Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

EUR/USD Sensitive to Fundamentals and Technical Resistance

EUR/USD, the currency pair representing the Euro against the US Dollar, remains sensitive today to key economic indicators and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic. From the US, market attention is focused on speeches by FOMC members Jefferson and Waller, whose remarks could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Additionally, US Crude Oil Inventories came in line with expectations at -2.0 million barrels, maintaining pressure on oil prices and indirectly influencing inflation expectations and USD strength. On the European front, German Final CPI month-over-month met expectations at 0.4%, indicating stable inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy. Meanwhile, remarks from Bundesbank President Nagel and outcomes from the German 30-year bond auction, yielding 2.90% versus the prior 1.7%, hint at evolving investor sentiment and economic outlook in the Eurozone. Overall, these developments, combined with cautious tones from both central banks, are likely to keep EUR/USD traders vigilant for further directional signals.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the EUR/USD H4 chart, the price is currently encountering significant resistance around the 1.1250–1.1300 area, a zone that previously acted as strong support and has now become a critical resistance level after the recent bearish breakout. A descending trendline further emphasizes bearish sentiment, suggesting potential downward pressure ahead. The RSI is gradually rising but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating limited bullish strength at this moment. Simultaneously, the MACD histogram is shrinking with a potential bullish crossover on the horizon, signaling weakening bearish momentum. Traders should closely monitor the price reaction at the resistance area around 1.1300; a confirmed breakout above this level and the descending trendline could lead to renewed bullish momentum. However, a rejection here may reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing the pair towards recent lows.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

S&P 500 Price Action and Technical Indicators Analysis

The US500, also known as the S&P 500, is a widely-followed index reflecting the performance of 500 major U.S. companies and serves as a benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market. Today's fundamental analysis highlights significant upcoming events, including speeches from key Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, whose comments often provide critical insights into future monetary policy direction. Important economic releases today, such as Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI), and unemployment claims data, are closely monitored as they offer crucial signals regarding consumer spending trends, inflationary pressures, and overall economic health, potentially affecting volatility in the US500.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, examining the 4-hour chart for the US500, we see a bullish price action sustained above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating strong upward momentum. The lower band of the Ichimoku green cloud is moving horizontally, aligning with the current resistance at the 0 Fibonacci retracement level. Recent candlestick formations have alternated between bullish and bearish, suggesting indecision at this resistance level as the price has yet to decisively break through the Fibonacci resistance. Additionally, technical indicators including MACD and its histogram exhibit decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at potential exhaustion. The RSI, hovering near overbought levels, and %R also suggest caution for traders, as the market might face a potential retracement or consolidation if bullish momentum weakens further.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

Dow Jones Price Action Analysis and Trading Insights

US30, commonly known as Dow Jones or DJIA, is a significant index representing the top 30 industrial companies listed in the United States, acting as a crucial indicator of overall market health. Traders often refer to this index as "Wall Street 30". Today's fundamental analysis for US30 highlights critical economic events including Residential Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Price Index, and Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan, along with an important speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Stronger-than-expected building permits and housing starts can indicate robust economic growth and higher investor confidence, potentially driving bullish momentum in the US30. Simultaneously, improvements in import price data and higher consumer sentiment readings could reinforce expectations of sustained economic growth, further supporting an upward trend. Market participants will also closely monitor President Barkin's comments for clues about future monetary policy direction, which could introduce volatility into the market depending on the tone adopted.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the US30 Dow Jones H4 chart, the price is clearly in a bullish trend, moving between the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level towards the critical 0 level, indicating a strong buying momentum. Price action is currently positioned above the Ichimoku green cloud, though the cloud has slightly narrowed, suggesting a minor reduction in bullish strength; however, the lower cloud boundary has flattened horizontally, offering solid support. The MACD indicator and its histogram are exhibiting bullish signals, with the MACD line remaining above the signal line and positive histogram bars gaining strength. Concurrently, the RSI indicator at 64.64 suggests room for continued upward movement before reaching an overbought zone. The Williams %R indicator positioned near -1.52 also confirms bullish sentiment, reflecting strong buying pressure.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore