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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 22, 2025

On Wednesday, the euro successfully consolidated above the 1.1266 level and the balance indicator line. The next target levels are 1.1420 and 1.1535. The Marlin oscillator is about to enter the area of upward trend momentum.

Today, strong economic reports are expected from the Eurozone. Germany's IFO Business Expectations Index for May is forecast to rise from 87.4 to 88.0, while the Eurozone Composite PMI may increase from 50.4 to 50.7. In the U.S., the Services PMI for May is expected to rise from 50.8 to 51.0 points. These figures could help maintain market risk appetite.

The price continues its planned upward movement above the indicator lines and support levels on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator has slightly pulled back to ease tension and prepare for further growth.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025

The Eurozone PMI data for May, published yesterday, was disappointing. The Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 48.4 (vs. expectations of 49.2), and the Services PMI declined from 50.1 to 48.9 (vs. forecast of 50.4). In addition, several European Central Bank members (Knot, Wunsch, Centeno) spoke in favor of a "timely" rate cut at the next meeting. These developments pushed the euro down by 47 pips. On the other hand, the U.S. PMI data was strong: Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 (vs. 49.2 forecast and 50.2 in April) Services PMI rose from 50.8 to 52.3 (vs. forecast of 51.0) Initial jobless claims fell from 229K to 227K Despite this, stock indices closed mixed (S&P 500 -0.04%), which forced the markets to pause and reassess. Thus, European developments alone are unlikely to change the current upward trend in the euro. Instead, this signals the need to watch equity markets more closely.

The euro only slightly pierced through the 1.1256 support level on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator bounced off the boundary of the bullish territory, suggesting a technical correction for the euro. Today began with upward momentum, and Marlin is again attempting to break through the zero line from below. A white daily candle today could lay the groundwork for stronger bullish momentum next week. At this point, the market seems to have already factored in the rate cut expected in June. Today, Germany's Q1 GDP will be released (forecast: +0.2% after a -0.2% drop in Q4). The U.S. will publish new home sales data for April, expected at 694K versus 724K in March. These figures could further support the euro's growth if they meet expectations.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 26, 2025

On Friday, the euro successfully broke above both the balance indicator line and the recent high from May 21. The price is now approaching the next target level at 1.1420, and a breakout above this level would open the path to the next target at 1.1535. If the price consolidates above that, the third target at 1.1692 will come into play.

The Marlin oscillator has established itself in bullish territory and will now continue to support the price movement as long as it does not enter the overbought zone under the main scenario. The price is climbing above the upward-sloping balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. A consolidation above the nearest resistance at 1.1420 will allow the price to continue this upward path.

There is a suggestion that the price and the Marlin oscillator may be setting up conditions for a bearish divergence, but this impression emerged after a brief dip below the zero line (gray rectangle), which is now interpreted as a false signal. Therefore, the signal line may continue rising into the overbought zone, and no divergence may form.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 28, 2025

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair posted solid growth—0.90% or 149 pips—on the back of a 0.42% strengthening of the U.S. dollar index. As a result, the price is now trading above the daily balance, and MACD indicator lines, and even the Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory.

The price may enter the 145.08–145.91 range, but there is a risk that the breakout above the indicator lines is a false move. If the price drops below 143.45 (reinforced by the MACD line), this would confirm the false breakout and support a decline toward the target support at 141.70, potentially continuing to 139.59. If the price does enter the 145.08–145.91 range but fails to hold within it, a reversal back to 143.45 is also expected soon after. Only a confirmed breakout above the 145.91 level would open the door to an alternative scenario, implying further growth toward 148.66.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has slowed down its advance after interacting with the MACD line. The correction reached 38.2% of the latest downward leg, sufficient to complete a corrective phase. Overall, the pair is in a neutral state, and price action over the next one to two days may consist of sideways or erratic movement without clear directional bias.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority. As an initial reaction to this news, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.53%, S&P 500 futures added 1.50%, and the euro is moving toward testing the target support level at 1.1066. A breakdown below this level would open the path toward 1.0955.

We do not oppose such an unexpected turn of events, at least not in terms of a broad and long-term dollar strengthening, since we have viewed the rise of anti-dollar currencies as a temporary phenomenon from the beginning of the sanctions war. But will today become a pivotal moment? It's quite possible—if, on the weekly chart, the price consolidates below the MACD line, which coincides with May's low at 1.1066. Should this happen, the first downside target would be the March 26 low at 1.0733.

The daily chart shows that the price has broken below the MACD line and the support level at 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has plunged deeper into negative territory. However, if today's candlestick closes at least at the opening level, this downward move may prove to be false, and the dollar's global advance would be postponed. In that case, the euro might attempt to overcome the 1.1535 level, with a target of 1.1692. Considering market momentum, the absence of clear reversal patterns, stock market optimism, rising yields on U.S. government bonds, and the lack of a yield curve inversion, we maintain the euro's growth as the main scenario.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line and the 1.1266 level. However, this move may turn out to be false. A rise above the MACD line—specifically above the 1.1290 mark, which also coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart—would be a strong signal for growth toward the target level of 1.1420.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 2, 2025

The euro closed Friday with a black candle but consolidated above the balance and MACD indicator lines. During today's Pacific session, the price surpassed Friday's opening and approached its high.

The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward from the neutral zero line. It is evident that the target level of 1.1420 is likely to be reached soon. A breakout above this resistance opens the path toward the 1.1535 target. On the H4 chart, the price reversed upward from the support of the MACD line on Friday.

The Marlin oscillator returned to the growth zone after a false dip into the negative area (gray rectangle). The trend is upward on both timeframes, and we expect the price to reach the 1.1535 target level. The upward movement will likely continue toward the 1.1692 level — the peak from October 2021.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on June 3, 2025



On Monday, the yen strongly broke through the MACD line support and the target level at 143.45, moving 134 pips. The Marlin oscillator has settled into the bearish territory.

If the price fails to climb back above 143.45, it will next work toward testing the 141.70 support. A drop below this level would open the path toward the 139.59 target (the low from September 2024).

On the four-hour scale, the price has consolidated below the 143.45 level. Before the price could retest it as resistance, the MACD line had already dipped below the level, reinforcing it. The probability of the price rising above 143.45, which the Marlin oscillator had indicated, has significantly decreased. We expect the downward trend to continue.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challenges—including China's ban on rare earth metal exports, difficulties in U.S. negotiations with both China and Europe, hints that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine might be restored, and impending global energy shortages due to AI development—along with a proposed bill in Congress to impose a 20% tax on foreign investor income, this market rally appears overly optimistic. Specifically, Eurozone core CPI for May fell from 2.7% YoY to 2.3% YoY (forecast was 2.4% YoY), and overall CPI declined from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY, against an aggressive forecast of 2.0% YoY.

Yet the euro remains optimistic — yesterday's decline didn't reach any indicator lines on the daily scale, and today started with a new round of growth. Also, the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward without reaching the border of the downward trend territory. Only if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 1.1343 mark, would a deeper correction (targeting 1.1066) become possible. However, the price needs to break above the immediate resistance at 1.1420 to resume growth. The targets remain the same: 1.1535 and 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday. However, this seems to have been a false breakout, as the Marlin oscillator is now turning upward from the zero line. We believe that consolidation above 1.1420 — unlike the situation on June 2–3 (gray rectangle) — will form a more sustainable structure for further growth.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 5, 2025

After three days of struggle, the euro has broken through the 1.1420 resistance level. Now, the target at 1.1535 is open. A breakthrough above this level would allow the growth to continue toward 1.1692. The Marlin oscillator, positioned in positive territory, persistently pushes the price upward.

Such a signal on the day the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates is concerning. We believe that the euro's complex rise since mid-May has already taken this rate cut into account, particularly when we compare the euro's performance to that of other currencies, which have been stronger. Market participants may find hawkish hints in the comments from monetary officials (as is often the case) and will continue to drive the euro higher.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line and above the 1.1420 level, while the Marlin oscillator is rising in positive territory. We expect the upward movement to continue.

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