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EUR/GBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.04.2025
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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/GBP currency pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. The pair is influenced by economic data and policy decisions from both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Today's market activity is expected to be impacted by the release of significant data. For the GBP, the focus will be on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector, as well as updates from the Bank of England regarding economic conditions and monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected data would likely support the British Pound. On the Eurozone side, industrial orders, production data, and retail sales will provide insight into the economic strength of the region. With both currencies seeing key updates, EURGBP could experience volatility depending on the direction these data points take.
Price Action:
The EUR/GBP chart on the H4 timeframe indicates that the price has been on a bullish trend recently, but it is now facing resistance at higher levels, as indicated in the chart. After the bullish movement, the price has encountered a resistance zone, which has prevented it from moving further upward. The last four Parabolic SAR dots have appeared above the candles, signaling a potential change in trend or consolidation. The short-term moving average (blue line) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange line), but it seems to be turning downward towards the orange line, which might indicate weakening momentum. Despite this, the last two candles are green and positive, suggesting a possible continuation of upward momentum if the price can hold above key levels.
Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR dots have shifted above the price candles, which typically signals a potential reversal or a pause in the current trend. This indicator suggests caution, as the bullish momentum may be weakening, and a shift to a consolidation phase or a bearish trend could be approaching.
Moving Averages (MA): The short-term moving average (blue) has crossed above the long-term moving average (orange), indicating a bullish trend. However, the short-term MA appears to be moving downward towards the long-term MA, suggesting that upward momentum may be slowing. The positioning of these two MAs and the fact that the candles are now below the blue line points to a potential pause or correction in the trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 55.61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral position suggests that there is still room for the price to move in either direction, and the market is not showing signs of an immediate reversal or exhaustion.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is positive, showing that there is still some bullish momentum. However, the MACD histogram is starting to lose momentum, which could signal a slowdown in the current bullish trend. Traders should monitor the MACD for any potential bearish crossovers in the near future.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The support level is around 0.8580, as indicated by the price action on the chart. If the price drops to this level, it could find support and potentially bounce higher.
Resistance: The resistance level is near 0.8650, which has been an area where the price has faced difficulty breaking above. A failure to breach this resistance could lead to a pullback or consolidation.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP chart shows a bullish trend, but recent price action suggests that the pair may be struggling to break through key resistance levels. While the Parabolic SAR and moving averages indicate a potential slowdown in the bullish momentum, the green candles suggest that there is still a chance for further upward movement if key support levels hold. However, traders should be cautious due to the weakening momentum in the MACD and the possible resistance at higher levels. With the upcoming news releases from both the UK and the Eurozone, volatility may increase, and it’s crucial to watch the data for any surprises that could shift market sentiment.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
FXGlory
07.04.2025
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EUR/CHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.07.2025
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Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EUR-CHF currency pair faces a mix of scheduled economic releases and central bank insights that could influence intraday price action. On the Euro side, traders are watching key data such as German Industrial Output and Retail Sales, which are leading indicators of economic health. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel is set to speak, and any hawkish tone from him may lift the Euro. Meanwhile, for the Swiss Franc, the SNB’s release on foreign currency reserves could impact CHF strength depending on whether their holdings imply defensive measures against EURCHF depreciation. Broader BRICS geopolitical developments may also influence both currencies. Overall, sentiment remains cautious with potential volatility.
Price Action:
The bigger picture on the EUR-CHF H4 chart shows prolonged sideways movement, with a noticeable pattern of long-wicked candles, frequent doji, and pin bars—clear signs of market indecision and unstable momentum. Recently, the pair broke above a short-term descending trendline, suggesting temporary bullish pressure. However, two major resistance barriers lie ahead: a horizontal resistance zone and the flat Senkou Span B from the Ichimoku Cloud, both known for rejecting price action. Despite the breakout, this remains a challenging chart to trade, with no clear directional commitment.
Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is still below the cloud, indicating a bearish bias. The flat Senkou Span B acts as key resistance, while flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen suggest range-bound conditions. A break above the cloud is needed for a bullish shift.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI at 55.30 shows slight bullish momentum. It's above the neutral level but not overbought, leaving room for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD hints at a potential bullish crossover. The histogram shows fading bearish pressure, but the signal is weak and needs confirmation from price movement.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic lines are in a bullish crossover near 60, indicating upward momentum. However, it remains neutral overall, with a risk of reversal near resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The ascending trendline around 0.9330 offers immediate support, backed by recent higher lows and price bounce activity.
Resistance: Strong resistance is seen at 0.9360–0.9370, marked by previous horizontal highs and the flat Senkou Span B, which often halts upward movement.
Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe reflects a delicate balance between short-term bullish attempts and broader bearish pressure, consistent with a classic consolidation phase. Technical indicators hint at a possible bullish continuation if resistance levels break, but no solid confirmation is in place yet. Fundamental catalysts from both EUR and CHF today may drive the next significant move. Traders are advised to stay cautious and wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection from current resistance zones before entering a position.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.
FXGlory
07.07.2025
