Wave Analysis by InstaForex

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2019

USD/JPY

The information received yesterday from the headquarters of the US and Chinese negotiators on trade encouraged the markets - representatives of the parties allowed the conclusion of the first phase of the deal until December 15, before the date of the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods. The US S&P 500 index gained 0.63%, Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.70% and China A50 grew 0.36%. The price turned from the achieved first bearish goal - from the enclosed line of the price channel, a little short of the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the negative trend zone, growth could continue, but still within the correction.



The correction can continue to the range of 109.30/50 (highs of October 30 and November 7), going over the range will mean the correction will go into a trend growth, the target will be the line of the green price channel in the region of 109.95. Leaving prices at yesterday's low opens the next bearish target at 107.57 - the intersection of the lines of the red and green price channels.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Developing the trading idea for oil

Good evening, dear traders! I present to you the development of a trading idea for oil based on volumetric analysis!

Let me remind you that the idea for purchasing oil for the absorption of the decline last Friday was presented yesterday (12/04/19), which happened without the participation of America, because they had a public holiday. After that, the Americans traded for the next 2 trading sessions at prices that were not very profitable for sales, i.e. cheap relative to prices before the holidays.

The price increase occurred before the news on Oil Reserves, but this also increased the probability of a maximum update, since oil production was sharply reduced and today, there was an opportunity to add long positions in order to update the last maximum of 58.74.

As a result, 250 points were earned from the entry point 56.30 to the crossing 58.74. Moreover, it would bring +60 points when adding a long position or purchasing from oil reserves.

Forecast:



Developing trading idea with a description:



Good luck in trading and follow the money management!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD reacting below resistance, potential drop!





Trading RecommendationEntry: 1.10660Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci RetracementTake Profit : 1.10280

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracementStop Loss: 1.11090Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance


(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Plans for gold

Good day, dear traders! It is time to turn to gold, for which there is a possibility of a large medium-term decline. Last week turned out to be very exciting for this instrument: at first, the main driver was the news on China, on which gold showed strong growth, but the week ended with a sheer drop in non-farms and a complete absorption of "Chinese" growth. It is important to note that a false breakout of the level of 1478.68, an important level for November sellers, was shown last week which confirms their strength.

Therefore, I believe that in the medium term gold will decline at least to the level of 1445.33. Whether this breakout turns out to be real or false does not matter, its presence is what is of significance to us. It is also necessary to remember that there will be another Federal Reserve meeting and a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday evening, which gold will definitely react strongly to. Therefore, I believe that until Wednesday, the development of a trend for gold is unlikely. I recommend that you wait until the pullback at least half of the Friday fall, after which you can look for the opportunity to take short positions in the medium term in order to update the price mark of 1445.33.



If the Friday fall is completely absorbed by buyers, this will mean that the priority has changed and the bearish scenario can be considered unfulfilled.

I remind you that the day of increased volatility in gold is on Wednesday evening - the interest rate on USD, as well as the Fed conference.

I wish you success in trading and big profits!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2019

EUR/USD
Yesterday's indicators on sentiment in business circles of the eurozone greatly exceeded expectations and the single currency closed the day with an increase of 28 points. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index for December jumped from -1.0 to 11.2 points while expecting growth to 2.2 points, the German index grew from -2.1 to 10.7 while expecting 1.1 points.



On the daily chart, the price exceeded strong resistance of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the embedded line of the price channel. The price exit above the signal level of 1.1116 (December 4 high) opens the way for further growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Today, the main news of the day will be the US central bank's decision on monetary policy, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. We do not expect strong movements in the euro until the evening, as it was yesterday.

What will be the Fed's forecasts on the economy and forecasts of the FOMC members on rates? The most obvious answer lies on the surface - economic forecasts will be moderately optimistic, rate forecasts will shift towards holding the current 1.75% almost until the fall-winter of next year. And if it turns out that way, then investors can count on maintaining the rate almost until the spring of 2021, until the new president takes office. A financial crisis may hinder this situation, the chances of the deployment of which are great next year, but so far this factor has not been taken into account.

In general, we expect the euro to return under the newfound support from the Fibonacci lines and the price channel and a further decrease in the price to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.



On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary with the growth territory, from which the indicator can turn down, followed by a price drop.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD. US inflation unfairly ignored: market is busy with other problems

Dollar bulls ignored the release of data on rising US inflation today. The euro-dollar pair is waiting for meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while the pound-dollar pair awaits early parliamentary elections. The remaining pairs in which the US dollar is a part of are closely watching the prospects of the US-Chinese negotiations in the light of the approaching December 15 - that is, the day when the White House could introduce additional duties on Chinese imports. In other words, the main currency pairs were distracted by other fundamental factors, so one of the key macroeconomic releases was left unattended by traders.



Nevertheless, this publication should not be ignored - sooner or later the market will return to these figures, especially if Washington and Beijing come to a certain compromise (according to rumors, Trump is ready to postpone the introduction of new duties in January or February). It's worth noting that the numbers published today came out in the green zone, showing impressive growth. In particular, the overall consumer price index reached 2.1% in annual terms - this is the best result since last November. On a monthly basis, instead of a projected decline to 0.2%, the index rose to 0.4%. The core index also pleased investors: the indicator met expectations at around 0.2% in monthly terms. The indicator came out in the green zone on an annualized basis, exceeding the forecast values (2.3% YOY). This dynamics is primarily due to the increase in energy tariffs (as in the previous period). In addition, medical services, food and transportation costs have risen in price.

But all these numbers were left out of the attention of EUR/USD traders (however, like the rest of the dollar pairs). Traders are clearly nervous on the eve of the December meeting of the Fed, the results of which will put dots on the i in many matters. First, the general tone of the accompanying statement is of interest. The dollar's position largely depends on how regulator members place emphasis in their communique.

The Fed definitely has reasons for optimism - many macroeconomic reports over the past month have been either better than forecasts, or have been revised upwards. For example, the growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter should have slowed down to 1.8% (with growth up to 3.1% in the first quarter and up to 2% in the second). In reality, the volume of GDP increased by 2.1%, and the component of personal consumption showed the highest growth from the second quarter of the year before last. The price index of GDP remained at the initial level of 1.7% (against the two percent forecast), while this indicator grew by 2.4% in the second quarter. Base RFE also accelerated - to 2.1% after more modest growth in the previous period. The indicator of orders for durable goods also pleased. Here you can recall Nonfarm: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased to 266 thousand, although, according to data from the ADP agency, this indicator should have fallen below the 100 thousandth mark. Employment in the manufacturing sector also increased (an increase of 54 thousand), after a decrease in the previous month. The unemployment rate has completely decreased to a half-century low - up to 3.5%.



It is likely that members of the US regulator in their accompanying statement will reflect the above trends in the economy. However, there is a flip side to the coin - this is the uncertainty about the prospects for trade relations between China and the United States, as well as a slowdown in the manufacturing and export sectors. The ISM index in the service sector, as well as the production ISM, turned out to be much worse than forecasts, reflecting the ongoing decline in activity, in particular, in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the most important inflation indicator for the Fed (base PCE) showed a negative trend, falling to 1.6% in annual terms. Thus, it moved away from the two percent target level.

All this suggests that the December meeting of the Fed can bring surprises. According to the forecasts of most experts, the Fed will maintain the status quo, and secondly, it will not hint at a possible interest rate cut in the first half of next year. According to this scenario, a point forecast will signal that the regulator does not intend to mitigate monetary policy in 2020. This is a basic scenario, which is already largely taken into account in prices. In case of deviation from it, the dollar will fall into a storm of price turbulence. The greenback will become significantly cheaper if the Fed allows lower rates next year and, accordingly, more expensive if regulators favor a tightening of monetary policy within the next year. It is also worth considering that today the regulator will publish updated forecasts for the economy, employment and inflation. If they differ significantly from October estimates, then the reaction of traders will also not take long. Against the backdrop of such prospects, today's data on the growth of US inflation remained in the shadow. The movement vector of the EUR/USD pair is completely dependent on the results of the December meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Development of trading ideas for USD/CAD and oil.

Good evening traders! Congratulations to those who used our USD / CAD trading idea and oil last time.

Trading idea for USD / CAD:



Development of trading idea for USD / CAD:



Trading idea for oil:



Development of trading idea for oil:



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

GBP/USD. Great Britain is outside the European Union. Problems begin even before the official Brexit.



Fanfares died out, everyone was drunk from champagne, and the whole Kingdom celebrated the victory of Boris Johnson in the elections, and now the country really has the right to prepare for the final "divorce" from the European Union. Most likely, Boris Johnson will succeed in unhindered dragging his version of the "deal" with the European Union on Brexit through the new Parliament, which means that London and Brussels can announce the beginning of the "transition period" on January 31 (or even earlier). We said earlier that despite the strong appreciation of the pound against the optimism of traders regarding Brexit and the formation of a "majority government" by conservatives, the UK and the pound are now facing harsh everyday life. Moreover, pound may continue to strengthen in pair with the dollar, however, traders will begin to pay attention to macroeconomic statistics from Foggy Albion and from overseas sooner or later, and it does not need to be analyzed for a long time in order to draw appropriate conclusions. It is unequivocal, in favor of the American currency. Moreover, market participants can "remember" all those failed statistics from Britain in those two months when no one paid attention to it. If we add to this the still potentially long and complicated negotiations with the European Union on new trade relations between the bloc and the Kingdom, it becomes clear that the economic situation in the UK may continue to deteriorate, which will definitely negatively affect economic performance.And in the last three months, the main indicator of the state of the economy of any country – GDP - either showed negative growth rates, that is, decreased, or showed zero growth.

Nevertheless, this is not all the potential problems that may be encountered in the UK. The fact is that no less high-profile than Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon won in her Scottish Parliament. From which her party scored 48 out of 59 possible seats. Sturgeon had also previously stated that Scotland is against leaving the European Union. Now, after the deafening victory of the Scottish nationalists, talk of holding a second referendum resumed. The leader of the Scottish National Party said that "the future of Scotland should be in the hands of the Scots." According to Sturgeon, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a mandate for Brexit in England, but does not have a mandate to withdraw Scotland from the European Union. Next week, the Sturgeon party will submit an official application for a referendum on independence. "It's not about to ask permission from the prime minister of Great Britain or any other Westminster politician. This is a confirmation of the democratic right of the people of Scotland to determine their future." Sturgeon emphasized. "Scotland cannot be a prisoner of Britain, it needs to be allowed to hold a referendum on independence, since it was on the verge of leaving the European Union against its will." summed up by the first minister of Scotland.

Thus, we believe that the UK can now face the new Brexit, even before the implementation of its own. Although it is difficult to say whether Nicola Sturgeon is able to hold such a referendum without the approval of London. And there is no doubt that London will not give approval. Thus,we can witness a new epic called "Scexit" (Scotland EXIT) very soon.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Trading idea for GBP/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! I present to your attention a trading idea for the GBP/USD pair.

So, the Conservatives won the parliamentary elections in the UK, and now, no one doubts that the party of Boris Johnson will bring Brexit to its logical conclusion. On this news, the GBP/USD pair increased by 3500p for 5zn namely at the time of the announcement of the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections. And all would be nothing - both positive and joy for Britain. Thus, only those who already knew does not speak about it. However, no one here says how it is possible to earn money on it now. Therefore, I suggest one simple trading idea based on the "Hunt for Feet" method, and it consists of developing the stops of pound buyers, from Friday, as well as today. The fact is that over the past 1.5 days, buyers can become (put their stops) only at the level of 1.33, which is also round. It is believed that this is a great goal of "stop hunters", and you can quite easily implement it by using the signals of your strategies on smaller time frames to enter.



As usual, it is recommended to develop against the "crowd." Following a strategy is a distinctive feature of successful trading.

Good luck in trading and follow the money management!

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!



Trading RecommendationEntry: 1.11073

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci extension, breakout level

Take Profit : 1.11868Reason for Take Profit:horizontal swing high resistanceStop Loss: 1.10616Reason for Stop loss:61.8% Fibonacci retracement



(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.