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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

This is a discussion on Forex News Analysis by LiteForex within the Analytics and News forums, part of the Trading Forum category; Morning Market Review 2020-02-05 EUR/USD EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development ...

      
   
  1. #951
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2020-02-05

    EUR/USD

    EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. However, EUR is only approaching the levels of the opening of trading last Friday, which ended with a steady growth of the instrument. EUR is under pressure from the increasing uncertainty in the market due to the spread of coronavirus. In addition, investors react negatively to a possible worsening of trade relations between the EU and the UK, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance and urged to ignore compliance with a number of EU requirements during the transition period (until the end of 2020). During the day, European investors are expecting the publication of statistics Markit Services PMI. A little later, December data on Retail Sales will be released, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde will take place.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. GBP updated its local lows on Tuesday, reaching 1.2940, below which the instrument last traded on December 24, 2019, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. On Tuesday, GBP was slightly supported by the data on the UK Construction PMI. In January, the index rose from 44.4 to 48.4 points with a forecast of growth of only 46.6 points. In turn, a mixed prospect of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU exert pressure on GBP, as Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance regarding compliance with a number of EU requirements in the transition period.

    NZD/USD

    NZD is trading near zero during the Asian session on February 5, sluggishly playing back ambiguous statistics on employment from New Zealand. The day before, the instrument managed to reverse the existing "bearish" trend and recorded growth for the first time in 5 trading sessions, which was mainly due to technical factors. Also, moderate support for the pair was provided by data on Building Permits published in New Zealand. In December, the number of permits increased by 9.9% MoM after a decrease of 8.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. New Zealand employment statistics released during today's Asian session indicated a decline in Unemployment Rate from 4.1% to 4%, while the market expected it to rise to 4.2%. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 showed zero dynamics after an increase of 0.2% QoQ in Q3. Investor forecasts suggested an increase in employment by 0.3% QoQ. Participation Rate over the same period decreased from 70.4% to 70.1%.

    USD/JPY

    USD is again trading lower against JPY during today's Asian session, slightly offsetting the sharp increase of the previous day. JPY collapsed amid growing fears of the spread of coronavirus, as well as due to new measures by China to support the economy, which generally contributed to increasing interest in risk. Additional support to USD on Tuesday was provided by data from the USA on Factory Orders. In December, the volume of orders increased by 1.8% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1.2% MoM. Today, investors are focused on Japanese statistics on Services PMI. Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from 49.4 to 51 points in January, which, however, turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations of 52.1 points.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, retreating from new local lows updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.15% and is about to test the level of 1560.00 for a breakout. The decline in the asset yesterday was due to the strengthening of USD, as well as new measures to support the economy, which China adopted in connection with the further spread of the coronavirus. Positive macroeconomic statistics from the USA on Factory Orders and Economic Optimism index contributed to increased demand for risk, but overall market sentiment remains depressed.

  2. #952
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2020-02-06

    EUR/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, renewing local lows since the end of January. USD is still in strong demand in the market, as investors are seriously concerned about the spread of coronavirus. On Wednesday, EUR was negatively affected by poor statistics on retail sales. So, for December, the indicator decreased by 1.6% MoM after an increase of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts forecasted the appearance of negative dynamics but expected a weakening of only 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, sales growth slowed from +2.3% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which is worse than market forecasts +2.4% YoY. Meanwhile, statistics on business activity, on the contrary, were better than expected. Markit Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 50.9 to 51.3 points, while Service PMI grew from 52.2 to 52.5 points with a zero forecast.

    GBP/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, continuing to develop a poor “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. GBP is negatively affected by a number of technical factors, as the market was alarmed, and by investors' doubts about the ability of the EU and the UK to agree on a trade deal before the end of the current calendar year. However, the parties may also extend the transition period in order to give themselves more time to work out joint decisions. UK macroeconomic statistics released on Wednesday provided moderately supported GBP. Thus, Markit Service PMI for January rose from 52.9 to 53.9 points with a constant forecast.

    AUD/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively growing, again approaching the local highs, renewed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.23%, testing the level of 0.6760 for a breakout. The Australian dollar almost completely ignores poor macroeconomic statistics from Australia. So, Q4 2019 NBA business confidence index decreased by 1 point QoQ, repeating the results of the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 3 points QoQ. Retail sales for December fell by 0.5% MoM after rising 1% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 0.2% MoM. Export growth for December did not exceed 1%, while imports sharply accelerated to +2%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 5518 million to 5223 million Australian dollars.

    USD/JPY

    Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is actively growing, renewing local highs since January 22. The American currency continues to be in high demand amid anxiety in the market due to the spread of coronavirus. At the same time, information on the progress in the development of the vaccine is gradually entering the market, which gives hope for a victory over the epidemic. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States published on Wednesday was ambiguous but contributed to the further strengthening of the instrument. Thus, ISM Service PMI for January rose from 54.9 to 55.5 points against the forecast of growth to 55 points. ADP employment report, which is traditionally published ahead of the release of the official US labor market report, was also positive. It reflected a sharp increase in private sector employment in January by 291K jobs after an increase of 199K last month.

    XAU/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling again, returning to a downward trend after yesterday’s slight increase. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.20%, in preparation for testing the level of 1550.00. The price is under pressure by reports that Chinese scientists managed to get closer to developing a vaccine against coronavirus, which also provoked an increase in stock markets. Positive macroeconomic statistics from the USA also contribute to the development of negative dynamics. In particular, investors were very optimistic about the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report, which gives hope for strong results of the final report on the US labor market on Friday.

  3. #953
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2020-02-07

    EUR/USD

    EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating again after another decline yesterday, which led to the renewal of local lows of October 9, 2019. Investors are disappointed with the publication of Thursday's weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany, and take a lead from the speech of the ECB head Christine Lagarde, from which it became clear that the European regulator is more and more inclined towards new measures to support the euro area's economy. Factory Orders in Germany in December fell by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.6% MoM. In annual terms, the volume of orders fell by 8.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of –6.0% YoY. At the end of the week, traders expect publication of data on industrial production in Germany for December. There is no hope that the statistics will be better than their forecasts, and therefore, most likely, EUR will remain under pressure. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the publication of the January report on the US labor market.

    GBP/USD

    GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a two-day decline, which led to the updating of local lows from the end of December 2019. As before, uncertain prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the UK and the EU during 2020 remain the main negative factor for GBP. The position of Boris Johnson is not shared by everyone, but so far he remains adamant and urges him to put the national interests of Great Britain at the forefront. Meanwhile, British Secretary of State for International Trade Liz Truss said that the UK expects to conclude a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, Britain’s second largest trading partner.

    AUD/USD

    AUD continues to decline against USD during today's Asian session, offsetting the growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week. The pressure on the pair is exerted by not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as by the relatively strong USD. The instrument loses about 0.19%, preparing to test the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown. AiG Services Index in Australia went down from 48.7 to 47.4 points in January. In addition, today Australia released the minutes of the last meeting of the RBA on the interest rate, which managed to provide some support to the instrument. Among other things, investors focused on good prospects regarding the growth of the Australian economy in the near future. In 2020, GDP should exceed +2.75%, and in 2021 it may exceed 3%.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing a slight decline against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth since the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local highs on the instrument of January 22. USD decline is technical in nature, as traders take their long profits before the weekend. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan remain mixed. Overall Household Spending in December 2019 decreased by 4.8% YoY after a decrease of 2% YoY in November. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the dynamics of the indicator and a decrease of only 1.7% YoY. Coincident Index in December remained at the previous level of 94.7 points against the forecast of growth to 95.9 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period increased from 90.8 to 91.6 points, which turned out to be better than neutral market forecasts.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near three-day local highs after active growth the day before. The instrument was supported on Thursday by the market's concern over the further spread of coronavirus and the consequences that the epidemic has for the global economy. News of China’s reduction in import tariffs on a number of US products under the trade agreement signed in January was virtually ignored. On Friday, investors focus on the publication of the January report on the US labor market. Given the strong results shown by the previously published ADP employment report, expectations are likely to be inflated.

  4. #954
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2020-02-10

    EUR/USD

    EUR is trading up against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from updated local lows of October 8, 2019 and recovering from a solid "bearish" rally last week. The development of the downtrend in EUR at the end of last week was facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the US. Investors were disappointed to find data on Industrial Production in Germany. December production volumes decreased by 3.5% MoM after rising by 1.2% MoM in the previous month and with a forecast of a decline of only 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production fell by 6.8% YoY, also significantly exceeding its own forecasts of –4% YoY. At the same time, USD was supported by good results of the January report on the US labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 225K, exceeding the forecasts of 160K. Average Hourly Earnings in January also accelerated from 3% to 3.1% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from the "bearish" end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13% and is trying to consolidate above 1.2900. The pair’s growth is mainly due to technical factors, while GBP remains under pressure from the mixed prospects for EU-UK trade negotiations. In addition, markets are wary of possible interventions by the Bank of England, which is likely to support the national economy during a period of possible weakness. Minor support for GBP today is provided by statistics from China. Chinese Consumer Price Index in January rose by 1.4% MoM after zero dynamics in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the growth of consumer inflation accelerated from 4.5% YoY to 5.4% YoY, significantly exceeding its own forecasts of 4.9% YoY.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from new record lows since 2009, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. In addition to a number of important technical factors, good macroeconomic statistics from China provide strong support for AUD. Last Friday, the Chinese economy showed a sharp increase in exports (9.1% YoY), and today it supports consumer sentiment with consumer inflation statistics. In January, Consumer Price Index rose by 1.4% MoM and by 5.4% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of 0.8% MoM and 4.9% YoY. Today, interesting statistics from Australia are not expected, but on Tuesday there will be data on the dynamics of Australia's Home Loans for December.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing uncertain growth against JPY during today's Asian session, again reversing upwards after a correctional decline at the end of last week. The yen is moderately supported by the Japanese macroeconomic data. Bank Lending in Japan in January showed an increase of 1.9% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY last month. In addition, the downtrend in the instrument is facilitated by corrective sentiment in USD prevailing in the market. USD ended last week with strong growth against a number of its competitors, so investors are interested in fixing long profits.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after updating local highs of February 4. Support for the instrument at the end of last trading week was provided by corrective sentiment on the main stock exchanges, while investors expressed their concerns about the further spread of coronavirus and its negative economic consequences. A more active rise in gold prices was hindered by strong USD, which received support from a strong US labor market report for January.

  5. #955
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2020-02-11

    EUR/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near new local lows since October 2019, renewed yesterday. EUR is still weakening against the growing dollar, which is in demand amid continued market anxiety regarding the spread of coronavirus. Pressure on the euro is also exerted by the ambiguous prospects of EU-UK trade negotiations, during which the parties should work out a mechanism for UK access to European markets after Brexit. Monday's macroeconomic statistics did not add optimism to the markets. Thus, industrial production in Italy in December fell by 2.7% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –0.4% MoM and –0.8% YoY.

    GBP/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Yesterday, the instrument grew moderately but the increase was due only to technical factors. During the day, British investors expect the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, traders will be interested in December data on the dynamics of industrial production, the country's overall trade balance for December, as well as Q4 2019 GDP. Also, later, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will speak in the British Parliament. As for the market forecasts, they do not allow us to expect a significant increase in the pound. Q4 2019 GDP is expected to slow from +0.4% QoQ to +0.0% QoQ.

    AUD/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively growing, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.37%, testing the 0.6700 the level of for a breakout. The Australian dollar is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from China and Australia. So, on Monday, traders positively met consumer price growth in China in January. In annual terms, the inflation index accelerated from +4.5% YoY to 5.4% YoY, exceeding most of its forecasts. Today, the Australian currency is positively affected by the national statistics on Home Loans. The total volume of issued mortgage loans for December grew by 3.5% after a decline of 0.8% last month. Analysts had expected growth of only 0.7%. Investment borrowing for the construction of houses in December accelerated from +2.5% to +2.8%.

    USD/JPY

    Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, recovering to local highs, renewed at the end of the last trading week. Demand for the yen is supported by growing alarming sentiment in the market but investors currently trust the dollar more. In addition, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan are often ambiguous. So, on Monday, February 10, the released Eco Watchers event forecast index in January fell from 45.5 to 41.8 points with a positive forecast for growth to 47.1 points. The current situation index for the same period, on the contrary, grew stronger than forecasts: from 39.7 to 41.9 points (growth was forecast to reach 40.5 points). There will be a lack of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan during the day, so investors will probably concentrate on data from the USA, where, in particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the US Congress.

    XAU/USD

    Since the start of the new Forex week, gold prices have been rising moderately, supported by the continuing threats of the further spread of coronavirus. In turn, the strong position of the US currency prevents a sharp renew of local maximums on the instrument. The dollar index is kept close to four-month highs, and also retains prospects for further strengthening. Investors are focused on a two-day speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in Congress. Powell is expected to shed light on the monetary policy of the regulator in the near future. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, citing moderate US economic growth and strong labor market data.

  6. #956
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    2020-02-12

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, but again tends to decline after an uncertain yesterday's growth. The reason for the appearance of a weak uptrend on Tuesday was in technical factors, while the fundamental picture remains negative. USD currently looks more attractive to buy, as investors are increasingly interested in high-yield assets. The speeches of the heads of the ECB and the Fed were in the spotlight yesterday. Christine Lagarde concentrated on the negative factors, which once again put pressure on EUR. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, was more optimistic, noting, however, that the regulator will continue to purchase treasury bonds in Q2 2020. During the day, the ECB representative Philip Lane is expected to speak, as well as the release of December statistics on industrial production in the euro area is planned.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading against USD with ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trying to develop a weak upward momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument adds about 0.06%, testing the level of 1.2960 for a breakout. GBP was supported yesterday by statistics from the UK on GDP dynamics, while the rest of the data were controversial. UK GDP in December increased by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. The indicator came out slightly better than forecasts of an increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, GDP grew by 1.1% YoY, slowing down from the previous value of 1.2% YoY and significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.8% YoY. The focus of British investors on Wednesday is the annual Autumn Forecast Statement, which will contain updated forecasts and a brief overview of the budget for the next fiscal year.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is again trading with steady growth against USD, updating local highs from February 6. The instrument adds about 0.22%, testing the level of 0.6730 for a breakout. AUD is supported by a slight improvement in market sentiment, contributing to an increase in demand for risky assets. Australian macroeconomic statistics yesterday turned out to be heterogeneous, but on the whole it contributed to the further development of the uptrend in the instrument. Home Loans in Australia rose by 3.5% in December after a decline of 0.8% in the previous month. Investors expected an increase of 0.7%. Investment Lending for Homes for the same period increased by 2.8% after an increase of 2.5% in November. Westpac Consumer Confidence reflected a 2.3% increase in February after a 1.8% decline in January. Experts predicted an increase in the index by 1.4%.

    USD/JPY

    USD has shown uncertain growth against JPY since the beginning of this week; however, at the moment, the instrument is again trading below 109.90. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Tuesday turned out to be mixed, and two-day speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress came to the fore. Powell noted that the regulator does not plan to resort to negative interest rates and will continue to use traditional regulatory tools. In particular, it was decided to continue the purchase of treasury bonds in Q2 2020.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after a correctional decline the day before. The emergence of a "bearish" trend in the instrument was facilitated by the growth of European stock exchanges, as well as a decrease in demand for safe assets amid falling new cases of coronavirus infection. However, the threat of an expanding epidemic remains, which supports gold as a safe haven asset.

  7. #957
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2020-02-13

    EUR/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, trading near record lows since May 2017, renewed yesterday. The euro is under pressure amid rising market concerns about a possible ECB intervention in monetary policy. The regulator is under intense political pressure, which, together with poor macroeconomic statistics and increased trade confrontation with the UK, could lead to lower interest rates in early spring. Macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday reflected a sharp decline in EU industrial production for December by 2.1% MoM and 4.1% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations of –1.6% MoM and –2.3 % YoY On Thursday, investors are focused on the statistics from Germany on consumer inflation. The market expects prices to fall by 0.6% MoM in January and maintain the previous growth rate of +1.7% YoY. The most important statistics for the week will be Friday's publications on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the EU.

    GBP/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading horizontally, consolidating after corrective growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the pound has lost about 0.04% and is testing the level of 1.2950 for a breakdown. The British currency is still moderately supported by optimistic macroeconomic data released on Tuesday. UK GDP data indicated that the British economy managed to avoid a recession, which reduces the risks of new stimulus measures by the Bank of England. At the same time, trade negotiations with the EU remain in the spotlight, which may well come to a standstill and lead to negative consequences for the economies of both parties. Until the end of the week, there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK, so traders are focused on publications from the USA. On Thursday, in particular, the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the United States is expected.

    NZD/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is falling, correcting after yesterday’s sharp increase. Now, the New Zealand dollar has lost about 0.20% and is testing the level of 0.6450 for a breakdown. Yesterday, NZD showed the strongest growth in the last two months, reacting to the RBNZ decision to exclude the possibility of lowering interest rates in the near future. The regulator also informed the market that it expects acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2020 amid improving global trade conditions and measures of budget support for the national economy.

    USD/JPY

    Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, offsetting the moderate growth of the instrument on the eve. USD is under moderate pressure of Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, the monthly budget report indicated a deficit growth from $–13.3 billion to $–33 billion, which was significantly worse than market expectations of $–11.5 billion. In turn, the yen receives little support from Japanese data. The producer price index for goods for January rose by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. The domestic price index for corporate goods in January accelerated from +0.9% YoY to +1.7% YoY, ahead of forecasts of +1.5% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are strengthening, recovering from a moderate decline since the beginning of the week. The instrument is supported by correctional sentiment in the US currency, while gold remains under pressure amid growing demand for risk. Now, the rate has added about 0.37% and is preparing to test the level of 1575.00 for a breakout. Pressure on quotes is also exerted by the weakening of the coronavirus epidemic in the world. The number of new infections is declining markedly, and markets hope that the epidemic will gradually end by March-April this year.

  8. #958
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2020-02-14

    EUR/USD

    EUR continues to trade lower against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of April 2017. Pressure on EUR is exerted by revised data on the dynamics of the distribution of coronavirus, indicating a sharp increase in the number of cases, which, coupled with weak macroeconomic indicators of the euro area, creates dismal prospects for the region's economy. However, statistics released on Thursday on consumer inflation from Germany met the expectations of analysts. Consumer Price Index in January decreased by 0.6% MoM and increased by 1.7% YoY. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the euro area, which will have a significant impact on the instrument.

    GBP/USD

    GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by increased chances of a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England after Boris Johnson appointed Rishi Sunak as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. It is expected that the new minister will adjust the fiscal policy and next month may introduce new measures of tax incentives that will help stabilize the economic situation and attract new investments.

    NZD/USD

    NZD declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, developing the correctional sentiment formed yesterday when the instrument retreated from its local highs of February 5. The pressure on NZD intensified after the publication of new data by the WHO on the number of patients with coronavirus. Due to a change in the calculation methodology, the market saw a sharp surge in the number of infected, which led to an increase in previous fears about the further spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the pair was slightly supported by data published in New Zealand on the Food Price Index. In January, prices increased by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive trend to emerge, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows near-zero dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near 109.80. Demand for USD and JPY again rose significantly after the publication of updated statistics on the number of patients with coronavirus, which frightened investors with a sharp surge in the number of infected. It is curious that macroeconomic statistics from the USA practically did not support USD. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in January accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY, which turned out to be better than market expectations. Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy in January rose by 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly better than forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, correcting after quite active growth the day before, which was triggered by the appearance of updated statistics of the infected and dead of coronavirus in China. The development of positive dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by corrective sentiment in USD, which retreated from its local highs against a basket of currencies. In turn, the pressure on gold is exerted by significantly lower expectations of new stimulation measures from the Fed. On Wednesday, speaking in Congress, Jerome Powell outlined a fairly strong position for the regulator regarding the immediate economic prospects and conveyed part of his confidence in the future to a worried market.

  9. #959
    Senior Member MikhailLF's Avatar
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    Morning Market Review
    2020-02-17

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located close to the record lows of April 2017, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, investors were focused on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the US, which, given the lowered demand for risk, did not play in favor of EUR. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed down from 1.2% YoY to 0.9% YoY, with the forecast of 1.0% YoY. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 accelerated its growth from 0.1% QoQ to 0.3% QoQ, and the trade balance in December increased its surplus to the level of EUR 22.2B. During the day, investors are waiting for the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting, and also expect to receive new comments from the ECB representative Philip Lane.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading slightly up against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.3050. Investors continue to take a lead from the appointment of a new UK finance minister, who is primarily expected to introduce new fiscal stimulus. Changes in tax policy, in turn, reduce the risk that the Bank of England will be forced to intervene in the situation, which makes GBP attractive for purchase. UK macroeconomic statistics released today slightly supports GBP. Rightmove House Price Index rose by 2.9% YoY in February accelerating from 2.7% YoY. Traders will be focused on the labor market statistics from the UK on Tuesday.

    NZD/USD

    NZD is showing a moderate decline during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed last Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6430 for a breakdown. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand was largely ignored by investors. Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in December fell by 0.2% YoY after a decline of 3.5% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 4% YoY. ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge in January reflected a 0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY increase in prices, which turned out to be slightly better than the previous values of 0.4% MoM and 3.2% YoY.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of opening at 109.81. Investors focus on weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which puts significant pressure on JPY. Japan's GDP for Q4 2019 collapsed by 1.6% QoQ after growth of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but only at –0.9% QoQ. Industrial production in December fell by 3.1% YoY after a decrease of 3% YoY in November. Capacity Utilization rate in December fell by 0.4% after a decrease of 0.3% in November. The forecasts suggested an increase by 0.2%.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are consolidating near local highs at 1584.81, updated at the end of last week. Support for the instrument is still provided by the risk of the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which reduces the prospects for global economic growth. Additional support for gold at the end of last week was provided by mixed US macroeconomic statistics. In particular, investors were disappointed with the pace of decline in Industrial Production in January.

  10. #960
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    EUR/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair moves flat but at the opening, the price renewed three-year lows, which indicates that the pressure on the instrument maintains. At the beginning of the week, trading activity was low due to the lack of key macroeconomic publications and closed US markets due to President's Day. On Tuesday, investors expect publication of statistics from ZEW on business sentiment in Germany and the EU. Analysts' forecasts are rather ambiguous, however, given the poor statistics of Germany last week, there is no additional support for the euro expected.

    GBP/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the key support level of 1.3000, which the instrument actively tested at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by expectations of fiscal changes in the UK from the country's new finance minister, Rishi Sunak. The keynote of Sunak’s policy should be an increase in government spending, which will contribute to the growth of the British economy. Today, traders wait for the publication of the UK labor market data for December-January but analysts' forecasts are pessimistic. In particular, a slight slowdown in average wage growth is expected in December. At the same time, the number of Claimant Count Change for January may increase sharply from 14.9K to 22.6K.

    AUD/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively falling, renewing local lows from February 11. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.33%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakdown. Earlier this week, the price was trying to grow after the news that official Beijing promised to introduce new measures to support the economy. In particular, China is expected to cut corporate taxes, as well as increase government spending. Key macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States are not expected on Tuesday, so the focus will probably remain on the old drivers. The Australian Q4 2019 wage index, as well as Westpac leading economic indicators index for January will be released tomorrow. Traders are focused on Thursday, when the January labor market report will be published.

    USD/JPY

    Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, returning to the “bearish” dynamics after an uncertain growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the dollar has lost about 0.15%, testing the level of 109.70 for a breakdown. Yesterday's growth of the instrument was facilitated by poor statistics from Japan. Thus, the country's Q4 2019 GDP fell by 1.6% QoQ after an increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% QoQ. The volume of industrial production in Japan in December fell by 3.1% YoY, accelerating the fall from the previous value of –3% YoY. In monthly terms, the pace of production slowed down from +1.3% MoM to +1.2% MoM.

    XAU/USD

    Today, during the Asian session, the price for gold is growing moderately, recovering from yesterday's decline in the instrument, which was due to the announcement of new measures to support the Chinese economy. However, investors are still cautious, and the demand for shelter assets remains relatively high. From official Beijing, markets expect another reduction in corporate taxes and increased government spending, which should spur the growth of a slowing economy. In addition, China is taking new measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. In particular, last weekend, the Chinese government said that banks will be allowed to issue only banknotes that have been disinfected.

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