, may slow down the interest rate cuts that were previously expected. Cardillo noted that positive news from the labor market will most likely slow the process of further rate cuts.

Traders also adjusted their expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for November 6-7. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 8% from 31% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Small Caps, Financials Rise
Amid the broader market rally, small caps and financials stood out. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, while the S&P 500 Index rose 1.6%.

The trading session's results showed that despite the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future actions, investors remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Spirit Airlines Shares Plunge, Airlines Mixed
Spirit Airlines shares plunged 24.6% on news that the company may be in bankruptcy talks with bondholders. While Spirit plunges into crisis, other airlines are rallying. Thus, Frontier Group shares soared by 16.4%, United Airlines jumped by 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines rose by 3.8%.

Growth of leading indices
Friday's session ended with growth of the main American stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 341.16 points (0.81%), reaching 42,352.75. The broad market index S&P 500 also added 0.90% and closed at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated growth by 1.22%, ending the day at 18,137.85.

Weekly results amid geopolitical instability
Although the main indices showed growth on Friday, their results remained modest for the week. Strong investor concerns are associated with the tense situation in the Middle East. The Dow added just 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq also ended the week with a symbolic gain of 0.1%.

Energy on the rise
The energy sector showed notable gains thanks to a sharp jump in oil prices, which is also associated with political instability in the Middle East. The S&P energy index rose 1.1% on Friday and showed an impressive 7% gain for the week, which was the largest weekly gain since October 2022.

The dynamics in the markets highlight how geopolitical risks and corporate news can have diametrically opposed effects on different sectors of the economy.

Biden urges Israel to consider alternatives in the conflict
US President Joe Biden suggested that if he were in Israel's place, he would consider other measures besides attacks on Iranian oil facilities. He also said he believed Israel had not yet made a final decision on how to respond to Iran's missile strikes this week.

Rivian Shares Slide
Rivian shares fell 3.2% after reporting disappointing production data. The electric vehicle startup cut its full-year guidance and reported delivering fewer vehicles than planned in the third quarter.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Investors are eagerly awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 next week. Particular attention will be focused on major financial players like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, which will report on October 11.

Stock Market Optimism
Investor optimism remains as the S&P 500 has posted a 20.6% gain for the year. Many are hoping that quarterly results will meet high expectations, supporting the continued rally in stock markets.

US Port Backlogs Expected to Ease
Ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have reopened, but shipping backlogs may take time to clear as logistical challenges persist. Advancing Stocks Outnumber Declining Stocks

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.72 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher, at 2.20 to 1 in favor of advancing stocks.

Highs and Lows on the Stock Exchanges
The S&P 500 Index posted 33 new 52-week highs and just one new low. The Nasdaq Composite posted 98 new highs and 91 new lows.

Trading Volume on U.S. Exchanges Falls
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 10.91 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.03 billion. Despite this, global markets remained positive amid strong U.S. labor market data.

Global Markets and the Dollar's Rise
MSCI's global stock index rose, and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level since August. This came after an unexpectedly strong employment report eased investor fears of a possible economic slowdown.

Oil prices rise amid geopolitical risks
Oil prices ended the week with their biggest gain in a year, driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of a wider regional conflict. However, further gains were curbed after US President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from an immediate attack.

Strong US employment data
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, well above the 140,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and data for August were revised up, indicating a stable US labor market.

Reaction to Treasuries and Fed actions
Amid a stronger-than-expected employment report, US Treasury yields rose to their highest since August. This has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in November has risen to 97%, up from 68% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Economic data continues to have a significant impact on the market, causing forecast revisions and creating dynamic changes in investor strategy.

Market Reaction to Strong Employment Data
U.S. stocks responded positively to strong employment data despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish sentiment. This, according to Julia Hermann, a strategist at New York Life Investments, highlights the fact that investors are now focusing on economic growth, even if it comes with higher interest rates.

"The market has been able to adapt well to this shift, which suggests a constructive approach to the economic outlook," Hermann said, pointing to strong moves in Treasuries and stocks in recent days.

Economic relief: Ports reopen
The US economy also got some breathing room as ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast reopened. Dock workers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending one of the sector's largest strikes in 50 years. However, clearing up the backlog of supplies that has accumulated during the strike could take some time.

Global indices and rising oil prices
The MSCI World Index ended the day up 0.57%, reaching 847.12 points, although it had fallen 0.7% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index also showed gains, adding 0.44%.

Investors continue to closely monitor events in the Middle East. The question of Israel's response to the missile strikes launched by Iran is particularly acute. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran and its allies have no intention of backing down.

Oil Prices Rise
Oil prices continued to rise. US crude rose 0.9% to $74.38 a barrel, while North Sea Brent added 0.55% to end the day at $78.05 a barrel. This highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks weighing on energy markets.

The current situation in global markets shows that investors are balancing positive economic news with increasing tensions on the international stage.

The dollar strengthens amid strong employment data
The US dollar showed significant strength, reaching a seven-week high. This is due to the fact that fresh employment data forced traders to revise their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track to end the week with the largest gain since September 2022.

Dollar Index Movement
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major global currencies, rose 0.56% to 102.48. The euro, by contrast, weakened 0.5% to $1.0976, while the Japanese yen lost 1.25%, pushing the dollar higher to 148.77 yen.

Treasury yields rise
U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The benchmark 10-year note rose 12.5 basis points to 3.975%, while the 30-year yield rose 7.9 basis points to 4.259%. Yields on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, rose particularly sharply, adding 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold Slips
Gold prices slipped on the back of a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a major Fed rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.23% to $2,649.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell, falling 0.38% to $2,647.10 an ounce.

The economic outlook has put precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, under pressure as investors reassess their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.
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Who Will Hold Wall Street Back? Amazon and Alphabet Under Attack, Pfizer Takes the Lead

Wall Street Closes in the Red as Investors Brace for New Challenges
US stock markets closed Monday with the major indexes down about 1% as Treasury yields rose, driven by traders' revised forecasts for the Federal Reserve's future policy and concerns about the impact of instability in the Middle East on global oil prices. Escalation and anticipation of new data

Market participants continue to analyze economic indicators and prepare for the start of the earnings season for major companies. Additional concerns are caused by the approaching Hurricane Milton, which is expected to reach the United States in the coming days. Recall that Hurricane Helene, which recently swept across the country, claimed more than 200 lives and affected six states, leaving significant damage and requiring large-scale restoration work.

Corporate news: a blow to the giants
Investor sentiment worsened after a US court decision against Alphabet, which will have to reconsider its approach to mobile applications. This is due to the need to expand the capabilities for Android users, which may affect the company's profitability. In turn, analysts' forecasts caused a decline in the shares of such tech giants as Amazon and Apple.

Rising bond yields: Fed rate revision
Friday's employment report turned out to be more optimistic than expected, which prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding future Fed decisions. Traders have now virtually ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Moreover, there is a 14% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Record 10-Year Note Yield
The adjustment in interest rate expectations has led to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. For the first time in two months, the yield on 10-year US government securities has exceeded 4%, which has become an additional factor of pressure on the stock market.

Experts continue to monitor the situation and predict possible fluctuations depending on new macroeconomic data and corporate reports, which can determine the further direction of the markets.

Investors await key economic signals
The financial world is eagerly preparing for the publication of the consumer price index for September and the start of the third quarter earnings season, which can set the direction for the markets in the coming months. Attention is also focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next month. With the first quarterly earnings results from major banks already underway, market participants will be closely monitoring the sector to assess the economic situation and possible regulatory measures.

Geopolitics heighten risks in the Middle East
In parallel with economic expectations, tensions in the Middle East are increasing, causing concern among investors. The Lebanese group Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on northern Israel, including the major port city of Haifa. In response, the Israeli military is demonstrating its readiness to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon. Concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict are adding to the turbulence in stock and commodity markets.

Leading indices decline
The main US indices closed trading with significant losses on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.51 points (0.94%) and closed at 41,954.24. The broad S&P 500 fell 55.13 points, or 0.96%, to 5,695.94, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 213.94 points, or 1.18%, to end the day at 17,923.90.

Fear Index Soars
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often seen as a gauge of market uncertainty and panic, jumped 3.4 points to 22.64, its biggest one-day gain in a month and a half and its highest close since early August, signaling heightened nervousness among market participants.

Energy Gains on Oil Price Jump
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, only energy ended the day in the green, up 0.4%. Oil prices continued to rise amid concerns about potential supply disruptions due to the escalation in the Middle East, leading to a fifth straight day of gains for U.S. crude futures, which rose 3.7%.

Worst Losers: Utilities and Communications
Utilities were the worst performers among all sectors, falling 2.3%. The communications sector was also hurt by a significant decline in Alphabet shares, with the tech giant's stock falling 2.5%, continuing a string of negative news for the company.

Stock analysts continue to closely monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could impact further market dynamics in the coming days.

Giants Fall: Apple and Amazon Under Pressure
One of the most notable moves in the market was a sharp decline in Apple shares after Jefferies analysts changed their outlook on the stock from a "buy" to a "hold." As a result, the company's shares fell by 2.3%, which was the largest decline among the components of the S&P 500 index on the day. Following it, Amazon shares also came under pressure, ending the trading session with a decline of 3%. This happened against the backdrop of a rating downgrade by Wells Fargo, which increased investor pessimism towards the e-commerce giant.

Generac in the Spotlight Amid Hurricane
At the opposite extreme of the index, Generac Holdings was the company whose shares soared by 8.52%. The growth was caused by increased demand for generators and backup power systems, which is associated with expectations of another hurricane approaching the United States. Investors are betting that demand for the company's products will increase significantly in the event of major disruptions and power outages.

Pfizer on the Rise with Activist Investor
Shares in pharmaceutical giant Pfizer rose 2% after news that hedge fund Starboard Value had acquired a stake in the company worth about $1 billion. The entry of a major shareholder known for his active influence on the management of companies has fueled optimism among investors who expect the new strategic stake could spur growth.

Air Products and Chemicals Succeeds: Mantle Ridge's Bet
Shares in Air Products and Chemicals also saw a strong move, closing with an impressive 9.5% gain after news that hedge fund Mantle Ridge had increased its stake in the company, raising expectations for a positive change in the company's strategy.

Overall Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment prevails
Despite positive results from some companies, the overall market sentiment remained negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 2.73 to 1. There were 222 new highs and 55 new lows on the day, highlighting the significant volatility in the market.

On the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the picture was even grimmer, with 2,988 stocks ending the day in the red against 1,292 gainers, reflecting a ratio of 2.31 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 34 new yearly highs and just two new lows, while the Nasdaq reported 83 highs and 118 new lows, highlighting the bearish sentiment prevailing among market participants.

Trading Volumes Decline
Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 11.39 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.06 billion shares. The decline in activity points to uncertainty among market participants, who are likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of upcoming economic and corporate events.

Global Markets Under Pressure: U.S. Bond Yields Rise
Global stock indices began the new week in negative territory, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise steadily. Benchmark 10-year bonds rose above 4%, signaling to investors that the Federal Reserve may be changing its monetary policy. The gain was the highest since early August and confirmed that market participants are preparing for a less aggressive rate cut by the Fed.

Yields hit record high after strong employment data
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.033%, the highest since August 1 and the first time it has been above 4% since August 8. The reason was last Friday's employment report, which was much better than expected and significantly changed expectations for the central bank's next steps. Investors believe that the Fed may take a more cautious stance and avoid sharp rate cuts, which has led to a revision of market forecasts.

Rate change probability: the market has adjusted expectations
The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is now estimated at 84.6%, and the chances that the regulator will leave rates unchanged have increased to 15.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, the market was confident that a 25 basis point cut was imminent and even priced another, larger 50 basis point cut at 34.7%.

Strategists Warn of a Possible Reversal
"The market has changed its outlook dramatically, from expecting a significant rate cut in November to expecting rates to remain unchanged," said Gennady Goldberg, chief rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. He said the shift in expectations occurred in just a few days, amid positive macro data that has forced investors to rethink their positions.

"It would be surprising for the Fed to back off from further cuts so quickly after the recent 50 basis point cut," Goldberg added. He stressed that the market is still in flux and much will depend on data in the coming weeks.

Outlook for the Future: Cautious Optimism or Pause?
Financial analysts agree that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take any drastic steps, given that the recent rate cuts have already caused significant volatility in the markets.

Instead, the regulator may prefer to wait and see how previous decisions affect the economy and inflation. At the same time, some market participants warn that current expectations may change again if future economic data is not as optimistic as the latest employment figures.

The market situation remains tense, and any change in expectations could affect Treasury yields, which in turn will affect stock performance and overall volatility.

US markets close in the red: only the energy sector showed growth
Trading on Wall Street on Monday ended with quotes falling, and only the energy sector was able to stay in positive territory. Shares of energy companies included in the S&P 500 index showed growth amid continuing rise in oil prices. This is due to concerns that the deepening crisis in the Middle East could lead to disruptions in the supply of raw materials and restrictions on exports.

Global indices under pressure: MSCI goes into the red
The MSCI world share index lost 3.66 points (0.43%), falling to 843.74. This was the fifth decline in the last six trading sessions. The tense situation in global markets reflects increasing caution among investors ahead of important economic data. At the same time, the European STOXX 600 index managed to break into positive territory, closing with a gain of 0.18%. Despite this, the rise was limited due to pressure on sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, such as real estate and utilities.

Treasury yields again went up
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped by 4.3 basis points, reaching 4.024%. This follows a recent revision to expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. Short-term 2-year notes, whose yields are closely linked to interest rate expectations, also rose 5.7 basis points to 3.989%. Earlier in the session, their yield rose to 4.027%, the highest since August 20.

Yield Curve Signals Sentiment Shift
Investors are closely watching the behavior of the Treasury yield curve, which is considered an important indicator of economic expectations. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields, which has been inverted for some time, is now positive at 3.3 basis points.

This is the first time the curve has shown a sustained increase since briefly falling into negative territory on September 18. An inversion of the yield curve is traditionally seen as a harbinger of a recession, and its return to positive territory may signal an easing of concerns about an economic downturn.

Awaiting Key Data: All Eyes on CPI
Economic uncertainty remains as key U.S. macroeconomic data is not due until Thursday. Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues said the central bank was now shifting its focus from fighting inflation to maintaining labor market stability. The announcement triggered a revision in market expectations, adding uncertainty to the near-term rate outlook.

Market participants are now taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping for more data to help clarify the path the Fed will take in managing monetary policy.

Top Fed Officials Set to Speak: Markets Await Signals
Market participants are eagerly awaiting speeches from several key Federal Reserve officials this week. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak on Monday, which could shed light on the current sentiment of the Fed and provide additional clues about future rate management.

Kashkari: US economy showing resilience
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that despite signs of a slowdown, the labor market remains strong, supporting overall economic stability. He said the Fed's goal is to maintain current labor market conditions even as rates are lowered, which should support sustainable growth. The statements confirm that the Fed is prepared to tread carefully to avoid abrupt changes in the economy.

Oil Market Shows Solid Gains
Oil prices continue to rise amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further supply disruptions. U.S. crude oil rose 3.71% to $77.14 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude also rose 3.69% to close the day at $80.93 a barrel. Energy demand is picking up, with traders keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East for fear of further disruptions to supply chains.

Dollar at a crossroads: currency gyrations continue
The dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.05% to 102.48. The euro, meanwhile, was also down slightly to $1.0973. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened, rising 0.42% against the dollar to close the day at 148.09 yen after recently hitting a seven-week high of 149.13. The British pound also slipped, losing 0.22% to end the day at $1.3083. This points to continued volatility in currency markets, where investors are assessing the risks and prospects for monetary policy in the world's largest economies.

BoJ prepares for rate hike: wage growth will be key factor
The Bank of Japan said wage growth is becoming more sustainable, which is helping to boost consumer activity. As companies across the country pass on higher costs to consumers, the Japanese economy is moving closer to meeting the conditions for raising interest rates. This could be a significant step forward for the Bank of Japan, which has long maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy.

Analysts say that any changes in central bank policy could significantly affect sentiment in global markets. Investors will be watching the Fed's speeches and news from Japan to understand how events will develop and what actions the world's largest central banks may take in the coming months.
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PepsiCo Leads Gains, Tech Boosts Nasdaq as Investors Brace for Inflation Surprises

Tech Returns: Wall Street Ends Day on a Positive Note
U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday, partially recouping losses from the previous session. Investors turned their attention back to the tech sector as attention shifts to upcoming inflation data and the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

Recovering from the Crash: How Did Wall Street Overcome Monday's Slump?
The major indexes fell sharply earlier in the week amid rising Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and a reassessment of U.S. interest rate expectations. Each of the three major indexes lost about 1%.

However, falling bond yields sent the market into a buying frenzy on Tuesday, with attention once again focused on high-growth stocks that benefit from lower borrowing costs. As a result, investors increasingly bought shares of tech giants, which are traditionally sensitive to changes in the cost of capital.

Tech on the Rise: Palantir and Palo Alto Lead
The information technology sector led the S&P 500's gains, adding 2.1%. The biggest contributors were Palantir Technologies, which jumped 6.6%, and Palo Alto Networks, which gained 5.1%.

The Magnificent Seven Are Back: Nvidia Sets the Tone
Among the "magnificent seven" tech titans, Nvidia has attracted particular attention. Its shares soared by 4.1%, recording the largest daily gain in the last month. Other tech giants such as Apple, Tesla and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) were also in the green, adding between 1.4% and 1.8%.

Slight Growth Amid Expectations
Despite the positive mood, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed to rise only slightly compared to last week's levels. However, the tech sector continues to attract investors' attention amid expectations of new inflation data and corporate earnings reports that could set the direction of the market's future.

Confident Rise: Major US Indexes End the Day on a Positive Note
On Tuesday, US stock indexes once again demonstrated upward momentum, recouping some of the losses from the previous days.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.97%, rising 55.19 points to 5,751.13. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, adding 259.01 points to 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 126.13 points, or 0.30%, to end the day at 42,080.37.

Rates Are the Key Driver: What's Happening to Trader Sentiment?
Despite the positive momentum, investors continue to closely monitor any signals that could hint at the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. A decline in Treasury yields has been a catalyst for buying in the tech sector, but uncertainty around interest rates continues to dominate the market.

Throughout the year, market participants have been held hostage by the Fed, scrutinizing every macroeconomic report for hints of a possible policy shift. The main question on investors' minds is: when and at what speed will the Fed begin its long-awaited rate cuts?

Expectations shift: All eyes on inflation data
Last week, economic data, including a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday, forced the market to slightly revise its expectations. Investors began pricing in a lower probability of an aggressive rate cut. Instead of a 50 basis point cut, most analysts now expect the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting in November.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

Crucial Benchmark: Inflation to Lead the Way
The next big move in this "expectations game" will come on Thursday, when the CPI data is released. It is these numbers that will be critical to understanding the Fed's next moves and how soon the regulator will begin to ease its tight policy. Any deviation from the forecasts can immediately affect the behavior of markets and investor sentiment.

In any case, interest rates will remain the focus of market attention in the coming days, and any changes in macroeconomic data will be closely monitored to see which way the scales will tip – towards further easing or maintaining tight policy by the Fed.

Markets at a Crossroads: Inflation and Employment Are Crucial Indicators for the Fed
Leading macroeconomic reports continue to be the focus of investors' attention, shaping expectations for the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. According to Jason Pride, head of investment strategy at Glenmede, it is the latest labor market data and the consumer price index (CPI) that will be the key benchmarks for the Fed ahead of their next meeting.

"If the CPI report comes in within the forecast range, this will be a signal for the regulator to limit the rate cut by 25 basis points in November," Pride said, commenting on the current expectations of market participants.

Sectoral confusion: who won and lost in the trading?
Amid the mixed movement of stocks on Tuesday, most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended the day in positive territory, but there were exceptions. Two sectors ended in the negative zone: materials and energy. The materials index (.SPLRCM) fell by 0.4%, which happened against the backdrop of a decline in metals prices. Investors lost optimism about possible measures to support the economy from the Chinese government, which led to a decrease in quotes in this segment.

Amid the general pessimism, shares of major Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also felt the pressure. For example, Alibaba Group, JD.com and PDD Holdings fell by 5.4%, 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively, following the decline of Chinese domestic indices.

Energy sector under attack: why did oil retreat?
The biggest losers were the energy sector (.SPNY), which fell by 2.6% - the largest daily drop since August 20. The reason is the correction in oil prices after their rapid rise at the beginning of the week. Concerns about slowing global demand and uncertainty around economic stimulus in China weakened support for oil, which was reflected in the quotations of energy companies.

Earnings season: the market awaits banking giants
Investors are also focusing on the third-quarter earnings season. This Friday, attention will be focused on large US banks, which will be the first to present their financial results. According to analysts at LSEG, the average earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is expected to be around 5%.

PepsiCo Surprises: Earnings Beat Expectations
Among the companies that reported on Tuesday, PepsiCo stood out. The largest maker of beverages and snacks rose 1.9% after publishing adjusted earnings per share data that beat market expectations. Despite cutting its full-year sales growth forecast, investors took the company's results as a positive sign, which helped support the rise in its shares.

Amid growing interest in data and macroeconomic guidance, the market continues to balance expectations for Fed easing with concerns about global economic risks. The next earnings reports could be a determining factor for the future direction of stock markets.

Wall Street Trading: Investors Recover Losses Awaiting New Data
US stock markets ended Tuesday on a positive note after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted strong gains. With geopolitical pressure easing and tech sector signals up, stock indexes were able to partially recover from their previous declines. Total trading volume on US exchanges was 11.57 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.1 billion shares.

US Rally Overshadows Weak Chinese Stimulus
The rally in global markets was largely driven by a rally on Wall Street, which was able to offset investor disappointment over the lack of concrete support measures from China. Market participants are eagerly awaiting details on possible stimulus measures, but for now their attention is shifted to upcoming macroeconomic reports in the US and the start of the quarterly earnings season.

Technology lifts the index: S&P 500 is back in the game
US indices showed a confident rebound yesterday after falling by 1% the day before. A particularly powerful leap was recorded in the technology sector, where the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.97%, rising by 55.19 points, and closed at 5,751.13. In turn, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) strengthened by 1.45%, jumping by 259.01 points and ending the session at 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.30%, increasing by 126.13 points to 42,080.37.

Monday's decline: what caused it?
The decline at the start of the week was caused by concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a reassessment of expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, increased concerns that the Fed will not rush to ease its policy, which led to a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

Waiting for a new signal: what will inflation show?
All attention is now focused on fresh inflation data, which will be published on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) will be an important marker for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, this could reinforce current expectations that the Fed will take a tougher stance on interest rates.

Banking sector prepares for the start of the reporting season
Investors are also preparing for the start of the corporate reporting season. The largest US banks, which are traditionally the first to disclose their financial results, will give the start later this week. Attention will be focused on their comments on the state of the economy and the outlook for the monetary policy shift.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Markets?
With US indices recovering and geopolitical concerns easing, investor sentiment remains heavily dependent on upcoming macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. Inflation, the labour market and the Fed's strategy will all shape the trading dynamics in the coming weeks, impacting investors' appetite for risk assets and, therefore, the sustainability of the current rally.

European Markets Under Pressure: What Went Wrong?
European stock indices ended lower on Tuesday as investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete details on China's new fiscal stimulus. Market expectations were not met, leading to a fall in stocks focused on Chinese demand, such as miners and luxury goods makers.

Global Indicators: Who Managed to Hold Their Ground?
MSCI's global share index showed a small gain, rising 0.15% to 844.96 points, thanks to a partial recovery in the US and Asian markets. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.55%, reflecting the general mood of pessimism on the continental markets.

Hong Kong in the epicenter of turmoil: Hang Seng index falls at a record pace
The main disappointment was the dynamics of Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which fell by 9.4% - the largest drop since 2008. This happened after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie, who assured that the country's economy is "confidently" moving towards its goals for 2024. Moreover, he noted that the authorities intend to direct 200 billion yuan (about 28.36 billion US dollars) to support regional projects and investment in infrastructure. However, investors were expecting much more, as the lack of concrete steps and new support measures has raised doubts about Beijing's ability to effectively counter the current economic downturn.

Chinese Stocks Slip: Mistrust of Government Words
After the end of the national holidays, Chinese stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI300 showed sharp declines, falling by 4.6% and 5.9%, respectively. These losses effectively "ate up" a significant part of recent gains accumulated amid expectations of a large-scale economic stimulus. The decline in indices was a response to the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese government's plans and the lack of clear signals about further economic stimulus.

Bonds and Rates: The US in Waiting Mode
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market saw a slight decline in yields, reflecting investor caution in an uncertain environment. Market participants continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's signals, trying to understand how macroeconomic data and the regulator's positioning will affect the trajectory of interest rates.

What's Next? Investors Look for New Benchmarks
Amid a general decline in stock markets, investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The focus remains on the upcoming inflation and corporate profit reports in the US. In the coming days, it is these data that will determine the further direction of both US and international indices. Any surprises, be they positive or negative, could trigger significant changes in the markets, especially against the backdrop of fragile confidence in the prospects for China's economic recovery.

While markets are looking for new reference points, the issue of trust in the actions of central banks and governments comes to the fore: their decisions can either support investor sentiment or exacerbate volatility in financial markets.

The intrigue remains: markets are wondering what the Fed will do
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is estimated at 87.3%. However, there is still a small chance - 12.7% - that the Fed will choose to leave rates unchanged. Just a week ago, the market had a different view: expectations for a rate cut were almost fully priced in, but uncertainty about the size of the next step has reduced the likelihood of a more aggressive easing by 50 basis points.

US Treasury yields remain stable
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a key benchmark for markets, fell by 0.6 basis points to 4.02%. Such a small change indicates continued caution amid ongoing speculation about the Fed's next steps and the macroeconomic situation in the country.

Oil: from recovery to correction
After the recent rally triggered by geopolitical risks, oil prices have sharply corrected downwards. The main driver of the decline is easing concerns about supply disruptions amid the military standoff in the Middle East and improving weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. WTI crude lost 4.63% to $73.57 a barrel, while Brent crude also fell 4.63% to close at $77.18 a barrel.

Middle East in Focus: Netanyahu Expands Offensive
Military tensions in the Middle East continue, weighing on global markets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that airstrikes had killed two key successors to the slain Hezbollah leader, in the latest escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, the group's deputy leader left the door open for ceasefire talks, raising hopes for a possible easing of tensions. The comments came just hours after Israel expanded its offensive against Iran-backed militias.

Currency Markets: Dollar under pressure, pound and euro in positive territory
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was unchanged, closing at 102.48. Meanwhile, the euro showed a slight strengthening, adding 0.04% to $1.0978. The Japanese yen weakened by 0.07%, and the dollar rose to 148.29 yen per unit of the American currency. In contrast, the pound sterling strengthened by 0.13%, rising to $1.31, demonstrating confidence amid relative stability in European markets.

Uncertainty remains: what lies ahead for markets?
The current fluctuations in financial markets reflect the ambivalent mood of investors. Amid geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets, traders' attention is shifting to macroeconomic reports and upcoming central bank meetings. The publication of US inflation data and further signals from the Fed could become catalysts for both further growth and a new round of volatility on global markets.
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USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair pulls back earlier on Thursday after reaching its highest level since August, trading with a moderately negative bias.

The intraday pullback lacks a specific fundamental driver, and amid uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans, it is likely to remain limited. According to data released on Tuesday, Japan's real wages for August declined after two months of growth. Household spending also decreased, raising doubts about the strength of private consumption and the durability of the economic recovery.

Moreover, the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey, released today, revealed that the proportion of Japanese households expecting price increases within a year was 85.6% in September, down from 87.5% the previous month. Additionally, another report from the Bank of Japan showed that the CGPI – the Corporate Goods Price Index, which measures the price that companies charge each other for goods and services – unexpectedly increased to 2.8% year-over-year in September. At the same time, reduced import costs suggest that price pressure from raw material costs is easing. All these factors, along with pointed remarks from Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on monetary policy, have reduced expectations for further rate hikes. Consequently, this is generally expected to limit the yen's appreciation.

The U.S. dollar is moving toward a new eight-week high as traders fully assess the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These expectations were reinforced by the minutes of the FOMC's September meeting, released on Wednesday, which indicated that in the face of high inflation, sustained economic growth, and low unemployment, some members would prefer only a 25 basis point rate cut. This continues to support the U.S. dollar, providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Today, before opening new directional positions, traders may want to wait for the release of the latest U.S. inflation data. The Core CPI – Consumer Price Index – will be released later during the North American session. This will be followed by the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. These data could play a key role in shaping market expectations regarding the direction and size of the Fed's next rate decision, potentially boosting demand for the U.S. dollar and helping to determine the short-term trajectory for the USD/JPY pair.

For confirmation that the multi-week uptrend has ended, strong follow-up selling is needed.

Last week's breakout above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) favors the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain far from the overbought zone and are gaining positive momentum, indicating that the most favorable direction for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside.

Therefore, any significant dip can be viewed as a buying opportunity near the 148.70–148.65 area. This zone should help limit the pair's decline to the key psychological level of 148.00. A break below this level could trigger technical selling, pulling spot prices to intermediate support at 147.35, with further declines toward the next round levels of 147.00 and 146.50.

Conversely, a push beyond the Asian session high of 149.54 could enable the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00, and climb higher.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today is the second consecutive day of positive momentum for gold, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Gold continues to gain positive momentum as markets anticipate additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The sharp rise in weekly jobless claims in the U.S. indicates signs of weakness in the labor market, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue reducing interest rates. This, in turn, leads to a modest decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the upward momentum of gold.

Following the release of stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data in the U.S. yesterday, investors have ruled out the possibility of another substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These developments, following stronger-than-expected inflation data, helped the U.S. dollar halt its corrective pullback from the mid-August high, posing a headwind for gold.

Today, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and statements from the Federal Reserve are key indicators to watch for short-term momentum.

Technical Analysis: A solid rebound from the psychological level of $2600 and a subsequent move above the $2630 level favor the bulls. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the precious metal is upward. Consequently, further strength toward the resistance level of $2656 and into the supply zone at $2672 appears likely. From there, momentum could lift the XAU/USD pair toward its recent high near $2700. If surpassed, this level could pave the way for the continuation of the established multi-month upward trend.

On the other hand, the Asian session low around the $2630 level serves as support. A break below this level could challenge the key $2600 support. A convincing break beneath this psychological level could signal deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair could then continue its corrective decline toward the next support zone near $2560, progressing toward the $2532 level before ultimately descending to the psychological level of $2500.
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EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. PMI Indices, Fed's Verbal Signals, Lagarde's Interview

Last week, the EUR/USD pair dipped into the 1.08 range for the first time since August. EUR/USD bears managed to drive the price down to the lower end of the 1.08 range (with a low recorded at 1.0812) but did not venture into the 1.07 range. Moreover, toward the end of Friday's trading, buyers took the initiative, attempting to regain previous levels, aiming to move back above the 1.0900 target. However, they were unsuccessful—more precisely, they ran out of time.

Thus, the main intrigue for the upcoming week revolves around a simple question: Will sellers be able to solidify their position within the 1.08 range, or will buyers manage to build on their momentum? It should be noted that this is not about a trend reversal—rather, it's about the scale of the correction. The overall fundamental background supports a further decline in price in the medium-term outlook.

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events for EUR/USD. However, each trading day of the five days holds some interest.

Monday
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting will begin from October 21 to 26. Typically, this event indirectly impacts the dynamics of major currency pairs. However, with a nearly empty economic calendar on Monday, the IMF meeting might draw the market's attention. Participants will be particularly interested in the Fund's forecasts regarding the largest global economies (especially China and the U.S.) and the global economy as a whole. It's worth noting that in September, China announced a package of stimulus measures to revive its economy (the People's Bank of China cut interest rates, eased the burden of mortgage loans, and promised to inject additional funds into the financial system). Meanwhile, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% in the third quarter. The IMF's "verdict" could strengthen or weaken interest in risk assets, with the EUR/USD pair responding accordingly.

Additionally, Monday will feature speeches from representatives of the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will share their perspectives. Although they do not have voting rights this year, they will gain them through the rotation system next year. Logan's rhetoric could support the greenback. In a speech two weeks ago, she noted that inflation remains subject to "real upward risks," and the economic outlook carries "significant uncertainty." Logan also mentioned that she supports a more moderate pace of rate cuts (in 25-basis-point increments). Kashkari, in turn, recently remarked that the labor market remains strong and that "some progress" has been made in the fight against inflation.

Tuesday
Tuesday will feature speeches from several Fed representatives. We will hear from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (non-voting member this year), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (voting member), and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voting member in 2024). They may comment on the recent inflation reports released in the U.S. two weeks ago (CPI, PPI), which showed a slowdown in overall inflation but an acceleration in core inflation.

Additionally, several European Central Bank (ECB) representatives will speak on this day. Most notably, Francine Lacqua will interview ECB President Christine Lagarde on Bloomberg Television. During this interview, Lagarde may comment on the outcomes of the ECB's October meeting in the context of the central bank's future actions. Lagarde will also speak at the IMF, though this address will not focus on the ECB's monetary policy ("The Future of Cross-Border Payments").

Furthermore, ECB Board Member Joachim Nagel and the ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, will make remarks on Tuesday.

Wednesday
On Wednesday, Fed Board member Michelle Bowman will speak. It's worth noting that she was the only member of the Committee who, in September, voted against a 50-basis-point rate cut. Since that meeting, she has repeatedly expressed concerns about high inflation. On October 23, she will comment for the first time on the September CPI and PPI reports, which, as a reminder, reflected an acceleration in core inflation. If she even hypothetically suggests the possibility of maintaining a wait-and-see stance in November, the dollar could receive strong support. Currently, the likelihood of such a scenario is only 10%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Also, the Consumer Confidence Indicator for the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. This indicator has been in negative territory for over a year, but it showed positive momentum in September, rising from -13.5 to -12.9. The positive trend is expected to continue in October (forecast at -12.7).

During the U.S. session on Wednesday, we will learn about the September figures for existing home sales in the United States. In August, sales volume decreased by 2.4%, and another decline of 1.2% is expected for September.

Additionally, the Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. This report, compiled by the 12 Fed Banks, provides an overview of economic conditions across various regions of the United States. While the report is informative, it typically has a limited impact on the market.

Thursday
Thursday is PMI day, a key report, especially for the euro. The results of the ECB's October meeting were mixed. Lagarde neither confirmed nor denied discussions among ECB members about a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, she indicated that the pace and timing of further monetary policy easing would depend on incoming data, with PMI indices playing a crucial role. The September figures were in the "red," significantly influencing the outcome of the last ECB meeting. If October shows a continued downward trend in key indicators, the likelihood of a rate cut in December will increase significantly. Preliminary forecasts suggest minimal growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors. For instance, Germany's manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly from 40.6 to 40.7. The euro could come under pressure if the release disappoints amid such weak forecasts.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released during the U.S. session on Thursday. Forecasts suggest the indicator will remain in contraction territory but show an upward trend, moving from 47.3 to 47.5. The dollar would receive substantial support only if the index, contrary to expectations, crosses the 50-point threshold.

Additionally, several Fed representatives will speak on Thursday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who holds voting rights this year, will share her views. She was appointed in September of this year, replacing Loretta Mester. It will be interesting to assess her dovish or hawkish stance.

Also, on Thursday, attention should be paid to the trend in initial jobless claims. Over the past two weeks, this indicator has been relatively high (260,000, 241,000), raising legitimate concerns among dollar bulls. Another result above 230,000 could put pressure on the greenback.

Friday
On the last trading day of the week, the main focus for EUR/USD traders will be on the IFO indices. Last month, these indicators disappointed, adding to the pessimism reflected in the PMI figures. A minimal but positive growth is expected in October. For instance, the business climate index in Germany is forecasted to rise from 85.4 to 85.6. This release should be viewed in the context of the October PMIs, which will be published on Thursday. The IFO indices could amplify the impact if they come in weaker or stronger than expected, confirming the PMI trend (which is the critical factor).

The durable goods orders report will be released during the U.S. session. In August, this indicator was flat (excluding transportation; it showed a 0.5% increase). For September, a decline of 1.1% is expected (excluding transportation, a decrease of 0.1%).

Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published on Friday, with a slight increase anticipated—from 68.9 to 69.6.

Conclusions
As we can see, the economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events, but the scheduled releases could still trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair. The key focus will be on the remarks from Fed representatives, who will likely comment on the September inflation reports in the U.S. Lagarde's interview with the chief editor of Bloomberg Television will also be of particular interest. Plus, the PMI indices are noteworthy. All other releases will play a secondary or, rather, a supporting role.

Technically, on the D1 timeframe, the pair is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all Ichimoku indicator lines, which suggests a preference for short positions. The first target of the downward movement is 1.0810 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on H4). The main target is 1.0780 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart).
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Talks and earnings: 114 companies set to surprise, but Nasdaq already up

Market pauses: Stocks fall after record highs
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended lower on Monday, ending an impressive six-week rally. Investors were wary of rising Treasury yields and were waiting for more earnings reports from major companies.

Resting after a winning streak
"After six weeks of consecutive records, it's logical that the market needs a breather," said Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. With bond yields rising, market participants are taking a break, reassessing their outlook amid concerns about lofty market valuations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 344.31 points, or 0.80%, to 42,931.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to end the day at 5,853.98. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to 18,540.01, helped by a rally in Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares. The chipmaker's shares jumped 4.14%, closing at a record high of $143.71.

Bond Questions and Investor Concerns
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.17%, the highest in 12 weeks. This raised questions about the economic outlook.

"An increase in bond yields could indicate that the economy is growing too quickly, as well as persistently high employment levels," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. According to him, such a situation could slow the process of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

Last week - a series of records
Recall that on Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 indices updated their records, ending the sixth week in positive territory in a row - the longest rally this year.

Tech under pressure: Giants fall ahead of earnings
Rate-sensitive tech stocks were under pressure, with Tesla (TSLA.O) falling 0.84%, one of the victims of rising bond yields that has added to investor anxiety.

Findings in focus: Tesla and Coca-Cola in the crosshairs
After a strong start to earnings season, investors were eagerly awaiting the results of 114 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week, including giants Tesla, Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O).

Analysts believe that market participants are taking some profits ahead of a busy earnings week. "Many are now assessing how overblown current market expectations are," said David Laut, chief investment officer at Abound Financial.

As of Friday, 83.1% of companies that had reported earnings in the past period had beaten earnings estimates, according to LSEG, highlighting the relative strength of the corporate sector.

Broad declines: from real estate to small caps
The decline on Monday affected almost all the key sectors of the S&P 500, with 11 of them ending the day in the red. The traditionally rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) lost 2.08% as bond yields rose, while the tech sector managed to show positive momentum, led by a rise in Nvidia shares.

The Russell 2000 (.RUT), which includes economically sensitive small-cap companies, fell 1.61%, reflecting the jitters in the market.

Elections and volatility: Political factors in play
Investors are also keeping a close eye on the upcoming US presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is showing positive momentum in the latest polls.

Danske Bank analysts warn: "As the election date approaches, even small changes in the polls could be a catalyst for significant swings in market sentiment."

Boeing in positive territory, Spirit Airlines soars on news
Boeing (BA.N) shares rose 3.1% on news that a five-week strike could end. Workers could vote on a new deal that would allow the company to avoid further losses related to the production shutdown.

Spirit Airlines on High: Shares Surge
Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) shares soared 53.06%, which was a reaction to successful negotiations to extend the refinancing of its debt by two months. This allowed the company to buy time and stabilize its financial obligations, which attracted the attention of investors.

Healthcare Sector Decline: Humana and Cigna Lose
On the opposite side of the market, Humana (HUM.N) shares fell 2.46%. This is due to Cigna (CI.N) resuming merger talks with Humana, which caused some concerns in the market. The decline did not pass by Cigna shares, which lost 4.69%.

Economic Week: Key Reports on the Horizon
Investors are expecting the publication of a number of key economic data this week, including home sales reports, preliminary PMI indices, as well as durable goods data. In addition, the market will be focused on the release of the so-called Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, a document assessing the state of the economy.

Bearish sentiment prevails
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the vast majority of stocks ended the day in the red: for every one advancing stock, there were 3.51 declining ones. However, there were still some positive moments in the market: 262 new highs and 47 new lows were recorded.

The S&P 500 posted 42 new yearly highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite Index posted 89 new highs and 51 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.35 billion shares, slightly below the average volume of 11.59 billion over the past 20 trading days.

Markets under pressure: Geopolitics and elections keep investors on edge
Global stock markets started the week lower as rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election kept traders cautious. This market sentiment played into gold's hands, as futures for the precious metal soared again, reaching new records.

Gold in Focus: The Precious Metal at its Peak
Gold prices hit new all-time highs on Monday, remaining at $2,719.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to close the day at $2,738.9. Gold's rise reflects investor sentiment, which is seeking safe havens amid uncertainty and turbulence in global markets.

Nvidia Continues to Win
Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares are back on a high, finishing at a record high. The gains come ahead of a big earnings week, raising investor expectations for strong financial results.

European and Asian indices under pressure
European stock markets also fell in the general negative trend, with the STOXX index losing 0.66%. MSCI's Global Equities Index, which covers stock markets around the world, fell 0.37%. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5%.

Earnings Season and Elections: Risk Factors for the Market
As James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, noted, there is a certain nervousness in the market right now due to the start of the busy earnings season. However, investors' attention is still focused on the US elections, which will take place in two weeks. Despite this, the usual pre-election volatility of September and October is felt less this year.

Oil recoups losses: growth against the background of the previous drawdown
Oil prices demonstrate confident growth, adding almost 2% after a significant drop last week. Brent crude futures increased by 1.68%, reaching $ 74.29 per barrel, and American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose by 1.94%, stopping at $ 70.56 per barrel. This growth signals the return of confidence among market participants after the past fluctuations.

Fed in the crosshairs: probability of a rate cut
Markets are actively monitoring the probability of a Fed rate cut at the November meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 89.3%. Meanwhile, the chances of maintaining the current rate level remain minimal - only 10.7%.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also extended its climb, rising 11.9 basis points to 4.194%. The data underscores the tension in the market as players try to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Dollar Strengthens as Bond Yields Rise
The US dollar continued to strengthen, supported by rising bond yields. The euro, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.46% to $1.0815. Sterling also lost ground, falling 0.51% to $1.2982.

The Japanese yen came under pressure, with the dollar up 0.86% against the yen to $150.79. The gains in the US currency reflected global market sentiment driven by expectations of a tighter US monetary policy.

ECB Cuts Rates Again, German Producer Prices Continue to Fall
The European Central Bank took another step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting interest rates for the third time this year. The measures are aimed at supporting the eurozone economy amid slowing growth and inflation pressures.

German Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected
New data on Monday showed that German producer prices fell more than expected in September, adding to concerns about the outlook for Europe's largest economy, where manufacturing sectors continue to struggle amid global economic uncertainty.

Dollar Continues to Rise: Amid Global Tensions
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.49% to 103.97. The dollar's gains come as geopolitical tensions continue to mount, with the US presidential election looming, leading to increased market jitters.

Markets Brace for Election: Caution Among Investors

"With the Middle East escalating and the US election just days away, it is likely that markets are starting to get jittery and participants are trying to rebalance their positions," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners.
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Verizon and GE Aerospace Fall, GM Gains: Three Key Stocks of the Day on Wall Street

U.S. stocks ended the day with little change
Tuesday's trading session on U.S. stock markets closed without significant movements, although Nasdaq showed a slight rise. Investors continue to closely monitor the dynamics of Treasury bond yields while awaiting corporate earnings reports to better assess the state of the U.S. economy.

Market digesting bond yields
"In recent days, the market has been trying to digest changes in Treasury bond yields. We're seeing quite significant fluctuations in this segment," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

Key index results
During volatile trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 6.71 points, or 0.02%, to 42,924.89. The S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped by 2.78 points, or 0.05%, closing at 5,851.20. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) saw a gain of 33.12 points, or 0.18%, reaching 18,573.13.

Consumer goods sector leads gains
Nearly half of the S&P sectors closed in positive territory, with the consumer goods sector (.SPLRCS) leading the charge, up by 0.92%, driving market optimism.

Treasury yields hit new highs
Earlier in the day, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds hit 4.222%, its highest level since July 26, as investors reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, yields dipped slightly during the session.

Investors fear Fed's aggressive moves
"The main concern is rising interest rates and fears that the Federal Reserve may have been too aggressive in September. This is fueling a global sell-off in bonds," noted Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management.

GE Aerospace drags industrial sector down
Shares of GE Aerospace (GE.N) tumbled by 9%, despite an optimistic profit forecast for 2024. Persistent supply chain issues negatively impacted the company's revenue, weighing down the broader industrial index (.SPLRCI), which fell by 1.19%.

Tech sector holds steady
At the same time, the technology sector (.SPLRCT) posted a modest gain of 0.15%. Leading the charge was Microsoft (MSFT.O), with its shares rising by 2.08%, maintaining a sense of optimism amid market instability.

Volatility continues during earnings season
"Earnings season is traditionally accompanied by high volatility, especially given the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate changes," explained Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services.

Experts expect the next few weeks to remain turbulent for stock markets, as investors closely watch corporate earnings, economic data, and the outcome of U.S. elections, followed by the Federal Reserve's decision.

Chances of rate cuts remain high
According to CME's FedWatch data, traders are pricing in an 89.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. This indicates strong market confidence in a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

Disappointments and surprises from major players
Verizon (VZ.N) fell by 5.03% after its third-quarter financial results failed to meet market expectations. The telecom giant underperformed revenue forecasts, leading to a negative reaction from investors.

Shares of 3M (MMM.N) declined by 2.31%, despite the company raising its full-year adjusted profit forecast. The market seemed unimpressed, responding with a sell-off.

General Motors surprises, Lockheed Martin disappoints
Amid the broader market tension, General Motors (GM.N) surged by 9.81% after its third-quarter results exceeded Wall Street's expectations. In contrast, Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) dropped by 6.12% following the release of its earnings, which failed to impress analysts.

Housing sector under pressure from rising rates
Stocks of companies sensitive to interest rates, particularly in the housing sector, took a hit during the latest trading session. The PHLX Housing Index (.HGX) dropped by 3.05%, driven largely by a 7.24% decline in PulteGroup (PHM.N) shares, despite the company surpassing earnings and revenue forecasts.

Facing headwinds from interest rates
"While the earnings themselves were quite solid, companies highly exposed to interest rate changes are likely facing some headwinds, as investors grapple with the overall interest rate narrative," said Carlson.

Upcoming reports: Baker Hughes and Texas Instruments
Investor attention is now turning to Baker Hughes (BKR.O) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O), which are set to report earnings after the market closes. Market participants are eagerly awaiting these figures to gauge the broader corporate landscape.

NYSE market breadth favors decliners
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a ratio of 1.37 to 1. Additionally, 186 new highs and 58 new lows were recorded during the trading session.

The S&P 500 saw 15 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite registered 72 new highs and 61 new lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 11.45 billion shares, surpassing the 20-day average of 11.28 billion.

Gold hits record high, dollar strengthens
Gold prices reached a record high of $2,750.9 per ounce on Wednesday, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future moves and the U.S. election. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on both the yen and euro, while Asian stocks saw slight gains as investors remained cautious ahead of the contested U.S. elections.

Asian markets post mixed results
The broad MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 0.3% in recent trading. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1% ahead of the upcoming national elections this weekend.

Chinese stocks rise on stimulus hopes
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks finished higher on Wednesday, buoyed by government promises to support the economy. However, the specifics of the timing and scale of the stimulus measures remain unclear, keeping investor optimism in check.

European markets remain cautious
In Europe, the mood remained subdued: Eurostoxx 50 futures edged up 0.08%, while Germany's DAX futures rose by 0.11%. However, FTSE futures dipped slightly, falling by 0.04%, reflecting continued caution among European traders.

Trump presidency back in focus
Investors are also paying close attention to the prospect of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. His policies, which include tariffs and stricter controls on illegal immigration, are expected to drive inflation higher. This has further strengthened the dollar as markets anticipate U.S. interest rates remaining higher for longer than previously expected.

Tight race for the White House
The odds of Trump defeating Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris have improved on betting platforms. However, polls show that the presidential race remains highly competitive and too close to call.

Market volatility expected ahead of elections
With less than two weeks to go before the November 5 election, investors are bracing for increased market volatility. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit 4.234% during Asian trading hours, the highest level in three months, reflecting expectations of prolonged high rates.

Treasury bond sell-off intensifies
The sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds has accelerated this week as markets recognize the risk that the Federal Reserve could reignite inflation if it eases its stance in an improving economy. Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, highlighted the growing concerns about inflation.

Trump's election prospects shift market expectations
The improved odds of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. election have also dampened market expectations of further Fed easing in 2025. There's a chance that the Federal Reserve may take a back seat for six months next year, which could alter the trajectory of monetary policy.

Dollar strengthens amid Fed rate outlook
Expectations of slower Fed rate cuts have pushed the dollar higher in recent weeks. The dollar index, which measures the currency's value against six major rivals, climbed to 104.17, its highest since August 2.

Yen and euro face pressure
The yen fell to a three-month low of 152.28 against the dollar, while the euro dropped to $1.0792, its lowest since August 2. Both currencies are facing headwinds as the dollar continues to strengthen.

Gold hits new highs amid geopolitical tension
Gold prices soared to a new record high of $2,750.9 per ounce, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future moves and the U.S. election drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices correct after rally
Oil prices saw a slight correction after sharp gains earlier in the week. Brent crude futures fell 0.14% to $75.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.18% to $71.61 per barrel.
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Tesla Benefits as Giants Slip, Shares Rise 12% After Quarterly Results

Wall Street Closes in the Red: Bond Yields Pressure Stocks
On Wednesday, trading on Wall Street ended with a decline in the indices, amid rising Treasury bond yields, which negatively affected large-cap companies. Investors lost confidence in a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while corporate news added tension, hitting McDonald's and Coca-Cola stock prices.

Bond Pressure and Fed Doubts
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest point in three months. Investors are reconsidering their expectations for future Fed decisions, given steady economic indicators and the upcoming presidential elections.

"The market is struggling to digest this latest rise in yields," noted Adam Turnquist, chief technical analyst at LPL Financial, emphasizing that higher rates are putting additional pressure on stocks.

Mega Caps Under Fire
Shares of large-cap companies sensitive to interest rate changes were in decline: Nvidia dropped 2.81%, Apple lost 2.16%, Meta Platforms (an organization banned in Russia) fell by 3.15%, and Amazon saw a decrease of 2.63%. These tech giants dragged down the tech-heavy Nasdaq index.

Market Leaders and Laggards
Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index, only utilities and real estate showed positive momentum. All other sectors finished the day in negative territory.

Market Results
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 409.94 points, or 0.96%, to 42,514.95. The S&P 500 lost 53.78 points, or 0.92%, to 5,797.42, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 296.47 points, or 1.60%, closing at 18,276.65.

McDonald's and Coca-Cola Under Pressure from the News
McDonald's stock dropped by 5.12% amid alarming news of an E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder burgers. The incident resulted in one death and numerous illnesses, dealing a significant blow to the company. Coca-Cola also came under pressure, with its shares falling by 2.07%, despite confirming its annual profit forecast. Investors were disappointed as the expected revenue didn't meet higher expectations.

Consumer Goods Sector Declines
The broader consumer goods sector saw a 1.82% decline. The information technology sector followed suit, with a drop of 1.68%, adding to the overall negative market trend.

Investors Lock in Profits
"The market recently reached new all-time highs, and many portfolio managers have decided to lock in profits," noted Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. He added that the current market sentiment is contributing to mass selling as investors seek to secure gains amid growing uncertainty.

Boeing Hit by Strike-Related Losses
Boeing shares fell by 1.76% following the announcement of $6 billion in quarterly losses due to a prolonged production halt caused by a strike. Later that day, Boeing workers were set to vote on a new contract proposal that could end the five-week-long standoff.

Texas Instruments and AT&T Shine
Despite the overall negative market trend, Texas Instruments posted positive results, with its shares rising by 4% after third-quarter earnings exceeded analyst expectations. AT&T also pleased investors, with its stock climbing 4.60% as the company's wireless subscriber growth in the third quarter outpaced forecasts.

S&P 500 Sees Third Consecutive Drop
The S&P 500 index recorded its third consecutive daily decline, highlighting the market's growing tension and investor concerns.

U.S. Markets Near Record Highs, But Volatility Looms
U.S. stock markets are hovering near record levels, but analysts warn that a combination of earnings reports, shifts in monetary policy expectations, and the upcoming presidential election could test the rally and spark volatility.

Fed's Struggle with Inflation
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin noted that the Fed's battle to bring inflation back to its 2% target may take longer than expected, which could limit the potential for rate cuts in the near future.

Beige Book: Economy on Pause, Hiring Increases
The latest report from the Federal Reserve, known as the Beige Book, showed that U.S. economic activity has remained largely unchanged from September to early October. However, companies continue to increase hiring, offering some optimism for the labor market.

NYSE Pressure: Declining Stocks Dominate
On the New York Stock Exchange, declining stocks significantly outnumbered gainers, with a ratio of 3.27 to 1. The exchange recorded 102 new highs and 59 new lows, illustrating mixed market performance.

New Highs and Lows: Divergence Continues
The S&P 500 index registered 28 new 52-week highs and 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 60 new highs but also recorded 90 new lows, indicating ongoing risks in the market.

Trading Volume on the Rise
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges for the day totaled 11.83 billion shares, surpassing the 20-day average of 11.29 billion shares. This increased investor activity could signal that the market is preparing for significant changes in the near future.

Rivian and Lucid See Gains Amid Tesla's Success
Shares of Tesla's smaller electric vehicle competitors, Rivian and Lucid, both rose by 2% after trading hours, reflecting growing confidence in the electric vehicle market. This growth underscores the attention to the sector, where Tesla remains the dominant player.

Self-Driving Cars: Ready by Next Year?
Elon Musk confirmed Tesla's plans to launch self-driving cars with paid rides as early as next year. The company is awaiting approval from regulatory authorities in California and Texas, which could pave the way for the commercialization of this technology.

Tesla's Autopilot Gains Momentum
Following the robotaxi presentation, demand for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software surged. In response to the growing interest, the company offered existing users free access to FSD for one month, marking the second time this year that such an offer was made. This reflects increasing adoption of Tesla's technologies and supports confidence in its long-term strategy.

Tesla Invests in the Future Despite Market Uncertainty
Despite uncertain demand for electric vehicles and the withdrawal of some competitors from the market, Tesla continues to expand its product line and reduce production costs. The company is also investing heavily in artificial intelligence projects and manufacturing capacity. Tesla plans to release new, more affordable models within the next two years, with the first sales expected in the first half of 2025.

Tesla's Profit Margins Exceed Expectations
Tesla's third-quarter results impressed analysts: the company's automotive profit margin, excluding regulatory credits, reached 17.05%, up from 14.6% in the previous quarter. This figure exceeded Wall Street's forecast of 14.9%. These results highlight the company's financial resilience, even amid market challenges and competition in the industry.

Tesla Lowers Production Costs, Beats Earnings Forecasts
Tesla announced that the cost of producing a single electric vehicle reached a historic low, at about $35,100. This was achieved through reduced labor and material costs. Moreover, the company reported an adjusted profit of 72 cents per share for the third quarter, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations of 58 cents.
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