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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 5, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 23.6% retracement level, reversed in favor of the euro, and continued its upward movement. By Wednesday morning, the pair's quotes consolidated above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0373, indicating a potential continuation of growth toward the next levels at 1.0411 and 1.0435. A consolidation below 1.0373 could signal a potential decline in the euro.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become ambiguous. The last completed upward wave broke through the previous wave's peak, while the most recent downward wave breached the lows of the two preceding waves. This suggests the trend may be shifting to a bearish phase, or we could be witnessing a complex sideways movement. The inconsistent wave sizes contribute to this uncertainty. Tuesday's economic calendar was sparse, with only one notable report that failed to support the bears. The JOLTS job openings in December totaled just 7.6 million in the U.S., significantly below the expected 8 million, forcing bears to retreat from the market. In my view, the U.S. dollar's decline is also influenced by Donald Trump's aggressive policies, targeting any country unwilling to play by America's rules. Fortunately, the conflicts are limited to trade wars for now. However, Trump has already expressed interest in the Panama Canal and Greenland. Should Panama and Denmark refuse to cede these territories, the situation could escalate. Currently, the geopolitical backdrop is unfavorable for the dollar, but from an economic standpoint, the dollar remains strong. The FOMC's monetary policy still suggests potential dollar strengthening in 2025.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, leading to a drop to the 161.8% retracement level at 1.0225. A rebound from this level supported the euro's recovery. A close above 1.0332 increases the likelihood of further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the 1.0435 level before bouncing off and reversing in favor of the U.S. dollar. A downward move has begun towards the 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. With multiple key levels within the current range, traders should closely monitor potential rebounds and breakouts. On the 4-hour chart, the movement has been mostly sideways for the past month and a half.

Wave analysis on the hourly chart has become increasingly uncertain. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave broke the lows of the two preceding waves. This suggests that the trend may be shifting to a bearish one, or we are witnessing complex horizontal movement. The inconsistent size of recent waves adds to the uncertainty. On Wednesday, economic data had little impact on traders' sentiment despite the presence of several significant reports. Initially, the bulls maintained control, but later in the day, bears took over—possibly in anticipation of a dovish decision from the Bank of England. The German Services PMI increased as expected to 52.5. The Eurozone Services PMI declined from 51.6 to 51.3. The ADP employment report in the U.S. showed 183K new jobs, beating the forecast of 150K. The ISM Services PMI in the U.S. dropped from 54.0 to 52.8. Despite the large number of critical reports, they did not provide a clear direction for EUR/USD trading. Following a strong upward move, a bearish correction seems likely. However, today's Bank of England meeting is the only major scheduled event, which could influence sentiment among euro traders. Currently, neither bulls nor bears have a decisive advantage.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reached the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436 before pulling back. This suggests a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, with a real chance of a return to the 161.8% level at 1.0225. Bulls would need strong fundamental catalysts to break above 1.0436. No divergence signals are currently visible on any indicator.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 7, 2025

Since Tuesday, the euro has remained within the 1.0350 to 1.0458 range, as investors await today's release of U.S. employment data for January. During this period, the price has stayed above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator has been developing in positive territory, reflecting optimistic investor sentiment toward the euro. The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls stands at 169,000, compared to 256,000 in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

We believe that the actual Nonfarm Payrolls data may slightly underperform expectations, as recent reports on jobless claims, job openings, and layoffs have worsened, often missing forecasts. There is also a possibility that the unemployment rate could rise to 4.2%. Notably, the Federal Reserve itself projects an average unemployment rate of 4.3% for the current year, indicating that, in its assessment, the labor market is nearing saturation. As a result, we anticipate a breakout above 1.0458, with the euro potentially targeting the 1.0534 to 1.0575 range, which corresponds to the support zone from February to March 2023.

On the four-hour chart, the price is fluctuating between the 1.0350 support level and the MACD line at 1.0420. The Marlin oscillator is near the threshold of a downtrend zone. A breakout above the MACD line would pave the way to attack 1.0458. However, a move below 1.0350 would not immediately signal a further decline, as additional support comes from the daily MACD line at 1.0325. Bears would need to consolidate below this level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 10, 2025


By the end of last week, the euro failed to consolidate above the trend lines of price channels, retreating back under the red descending channel line on the weekly chart.

This price movement suggests that after closing the opening gap, if the price fails to rise above the red line, it may attempt to break below the azure channel line. This would open the path to the key target at 0.9885, aligning with the red channel line.

The new daily candle opened below the MACD indicator line, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, supporting the potential for further declines. After closing the gap, we expect the price to move towards the support level at 1.0135.

On Friday, the price reversed downward from the MACD indicator line on the 4-hour chart. The price has also secured itself below the balance

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for February 13, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound traded in a range of over 100 pips, closing the day nearly at its opening level. The MACD line on the daily timeframe acted as support, from which the price rebounded, successfully closing above both indicator lines.

The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways but remains in the positive zone. The first target for growth is set at 1.2500, and a consolidation above this level will pave the way to the second target at 1.2616.

On the four-hour chart, the price is still struggling to break through the MACD line, although it is making progress. The balance line, above which the price is currently developing, along with the Marlin oscillator in the positive area, supports this. A break above yesterday's high at 1.2482 will signify an attempt to surpass the first resistance level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on February 17: A Sharp Rally in the Euro That Means Nothing

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its rapid ascent on Friday. At the beginning of the week, we were cautious about further euro appreciation, but by the end of the week, it became clear that this movement was not only possible but had already materialized. Over the week, the euro gained 200 pips despite a lack of objective fundamental reasons. Last week was filled with fundamental and macroeconomic events. Some supported the dollar, while others favored the euro. Now, let's break down what exactly supported each currency. To start, let's list the reports and events that worked in favor of the euro: the second estimate of Eurozone GDP for Q4 and the U.S. retail sales report. That's it. This is the entire list. The European GDP report was published on Friday, meaning that the euro had already covered 90% of its upward movement by the time it came out. GDP can hardly be considered a strong positive factor, as economic growth reached only +0.1% against a forecast of 0%, making the deviation minimal and the overall growth insignificant. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% versus the expected -0.1%, and this report was also released on Friday. Now, let's list all the events that supported the U.S. dollar: two speeches by Jerome Powell in Congress, where the Federal Reserve Chair reaffirmed that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates; the U.S. inflation report, which showed inflation accelerating for the fourth consecutive month, reinforcing Powell's statements and lowering the likelihood of even two rate cuts in 2025; the actual inflation rate, now at 3%—1.5 times higher than the Fed's 2% target; Germany's inflation, which fell to 2.3%, slightly increasing the probability of further ECB rate cuts; Eurozone industrial production, which declined by 1.1% in December, worse than the forecast of -0.6%; and U.S. industrial production, which grew by 0.5%, exceeding expectations of +0.3%. It is evident that most of the events favored the dollar over the euro. The reason for the euro's rise is straightforward, and we had anticipated it even before this rally began. The daily timeframe remains in a corrective phase that has not yet concluded. This correction has been relatively weak compared to the euro's three-month decline. This technical factor is the primary reason behind the euro's rise. Before initiating another global downtrend, market makers need to accumulate new short positions, and for that to happen, prices must rise to create more favorable selling conditions. Corrections typically take time, and the euro could continue to rise for another month or two, although the increases are likely to be modest and accompanied by frequent downward pullbacks. The only unexpected aspect last week was the intensity of the rally, which exceeded expectations.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for February 19, 2025

The UK employment data for December, released yesterday, helped the pound avoid a decline, even though the dollar strengthened by 0.34%. The pound fell by only 0.10%, while the euro dropped by 0.32%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, matching November's figure and defying expectations of an increase to 4.5%.

During the Pacific session, the pound attempted to break above resistance at 1.2616 but was unsuccessful. If today's session closes below this level, a drop towards the support level at 1.2500 is likely to become more pronounced. The Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe has turned downward. A break below 1.2500 would open the way for a decline to 1.2367, where the MACD line is located. Consolidation above 1.2616 will enable the price to rise to 1.2708 and beyond. The likelihood of reaching the lower target is 60%.

On the H4 chart, a weak double divergence has formed. However, the weakness of this formation poses a risk of the oscillator's signal line reversing from the zero level. The price still has the potential to break above today's high and consolidate. To do this, it must take control, break below yesterday's low at 1.2581, and pull the oscillator into negative territory. The primary support level for the price is the MACD line, which is around the 1.2537 mark.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 20, 2025

Yesterday, the euro declined by 22 pips; however, a daily close below key levels was prevented by the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe and the MACD line on the four-hour timeframe. If these levels provide sufficient support to push the price above 1.0458, and more importantly, above yesterday's high of 1.0462, the uptrend could resume, allowing the price to target the range of 1.0534 to 1.0575.

For a continued downward movement, the price must break below yesterday's low of 1.0401. A successful breach of this level would reopen the downside target at 1.0350. On the H4 timeframe, after rebounding from the MACD line, the price climbed back above the balance line, despite briefly consolidating below it.

This consolidation could turn out to be a false breakout, further reinforcing the potential for upward movement. If the price consolidates above 1.0458, the previously mentioned target range will come into play. At the moment, the probability of movement in either direction remains balanced.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for February 21, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rose by 80 pips, decisively surpassing the resistance level at 1.0458. This move has established the range of 1.0534 to 1.0575 as a primary target.

This range is considered strong initial resistance, where a market reversal could occur if a bearish divergence forms, potentially leading to a medium-term decline below 1.0135. Conversely, if EUR/USD manages to break above this range, the next significant resistance level would be at 1.0667.

On the four-hour chart, the price continues to rise above both indicator lines, with the Marlin oscillator firmly positioned in positive territory, reinforcing the potential for further price gains. Should EUR/USD fall back below 1.0458, it would not necessarily indicate a reversal; rather, it could signify a consolidation phase before another upward movement. A true reversal signal would require the price to drop below the MACD line and the recent low of 1.0401 recorded on Wednesday.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on February 24, 2025

On the compressed daily chart, the price is steadily approaching the green price channel line around the 147.07 mark. If this level is breached, it will open targets at 145.91 and then 145.08. The positive outlook for the yen is driven by expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike during the upcoming meeting on March 19.

During today's Asian session, the Nikkei 225 has declined by 1.30%, heightening market concerns about the unwinding of carry trades. Currently, the price is testing support at 149.38, which is the high from August 15. A daily close below this level could accelerate further declines. Today, in the Asian session, Nikkei225 is falling by 1.30%, and this increases market concerns about the curtailment of the carry trade.

On the four-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator have formed a small convergence, indicating a potential consolidation above the reached level. Upon its completion with the price staying below 149.38, the downward movement will likely become more stable.

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