Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

EURUSD Faces Key Data and Technical Tests

The EURUSD currency pair, commonly referred to as the "Fiber" in forex trading circles, represents the economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United States. The pair remains highly sensitive to a series of key economic indicators and central bank communications. This morning, Eurozone data focused on services sector performance, with Spanish Services PMI at 52.8 (slightly below the previous 53.4), Italian Services PMI at 52.1 versus 52.9 prior, and stable readings from France and Germany’s final Services PMIs at 47.4 and 47.2 respectively, culminating in an overall Eurozone Final Services PMI of 48.9. These figures suggest modest expansion in some regions but ongoing contraction in others, likely weighing on the Euro. Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change releasing a solid 111K compared to 62K prior, alongside speeches from FOMC members Bostic and Cook, which may provide important clues on Fed policy direction. Additional data including the US Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories will further influence USD demand. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 7:00 pm will offer qualitative insight into economic conditions across the US. Given this mix, stronger US employment data and hawkish Fed rhetoric could boost the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on EURUSD, while softer Eurozone PMI readings add to the pair’s current challenges. Overall, today’s fundamental events are crucial for determining short-term momentum in EURUSD.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the technical front, the EURUSD pair is currently exhibiting a cautious bullish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The price is supported by a well-defined ascending trendline, which has held through recent pullbacks, indicating underlying buying interest. The pair is trading slightly above the 100-period moving average, which acts as dynamic support around the 1.12869 level. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low at 1.07363 to the high near 1.15700 show that the price is hovering just above the 23.6% retracement at 1.13725, a critical short-term support level. The stochastic oscillator is positioned in the mid-range but trending downward, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase in the near term. Overall, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend but is approaching a key decision zone near the 1.1370 level; a strong bounce here would reinforce bullish prospects, while a break below the trendline and Fibonacci support could invite a deeper correction toward the 38.2% retracement near 1.1250. Traders should watch for confirmation from price action and stochastic signals to gauge the next directional move.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

BTCUSD Technical Outlook as Price Crosses Below Cloud

The BTCUSD forex pair, commonly referred to as "Bitcoin," is one of the most widely traded cryptocurrency pairs, offering traders the chance to speculate on Bitcoin's value relative to the US Dollar. As a highly volatile and speculative asset, it has garnered attention for its rapid price movements and potential for high returns. Today's economic calendar highlights several important indicators that could influence the USD, which in turn may impact Bitcoin's price action. The release of job cut announcements and initial jobless claims are key indicators of the labor market's health and could significantly influence the USD's strength. A stronger-than-expected labor report might strengthen the USD, while weak data could lead to a depreciation of the greenback, thus potentially supporting Bitcoin's price against the dollar.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the BTC-USD H4 chart, the price has been undergoing a correction after reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,970 on May 22, 2025. Following this peak, the market entered a bearish phase, with the price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, which has turned red, signaling a potential downtrend. Additionally, the lower line of the cloud is moving downward, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The volume candles indicate a decline in buying interest, with lower volume during upward movements suggesting a lack of strong bullish support. The RSI, currently at 44.66, is hovering near neutral territory, indicating no clear overbought or oversold conditions. However, the MACD is showing a bearish crossover, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, as they point to possible further weakness in the BTC/USD pair.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

US30 Price Action and Technical Outlook on H4 Chart

The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow, is a key benchmark index representing 30 major U.S. companies and is widely traded in the forex market as a CFD under the US30 forex pair. Often referred to as a barometer of U.S. economic health, the Dow’s movements are closely tied to major economic news and data releases. Today’s fundamental analysis centers on a series of high-impact U.S. economic indicators, including labor inflation, employment change (Non-Farm Payrolls), and the unemployment rate—data that are critical in shaping the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations. While the U.S. Treasury’s semiannual currency report is tentatively scheduled, its potential implications on global exchange rate policies and any accusations of currency manipulation could influence forex flows and risk sentiment. If employment data comes in stronger than forecast, this could pressure equities due to renewed rate hike fears, while weaker labor data may support a more dovish outlook, boosting the US30. These developments make today's session particularly sensitive for Dow Jones price action, especially as traders await direction from upcoming figures and Fed sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical standpoint on the H4 chart, the US30 – Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading in a horizontal range between the support zone of 42238 and resistance around 43194, with price movement alternating between bullish and bearish candles. Over the last few days, price action has lacked strong directional movement but remains in a broader bullish trend that has recently slowed down. Importantly, price continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud, which remains green but has become thinner, signaling weakening bullish momentum. Previous candles tested the upper edge of the cloud but failed to penetrate it, while the most recent candles remain above it, suggesting dynamic support is still intact. Volume bars show a mixed outlook with no clear accumulation or distribution trend, although a slight uptick in green bars hints at buyers attempting to regain control. The MACD and histogram indicate weakening momentum, with a possible convergence forming that could lead to a short-term pullback unless fresh bullish volume confirms a breakout. Overall, the Dow is holding its bullish structure on the 4H time frame, but traders should watch closely for confirmation of direction around current levels.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

JAP225 Technical Outlook and Economic Impact Analysis

The Nikkei 225 (JAP225), often referred to simply as "the Nikkei," is Japan's premier stock market index, reflecting the performance of 225 major Japanese companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Known for its sensitivity to Japan’s economic health, it serves as a vital gauge for investor sentiment towards the Japanese yen (JPY) and broader economic indicators. Today's fundamental outlook hinges on significant economic releases, including Japan's Bank Lending data, Current Account balance, GDP deflator, and GDP growth rate. Favorable data in these reports typically strengthens the JPY by indicating economic health, potentially impacting the Nikkei 225 positively. Concurrently, traders will watch U.S. Wholesale Inventories closely; a lower-than-forecast reading might strengthen the USD, affecting JPY crosses and indirectly influencing investor sentiment towards Japanese equities.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the Nikkei 225-JAP225 H4 technical chart, the price is moving within a bullish correction, attempting to retrace a recent downward trend. The index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling bullish momentum, approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which might act as resistance. Although the price remains above the cloud, the Ichimoku cloud itself is mixed with a red upper band and green lower band, suggesting uncertainty. Notably, the cloud has become thinner, indicating potential volatility ahead. Volume indicators reflect moderate buying pressure, while the MACD histogram and lines suggest bullish momentum continuation, albeit cautious, as the recent bullish move appears corrective rather than strongly impulsive.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

UK100 Technical Outlook Resistance Test Ahead

The UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 or "Footsie," tracks the performance of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange and is influenced significantly by the GBP currency movements. Fundamental analysis today highlights crucial releases such as the British Retail Consortium's Like-for-like Retail Sales and employment indicators, including Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, and the Unemployment Rate. Positive retail and employment data generally support the GBP, bolstering investor sentiment toward UK equities, including the UK100, as robust labor markets and retail activity indicate consumer spending health, indirectly benefiting companies listed on the FTSE 100.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the provided UK100 H4 chart, price action indicates an impending test of the resistance line following a clear trendline support. However, price typically struggles to breach resistance on its initial attempt, suggesting potential multiple retests before successfully breaking through, especially considering the current market momentum. The Parabolic SAR shows bullish momentum, reinforcing the upward trend, while Bollinger Bands indicate moderate volatility with potential consolidation near resistance. The Stochastic indicator suggests a neutral stance, indicating neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum immediately, suggesting cautious optimism as traders await confirmation of breakout direction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

GBPUSD Fundamentals and Price Action Target Higher Levels

GBP/USD, popularly known as "Cable," is a major currency pair representing the British Pound against the US Dollar. This pair is highly traded, known for its volatility and liquidity. Fundamentally, today's upcoming news includes data from RICS on housing prices, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and trade balance, all critical indicators influencing the UK's economic health. Positive results in these economic indicators typically support the GBP by signaling economic strength, potentially increasing demand for the Pound. Conversely, US data releases, notably the Producer Price Index and unemployment claims, will influence the USD's strength, reflecting inflation pressures and labor market conditions.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the GBPUSD H4 chart, the long-term bullish trend established since January 2025 continues firmly. Recent price action illustrates bullish momentum, with the latest candles positioned within the Ichimoku Cloud and breaking through its upper boundary. Price is advancing from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (1.34772) toward the 0 Fibonacci level (1.35787), which has consistently acted as a significant resistance level. Volume indicators remain strong, suggesting sustained market interest. Additionally, the MACD indicator and histogram confirm the bullish sentiment, indicating potential continuation if resistance at 1.35787 is convincingly surpassed.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

US500 Price Action Near Bollinger Band Edge

The US500, commonly referred to as the S&P 500 Index, is a benchmark stock market index tracking the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Often nicknamed “the market” due to its wide breadth, the US500 is a key indicator for investors globally. Today, all eyes are on the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. These economic indicators are closely watched for signs of consumer confidence and inflation outlook—two critical components influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster USD strength by reinforcing a hawkish Fed outlook, while weaker sentiment may increase speculation of policy easing, potentially lifting equities. As the S&P 500 approaches key technical levels, today’s UoM data could act as a catalyst for a breakout or a retracement.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The S&P 500 price has been moving in a bullish trend since April 2025, maintaining its long-term uptrend with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The H4 chart shows the price action respecting a rising regression trend channel, with the latest candles forming near the middle of the lower half of this channel. Recently, Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly, indicating a potential volatility expansion. The price has reached a key resistance level around 6100, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band. After testing this resistance twice and failing to break through, the latest candles have turned bearish, suggesting short-term selling pressure. The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum with a potential bearish crossover developing, and volume remains subdued, indicating indecision or lack of conviction among bulls. As the price oscillates between the middle and upper Bollinger Band, the risk of a minor retracement increases unless upcoming fundamental catalysts reignite upward momentum.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

Detailed H4 Chart Analysis for AUDUSD Today

The AUD/USD pair, often referred to as the "Aussie Dollar," is a popular currency pair in the forex market, representing the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar. It is significantly influenced by economic events and data from both Australia and the United States, with commodity prices, employment figures, and central bank policies playing key roles in its movements. Today, the market is awaiting crucial economic reports. For Australia, the employment data, including changes in employment and the unemployment rate, will be highly anticipated. A positive outcome could signal economic strength, supporting the Aussie Dollar. Conversely, the US will release Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, reflecting foreign demand for US securities. If the TIC data exceeds expectations, it could boost the US Dollar as increased foreign investment in US assets generally leads to higher demand for USD. Additionally, the US Juneteenth holiday could result in low liquidity, which may lead to irregular volatility in the forex market, impacting the AUDUSD pair.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart for AUD/USD reveals a price moving within a slight bullish trend, marked by several ups and downs. The price has been fluctuating between the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, indicating some volatility. Recently, the price has moved from the lower band toward the upper band and is now encountering resistance at the middle band. This middle band is aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the center line of the regression trend, which together act as a strong resistance zone. The last candlestick is red, indicating the AUD USD price could struggle to break through this resistance. Additionally, volume indicators show a decline in momentum, with the previous large red candle followed by a smaller red candle. This suggests that the market may be losing bullish momentum, and the price could face a pullback before any further upward movement. The MACD and histogram also indicate weakening bullish momentum, further supporting the idea that the price may struggle to break through the resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore