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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. April 8th. Preparations for the ECB meeting are in full swing



The EUR/USD pair dropped to the support zone of 1.0785–1.0801 on Friday, rebounded from it, and resumed the upward process towards the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%–1.0866. A new rebound from this level will again benefit the US dollar, as will a return to the zone of 1.0785–1.0801. Consolidation of the pair's rate below this zone will increase the probability of further decline towards the Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.0696. In my opinion, the option with a decline remains the most consistent.

The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from March 19th), and the new upward wave has not yet approached the last peak (from March 21st). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the current upward wave must break the current last peak (from March 21st). If the new downward wave fails to break the low from April 2nd, this will also be a sign of the end of the "bearish" trend. The news background on Friday was very strong and extensive. It all started with the report on retail trade in the European Union. Volumes decreased by 0.5% m/m and by 0.7% y/y. Thus, from the very morning on, bears had reasons to counterattack. Next, in the United States, three reports on the labor market, unemployment, and wages were released, which also supported the bears, but the zone of 1.0785–1.0801 proved to be an insurmountable obstacle for them. This week will see the ECB's third meeting this year. I expect that interest rates will not be changed, but Christine Lagarde's statements will indicate that the regulator will be ready to lower rates at the next meeting. It's difficult to say whether the strengthening of the ECB's "dovish" sentiment will help the bears, as the market has long understood that the first easing of monetary policy awaits it in June. But once again, the news background will be on the side of sellers.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on April 9, 2024

USD/JPY


The USD/JPY pair covered the entire range of target levels 150.80-151.95 in two days. On Friday, the price turned upwards from the balance line (red moving average) and from the level of 150.80. This morning, the upper boundary of the range and the embedded line of the global price channel (blue) have been tested.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is directed upwards in the positive territory. Consolidating above 151.95 will pave the way for the price to hit the target level of 154.25. A downward movement is possible after the price breaks through 150.80. The pair has a good potential to rise.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance indicator line, testing resistance at 151.95. The Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend territory. Consolidating above 151.95 opens the nearest target along the MACD line at 152.45. Surpassing yesterday's low at 151.58 will relieve the bullish pressure and shift the focus to 150.80.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD on April 10. USD does not rely on traders' support

Hi, dear traders! On the 1-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rose to the resistance zone of 1.2705–1.2715 and rebounded from it on Tuesday. The instrument made a reversal in favor of the US dollar. This allows us to expect some decline in the direction of the support zon

The situation with waves recently has not raised any questions. The last completed bearish wave easily broke the last low (from March 19), and the new bullish wave is not yet strong enough to break through the last high from March 21. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair is bearish, and there are no signs of its end. The first sign of the bulls going on the offensive could be a breakout of the high from March 21. But to reach the 1.2788-1.2801 zone, the bulls need to cover a distance of about 140 pips, which is unlikely to happen in the coming days. If a new downward wave does not break the low of April 1, this will also be a sign of a change in the trend to bullish, but this wave has not even begun yet. There was no important news for the pound sterling and the US dollar on Tuesday. However, today a crucial report on inflation will be released in the US, which is already causing conflicting sentiment. On the one hand, inflation may accelerate again, which will arouse another wave of hawkish comments from FOMC policymakers. Any increase in hawkish expectations provides support to the US dollar, which has been going through hard times in recent months. On the other hand, the greenback did not grow in response to the US nonfarm payrolls released last week. Besides, the US dollar ignores the fact that the number of potential rate cuts in 2024 has been steadily declining. Last but not least, the US currency do

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the British pound after forming a bullish divergence at the RSI indicator and consolidation above the level of 1.2620. However, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator enables us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some fall in the instrument. In my opinion, it will be short-lived. The bearish trend remains on the 1-hour chart, but on the 4-hour chart, the horizontal movement is going on.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair on April 11, 2024

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in a flat on the 24-hour timeframe, which is the most important thing. We still expect movement to the south, but below the level of 1.2500, the pair has not been able to break out for 4 months already. Therefore, the flat must be completed first, and only then should the technical picture be analyzed for trading signals to form a new trend. And yesterday's decline in quotes by 200 points fundamentally changes nothing yet. Purchases of the pair are possible if the price fails to overcome the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Then the target will again be the level of 1.2800. But we believe that the time to end the flat has come. Illustration notes: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on April 12 (US session)

Analysis of transactions and trading tips on EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0702 occurred during the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. CPI data in France and Germany coincided with forecasts, indicating that everything proceeds according to the plan of the ECB. In fact, it said it intends to lower interest rates in June. In the afternoon, consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations will come out, but regardless of the data released, euro will have a chance for an upward correction, so be cautious with selling at current lows.

For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0678 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0725. Growth will occur after very poor statistics from the US. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0646, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0678 and 1.0595. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0646 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Pressure will return in the case of strong data from the US. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0678, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0646 and 1.0595.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 15

EUR/USD

Higher Timeframes Last week had a pronounced bearish character due to the significant downward momentum. Bears approached the influence zone of the monthly support at 1.0611, so the results of testing and interaction may determine further priorities and opportunities. The levels passed today act as supports, but due to the remote location (1.0755), they are unlikely to be relevant in the near future.

H4 - H1 The main advantage on the lower timeframes currently belongs to the bearish players. However, the pair is trading within an upward correction zone, now testing the central pivot point (1.0665). The next resistance in the development of the correction today can be noted at 1.0706 (R1), but the meeting with the weekly long-term trend (1.0771), which governs the current balance of power, will be of greater significance. A breakout and reversal of the trend could change the market's preferences. If the current correction is completed and the pair returns to the downward trend's development, the bears' focus will be on passing through the supports of classic pivot points (1.0599 - 1.0558 - 1.0492).

GBP/USD

Higher Timeframes Last week, bearish players managed to assert themselves by closing the week below the current supports (1.2464 - 1.2481 - 1.2503). The main task now is to maintain the achieved level. The next bearish target on the higher timeframes is the final level of the golden cross of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.2383). For bullish players to re-enter the market under current conditions, they need to form a rebound from the encountered support zone (1.2464 - 1.2481 - 1.2503)



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview for the GBP/USD pair on April 17th. British inflation could weigh on the pound

The GBP/USD currency pair also attempted to start an upward correction on Tuesday, but volatility throughout the day was again very low. As seen in the illustration below, what we mean by "low volatility" is clear. Out of the last 30 days, there were only nine days when volatility exceeded 90 points. Another nine days ended with volatility below 50 points, indicating a complete lack of movement.

Thus, the British pound has been moving very weakly in recent months. Last week, the pair exited the sideways channel in which it had spent four months, which was an additional "joy" for traders. The market finally considered the entire fundamental and macroeconomic background, which has long been signaling the inevitable rise of the American currency. As with the euro, we want readers to understand us correctly. We do not believe that the dollar should always rise.

Or that the dollar will rise for another year. But the current fundamental background, which indicates that the Fed will begin a cycle of easing at an unknown time, and the Bank of England - within the foreseeable future, supports only the dollar, as the Fed's monetary policy will remain "hawkish" even longer than the Bank of England's policy. Recall that the market was expecting the exact opposite at the beginning of the year. Everyone expected rate cuts from the Fed in March.

Then, it became clear that March was a miss, and traders switched to June. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is 24%. This is when, before the US inflation report for March, the probability exceeded 65%, sometimes even reaching 80%. We have repeatedly said that the market is wrong in its expectations regarding the Fed and Bank of England rates. And based on this erroneous opinion, it conducts illogical trading, which only causes bewilderment. However, the market is starting to come back to earth, so movements become more logical.

And if so, you can expect only a decline in the British pound and a rise in the dollar. Today, the inflation report for March will be published in the UK. According to experts' forecasts, the consumer price index will decrease to 3.1% y/y and core inflation to 4.1%. Thus, core inflation will officially be lower than in the US, whose Fed was supposed to cut rates as early as March.

Which of the two central banks is then closer to easing monetary policy? If we had assumed earlier that both central banks could start cutting rates simultaneously, now we believe that the Bank of England would be the first, whose rate is already lower. Thus, the overall conclusion can only be one: the pair should continue moving to the south. From a technical point of view, on the 24-hour TF, the pair has been correcting upwards for about half a year, and now it may resume the downward trend that started last summer. If so, the targets for the decline of the British currency are around the 20th level and below.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade sideways on Wednesday. After the price broke out of the 1.25-1.28 sideways channel, the pair suddenly stopped falling. Unfortunately, in this case, the pair may correct higher. We still expect a new downward trend since the pound doesn't have any solid reasons to rise. However, it appears that the market is returning to its previous stance where the pound is untouchable, no matter what happens. The British currency continues to trade in an aloof manner, despite last week's decline. Yesterday, the Consumer Price Index in the UK showed that inflation decreased to 3.2% in March. In our opinion, this is enough for the pound to continue its downward movement, as it should fall further even without this report. However, the market was disappointed by the fact that inflation did not sharply fall, although the Bank of England is now closer to the first monetary policy easing than the Federal Reserve. So for now, the aloofness persists.

Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe, but due to the flat movement over the past few days, all the signals turned out to be false. Initially, the pair breached the level of 1.2457 from below, then rebounded from it from above (a duplicate signal), and finally settled below it. Beginners could open both long and short positions yesterday, but at best, they faced breakeven outcomes. Traders could only potentially earn 10-15 pips with the second trade by manually closing it closer to the evening.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair on April 19th. The Bank of England may lower the rate in May

The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Thursday. In the EUR/USD article, we used the phrase that the British currency "remains flat even after exiting the flat." Let's explain what it means. The British pound traded in a sideways channel of 1.25-1.28 (approximate boundaries) for 4 months. Last week saw the long-awaited breakthrough below the lower boundary; after that, nothing happened. The super-overbought pound still has yet to decline despite the UK economy being in a recession, and the Bank of England might start easing monetary policy much sooner than the market expects. The pound is reluctant to depreciate, despite the excellent condition of the US economy, labor market, and business activity. The market refuses to buy the dollar, despite the Fed's hawkish policy stance and the absence of inflation slowdown overseas. Thus, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading illogically. In essence, we are still determining the completion of the flat on the 24-hour timeframe. Yes, the pair has exited the sideways channel, but on the 4-hour timeframe, it has been stationary for a week now. Some may argue that this week's macroeconomic backdrop is weak, hence the pair's almost immobilized state. We consider such an opinion erroneous, as at least two events in the past few days should have moved the price off dead center. Inflation in the UK is approaching levels where it would be appropriate for the central bank to start discussing monetary policy easing. Jerome Powell made it clear that any rate cuts in the near future are out of the question.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 22

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY The tests of the levels I identified in the afternoon did not materialize. The pair managed to recover its losses, and it stayed near the daily high during the US session. It is unlikely that amid the lack of important US data, buyers will somehow take the initiative at the current levels. Today, hardly anything significant will happen in the market unless the Bank of Japan intervenes. The absence of data paralyzed market activity, which keeps the pair in a narrow range with low trading volume and low volatility. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 154.79 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.29 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.29, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.32 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.79 and 155.29. Sell signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 154.32 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 153.93, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.79 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.32 and 153.93.

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