Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing to develop a downtrend, which leads to the renewing of local minimums on the instrument since February 21. Now, the European currency has lost about 0.16%, testing the level of 1.0900 for a breakdown. The instrument remains under pressure amid the ongoing collapse in the stock markets and the growth of panic sentiment that is pushing investors to buy USD. Yesterday, European stock exchanges recorded the strongest decline in the last 7 years. Traders are also shocked by the price of oil, which fell to $20 per barrel (WTI Crude Oil). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the EU met the forecasts but failed to provide significant support to the euro. The consumer price index in March rose by 0.2% MoM after a decline by 1% MoM in January. Annual inflation growth rates remained at the previous level of +1.2% YoY.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continues to renew record lows amid a sharp decline since March 10. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument tries to consolidate below 1.1500, the lowest level since 1985. Investors are actively buying up dollars in the market, fearing a negative scenario for the development of the coronavirus epidemic. Also, the UK, unlike many other countries, delayed the introduction of strict quarantine, and now investors fear that with an outbreak of illness, the health system may not be able to cope with the flow of patients.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively declining, renewing record multi-year lows against the ongoing rally of the US dollar. Panic in the market, as well as the sharp collapse of stock exchanges, are pushing investors to buy US currency, which currently serves as one of the main sources of liquidity in the market. Also to the situation with the coronavirus epidemic, the RBA decision on the interest rate is in the spotlight on Thursday. As many expected, the Australian regulator took additional measures to support the economy and lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. At the same time, the published Australian labor market report for February added some optimism to the markets. So, the level of employment in February rose sharply by 26.7K jobs after rising by 12.9K last month. Analysts had expected an increase of only 10K. The unemployment rate in February unexpectedly dropped from 5.3% to 5.1% with a constant forecast.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, renewing local highs since February 28. Amid a sharply negative picture in the stock markets and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world, investors are inclined to buy the dollar as a source of liquidity. Demand for the yen as a shelter asset remains quite low, although it allows its dynamics to be relatively calm. Additional pressure on the position of the Japanese currency has published poor macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, according to the results of February, CPI slowed down from +0.7% YoY to +0.4% YoY against the forecast of growth to +0.8% YoY. However, the activity index in all sectors of Japan at the beginning of the year steadily increased by 0.8% MoM, which was significantly better than market expectations +0.2% MoM.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show a negative trend, however, they make no attempt to consolidate below local lows since November 2019, renewed at the beginning of the week. Investors prefer the American currency to the precious metal, fearing that measures taken by the world Central Bank will be insufficient to curb negative trends. The US cannot yet calm the markets, which reflected in the sharp collapse of stock exchanges the day before. The Fed has promised to restore its mechanism for issuing loans directly to companies and households, which it has used during the 2008 financial crisis.

EUR/USD

EUR has shown rather active growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from an active rally in the last 3 trading days, which led to the updating of record lows of April 2017. The growth of the pair is observed against the background of profit taking by investors at the end of the week, while the fundamental picture is not changing much. World regulators are taking the most decisive measures to stabilize the situation, but the panic in the market has not yet been stopped. USD, despite the reduction in the rate to almost zero, is still considered a risk aversion and serves as a reliable source of liquidity. Macroeconomic statistics published from the euro area and Germany turned out to be mixed, but, as has already become usual recently, has remained without proper attention. German IFO Business Climate index fell from 96 to 87.7 points in March. German IFO Current Assessment index for the same period decreased from 99 to 93.8 points. German IFO Expectations index fell from 93.2 points to 82 points. At the same time, Construction Output data in the euro area in January reflected an increase from –2.3% YoY to 6% YoY, which was noticeably better than market expectations of 1.3% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading upwards against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows since 1985. The instrument adds more than 1.2% and is testing the level of 1.1650 for a breakout. Investors are focused on yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England, at which it was decided to lower the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.1%, trying to minimize the damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic and slowdown the global economy. In addition, the British regulator increased the volume of the quantitative easing program from 435B to 645B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD strengthens against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows updated the day before. The corrective sentiment on the instrument began to strengthen on Thursday, which allowed AUD to win back most of the losses. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced next stimulus measures following other global regulators. The interest rate was reduced from 0.50% to 0.25%, while traders expressed cautious optimism in connection with the publication of a relatively good Australian labor market report for February. However, the markets agree that the February statistics weakly reflects the real situation in the economy and the March data will be significantly worse.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since February 24. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of correctional sentiments in USD at the end of this week, while the general situation in the market does not change much. Macroeconomic statistics fade into the background, especially when it comes to February or even January data, and the market is firmly focused on the coronavirus pandemic and related measures that world regulators are taking to stabilize the economy.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting against the background of a slight decline in USD. In addition, the low exchange rate of the instrument made the purchase of gold an attractive investment, given that fundamentally the situation in the markets does not change much. Gold is also supported by the rapid decline in interest rates by global regulators and additional quantitative easing measures designed to help a slowing economy.

EUR/USD

EUR shows strong growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a weak correction, which gradually comes to the market after the rally of USD. Last week, due to a sharp collapse in the quotes of risky assets in the market, EUR updated its record lows since April 2017. Despite the fact that coronavirus remains one of the main topics in the current market, investor sentiment is gradually improving. The active measures that global regulators are taking seem to have taken, if not economic, then psychological action. Macroeconomic statistics published on Friday again turned out to be rather depressing, but did not have a noticeable effect on the market. German Producer Price Index in February fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. The euro area's Current Account n.s.a. collapsed from EUR 51.2B to 8.7B in January, while forecasts suggested a decrease of only EUR 20.5B.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session, trying to win back losses at the opening. The recovery of the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market, as investors calmed down after the active support measures undertaken by the leading regulators of the world. Last Thursday, the Bank of England lowered rates to a record level of 0.1% and significantly expanded its quantitative easing program in an effort to minimize the damage from the coronavirus crisis. It is not yet clear how exactly these measures will affect the UK economy, but the markets still got the main signal – politicians and economists are ready to undertake emergency measures to deal with the crisis. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the UK was ambiguous. The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing reflected a sharp increase from GBP –12.433B to –0.394B. However, the figure turned out better than the forecast of +0.85B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD is falling against USD during today's Asian session; however, it shows a tendency to corrective growth against the background of some stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange markets. The active measures that global regulators are taking to curb negative trends in the economy seem to be gradually bearing fruit. A quantitative increase in indicators is out of the question, but moral support is undoubtedly being formed. In addition, investors are very optimistic about the experience of China in the fight against coronavirus. Last Friday, the People’s Bank of China kept its key rate at 4.05%, and economic activity in the country is gradually recovering, which also gives hope for a favorable outcome of the coronavirus crisis outside the PRC. Only a few publications from the USA are in the spotlight today, and interesting statistics from Australia will appear on Tuesday when business activity data from Commonwealth Bank is published.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated last week. The instrument loses about 0.7%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakdown. The growth of correctional dynamics is facilitated by a slight improvement in market sentiment. Active support of the global economy by leading financial regulators had a calming effect on investors, while previous negative assessments of the coronavirus epidemic did not change significantly. In addition, investors still use JPY as a safe haven asset, although USD looks a bit more attractive during a major crisis.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling again during today's Asian session, correcting after moderate growth at the end of last week, caused by further purchase of safe haven assets amid concerns about the economic consequences of coronavirus. Demand for gold remains quite low, as investors seek to seize the source of increased liquidity in the market by actively buying USD. However, against the background of a slight improvement in the situation and measures taken by leading regulators, the demand for liquidity is somewhat reduced and gold in this case looks like a very attractive investment.

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is actively growing, retesting the level of 1.0800 for a breakout. EUR is supported by growing political uncertainty in the USA and new measures to support the European economy. On Sunday, US parliamentarians blocked a bill to stimulate the economy amounting to more than $1 trillion but investors continue to hope that additional support will be provided anyway. Now, the Fed is trying to push the measures for virtually unlimited QE, which should help restore the stalled sectors of the economy. The EU Council on Economics and Finance has made an unprecedented decision and suspended the Stability and Growth Pact, one of the main documents of the EU, which implies that countries must adhere to a certain level of the budget deficit and not exceed a predetermined public debt ceiling. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of a block of statistics on business activity in Europe for March.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in an upward direction, recovering from another decline at the beginning of the week, which violated the plans of investors who hoped to see the corrective growth of the oversold pound. GBP is supported by a slight weakening of USD, as the Senate slowed down the adoption of the bill on new stimulus measures. Traders fear the development of a new American political crisis, which would be completely out of place, given the current realities and the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. On Tuesday, traders expect the publication of March statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector from Markit. Also, today, Meeting Minutes of the Committee on the financial policy will be published.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing significantly, adding more than 1.1% and trying to consolidate above the level of 0.5900. The instrument is actively being strengthened after the US Federal Reserve's statement on the purchase of treasury securities and bonds in virtually unlimited quantities. Also, investors are focused on the fact that the Senate slowed down the adoption of new stimulus measures proposed by the Donald Trump administration, and this could lead to an increase in political uncertainty in the country. Australian macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday was ambiguous. Thus, the Commonwealth Bank PMI in the service sector fell from 49 to 39.8 points for March, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 48.3 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI for the same period from 50.2 points corrected only to 50.1 points, which was better than forecasts and contributed to the growth of optimistic market sentiment.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair significantly reduced, retreating from local highs since February 24, renewed yesterday. Investors dropped some of the long USD positions amid unprecedented economic support measures by the US Federal Reserve. On Monday, the regulator announced unlimited QE, while the Senate suspended the approval of the bill on economic incentives amounting to more than $1 trillion. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday slightly disappointed investors. So, Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for March fell from 47.8 to 44.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 47.6 points.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are actively rising, continuing to develop a confident “bullish” signal formed yesterday. The instrument is supported by the weakening of USD amid the launch of new Fed measures to support the economy. In addition to the virtually unlimited volume of purchases of US Treasury bonds, the regulator will prepare new programs for lending to companies and households.

Meanwhile, the market situation remains difficult due to the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The United States is trying to significantly limit the movement of citizens within the country, while Italy has completely banned all domestic travel to contain the increase in the number of deaths. In China, the number of cases is growing again; however, as noted in official statistics, most of these cases are imported from abroad.

EUR/USD

EUR again shows active growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse that formed at the beginning of this week. USD has come under pressure amid unprecedented economic support measures taken by the Fed over the past few days. On Monday, the regulator announced an unlimited quantitative easing program, as well as new lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses. The EU, in turn, will suspend one of its fundamental documents, which imposes a restriction on the size of the budget deficit and public debt for EU members. The macroeconomic statistics from the euro area published on Tuesday was quite weak. Composite Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in March fell from 51.6 to 31.4 points against the forecast of 38.8 points.

GBP/USD

GBP is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 20. Support for the "bullish" sentiment is still provided by the weakening USD against the backdrop of the announcement of new measures to support the US economy. At the same time, the liquidity crisis in the market continues to provide significant support to USD, and the overall risk demand remains rather weak. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK released on Tuesday turned out to be ambiguous, but did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. Markit Services PMI in March fell from 53.2 to 35.7 points against the forecast of a decrease to 45 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 51.7 to 48 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 45 points.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 18. Active support for the instrument is still provided by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD against the background of the aggressive Fed policy aimed at helping the US economy. However, the general tension in the market associated with the risks of the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic remains, and investors are in no hurry to sell USD. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand slightly supported NZD. In February, export volumes grew by USD 4.92B, accelerating from the previous value of USD 4.689B. Imports for the same period slowed from USD 5.103B to USD 4.33B, which led to a slight increase in the trade surplus in February. In monthly terms, in February, the trade balance entered the green zone at USD 594M after a deficit of USD 414M in January.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous dynamics against JPY, staying close to its monthly highs amid continued market anxiety about the prospects for the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and its negative consequences. USD somewhat staggered after the Fed representatives announced an unlimited program of quantitative easing and also promised to provide favorable lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. However, the corrective sentiment on USD did not lead to a noticeable demand for the yen, which is considered a safe asset. The Bank of Japan is still lingering with new measures to support the economy, but its arsenal is not so large, since the annual asset purchase program for JPY 1T has been operating since 2013, and in 2016 the regulator increased its volume to JPY 6T. Earlier this month, the Bank of Japan announced the possibility of temporarily doubling the quantitative easing program, but there are still doubts in the market regarding the regulator’s readiness to take such a step.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth for two consecutive sessions, which led to the renewal of local highs of March 12. Negative trend emerged due to fixing of long positions in gold, while the fundamental picture on the market is not changing much. The increased interest in the asset is associated with unprecedented measures taken by the Fed in an attempt to support the slowing US economy amid the threats posed by the coronavirus pandemic.

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, renewing local highs since March 19. The euro is recovering amid increasing correctional sentiment in the US currency, which only intensified with the adoption of new unprecedented stimulus measures from the Fed. Yesterday, it became known that the US Senate also managed to negotiate with Donald Trump’s administration and approved a bill on economic support worth $2 trillion. Traders were inspired by Trump’s speech, as he expressed a desire to remove quarantine in the country by Easter (mid-April). Macroeconomic statistics released yesterday were expectedly weak. Thus, the German Ifo Business Climate Index for March fell from 87.7 to 86.1 points with a neutral outlook. German Business Expectations fell from 82.0 to 79.7 points, which was worse than market expectations of 81.9 points. German Current Assessment for the same period decreased from 93.8 to 93.0 points against expectations of 93.6 points.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local maximums, renewed yesterday, currently losing about 0.10% and trying to consolidate below 1.1870. The pound, like many other currencies on the market, is growing amid some improvement in investor sentiment. Investors hope that new unprecedented US economic support measures will help curb the development of negative trends in the global economy. Yesterday, traders focused on a block of UK consumer inflation data. For February, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% MoM, which was slightly better than market expectations +0.3% MoM, and 1.7% YoY, which coincided with investors' expectations. Core CPI without seasonal adjustment for February accelerated from +0.2% YoY to +0.4% YoY. The Retail Price Index, as expected, rose for February by 0.5% MoM after a decline by 0.4% MoM for the previous month. On Thursday, investors are awaiting the Bank of England interest rate decision. It is assumed that the regulator may take additional mitigation measures, although the key rate has already remained at the lows.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed yesterday. The negative dynamics is mainly due to technical factors, while the position of USD is still under pressure amid a slight increase in investor interest in risk. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday was ambiguous. So, the Durable Goods Orders for February grew by 1.2% MoM after a growth of 0.1% MoM for the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.8% MoM. Orders for capital goods excluding the defense and aviation sectors in February fell by 0.8% MoM after growth by 1% MoM for January. Experts predicted a decrease of only 0.4% MoM. On Thursday, investors are focused on the Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of March 20. Due to quarantine, the number of applications is expected to rise sharply to 1 million.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed on Tuesday. However, in the short term, the dynamics of the instrument is still flat, and there is no reason to form a full reversal of the trend. Traders noted the growth of correctional sentiments in the US currency, which felt the strength of stimulating measures by the US Federal Reserve. The optimism to the market was also added by the speech of US President Donald Trump, who expressed the hope that most of the restrictive measures may be removed closer to mid-April.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are correcting, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday when the instrument renewed its local highs since March 12. Nevertheless, the depreciation so far can only be associated with the technical factors of profitable positions closing, while fundamentally the situation in the markets remains very depressing. The new package of measures to support the US economy, which the Senate approved the day before, can provide significant help in containing the negative consequences for the global economy but the source of the problem itself – the spread of the virus – still generates significant risks.

EUR/USD

EUR is trading up against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 17. The instrument is supported by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD, which intensified with the adoption of unprecedented incentives for the US economy. Analysts reckon that approved bills will significantly limit the economic damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Meanwhile, data from the US labor market, released on Thursday, pointed at rapidly growing risks. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K, which significantly exceeded expectations of 1000K.

GBP/USD

GBP is growing against USD at the end of the trading week and can complete it with steady growth at the highs since March 16. This week’s growth is facilitated by a decline in USD, as well as a slight improvement in investor sentiment in response to the approved stimulus package in the US, which is expected to minimize damage from a slowing economy. Yesterday, investors were focused on a meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. As expected, this time the British regulator decided not to rush to introduce new measures to support the economy, especially since the rate is already at record low level of 0.1%. The Bank also maintained a quantitative easing program at GBP 645B. Today, during the day, markets expect publication of data on Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK, as well as the release of the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin for Q1 2020.

NZD/USD

NZD shows an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, trying to consolidate above 0.6000, the highest level since March 17. Correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market contributes to maintaining the "bullish" trend of the instrument, while there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of NZD. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published on Friday was weak. The ANZ Consumer Confidence in March showed a sharp decline from 122.1 to 106.3 points. Total Filled Jobs in February rose slightly from 2.2M to 2.21M, but analysts caution against premature conclusions, since it is obvious that the March figures will be much worse.

USD/JPY

USD is rapidly falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. The instrument loses about 1%, testing the level of 108.20 for a breakdown. Demand for the yen is growing amid large-scale correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market in response to new measures to support the US economy from the administration of Donald Trump and the Fed. Investors also win back macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market published on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K. This is not to say that the growth of the indicator was somewhat unexpected for the market, but the real results were closer to the upper threshold of expected values. In addition, this figure is not finalized, since many Americans simply could not complete the application on time due to long queues and congestion in Internet resources.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show a moderate decline during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.28%, testing the level of 1620.00 for a breakdown. Gold is corrected after explosive growth at the beginning of the week, due to the return of investors after a period of sales. The panic in the market subsided slightly against the backdrop of the US government taking significant measures to support the economy, which pushed the market to diversify. Leading analytical companies noted the possibility of buying a precious metal. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts expect that in the next few months gold can reach 1800.00.

EUR/USD

EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 17, updated last Friday. Investors close part of the existing long positions, which provokes the appearance of corrective dynamics for the instrument, while the fundamental picture changes little. Demand for USD remains high, despite unprecedented measures to support the US economy and injecting huge amounts of liquidity. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US was ambiguous. The February data on Personal Income and Spending in the US provided insignificant support for the market, while the March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflected a decrease from 95.9 to 89.1 points against the forecast of 90 points. Today, investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business sentiment in the euro area in March. In addition, investors are expecting the release of data on consumer inflation for March in Germany.

GBP/USD

GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs of March 13, updated at the end of last trading week. USD weakened significantly amid market reactions to new stimulus measures from the US government, as well as the publication of disappointing data from the US, indicating growing risks for the national economy due to the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. British investors today expect the publication of February data on the dynamics of consumer credit. On Tuesday, the UK will release an updated estimate of GDP dynamics for Q4 2019.

NZD/USD

NZD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near 0.6030, feeling the pressure from the strengthening USD, which is recovering from a weekly fall. Demand for USD is growing again amid the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic, as investors fear that government action may not be enough. However, a certain effect of incentive measures is certainly observed. In particular, amid the approval by the US Senate of an economic support program worth more than USD 2 trillion, a significant reduction in the dollar financing deficit was achieved.

USD/JPY

USD is trading in both directions against JPY during today's Asian session. After a steady decline at the end of last week, which led to the renewal of local lows of March 18, USD is again prone to growth, receiving support from the worsening forecasts of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. However, since the Fed managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to choose a safe haven asset for themselves. Interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected on Monday, but on Tuesday February data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be published.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, continuing the development of flat dynamics for the instrument, which is traced from March 25. Demand for the asset is somewhat reduced amid the recovering USD, but investors are not in a hurry to transfer to USD en masse. Last week, disappointing macroeconomic statistics on jobless claims frightened investors. In addition, the Fed, through the activation of emergency mechanisms, managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, which somewhat reduced the hype around the lack of liquidity in the market.

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is developing a correctional trend, approaching strong support around 1.1000. EUR decline is due to the growing uncertainty in the market, which expects some improvement in the situation. Many governments have taken incentive measures to support their economies and strengthened quarantine against the spread of the epidemic. Now, it remains only to wait until the peak of incidence passes, and the world economy begins to recover from these shocks. Published on Monday, EU macroeconomic statistics were poor, which increased pressure on the euro. Thus, German HICP for March fell from +1.7% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which was worse than market expectations of +1.4% YoY. In monthly terms, the index growth slowed to a minimum of +0.1% MoM.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, continuing the development of a “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. After a rather active “bullish” rally last week, provoked by the emergence of new stimulus measures by the US government and the Fed, GBP again is weakening against USD amid extremely low interest of investors in risky assets. UK macroeconomic statistics released earlier this week only reinforced this trend. So, BoE Consumer Credit for February fell from 1.107 billion to 0.9 billion pounds, which was worse than market expectations of 1.1 billion. On Tuesday, GfK Consumer Confidence data for March appeared. The indicator expectedly fell from –7 to –9 points but analysts' forecasts suggested a much more significant drop to –15 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics on the Current Account and the dynamics of Q4 2019 UK GDP.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near the level of 0.6000. Last week’s active growth of NZD was replaced by multidirectional trading amid yet another strengthening of the American currency, which is in demand amid increasing uncertainty in the market. Now, as most of the measures to support the economy and limit the spread of the epidemic have already been taken, the most unpleasant time is coming for investors – the time for waiting. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday put pressure on the instrument. Thus, the business optimism index from the National Bank of New Zealand in March fell from –19.4 points to a record value of –63.5 points. Analysts had expected a decline only to –24.1 points. The forecast of activity from RBNZ in March fell from 12% to –26.7%, which also was worse than market expectations of 7.3%.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, retreating from local lows since March 18, renewed yesterday. Demand for the dollar and the yen is again growing amid increased uncertainty but interest in the dollar, as expected, is slightly stronger. Recently, investors are increasingly reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics for March, which reflects a sharp deterioration due to the coronavirus crisis. So, the data released yesterday, business activity in the industrial sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (USA) fell sharply to the level of –70 points in spite of the expected growth from 1.2 to 6.2 points. On Tuesday, Japan released a block of retail and industrial data for February. Given the obvious difference between the February and March data, the market ignored most of the information.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term. The gradual strengthening of the US currency puts pressure on the instrument but investors are not in a hurry to close their positions amid growing uncertainty in the market. The global economy is in recession, and the recovery process will be very difficult, especially since the peak of the epidemic has not yet been passed.

EUR/USD

EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" impulse that formed at the beginning of the week, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since March 17. EUR loses significantly to USD amid continuing uncertainty due to the raging coronavirus epidemic; however, investors' attention is gradually shifting to macroeconomic indicators from the US, which inhibits the growth of consumer activity. Macroeconomic statistics show negative results not only in the USA. The data indicated a slowdown in consumer inflation in the euro area from 1.2% YoY to 0.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expert estimates. At the same time, investors drew attention to the surprisingly stable results on the labor market from Germany. The number of unemployed grew by only 1K, while analysts expected a growth of 29K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5%. Such strong results are due to the fact that data collection in Germany was completed before the start of national quarantine, and therefore they do not reflect the real situation on the market at the moment.

GBP/USD

GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, but the dynamics of the instrument in the short term remains flat. After a long decline last week, USD is trying to recover, but it has not yet been able to go into corrective growth, as investors are worried about the increasing uncertainty in the market and the disappointing macroeconomic data from the US. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity in the UK and the USA for March. Analysts expect a decline in all key indicators; however, American data can again exert the greatest pressure. In addition, today the release of ADP Employment Change report is expected. Experts expect to see a decrease in employment by 154K, but it is possible that the scale of the crisis in the labor market is underestimated. At the end of the week, the US will publish the final report on the labor market for March, which can deliver several anti-records at once.

AUD/USD

AUD shows multidirectional dynamics paired with USD, trading near 0.6100. USD failed to win back the losses of the past week, and is waiting for new drivers on the market. It is possible that the report on the US labor market, which will be released at the end of this week, will help to restore former activity; however, investors are afraid that this activity will be "bearish". In the meantime, a good macroeconomic statistics from Australia hinders further decline in the instrument. AiG Manufacturing Index went up from 44.3 to 53.7 points in March. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.7 points over the same period, which in the current situation can be considered positive. However, it is likely that the collected statistics are not entirely relevant, since it only partially captures the period of mass quarantine.

USD/JPY

USD is rising against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from its local lows, updated earlier this week. The instrument adds about 0.17% and is testing the level of 107.70 for a breakout. Investors are noticeably frightened by the development of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, which has already taken first place in the world in the number of confirmed cases. The pressure on USD is also reinforced by macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which gradually exerts more and more influence on the sentiment of traders. Investors are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which will allow drawing preliminary conclusions about how much the world's first economy could suffer from the crisis. Macroeconomic data released in Japan on Wednesday turned out to be controversial. Tankan Large All Industry Capex in Q1 2020 slowed down from 6.8% QoQ to 1.8% QoQ, which was significantly better than market expectations of –1.1% QoQ.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline, which was triggered by another attempt of strengthening USD and the emergence of strong Chinese statistics. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in March rose sharply from 29.6 to 52.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 37.8 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period jumped from 35.7 to 52 points with a forecast of growth of only 45 points. The data from China were strong today as well; however, gold growth is again noticeable amid the expectations of the publication of the March US labor market report at the end of the week. Anyway, Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March rose from 40.3 to 50.1 points, while investors expected it to rise to only 46 points.