Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

EUR/GBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.04.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP currency pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. The pair is influenced by economic data and policy decisions from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Today's market activity is expected to be impacted by the release of significant data. For the GBP, the focus will be on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector, as well as updates from the Bank of England regarding economic conditions and monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected data would likely support the British Pound. On the Eurozone side, industrial orders, production data, and retail sales will provide insight into the economic strength of the region. With both currencies seeing key updates, EURGBP could experience volatility depending on the direction these data points take.


Price Action:
The EUR/GBP chart on the H4 timeframe indicates that the price has been on a bullish trend recently, but it is now facing resistance at higher levels, as indicated in the chart. After the bullish movement, the price has encountered a resistance zone, which has prevented it from moving further upward. The last four Parabolic SAR dots have appeared above the candles, signaling a potential change in trend or consolidation. The short-term moving average (blue line) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange line), but it seems to be turning downward towards the orange line, which might indicate weakening momentum. Despite this, the last two candles are green and positive, suggesting a possible continuation of upward momentum if the price can hold above key levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted above the price candles, which typically signals a potential reversal or a pause in the current trend. This indicator suggests caution, as the bullish momentum may be weakening, and a shift to a consolidation phase or a bearish trend could be approaching.
Moving Averages (MA): The short-term moving average (blue) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange), indicating a bullish trend. However, the short-term MA appears to be moving downward towards the long-term MA, suggesting that upward momentum may be slowing. The positioning of these two MAs and the fact that the candles are now below the blue line points to a potential pause or correction in the trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 55.61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral position suggests that there is still room for the price to move in either direction, and the market is not showing signs of an immediate reversal or exhaustion.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is positive, showing that there is still some bullish momentum. However, the MACD histogram is starting to lose momentum, which could signal a slowdown in the current bullish trend. Traders should monitor the MACD for any potential bearish crossovers in the near future.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The support level is around 0.8580, as indicated by the price action on the chart. If the price drops to this level, it could find support and potentially bounce higher.
Resistance: The resistance level is near 0.8650, which has been an area where the price has faced difficulty breaking above. A failure to breach this resistance could lead to a pullback or consolidation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP chart shows a bullish trend, but recent price action suggests that the pair may be struggling to break through key resistance levels. While the Parabolic SAR and moving averages indicate a potential slowdown in the bullish momentum, the green candles suggest that there is still a chance for further upward movement if key support levels hold. However, traders should be cautious due to the weakening momentum in the MACD and the possible resistance at higher levels. With the upcoming news releases from both the UK and the Eurozone, volatility may increase, and it’s crucial to watch the data for any surprises that could shift market sentiment.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.04.2025

EUR/CHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.07.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR-CHF currency pair faces a mix of scheduled economic releases and central bank insights that could influence intraday price action. On the Euro side, traders are watching key data such as German Industrial Output and Retail Sales, which are leading indicators of economic health. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel is set to speak, and any hawkish tone from him may lift the Euro. Meanwhile, for the Swiss Franc, the SNB’s release on foreign currency reserves could impact CHF strength depending on whether their holdings imply defensive measures against EURCHF depreciation. Broader BRICS geopolitical developments may also influence both currencies. Overall, sentiment remains cautious with potential volatility.


Price Action:
The bigger picture on the EUR-CHF H4 chart shows prolonged sideways movement, with a noticeable pattern of long-wicked candles, frequent doji, and pin bars—clear signs of market indecision and unstable momentum. Recently, the pair broke above a short-term descending trendline, suggesting temporary bullish pressure. However, two major resistance barriers lie ahead: a horizontal resistance zone and the flat Senkou Span B from the Ichimoku Cloud, both known for rejecting price action. Despite the breakout, this remains a challenging chart to trade, with no clear directional commitment.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is still below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. The flat Senkou Span B acts as key resistance, while flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen suggest range-bound conditions. A break above the cloud is needed for a bullish shift.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI at 55.30 shows slight bullish momentum. It's above the neutral level but not overbought, leaving room for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD hints at a potential bullish crossover. The histogram shows fading bearish pressure, but the signal is weak and needs confirmation from price movement.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic lines are in a bullish crossover near 60, indicating upward momentum. However, it remains neutral overall, with a risk of reversal near resistance.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The ascending trendline around 0.9330 offers immediate support, backed by recent higher lows and price bounce activity.
Resistance: Strong resistance is seen at 0.9360–0.9370, marked by previous horizontal highs and the flat Senkou Span B, which often halts upward movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe reflects a delicate balance between short-term bullish attempts and broader bearish pressure, consistent with a classic consolidation phase. Technical indicators hint at a possible bullish continuation if resistance levels break, but no solid confirmation is in place yet. Fundamental catalysts from both EUR and CHF today may drive the next significant move. Traders are advised to stay cautious and wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection from current resistance zones before entering a position.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.07.2025

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.08.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair faces potential volatility driven by significant economic data releases. The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index, scheduled to be released soon, is a crucial indicator of Australia's economic health. Positive results will likely strengthen the Australian Dollar. Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy decisions will significantly influence AUD sentiment. On the USD front, the NFIB Small Business Index and consumer credit data releases could create volatility, impacting the US Dollar's strength and, consequently, the AUDUSD exchange rate.


Price Action:
AUD-USD H4 timeframe currently illustrates an overall uptrend, recently disrupted by a break below the ascending channel's lower boundary. The price action now tests a crucial support zone, exhibiting several doji candles that highlight market indecision and potential reversal signals. Should this support hold, we could anticipate a price retracement back to retest the broken channel boundary. Failure to sustain current levels may push AUDUSD towards the lower marked support zone.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently at 32.75, near the oversold boundary of 30, indicating potential bullish correction in the near term. Traders should monitor closely for RSI recovery to signal a price rebound.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD histogram is showing increasing bearish momentum, with MACD line trending below the signal line, suggesting prevailing bearish pressure. A narrowing histogram in subsequent candles would be necessary to confirm any bullish reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator currently at 10.34, clearly in oversold territory, hints at an imminent upward price reversal. Traders should await a bullish crossover as a confirmation signal for entering long positions.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator is positioned above the current price candles, signaling continued bearish sentiment. Traders should watch for any shifts in the Parabolic SAR positioning below the price as a bullish reversal confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support zone is around the 0.6480 level, acting as the critical pivot for near-term price action.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is around 0.6550, aligning with the recently broken ascending channel's lower boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD USD H4 chart analysis suggests cautious bullish anticipation if current support holds, supported by oversold RSI and Stochastic indicators. Traders must closely monitor the NAB Business Confidence release and RBA's statements for fundamental cues. The presence of doji candles at support underscores the potential for price reversal, while clear bearish MACD momentum calls for confirmation before establishing bullish positions. Investors should exercise caution given the upcoming USD economic releases that could significantly influence market dynamics.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.08.2025

GBPUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.09.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair is poised for potential volatility today as both UK and U.S. events are expected to influence market direction. In the morning, the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, along with the FPC Meeting Minutes and Statement, will offer insights into the central bank’s assessment of financial risks and its policy stance, potentially impacting the British pound. Additionally, the UK’s 10-year bond auction, with yields currently at 4.59%, may reveal investor appetite for gilts. On the U.S. side, attention turns to the Final Wholesale Inventories at 4:00 p.m., forecast at -0.2%, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 4:30 p.m., with expectations of a 1.7 million barrel decline. These releases may influence inflation and growth expectations, thereby affecting the dollar. Later in the evening, the U.S. 10-year bond auction and the highly anticipated FOMC Meeting Minutes at 8:00 p.m. could provide key insights into the Fed’s interest rate outlook. Together, these events create a setup for notable movement in the GBP/USD pair throughout the day.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD on the H4 timeframe is currently showing a consolidation pattern within a descending triangle, following a prior uptrend. Price action is now trading just below the 100-period Moving Average (blue line), suggesting weakening bullish momentum and increasing bearish pressure. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout. The price is hovering near the triangle’s lower boundary, which could act as short-term support, but repeated tests of this level raise the risk of a breakdown. If the pair breaks below the lower trendline of the triangle with strong volume, a bearish continuation could follow, targeting lower support zones. Conversely, a breakout above the upper boundary and a move back above the 100-period MA could revive bullish momentum. Given the current technical structure, traders should closely watch for a decisive breakout, as the pair is approaching a key inflection point.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is trading between the middle and lower Bollinger Band, indicating growing bearish pressure. The bands are narrowing, suggesting reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout. A drop below the lower band may signal continued downside, while a bounce toward the middle band could face resistance.
100-period Moving Average (MA): The price is currently trading below the 100-period MA, indicating a bearish bias. This moving average now acts as dynamic resistance, and a break back above it would be required to shift sentiment toward bullish.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The lower boundary of the descending triangle, located around 1.3540, acts as a key support level. This zone has been tested multiple times in recent sessions. A confirmed break below this support could open the way toward the next support zone around 1.3450, near previous consolidation and lower Bollinger Band levels.
Resistance: The upper boundary of the triangle, near 1.3625, is the immediate resistance. This level also aligns with the 100-period Moving Average, increasing its technical importance. A breakout above this resistance would shift short-term momentum to bullish, with the next upside target around 1.3700, where previous highs and the upper Bollinger Band align.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Given the current technical setup and the dense lineup of high-impact economic events from both the UK and the U.S., the GBP/USD pair is at a critical juncture. The descending triangle pattern on the H4 chart reflects market indecision, with price coiling between key support and resistance levels. Traders should prepare for a potential breakout in either direction, particularly as today’s fundamental releases—such as the FOMC Meeting Minutes and BOE communications—could act as catalysts for volatility. A break below 1.3540 may accelerate bearish momentum, while a push above 1.3625 and the 100-period MA could pave the way for a renewed bullish leg. As always, monitoring price behavior around these key levels in conjunction with incoming data will be essential for identifying the next directional move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.09.2025

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EUR-USD market participants are focused on significant data and speeches impacting both the USD and EUR currencies. The U.S. unemployment claims and speeches by Federal Reserve officials including Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly could induce volatility, especially if the tone leans hawkish. For the EUR, attention is directed towards CPI figures from Destatis and industrial production data from Istat, which could strongly influence market sentiment and currency strength, potentially setting the stage for volatility and trading opportunities.


Price Action:
Analyzing the EUR USD price action on the H4 timeframe, after breaking a critical resistance level around 1.16090, EURUSD is currently experiencing a pullback towards this significant technical area, now acting as support. This region also coincides closely with a rising trend line, creating a potential reversal zone (PRZ). Given recent bearish momentum in the pullback, a clear bullish reaction near this PRZ would confirm the continuation of the prior bullish trend, making it a key area to watch closely.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The indicator is currently placed above the recent candles, indicating bearish short-term sentiment. However, a reversal below the candles would suggest renewed bullish momentum.
RSI: Currently at 46.40, RSI shows neutral conditions with slight bearish bias. The indicator implies that there's still room for the price to either continue slightly downward or reverse upwards strongly without becoming oversold or overbought immediately.
MACD: The MACD histogram is showing diminishing bearish momentum, nearing the zero line from below. A bullish crossover, if confirmed, would significantly support a bullish reversal scenario in line with the PRZ.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support lies around the 1.16090 level, strengthened by a rising trend line.
Resistance: Short-term resistance is observed near 1.17400, represented by recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR-USD price action suggests potential bullish opportunities as it approaches a strong confluence of support around 1.16090. Traders should carefully watch this area for signs of bullish reversals, supported by MACD and RSI indicators showing waning bearish momentum. However, given significant fundamental news events scheduled today for both EUR and USD, market participants should expect heightened volatility and exercise risk management accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.10.2025

BTC/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.11.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today's fundamental outlook for BTC-USD is influenced by the upcoming USD economic data release from the US Department of the Treasury, namely the Monthly Treasury Statement. This data reflects the difference between the federal government’s income and spending. A positive actual value above forecast typically strengthens the USD, potentially exerting downward pressure on BTCUSD. Traders must closely monitor today's economic calendar as this could lead to increased volatility in the BTCUSD pair.


Price Action:
BTC USD H4 price action analysis reveals the asset recently struggled below the crucial resistance level of 110520. After considerable consolidation below this resistance, BTCUSD exhibited a robust bullish breakout, establishing a new all-time high (ATH) with a clear "Three White Soldiers" candlestick pattern. The pair is currently heading toward the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Given the recent sharp upward move, traders should prepare for a possible corrective pullback in the short term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned below the price candles, confirming ongoing bullish sentiment. Traders may interpret this as a signal to hold long positions, yet caution is warranted due to potential short-term corrections.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI has reached 77.59, clearly signaling that BTCUSD is in overbought territory. This suggests a potential imminent correction or consolidation phase, as excessive buying might taper off in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is above the zero line and continues to grow, indicating strong bullish momentum. Despite this bullish signal, traders should stay alert to signs of divergence, as momentum could shift rapidly due to overbought conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the previously broken resistance level of 110520, now acting as crucial support.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 114500, representing the next target area for bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTC/USD H4 chart analysis shows robust bullish momentum, validated by the Parabolic SAR, RSI, and MACD indicators. Despite the strong bullish bias indicated by price action, overbought conditions highlighted by the RSI suggest a possible imminent correction. Traders should maintain caution, carefully monitoring the reaction at the ascending channel's upper boundary. Additionally, the upcoming US Monthly Treasury Statement data release could introduce volatility, influencing short-term BTCUSD price movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.11.2025

EURCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.14.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CHF pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). Today, liquidity in EUR could be lower due to French banks observing the National Day holiday, typically resulting in irregular volatility. Meanwhile, the upcoming release from the Eurogroup meeting could significantly impact EUR movements depending on their policy stance and economic decisions. For CHF, traders are awaiting the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Federal Statistical Office, a critical indicator influencing consumer inflation expectations and consequently CHF strength.


Price Action:
Analyzing the EUR-CHF pair on the H4 timeframe reveals a persistent bearish trend originating from around 2021. The price has recently approached the strong support zone around 0.92300, coinciding closely with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, highlighting a Price Reversal Zone (PRZ). However, recent bearish momentum seems robust, indicating the current bullish attempts might merely be corrections, and a retest of the 0.92300 support level could be imminent.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are indicating a tight range at the bottom band near the 0.92300 support level, suggesting potential for a reversal or consolidation. Nevertheless, the recent price action’s proximity to the lower band emphasizes ongoing bearish pressure, cautioning traders about potential downward continuation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD shows a slight bullish crossover, reflected by the MACD line marginally above the signal line, yet the histogram remains negative. This signals that while there might be a temporary correction upward, the overall bearish momentum remains dominant.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator, currently positioned around 36.93, shows mixed signals with no clear indication of overbought or oversold conditions. Its mid-range position suggests that the market is indecisive at this moment, signaling cautious trading.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at 39.42, firmly in bearish territory below 50, indicating continued bearish sentiment. The RSI highlights the potential for further downward moves before approaching oversold levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate and critical support level is at 0.92300, closely aligned with the current PRZ and the Bollinger Bands' lower line.
Resistance: The significant resistance is located around the descending trendline near 0.93300, serving as a key barrier to any bullish correction.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR CHF's H4 chart shows a continuation of bearish momentum despite potential correction efforts. Technical indicators support sustained bearish sentiment, though temporary upward corrections are possible due to the proximity of the support zone and Bollinger Bands. Fundamental developments from today’s EUR and CHF news could significantly influence the pair, especially given expected irregular volatility due to the French bank holiday and the forthcoming PPI release from Switzerland.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.14.2025

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.15.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURGBP currency pair stands at a crucial juncture amid notable economic updates from both the Eurozone and the UK. For the British Pound, traders are closely monitoring comments from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey at the Annual Mansion House Financial and Professional Services Dinner, which could provide hints on future monetary policy direction and interest rate adjustments. Additionally, the British Retail Consortium's retail sales data remains influential, with stronger-than-expected figures likely to support the GBP. On the Euro side, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the wider Eurozone, along with upcoming Industrial Production data, will shape market expectations about the Eurozone’s economic trajectory. Positive surprises from these indicators could bolster the EUR, influencing the EURGBP price action this week.


Price Action:
The EURGBP H4 chart demonstrates a strong bullish trend that has been in place since late May. Price action shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supported by a robust ascending trendline. Over recent sessions, candles have moved significantly above this trendline, highlighting persistent buyer strength. While the bullish momentum is intact, the sharp ascent suggests the pair might soon face a correction, potentially revisiting lower Fibonacci retracement levels before resuming its upward path. Overall, the EURGBP technical outlook suggests the bullish scenario remains favored unless price decisively breaks below key support.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The bands are noticeably widening, reflecting heightened volatility and sustained bullish momentum in EURGBP H4. However, as the price hugs the upper band, it signals the market may soon exhaust its immediate upward drive, and a contraction of the bands could follow, ushering in a short-term correction phase.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is positioned near the 70.00 level, indicating that the EURGBP pair is approaching overbought conditions on the H4 chart. While this supports the strength of the prevailing bullish trend, it also warns of a possible pullback or consolidation as traders start locking in profits.
Williams %R: The Williams %R oscillator is hovering between 0.00 and -20.00, which corroborates an overbought market environment. This aligns with the RSI reading and suggests that although the bulls are firmly in control, the pair is susceptible to a near-term pause or retracement toward support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest robust support lies around the Fibonacci 23.6% level, aligning close to 0.86100. A deeper correction could see the price move toward the 38.2% Fibonacci zone around 0.85600.
Resistance: Immediate resistance sits near 0.87000; a break above could lead to multi-week highs, with the next key level around 0.87200 (previously tested in past price action.)


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the EURGBP H4 technical and fundamental chart analysis points toward a prevailing bullish momentum with potential for further upside, although short-term indicators warn of an overextended market that may soon enter a correction phase. Traders should stay vigilant for any dovish or hawkish surprises from BOE Governor Bailey’s speech or Eurozone ZEW sentiment results, which could trigger volatility and influence the next leg of EURGBP price action. It is prudent to monitor these levels closely, alongside the EURGBP technical indicators, for any signals of trend continuation or reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.15.2025

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.16.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is set for increased volatility today as both eurozone and U.S. economic data and events unfold. In the morning, the euro saw relatively stable releases, with Italy’s trade balance slightly beating expectations and the overall eurozone trade surplus remaining strong. Germany’s 30-year bond auction and the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report added to the euro-side focus. On the U.S. side, a heavy data schedule begins with slightly higher-than-expected Core PPI and PPI figures, followed by key releases like industrial production, capacity utilization, and crude oil inventories. Later in the day, the Beige Book and several speeches from FOMC members, including Barkin, Barr, Daly, Cook, Waller, and others, could offer new insights into the Fed’s rate outlook. With additional data on retail sales, unemployment claims, and housing sentiment also on the calendar, market participants should expect active trading in EUR/USD throughout the day.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe is currently exhibiting a sharp bearish move following a period of sideways consolidation near recent highs. Price action has broken decisively below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift in momentum after failing to sustain its bullish structure. This move comes after a series of lower highs, indicating growing selling pressure. The recent breakdown has pushed the pair below previous support levels, and the current candle shows strong bearish follow-through. The RSI is hovering near the oversold threshold, reflecting the strength of the downward move but also cautioning against potential short-term exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram continues to build negative momentum, supporting the bearish outlook. Given this technical setup, the pair may be entering a bearish continuation phase. However, with price now extended below the Bollinger Band, a temporary pullback or consolidation could occur before any further decline. Traders should monitor for either a confirmation of the breakdown with sustained lower closes or a potential mean reversion back toward the middle band.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting strong bearish momentum and increased volatility. The bands had recently begun to expand following a period of contraction, suggesting a potential breakout has already started. Continued movement below the lower band may confirm a downside extension, while any pullback toward the middle band could encounter resistance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering just above the 30 level, nearing oversold territory. This indicates strong bearish pressure, but also warns of potential exhaustion if selling continues without a pause. A break below 30 would confirm oversold conditions, while a bounce could suggest a short-term corrective move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is in negative territory and continues to decline, showing building bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, reinforcing the current downtrend. Unless a crossover occurs or histogram bars begin to contract, the bearish bias remains intact.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The recent breakdown area near 1.1600 now acts as immediate support. This level has previously served as a pivot zone during earlier price consolidation. A confirmed move below this support could expose the next downside target around 1.1500, which aligns with the mid-June consolidation zone and lower Bollinger Band extension.
Resistance: The 1.1675–1.1700 zone serves as the immediate resistance, marking the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. This area also coincides with the middle Bollinger Band, reinforcing its technical significance. A break above this resistance would suggest easing bearish pressure, with the next upside target around 1.1775, near recent swing highs and prior rejection points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with both fundamental and technical factors pointing toward heightened volatility in the near term. From a fundamental standpoint, a packed U.S. economic calendar and key Fed communications could significantly sway market sentiment, particularly as inflation and growth data continue to shape rate expectations. On the technical front, the sharp bearish breakdown below key support and the lower Bollinger Band, alongside weakening momentum indicators, suggests the potential for further downside. However, oversold conditions on the RSI and extended price action may prompt a temporary pullback or consolidation. Traders should remain alert to evolving macroeconomic signals and price behavior around the 1.1600 support and 1.1675–1.1700 resistance zones, as these levels may determine the next directional move for the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.16.2025