Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The British Finance Minister has been dismissed, and the Defense Minister is next in line.

Exchange Rates analysis
The political crisis in the UK is gaining momentum, which cannot but put pressure on the British pound. After the instrument has moved away from its low by more than 1000 basis points, the British pound is in danger again. But this time, political problems have also been added to the economic problems. On Friday, it became known that British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng was dismissed. He spent only 38 days in his position. The reason for the resignation was the shock in the UK's financial markets caused by tax amendments to the legislation. These amendments have not even been adopted yet, and it is unknown whether they will be adopted. They concerned several tax rates, which, according to the British government, should be lowered to reduce the pressure from rising energy prices on households and businesses. However, the tax reduction plan was criticized by economists, and it immediately became known that its implementation would lead to a huge budget deficit.

Even the conservatives themselves spoke out against this plan, so the Liz Truss government had to urgently make a statement that the plan was still "raw" and needed improvements. It has already become known that the maximum tax rate of 45% will not be canceled, and the proposed changes may also be canceled for other taxes. Since someone had to "take over" responsibility for the shock in the financial and currency markets, most likely, this role was performed by Kwasi Kwarteng, who personally developed this plan. The media noted the importance of this event because Kwarteng was not just the Minister of Finance but also a close friend and colleague of Truss. Former Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt may become the new finance minister.

However, this is not all the upheaval in Parliament. Yesterday, it became known that Defense Secretary Ben Wallace may resign if Liz Truss reneges on her promise to increase defense spending. Earlier, during the election campaign, Truss promised to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2026 and 3% of GDP by 2030. It is reported that this promise prompted Wallace to support the candidacy of Truss and not Rishi Sunak, who refrained from such statements. Jeremy Hunt, who may now take up his new position, has already stated that spending on many items will have to be cut amid the developing recession and the energy crisis in Europe. At this time, there was talk about the possible departure of Wallace, who believed that the defense budget needed to be increased.

It is also reported that NATO recommended that all member countries of the union increase their defense budgets to 2.5% of GDP, and the UK was supposed to be one of the first to do so. The Bank of England somehow restored stability in the financial markets through an emergency program of buying bonds for 65 billion pounds. Still, political problems remain very serious, and the recession and the energy crisis may continue to pressure the pound and the UK economy.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument implies the construction of a new upward trend segment. Thus, now I advise buying a tool for MACD reversals "up" with targets located above the peak of wave 1. Buy and sell should be careful since it is unclear which wave markings (euro or pound) will require adjustments, and the news background may negatively affect both the euro and the pound. Corrective wave 2 may already be completed.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 18, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of October 17
Monday was usually accompanied by an empty macroeconomic calendar. Important statistics in Europe, the United Kindom, and the United States were not published.

In this regard, investors and traders monitored the incoming information and news flow.

The main financial topics discussed in the media:

The new British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said that Liz Truss's previously announced plans to cut taxes and increase subsidies will not be implemented. It is expected that this will allow the authorities to save about £32 billion.

This news flow is pushing the pound up, and due to the positive correlation, the euro is also growing.

Analysis of trading charts from October 17
The EURUSD currency pair has updated the high of the past week during the upward movement. As a result, a technical signal arose about a change in trading interests, which led to an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.

The GBPUSD currency pair resumed its upward cycle, as a result of which the quote once again touched the resistance area of 1.1410/1.1525. The third consecutive convergence of the price with the area of resistance indicates a high desire of traders to keep the upward cycle in the market.

Economic calendar for October 18
Today, data on industrial production in the United States will be published, where the growth rate may slow down from 3.7% to 3.4%. These statistics may put pressure on dollar positions.

Time targeting:

US industrial production –13:15 UTC

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 18
Stable price retention above the value of 0.9850 in the future may open the way towards the parity level. Otherwise, stagnation within the current value may lead to a price rebound in the direction of the variable level of 0.9700.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 18
From a technical point of view, the resistance area is still putting pressure on buyers, but this could change if the price holds above 1.1525 in a four-hour period. In this scenario, the volume of long positions may increase in the market, which will lead to a subsequent increase in the value of the pound sterling.

Until then, the scenario of a price rebound from the resistance area cannot be ruled out.

Gold: When will the downward trend reverse?

Gold has lost almost a fifth of its value from its March highs, and to regain that lost luster it must do the impossible—beat the Forex king. This, of course, is about the American dollar, which sweeps away everything in its path. A host of problems in economies outside the US and an aggressive Fed allowed the USD index to climb to a 20-year high. The ascent continues, which pushes the XAUUSD quotes down.

For the precious metal to bottom, the dollar must peak. In the past, this has happened when the global economy outside the US has outpaced the US or the Fed has injected colossal amounts of cheap liquidity into financial markets.

The Fed is determined. It is willing to sacrifice its own labor market and economy to break the back of high inflation. The futures market and FOMC forecasts suggest that the federal funds rate will rise to 4.6%. However, given the core CPI's stubborn reluctance to slow down, one would expect the ceiling on borrowing costs to be even higher. Barclays predicts growth to 5–5.25%. If this happens, the USD index will continue to rally, and gold will fall into the abyss.

Dynamics of gold and USD index

The armed conflict in Ukraine, snap elections in Italy, the energy crisis in Europe, turmoil in the financial markets of Britain, and currency interventions in Japan. The list of shocks has not been so rich for a long time. But high inflation and geopolitical risks, as a rule, create a tailwind for gold. Indeed, in March, it jumped above $2,000 per ounce amid the war in Eastern Europe, but then, without options, it ceded the status of the main safe haven asset to the US dollar. And is still in its shadow.

What can break the downward trend in XAUUSD? Most likely, a recession in the American economy. In this scenario, the Fed will either slow down the process of tightening monetary policy or reverse it. According to Goldman Sachs, a dovish reversal or transition from raising the rate to lowering it will drive up the price of the precious metal by 18–34%. In my opinion, by the time this happens, there will be many moons in the sky.

Kotak Mahindra Bank believes that one of the factors that could slow the carnage in the gold market is increased demand for the physical asset from the largest buyers in the face of India and China. They account for about 50% of the world's precious metal imports. At the same time, the wedding season and the Lunar New Year will raise interest in gold. In my opinion, hardly. When prices fall, it moves from West to East. This is a common process that convinces the stability of the downward trend in XAUUSD.

Technically, on the daily chart, the inability of the gold bulls to latch onto the $1,670 an ounce fair value is indicative of their weakness. I recommend keeping the focus on selling the precious metal towards the pivot points at $1,620 and $1,580.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 20, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of October 19
UK inflation rose again to a record 10.1% in September. The consumer price index returned to this year's July level when a 40-year record for annual inflation was set.

The British currency reacted quite calmly to these data. The quote was gradually decreasing, which fits into the technical picture of the price rebound from the resistance area.

In the European Union, inflation data slightly differed from the preliminary estimate, which indicated an increase in consumer prices to the level of 10%. As a result, inflation accelerated from 9.1% to 9.9%.

Even though the indicator above is slightly lower, inflation is still very high. Thus, the ECB has all the arguments for a further increase in interest rates.

Analysis of trading charts from October 19
The EURUSD currency pair failed to stay above the benchmark value of 0.9850. Instead, a stagnation was formed, which eventually led to a downward momentum, lowering the quote below the 0.9800 mark.

The GBPUSD currency pair came close to the price gap at the beginning of the trading week during the downward movement from the lower boundary of the resistance area 1.1410/1.1525. In this case, the gap serves as a support, which led to a reduction in the volume of short positions.

Economic calendar for October 20
Today, weekly data on US jobless claims will be published, where figures are expected to rise. This is a negative factor for the US labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may rise from 1.368 million to 1.375 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits may rise from 228,000 to 230,000.

Time targeting:

US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 20
The 0.9750 mark serves as a variable pivot point. To prolong the downward cycle, the quote needs to stay below this value. This move will lead to a depreciation of the euro at least to the level of 0.9700.

An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the price returns above 0.9800. In this case, euro buyers will have a second chance to hold the price above the control value of 0.9850.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 20
For a technical signal about the prolongation of the downward cycle to appear, the quote needs to stay below 1.1150. In this case, the sellers will open the way in the direction of 1.1000.

As for the upward scenario, the current stagnation within the price gap may eventually lead to a price rebound. In this case, a reverse move to the resistance area 1.1410/1.1525 cannot be ruled out.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 21, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of October 20
Weekly data on jobless claims in the United States reflected a slight increase in the overall figure.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits rose from 1.364 million to 1.385 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits fell from 226,000 to 214,000.

What are they talking about in the media?

The main news of the past day is the statement of Liz Truss that she is leaving the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain. An interesting fact is that Truss's premiership was the shortest in British history, with only 45 days.

The reason for her resignation was the discontent and dissension caused by her radical program of tax cuts and increased spending. This plan drew a sea of criticism from all economic and political circles.

How does the market react to her departure?

The pound sterling slightly appreciated in value. There were no cardinal changes in the market due to vague prospects.

Analysis of trading charts from October 20
The EURUSD currency pair once again rebounded from the control value of 0.9850. As a result, the quote returned to where the trading day on Thursday began. The value of 0.9750 serves as a support.

The GBPUSD currency pair, despite the impressive information flow, is moderately active. This suggests a characteristic uncertainty among market participants. As before, the value of 1.1150 serves as a support.

Economic calendar for October 21
At the opening of the European session, data on retail sales in the UK were published, which fell from -5.4% to -6.9%, with a forecast of -4.8%.

The reaction of the pound sterling to the negative statistics was appropriate—it continued to decline.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 21
In this situation, traders are guided by two main values at this stage—holding the price below 0.9750 in a downward scenario and 0.9885 in an upward market development.

It is worth noting that due to the strong information and news flow in the UK, market speculation may arise, where synchronous price jumps will occur through a positive correlation with the pound sterling.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 21
In this situation, keeping the price below 1.1150 will increase the chances of sellers for further decline in the direction of 1.1000. It is worth noting that the market is still in confusion. For this reason, chaotic price jumps are possible.

FX interventions to stop USD rally?

The US dollar and the euro opened the week amid a mixed fundamental background. The euro is still under pressure from geopolitical tensions and the energy crisis, while the greenback risks getting into a so-called intervention loop.

According to analysts at Nordea Bank, currency interventions carried out in the global market "may dampen the strengthening of USD in the short to medium term." For your reference, FX interventions are done by the countries that seek to prop up their currencies against the US dollar. However, this scenario is very unlikely as most countries do not have "an endless amount of USD at disposal to sell."

Nordea Bank is sure that such interventions will fail when the supply of US dollars in these countries runs dry. FX interventions involve selling US Treasuries which adds upward pressure on key rates and leads to a stronger US dollar. Experts warn that this intervention loop may turn out to be negative for the greenback as it could lead to "dollar overshooting." Yet, even this potential failure of USD will not support the euro as it is likely to face a new sell-off wave in the near future. This is quite logical as EUR/USD has been trading within the downtrend since late September 2022. The pair is currently staying in the range of 0.9500 –1.0000. As the geopolitical and economic situation in the EU is getting worse, the euro is set to decline to the lower boundary of this range at 0.9500.

At the moment, the euro/dollar pair looks stable although the euro is still depreciating against the dollar. Early on Monday, October 24, EUR/USD was hovering near 0.9839, trying to maintain the balance. The triangle pattern formed after the breakout of the resistance at 1.0000 may become the main catalyst that will push the pair up to the level of 1.0250.

The greenback opened this week with another advance that has become typical for the currency. At the same time, records showed that the number of long positions opened by large market players decreased by the end of the previous week after a 3-week rally. However, the number of long positions opened by hedgers remained unchanged. This indicates persistent market uncertainty and low risk sentiment among market participants.

Experts stress that financial conditions have been worsening for several weeks now. However, the limit of monetary tightening has not been reached yet. Therefore, the Fed will have to pursue its policy of aggressive rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the stock market tumbled. All measures taken by the Fed are aimed at combating inflation. Most investors expect the US regulator to raise the rate further. It is estimated that the Fed's rate will peak at 5% by May 2023. If so, financial conditions will naturally deteriorate, analysts warn.

According to some forecasts, US inflation may reach 4% to 5% in the next 4-8 months. Then, a slowdown may follow. But even so, the US central bank is unlikely to ease its policy. Instead, it could slow down the pace of rate increase. There is an opinion that inflation in the US is caused by transitory factors in contrast to other countries. The situation is believed to improve soon. If this is true then the Fed may focus on economic growth and lower the rate. So, there is a chance that by 2024, the key rate will decline to 4.5–5%.

GBP/USD. The dollar will soar by the end of the week. It's time for the pound to cool down

The pound has been evaluating political news in a positive light since the morning. How will the mood of traders of the British currency develop in the near future and is it worth counting on the growth of the exchange rate in the future?

Today, investors are assessing the news about the appearance of a new British prime minister. Rishi Sunak was elected head of the ruling Conservative Party of Great Britain, and will also take the post of prime minister of the country.

England has surpassed itself in political twists and turns. Sunak will be Britain's third prime minister this year. In July, Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign. Liz Truss, who was elected in his place, was able to stay in the prime minister's chair for 44 days and also resigned due to an avalanche of criticism against her.

Many see the new prime minister as a source of stability. Perhaps there really is some truth in this, when compared with the chaotic rule of the Truss, during which serious volatility was observed in the markets. Time will tell what kind of ruler Rishi Sunak will be, but for now market players are breathing a sigh of relief and are in a cautiously positive frame of mind.

Today, the GBP/USD pair rose to 1.1293 from the previous closing level of 1.1275.

As expected, the pound may continue to rise in the short term, but it risks failing during the week. Economic data is ahead, and they are likely to show an even greater divergence from the US economy for the worse.

While the market has welcomed the recent developments surrounding the election of a new prime minister, they alone can do little to improve Britain's economic prospects. The GBP/USD pair may continue to rise, but estimates regarding the extent of the rate hike are already declining.

If the 1.1500-1.1700 range becomes a reality in the very near future, this does not mean that the quote will fly further and higher. Such a scenario is more like a decent short entry point. The target range for the end of the year is still 1.0800-1.1200.

Britain released a disappointing PMI on Monday. Indices of activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector collapsed, falling below market expectations.

The composite index in October was 47.2, which is two points lower than in September. Its value has become the lowest in the last two years. In addition, the business activity indicator has been below 50 points for three consecutive months.

The reason for the sharp decline in the index in October is called political instability in the country, which caused turmoil in the financial markets.

Anyway, the current situation points to the recession that has formed in the country. A reduction in economic growth may occur as early as the third quarter, and in the fourth negative trends will only intensify.

The prospects of the pound, among other things, depend on the positioning of the US dollar and its further strength.

Will the decline in the dollar index last until the end of the week? Much will depend on how traders react to the upcoming economic reports in connection with the forecast of the Federal Reserve's policy. The focus is on the GDP report for the third quarter and the employment cost index for the same period. Data on wages and inflation will strengthen the hawkish attitude of the Fed.

One of the most significant risks for the pound this week will be the US GDP report. It can show that America is emerging from a technical recession, while the UK is entering an active phase of recession. Divergence in economic prospects will undermine the pound's recovery.

A serious obstacle is the core PCE price index's release this Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. The inflation rate is expected to increase from 4.9% year-on-year to 5.2%.

If so, it will be more than enough to guarantee the Fed's hawkish attitude, which has helped the dollar reach new heights against many currencies in the weeks since the bank set course to raise the benchmark interest rate to 4.5% by the end of the year and 4.75% at the beginning of the next.

In general, the dollar index is forecast to rise to 114.00 this week.

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 26, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of October 25
The macroeconomic calendar was empty, thus statistical data in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States were not published.

For this reason, investors and traders paid special attention to the information flow, where Rishi Sunak officially took office as Prime Minister of Great Britain.

The main theses of the speech of the new Prime Minister:

- The effects of the pandemic on the economy remain.

- We will put economic stability at the center of the agenda.

- There will be difficult decisions;

- We will build an economy that will take full advantage of Brexit.

- I'm not scared, I understand that I must restore trust.

The British financial sector welcomed the new prime minister; the pound sterling was actively strengthening in value, pulling up the euro.

Analysis of trading charts from October 25
The EURUSD currency pair completed fluctuations within the intermediate level of 0.9850. As a result, an inertial upward move appeared on the market, which brought the euro rate close to the parity level.

During the past day, the euro exchange rate strengthened at the peak by about 1%, which is about 100 points.

The GBPUSD currency pair, during an intensive upward movement, has overcome the lower border of the resistance area of 1.1410/1.1525. This move indicates a high hype for long positions in the pound sterling by market participants.

During the past day, the pound sterling appreciated at the peak by about 2%, which is about 200 points.

Economic calendar for October 26
Today, the macroeconomic calendar is half empty, only the data on new home sales in the US is expected. September sales may fall sharply, which is a negative factor for the country's economy, which may put pressure on dollar positions.

Time targeting:

US new home sales – 14:00 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 26
After an upward rally, the quote temporarily formed a stagnation that lasted throughout the Pacific and Asian sessions. This consolidation led to the accumulation of trading forces, which resulted in a new speculative surge in activity.

As for the direction of movement, everything here will depend on how market participants behave within the parity level. In this situation, it would be reasonable to see a rebound due to the technical signal of the euro being overbought in the short term.

If the parity level is broken, and the quote is firmly held above it in the daily period, then there is a high probability of a subsequent upward move. In this case, we can see a gradual recovery of the euro.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 26
At the opening of the European session, buyers of the pound sterling again broke into the market, which led to a new upward impulse. As a result, the quote rose above the resistance area, which may indicate the possibility of prolongation of the current ascending cycle from the low of the downward trend.

It should be noted that the technical signal of the prolongation will be confirmed only after the stable holding of the price above the level of 1.1525 in the daily period.

USD/JPY: USD to come out on top again

The currency market seems to have turned upside down. The US dollar, which has remained a king on Forex this year, suddenly began to lose ground. The yen, which is considered the main outsider this year, took advantage of the greenback's weakness which. It rose significantly.

Why USD loses ground

On Thursday night, the US dollar saw a large-scale sell-off. The US dollar index dived by 1.1%, reaching the monthly low of 109.56.

The greenback dropped across the board due to increased expectations of less aggressive tightening by the Fed and more hawkish stances of the ECB and the Bank of England.

In light of the recent weak US economic reports, traders have revised their outlooks for the Fed's monetary policy.

Investors expect the regulator to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting. However, they believe that the regulator will hardly undertake the same rate increase in December.

Aggressive tightening launched by the Fed to tame soaring inflation has adversely affected the economy. The world's largest economy is starting to show signs of slowing down.

It may force the Fed to shift to less aggressive rate hikes. If this scenario comes true, it will be rather bearish for the US dollar.

This year, the main driver for a rally was the monetary tightening. As the Fed has hiked rates more aggressively than other central banks, the greenback has skyrocketed to multi-year highs against its rivals.

It has grown the most versus the yen amid the divergence in monetary policies of the Fed and the BoJ. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by more than 20%, logging the worst performance among all the currencies.

The yen has become an outsider due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to a dovish stance. The regulator maintains its ultra-loose stance, while other major central banks are hiking rates.

After expectations of a slowdown in monetary tightening by the Fed have increased, the yen managed to climb.

The yen has been growing for two consecutive sessions. This morning, the Japanese currency extended gains.

At the time of writing the article, the USD/JPY pair fell by 0.5%, trading around 145.6. This is almost 5% below the high of 152 reached last week.

USD likely to rebound

Now, the dollar/yen pair is rapidly recovering after recent sell-offs. It has already approached a 32-year low.

However, many analysts believe that the current rally of the JPY will be short-lived as the US dollar could assert strength amid strong US economic data.

The US GDP report for the third quarter is due today. The indicator is projected to advance by 2.4% following a decrease of 0.6% in the previous quarter.

If this scenario comes true, market participants will have to revise their forecasts for the Fed's further plans for monetary policy, abandoning hopes for a softer stance.

The US dollar is sure to regain ground, while the yen will resume a downward movement.

On top of that, the JPY may decline even more after the results of the BoJ meeting. This event has been the main driver for the yen this week

Given a domestic demand shock in Japan, many analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy to spur economic growth.

"The Bank of Japan will likely keep its main policy levers unchanged, yet again. Core inflation well above the 2% target and set to hit 3% isn't enough to prompt the BOJ to reduce monetary easing. Stronger wage growth is desired first," Bloomberg emphasizes.

The BoJ may keep the interest rate in negative territory, while the ECB may raise the key rate by 75 basis points today. The Fed will do the same next week. This is why the yen may again lose luster with investors.

In the short term, it may resume a sharp decline. If the yen collapses to critical levels again, the Bank of Japan will have to intervene once again.

Over the past month, the Japanese government has intervened in the forex exchange market three times. One intervention was officially announced. Analysts are sure that there have been two more. However, the Ministry of Finance did not announce them.

All interventions had a short-lived effect. The greenback recovered quickly thanks to strong fundamental factors, which boosted bullish bias.

Bulls are confident that the pair will climb again despite any intervention. The main thing is that the Fed adheres to its hawkish stance. If so, the US dollar will definitely resume an upward movement.

Trading plan for EURUSD on October 31, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through the 0.9914 lows intraday on Monday before finding support and reversing sharply to 0.9945. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 0.9935 at this point in writing as the bulls prepare to resume higher towards the 1.0170-1.0200 area. The currency pair is testing the backside of the past resistance trend line around 0.9910-20, which now serves as support.

EURUSD might have one more rally left to terminate its counter-trend rally, which began from 0.9535 earlier. The proposed target prices are towards 1.0200 and 1.0350, which are also lined up with resistance levels as marked on the daily chart. Immediate support is at 0.9700 on the daily chart and we can expect higher prices from here until it remains intact.

EURUSD is currently working on its recent upswing between 0.9700 and 1.0093. Prices are finding support just above the 0.9900 mark and could resume higher from here. Strong intraday support is seen at about 0.9850 as it is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above upswing. We are looking higher from here in the near term.

Trading idea:
Potential rally through 1.0200 and higher against 0.9500

Good luck!