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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD April 25: The Market Awaits New Announcements from Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than during the first half of the week, and the market was also relatively more technical. Since the beginning of the week, we've been repeating the same message—market movements have been unusually erratic and chaotic, and the market is simply ignoring any macroeconomic backdrop. While the second point remained unchanged on Thursday, the first was temporarily neutralized. It is hard to determine how long that will last. Volatility on Thursday was noticeably lower. For most of the day, the euro continued to rise while the dollar declined, directly contradicting the macroeconomic data. The most important report of the day—U.S. durable goods orders—was unexpectedly much stronger than forecast. Growth amounted to +9.2% m/m. This figure is easily explained: by March, Trump's tariffs were already announced, prompting Americans to rush and purchase big-ticket items before prices surged. However, this doesn't change the essence of the report. The data significantly exceeded expectations yet failed to trigger any growth in the U.S. dollar—or even a market reaction. In short, there is no Trump news—no movement, and the dollar still doesn't grow. After strong growth on Monday and a sharp decline on Tuesday—triggered by the firing and subsequent reinstatement of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair—the price returned to the sideways channel it had been trading in all last week. Therefore, in the absence of new information from Trump, the price may continue to move sideways. Among Thursday's trading signals, we can highlight the bounce off the 1.1391 level, after which the price moved down a couple of dozen pips. While the move was small, such signals and profits are preferable to market storms and complete disregard for technical analysis.

The latest COT report is dated April 15. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears barely managed to gain the upper hand but quickly lost it again. The bears' advantage has visibly diminished since Trump took office, and the dollar sharply declined. We cannot definitively say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which can change rapidly under the current circumstances. We still see no fundamental factors justifying euro strength, but one significant factor is now driving dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't reverse so easily. The red and blue lines have now crossed again, signaling a bullish trend in the market. During the latest reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group increased its long positions by 6,800 and reduced its short positions by 2,500, resulting in a net increase of 9,300 contracts.

The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend on the hourly timeframe, though there is no clear trendline or channel. On the daily chart, we can officially say that the downtrend has been canceled—something that would never have happened if Trump hadn't started a trade war. Thus, the fundamental backdrop has broken the technical picture—something rare but not impossible. There is currently very little logic or technical structure in the pair's movements across all timeframes, and macroeconomic data does not impact the pair's dynamics. Trading levels for April 25: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666. Ichimoku lines: Senkou Span B (1.1182), Kijun-sen (1.1438). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals. Also, don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false. On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. We've seen much more important reports recently that were utterly ignored. However, the market is still in chaos and disorder, and the EUR/USD pair may continue to trade sideways until new tariffs or Trump firings occur.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis Overview

Last week, the bulls updated historical highs and formed a new maximum extremum at 3499.58. Afterward, gold entered a downward correction towards the support of the daily short-term trend at 3346.45. The market has taken a pause. If bearish sentiment receives a new impulse for development, the next target will be the daily medium-term trend at 3227.79, and then the corrective decline may extend toward the support of the weekly short-term trend at 3164.81. Eliminating the daily golden cross at 3163.64 and consolidating below the weekly levels at 3164.81–3131.58 would open up new bearish prospects.

On the lower timeframes, the main advantage remains with the bears. The market is operating below the key levels, currently at 3334.45 (the daily central Pivot level) and 3356.56 (the weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above the trend line and its reversal could shift the current balance of forces in favor of further bullish recovery. Resistance levels will be important for the bulls if the market starts developing directed movements, and support levels will be important for the bears according to the classic pivot points. Pivot levels are updated daily, and new actual data will appear at the opening of trading. ***

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair remained immobilized. There were no updates over the weekend from Donald Trump regarding trade developments, and no important data or events were scheduled for Monday. Therefore, the market had nothing to react to during the day. However, the EUR/USD pair has already been trading within a sideways channel for three weeks. Over the past few days, volatility has also declined significantly. Nevertheless, one should not conclude that the market has calmed down — instead, the market is waiting. Few believe that Trump will refrain from raising or introducing new tariffs. Already, reports have surfaced suggesting possible tariff hikes of up to 20% for the EU. Meanwhile, China is not engaged in negotiations with the United States, which could deeply frustrate Trump, who had counted on reaching a deal within 3–4 weeks. Therefore, it is too early to speak of the end or de-escalation of the global trade war. It must be acknowledged that many countries from "Trump's list" are negotiating with the U.S. about trade deals. However, as we stated two months ago, mainly weak countries — economically, geographically, or geopolitically — are trying to reach an agreement with the conflict-prone and "fair" U.S. president. For example, Hungary (even though it is an EU member) is eager to secure a deal. Vietnam, which faces 46% import tariffs, strives to negotiate. Talks are underway with South Korea, Japan, and several other countries. Yet this list is missing notable heavyweights like Canada, the European Union, and China. To be precise, consultations with Brussels are ongoing, but no sign of a trade deal emerging. The market cannot be cheered by progress in talks with Vietnam. The American market and U.S. investments constitute half of Vietnam's economy. The U.S. is an important economic partner for the EU and China, but cooperation with the U.S. is far less important than it is for Vietnam. It is also important to understand that America is a competitor to the EU and China, while Vietnam is unlikely to compete with the U.S. Thus, weaker players seek agreements with Trump, while stronger ones resist and demand a fair and equitable deal. The market is interested in progress with China and the EU. Without progress, the dollar cannot gain strength against its major competitors. Therefore, after reaching another high, the price has simply been moving sideways for three weeks. Current movements cannot be described as technical either since we barely observe any corrections. Accordingly, there is a 90% probability that market movements (or lack thereof) this week will depend solely on the U.S. president.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 29 is 101 pips, which is considered "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1284 and 1.1485 on Tuesday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone for the third time, signaling a new corrective movement phase, which, so far, is very weak — as were previous ones. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1230 S2 – 1.0986 S3 – 1.0742 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1475 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1963 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a short-term upward bias. For months, we have consistently said that we expect the euro to decline in the medium term, and nothing has changed. The dollar still has no fundamental reasons for a medium-term fall—other than Donald Trump. Yet this single factor continues to push the dollar into an abyss while the market ignores all other factors. If you are trading based on "pure" technical analysis or "Trump factor," long positions remain relevant as long as the price stays above the moving average, targeting 1.1719. If the price consolidates below the moving average, short positions formally become relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.0986 — though it is currently hard to believe in a dollar rally. In recent weeks, there have been no new developments regarding the escalation or de-escalation of the trade war, which explains the ongoing flat movement in the market. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 5: A New Week of Ordeals for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair remained flat on Friday. The day saw both upward and downward movements. It is a notable achievement for the dollar that it has appreciated over the past five trading days rather than declined. While we constantly mention the irrational nature of recent movements—as the market has mostly been driven by the "Trump factor" in recent months—last week's U.S. macroeconomic data largely pointed to another wave of dollar depreciation, and Donald Trump remained silent on the trade war. Therefore, the U.S. dollar could easily have ended the week with significant losses, but that didn't happen, again underscoring the market's illogical behavior. We won't focus too much on Friday's U.S. data as the market broadly ignores data releases. What was so positive on Friday? That April's Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts? So what if the March figure was revised downward? The unemployment rate didn't change—what's optimistic about that? Wages showed no significant changes. And there were no other major reports. Meanwhile, earlier in the week, the GDP report disappointed, pointing toward an approaching recession in the U.S. economy. If the U.S. labor market still holds up, that may be temporary. That said, we'd note that the dollar could indeed rise in the near term. This could happen simply because it has been falling for several months. Of course, if Trump tomorrow revokes concessions and escalates the trade war again, the dollar will likely collapse. However, the market has already priced up in the current round of Trump's sanctions. Technical corrections are still a natural part of the market cycle. In short, the worst-case scenario has already played out. Therefore, the dollar may stop falling if no further trade war escalation occurs. Currently, the Federal Reserve is the main threat to the U.S. currency. No one on the market seems to understand what the U.S. central bank will do next. If it rushes to rescue the economy, rate cuts are a bearish signal for the dollar. But if it aims to maintain inflation at a steady 2%, then rates likely won't be cut anytime soon, and the market won't have a new reason to sell the dollar. We expect a correction for now, but the hourly timeframe clearly shows that the pair has been trading within a sideways channel for over three weeks. The 1.1274 level, which serves as the lower boundary of this channel, still hasn't been broken. Flat conditions will persist as long as the price remains in the channel.

The EUR/USD pair's average volatility over the last five trading days as of May 5 is 82 pips, which is considered "average." On Monday, we expect the pair to move between 1.1218 and 1.1382. The long-term regression channel is directed upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area three times recently, resulting in only a minor correction. Nearest Support Levels: S1 – 1.1230 S2 – 1.1108 S3 – 1.0986 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 – 1.1353 R2 – 1.1475 R3 – 1.1597 Trading Recommendations: EUR/USD has begun a new round of downward correction within a broader uptrend. For months now, we've maintained that we expect the euro to fall in the medium term, and that hasn't changed. The dollar still lacks reasons for a medium-term rally—except for Donald Trump. However, that one reason alone has continued to drag the dollar lower, and the market is ignoring all other factors for now. If you trade based purely on technicals or Trump headlines, then long positions remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average, with a target at 1.1475. If the price is below the moving average, short positions are appropriate, with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1218. It's hard to believe in a strong dollar rally, but a dollar rebound is still possible. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 7: The Fed Meeting Becomes the Dollar's New "Headache"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade strictly sideways on Tuesday. The broader flat market has now lasted for nearly a month, and in addition to that, the market seems to have formed another, narrower sideways channel visible on the hourly time frame. In other words, we're now witnessing a flat within a flat — a total standstill. Last week, even a slew of key U.S. data couldn't help traders start a new trend, and there haven't been any significant developments this week. However, there are a few points worth highlighting.

First, the new trading week began with fresh tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. This time, the consensus is that he has targeted the domestic film industry. It's no secret that most of the world's film production centers in the U.S., but much of the filming happens abroad for economic reasons. Trump decided to "fix" this. Now, any film shot outside the United States will be subject to a 100% import tax. In our view, these tariffs are not as large-scale or impactful as those on automobile or steel imports, or those targeting specific countries. If Trump wants to damage his own film industry, that's his prerogative. However, these new tariffs make one thing clear: Trump's policy direction has not changed, despite his three-week pause.

Second, we'll get the Federal Reserve's policy meeting results this evening. Although the outcome is essentially known — Powell has repeatedly stressed there is no rush to ease monetary policy — the market could still start trading more actively. What can we expect from the Fed and Powell this evening? Either Powell's rhetoric remains unchanged, which would not inspire confidence in dollar buyers, or his tone turns more dovish, giving the market a fresh reason to sell the dollar.

In either case, a rate hike is not on the table, and the U.S. dollar has already fallen hard even when the European Central Bank was cutting rates and the Fed was holding steady. Therefore, the most likely outcome this evening is that the dollar either declines or holds its ground, but not more than that. Of course, we must acknowledge that anything is possible in the FX market. Last week is a perfect example: despite a flood of disappointing U.S. macroeconomic data, the dollar grew for four straight days.

Logic and consistency remain in short supply, so even a dollar rally on dovish remarks from Powell is not impossible. Still, we base our forecasts on logic, fundamentals, and macroeconomics. How can one reasonably forecast dollar strength if the Fed may soften its stance? Regardless, the dollar has not appreciated enough in recent weeks to claim that a downtrend in EUR/USD has begun.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 8, 2025

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its monetary policy unchanged following yesterday's meeting. Jerome Powell only slightly reinforced the market's expectations of rising inflation. Markets still anticipate the first rate cut in July, which is expected to coincide with the Treasury's launch of a new debt issuance cycle (at this point, Trump is likely to convince Congress to raise the debt ceiling without difficulty). Today, important data from Germany is due. The trade balance for March is expected to rise from €17.7 billion to €19.0 billion, and industrial production is forecast to show a 0.9% increase for the same month.

The technical picture for the euro also supports a bullish outlook. On the daily chart, we see a test of support with Tuesday's low, while Wednesday's black candle failed to reach this support. This morning, the price resumed its upward movement. A move by the Marlin oscillator into positive territory would confirm further growth. Three growth targets are 1.1420, 1.1535, and 1.1692 (October 2021 high). From that perspective, the current 1.1276–1.1420 range appears to be a consolidation zone before continuing a medium-term upward trend.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a brief consolidation and is now preparing to enter the bullish zone. However, the balance line indicator currently acts as resistance, with the MACD line at 1.1360 being the next resistance level. Strong German data may help the price break through these technical barriers. If the price consolidates below the 1.1276 support level, an alternative scenario involving a decline toward the 1.1110–1.1150 zone remains possible.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview – May 12: The Dollar's Success Is Unstable


The EUR/USD currency pair slightly rebounded upward on Friday, and overall, it has been gradually sliding down for several weeks. The movement has been so sluggish that we recently classified it as a flat market. However, at this point on the hourly timeframe, the pair has exited the sideways channel, making it reasonable to refer to this as a downward correction against the three-month uptrend. Were there reasons for the dollar to strengthen? Yes, and quite a few. The current fundamental backdrop consists primarily of the trade war initiated by Trump—this factor alone outweighs all others, which collectively have no more than a 20% influence on the market. As a result, no matter how good the news from the U.S. may be (if it's unrelated to trade conflict), the dollar struggles to grow. In recent weeks, we saw a fairly strong NonFarm Payrolls report, a reasonably solid unemployment figure (under the current circumstances), and a decent ISM Business Activity Index. In addition, the Federal Reserve once again left the key interest rate unchanged, and Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains the top priority and there's no rush to cut rates. These major macroeconomic indicators and policy actions supported the dollar. The only disappointment was the Q1 U.S. GDP report, which traders had largely priced in. While no one expected an outright contraction, the result reflected a logical response to Trump's trade policies. Whether the economy slowed or contracted isn't the main concern; the real risk is that continued trade conflict could turn this into a long-term recession. That would be a serious problem for the U.S. economy and the dollar. It's also worth noting that over the last three weeks, Trump hasn't introduced any new tariffs and now speaks only of upcoming deals and potential tariff reductions for countries that meet U.S. demands. Currently, only one deal has been signed—with the UK. Many experts see this more as a symbolic agreement designed to push other countries to the negotiation table. However, deals with economic heavyweights like China and the EU are what really matter for the dollar and the U.S. economy, and progress there remains lacking. So yes, the dollar has strengthened in recent weeks, but the market is still reluctant to buy it due to ongoing concerns over Trump. If trade tensions continue to ease, the dollar might gradually recover. But everyone understands that Trump is unpredictable. We wouldn't be surprised if the "first act" of his performance (trade deals) is followed by a "second act" that spells trouble again.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 14, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro chose not to continue resisting market sentiment and joined the broader risk-on trend. The U.S. stock index S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, the dollar index declined by 0.76%, and the euro appreciated by 0.88% (99 pips). The euro was also bolstered by positive ZEW economic sentiment data, which rose from -18.5 in April to 11.6 in May.

On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the MACD line, broke above the 1.1110/50 range, and is approaching the target level of 1.1276. A breakout of this resistance would open the path to the next target at 1.1420. The Marlin oscillator has reversed to the upside.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into bullish territory. The price is nearing the MACD line. A consolidation above this line (1.1214) would enable an attack on the 1.1276 resistance level (the July 2023 high). It is unlikely that an alternative bearish scenario will develop. For it to unfold, the price would need to consolidate below the daily MACD line, under the 1.1100 level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 15, 2025

By the end of yesterday's trading session, the USD/JPY pair declined by 73 pips, testing the MACD indicator line with a lower shadow. It's clear that an attempt to consolidate within the 145.08–145.91 range was made, but the effort was premature due to the presence of the MACD line within this zone.

In about 24 hours, the MACD line may move below the lower boundary of the range, allowing the price to prepare for a breakout toward the target level at 143.45. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has broken through the 23.6% retracement level, indicating that the bears have support. Overall, we expect a breakout of the 145.08–145.91 range within two days, although there's a slight chance it could happen immediately, as it did on April 10 (marked by a green checkmark). Therefore, we are closely monitoring the market's developments.

The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator has settled into bearish territory. As long as the opening gap remains unfilled, the overall price trajectory remains downward. After a brief consolidation, the price will likely continue toward the target level of 143.45.

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