Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.03.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) remains sensitive to broad macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment, as the cryptocurrency market shows steady institutional and retail interest. In today’s session, the focus will be on the USD side of the BTCUSD pair, with multiple economic releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and the Wards Auto data. Positive US data can strengthen the dollar, potentially pressuring BTC if risk appetite wanes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamental drivers include ongoing discussions about its upcoming halving cycle and overall adoption trends, which continue to shape the long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.


Price Action:
Over the weekend, BTCUSD showed a notable correction, moving from 78k to 92k on the H4 chart but failing to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This inability to push higher suggests that bullish momentum may be pausing, and the pair could revisit the 38.2% or 23.6% Fib levels if downside pressure intensifies. Price action has temporarily stalled near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that immediate upside might be capped. Traders are watching closely for any bearish follow-through that could send the price back toward the 0% Fib level in the coming sessions.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the BTCUSD H4 chart show that the price has recently touched the upper band, signaling a potential overextension. Historically, price retracements often follow upper band touches, especially if accompanied by lower volume or weakening momentum. A break back toward the middle band would indicate a corrective phase, aligning with the possibility of retesting lower Fibonacci levels. Should volatility increase, a close outside the bands could confirm a more decisive breakout or breakdown.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be hovering near the upper threshold of neutral territory, reflecting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions. This position suggests that while bullish momentum was strong enough to push BTCUSD to 92k, it did not hit a level typically associated with a clear reversal. A downturn in the RSI below the midpoint would reinforce a potential bearish pullback. Conversely, a sustained move above 70 would indicate strong bullish pressure and might invalidate the short-term corrective bias.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, showing that the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicative of ongoing bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars have started to shorten, suggesting a possible slowdown in buying pressure. If the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it would be an early sign of bearish momentum gaining traction. Traders should monitor this indicator closely for confirmation of any trend shift on the H4 timeframe.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, offering the first defense for the bulls. A deeper support can be found near the 0% Fib level, which could become a target if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around the 92k region. A break above this zone may expose further resistance near the 95k handle, a region of previous price consolidation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In this technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for BTCUSD H4, the current price action suggests a cautious stance is warranted. While the bullish momentum brought Bitcoin’s price from 78k to 92k, the failure to clear the 50% Fib level points to a potential pullback. Key economic data from the US could drive volatility for BTCUSD, as shifts in risk sentiment often impact the cryptocurrency market. Traders should keep a close eye on the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD for clearer directional cues, alongside upcoming US economic releases that may influence the dollar side of the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.03.2025

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.04.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens ahead of key events today. The Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) Williams is scheduled to speak, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is expected to show improvement, reinforcing USD strength.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) side, the market will closely monitor the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser’s speech, as any hawkish remarks could support AUD. Furthermore, key data releases such as the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Retail Sales (forecast 0.3% vs. previous -0.1%), and Current Account (-11.8B vs. -14.1B) could impact AUD’s short-term trajectory. Should retail sales exceed expectations, we may see a temporary boost in AUD, but bearish sentiment prevails given current technical conditions.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD pair has been in a sharp bearish phase, trading within the lower Bollinger Band before entering a correction phase. This corrective movement led the price back toward the midline of the Bollinger Bands, assisting the RSI in recovering from oversold conditions. However, after testing the midline resistance, the pair has resumed its bearish wave, reflecting persistent downward momentum. The MACD indicator also suggests a continuation of the downtrend, as the histogram remains in negative territory with bearish divergence strengthening.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price initially declined sharply, remaining near the lower band before attempting a recovery. The midline acted as resistance, rejecting further upside and resuming the bearish wave. The continued expansion of the bands indicates high volatility, favoring further downside movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, with a bearish histogram indicating ongoing selling pressure. This setup suggests that the bearish trend could persist unless a bullish crossover occurs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI rebounded from oversold territory but is now struggling near 36.83, still indicating weak momentum. If the RSI moves below 30, it could signal further selling pressure and potential downside continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The AUDUSD pair faces key resistance levels at 0.62530, aligning with the midline of the Bollinger Bands, followed by 0.62350, marking a recent swing high, and 0.62300, a psychological level that previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance.
Resistance: On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.61700, reflecting recent lows, followed by 0.61400, a stronger historical level, and 0.61150, which serves as a major support zone; a break below this level could trigger further downside momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 analysis indicates that the pair remains in a strong bearish trend, with technical indicators such as the MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands aligning for further downside movement. The rejection from the Bollinger Band’s midline confirms ongoing selling pressure, while the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. Traders should watch for potential volatility due to upcoming USD and AUD economic releases, especially the FOMC speech and Australian Retail Sales data. If AUD fundamentals disappoint, the pair could retest 0.61700 and potentially lower support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.04.2025

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis – 03.05.2025






Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF currency pair is currently being influenced by key economic releases from both the US and Switzerland. Today, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released, providing insights into inflation trends. A higher-than-expected CPI figure may strengthen the Swiss Franc (CHF) as it could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Conversely, a weaker CPI reading could put pressure on the CHF, allowing USDCHF to rebound. For the US Dollar (USD), several high-impact events are scheduled, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, and a speech by US President Donald Trump. The ADP employment report serves as an early indicator of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, and strong job growth figures could support the USD. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI will gauge the strength of the US service sector, and Trump's speech could bring unexpected volatility depending on any policy announcements. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations due to these scheduled events.


Price Action:
The USD/CHF pair has reached a major support zone at 0.8890, which coincides with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, a descending trendline support, and a previous horizontal support level. The price briefly dipped below this level but showed signs of buying interest, suggesting a possible reversal. If buyers step in, the pair could target the next Fibonacci level and descending resistance trendline at 0.8960 - 0.9000. However, if the price breaks below 0.8865, it could trigger further downside momentum, potentially leading to new lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 29.16, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests that the selling pressure might be weakening, and a potential reversal could be near. However, a confirmation through price action is needed before entering long positions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative at -0.002211, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the decreasing bearish momentum suggests that selling pressure is slowing down. A bullish crossover of the MACD line above the signal line would strengthen the case for a reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic (5,3,3) is at 27.11, approaching oversold levels. This suggests that the downward momentum is fading, and a bullish crossover in the oscillator would be a strong indication of an upward correction. Traders should watch for a crossover above the 20 level for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.8890, which aligns with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, descending trendline support, and previous horizontal support. A break below this level could open the door for further downside toward 0.8865.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.8960, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a descending resistance trendline. If bullish momentum continues, the next major resistance lies at 0.9000, which is a key psychological level and a trendline resistance zone.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CHF pair on the H4 timeframe is currently testing a strong support zone at 0.8890, with multiple technical confluences suggesting a potential bullish reversal. RSI and Stochastic indicate oversold conditions, while MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, which supports the possibility of an upward correction. If the price holds above 0.8890, traders can look for a rebound toward 0.8960 and 0.9000 as potential resistance levels. However, a break below 0.8865 could indicate further downside continuation. With high-impact economic events such as Swiss CPI, US ADP employment data, and ISM Services PMI, traders should expect increased volatility. Trump's speech could also introduce unexpected market movements, making it crucial to manage risk appropriately. Waiting for confirmation through price action signals before entering trades is advisable.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.05.2025

EURCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURCHF currency pair will be influenced by multiple forthcoming economic reports and events. On the Euro (EUR) side, market participants await the Destatis data releases on industrial production and trade balance (slated for April 7, 2025), as well as the Eurogroup meeting on April 11, 2025. Stronger-than-forecast figures could boost the EUR, while cautious commentary from Eurozone officials could dampen sentiment. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) reacts to SECO’s consumer climate data (due April 10, 2025); a better-than-expected reading may fortify the CHF, potentially adding downside pressure on EURCHF.


Price Action
On the H4 chart, EURCHF broke above a key resistance near 0.9523 and is now retesting this region as potential support. The pair is hovering around the middle Bollinger Band, which can act as a dynamic support. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, implying lower volatility prior to a probable expansion. If price action respects the 0.9523 level, the uptrend may continue, whereas a clear break below it could signal a deeper pullback.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on EURCHFH4 have been tightening, typically a precursor to a volatility surge. Price is testing the middle band, indicating a support zone that may help sustain the recent breakout. A move above the upper band could confirm bullish momentum continuation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 54, the RSI signals moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This leaves room for additional upside, though a drop below the 50 mark would hint at weakening bullish interest and an increased chance of further correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line, albeit with a contracting histogram. While this setup still leans bullish, diminishing momentum points to a possibility of a short-term retracement. Traders should watch for a bearish crossover to confirm any deeper pullback.
Williams %R (Williams Percent Range) Hovering near oversold conditions (around -90), Williams %R suggests that selling pressure could be losing steam. A climb above -80 would indicate a shift back into bullish territory, aligning with a potential resumption of the uptrend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.9523, which aligns with a recently broken resistance level and the middle Bollinger Band.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.9600, which corresponds to a minor psychological barrier and recent swing high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The EURCHFH4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis points to a cautiously bullish outlook, contingent on the 0.9523 support zone holding firm. Key technical indicators, including Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Williams %R, suggest that the uptrend could continue if buyers defend this level. However, traders should closely monitor upcoming Eurozone (Destatis, Eurogroup) and Swiss (SECO) data releases, as unexpected readings may trigger volatility and alter EURCHF’s price action.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.10.2025

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.12.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP-USD currency pair is currently influenced by key economic indicators from the US and UK. Today, traders are focusing on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which plays a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the USD as it may push the Fed towards maintaining or increasing interest rates. Additionally, the US Crude Oil Inventories report will provide insight into energy price trends, which indirectly impact inflation expectations and the USD’s movement. From the UK side, no major economic events are scheduled today, leaving the GBP vulnerable to USD-driven volatility. However, ongoing discussions regarding fiscal policies and global economic uncertainty may influence market sentiment.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart analysis shows that the pair is approaching a significant resistance level around 1.2934 - 1.3000. The bullish momentum appears to be fading, as evidenced by a bearish divergence forming on the RSI and MACD indicators. Over the past sessions, price action has shown a consistent upward trend, but the slowing momentum suggests a potential correction. If the price fails to break the resistance, it may retrace toward the nearest support levels at 1.2706 or the ascending trendline. A potential breakout above 1.3000 could drive further gains, but considering the overextended bullish move and weakening momentum, a retracement seems more probable.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots of the Parabolic SAR are below the price, confirming an ongoing uptrend. However, if the dots flip above the price, it would signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A divergence can be seen between price and RSI, as the price makes higher highs while RSI moves lower. This indicates weakening bullish momentum and an increasing possibility of a price correction. Additionally, the RSI is near the overbought zone (65.59), suggesting limited upside potential.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, and the signal line is converging with the MACD line, hinting at a weakening bullish trend. A bearish crossover could indicate a reversal or a deeper pullback.
Standard Deviation Oscillator: The standard deviation oscillator shows a decrease in volatility, indicating reduced momentum. This aligns with the observation that price action is struggling to break resistance, increasing the likelihood of a corrective move.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.2706, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.2934 - 1.3000, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of the trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP Vs. USD pair on the H4 chart shows sustained bullish momentum, but technical indicators signal a potential slowdown. The RSI divergence, declining MACD momentum, and reduced volatility indicate that a correction could be imminent. Traders should watch for confirmation of a bearish reversal, especially if the price fails to break 1.3000. A retracement toward 1.2706 is possible if selling pressure increases. Given the importance of today’s US CPI release, market volatility may surge, influencing the pair’s direction. Traders should stay cautious and incorporate risk management strategies while trading around key levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBP-USD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.12.2025

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.13.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURUSD currency pair may see increased volatility today due to Eurozone data (Unemployment, Industrial Production) and a panel discussion featuring Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, which could bolster or weigh on the EUR. Meanwhile, the USD faces multiple releases (Core PPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Storage, and a 30-year Treasury Auction), offering insights into inflation and labor conditions. These events collectively shape the near-term outlook for EURUSD H4, highlighting the importance of both fundamental chart daily analysis and price action for traders.


Price Action
EURUSD has been in a clear bullish trend since early March, with higher highs and higher lows supported by an ascending trendline. Despite minor consolidation in recent candles, the overall momentum remains positive. Pullbacks toward the trendline may present buying opportunities, as long as price action holds above key support levels.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period short MA has crossed above the 17-period long MA, confirming bullish momentum. The long MA sits below recent candles, and the short MA is close to price action, suggesting ongoing upside strength.
Stochastic Indicator: The Stochastic is near overbought territory, hinting at a possible short-term pullback. If it crosses below mid-levels, a deeper correction could emerge, but the broader trend remains bullish as long as it stays above 50.
Volume: Volume has aligned with the recent upward movement, indicating strong buying interest. Slight dips during consolidations are normal, but overall volume supports the bullish trend, especially on rallies.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.0980, which aligns with the ascending trendline.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1060, which coincides with a recent swing high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The EURUSD H4 chart shows persistent bullish momentum, underpinned by favorable fundamentals and positive technical indicators. While short-term pullbacks may occur—especially if the Stochastic continues to retreat—price action remains constructive above the rising trendline. Traders should keep an eye on today’s Eurozone and US releases for potential market-moving surprises, particularly regarding inflation and labor-market data.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.13.2025

ETHUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.14.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum (ETHUSD) remains a major player in the cryptocurrency market, widely used for decentralized applications and smart contracts. Today, ETH/USD's price action will be significantly influenced by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports from the U.S. These economic indicators can impact the strength of the U.S. dollar (USD), which historically shares an inverse correlation with Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. If consumer confidence is stronger than expected, it may lead to USD strength, applying bearish pressure on ETHUSD. Conversely, weak consumer sentiment and inflation concerns could support Ethereum’s price, as traders seek alternatives to fiat currencies. With ongoing regulatory discussions in the U.S. and potential institutional adoption of Ethereum-based applications, ETHUSD traders should monitor both macroeconomic data and blockchain-related developments.


Price Action:
The ETHUSD H4 chart reveals a clear bearish trend within a descending channel, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The cryptocurrency is struggling to gain bullish momentum, facing resistance at key levels while respecting the downward-sloping trendline. Despite temporary consolidation, Ethereum remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. If ETHUSD fails to break above resistance levels, further downside pressure may lead to another leg lower toward the next support zone. However, a breakout above the descending channel could signal a potential trend reversal.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA): The price remains below the 9-period short MA (blue) and the 17-period long MA (orange), confirming a strong bearish momentum. The downward crossover of the shorter MA below the longer MA suggests continued selling pressure, making bullish recoveries less likely unless a decisive break above the moving averages occurs.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic (5,3,3) is currently at 30.66, indicating that ETHUSD is approaching oversold territory but has not yet fully bottomed out. If the stochastic moves below 20, a short-term bounce may occur; however, sustained bearish momentum suggests further weakness unless a reversal signal emerges.
Volume: The volume bars show increased selling pressure, especially during major downward price movements. There has been no significant spike in buying volume, meaning the bears remain in control. If volume increases on bullish candles, it may indicate a potential accumulation phase before a breakout.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is $1,735, which aligns with previous lows and a key psychological barrier. A break below this level could lead to further declines.
Resistance: The first major resistance level is at $1,955, near the upper boundary of the descending channel. A breakout above this level could invalidate the bearish trend and shift momentum towards the bulls.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETHUSD H4 analysis confirms a strong bearish trend, with price action respecting a downward channel and key indicators pointing toward continued weakness. The moving averages, stochastic, and volume all support the bearish outlook unless a major resistance breakout occurs. Traders should monitor today’s U.S. economic data, as stronger-than-expected results may push the USD higher, further pressuring ETHUSD. A potential break above $1,955 could signal a trend shift, but failure to hold support at $1,735 may trigger further declines. Given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, traders should apply proper risk management strategies and remain aware of global economic and regulatory developments.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.14.2025

NZDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.18.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The NZD/USD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, NZD may experience volatility due to the upcoming Global Dairy Trade (GDT) data release, a significant indicator of New Zealand’s economic health, as higher dairy product prices typically strengthen the NZD. The US Dollar could also see significant movement today with the release of key economic data, including Residential Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Industrial Production. Positive outcomes in these indicators usually support the USD, adding bearish pressure on the NZDUSD pair.


Price Action
The NZD-USD pair analysis on the H4 timeframe demonstrates a strong bullish breakout above the previous resistance zone, now converted into support. Currently, the price has reached the Fibonacci expansion level of 100.0, indicating a high probability of a corrective pullback. Initially, the price is expected to retrace toward the ascending support trendline, followed by a potential deeper correction toward the horizontal support zone.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator currently reads 75.73, indicating an overbought scenario. This suggests a probable price correction in the short term to ease the overbought condition.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains bullish, although diminishing momentum indicates potential weakening buying pressure. Traders should be alert for a bearish crossover that could signal a reversal or pullback.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows a strongly overbought condition at levels 92.19 and 94.34, emphasizing the likelihood of an imminent short-term correction.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at the ascending trendline near 0.5770, followed by a key horizontal support zone around 0.5730-0.5725.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at the recent peak near 0.5822, coinciding with the Fibonacci Expansion 100.0 level. Further resistance can be observed at the psychological mark of 0.5850.


Conclusion and Consideration
The NZD/USD pair forecast on the H4 chart suggests continued bullish momentum, supported by current price action and technical indicators. However, the overbought conditions indicated by RSI and Stochastic suggest the pair is likely to see a corrective move soon. Traders should monitor upcoming economic news closely, especially GDT and US economic indicators, which could significantly impact the NZD-USD exchange rate.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.18.2025

USDJPY Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.19.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USDJPY currency pair remains sensitive today with important economic indicators scheduled. For JPY, upcoming releases include Japan's Machine Orders, Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, and Industrial Production, all crucial leading indicators of economic activity and currency strength. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook and recent interest rate statements also continue to influence JPY. Conversely, for the USD, traders will closely watch the EIA Crude Oil Inventories, a key measure influencing the US Dollar through energy market sentiment. These fundamental releases could significantly impact USDJPY volatility.


Price Action
USDJPY price action analysis in the H4 timeframe reveals a confirmed bullish reversal. After breaking the downtrend line, price has entered an ascending channel, currently testing the lower boundary and coinciding with EMA support zones. Recent candles suggest bullish sentiment may continue, targeting the upper boundary of the ascending channel, reinforcing the bullish outlook.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below recent candles, indicating bullish momentum and a positive trend continuation signal for USDJPY.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Price remains above both the short-term and medium-term EMA lines, highlighting bullish support that can propel USDJPY higher.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 58.58, RSI remains comfortably within neutral territory, suggesting sufficient room for further bullish movement without immediate risk of overbought conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is above the signal line, maintaining positive values, indicative of sustained bullish momentum, although recent histogram bars are shorter, signaling slightly decreased buying momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator has recently approached the oversold region and is now curving upwards, providing a bullish crossover that indicates renewed buying interest could lift prices further.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel at approximately 148.900, strengthened by EMA convergence.
Resistance: Key resistance is observed near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at approximately 149.900, marking recent price highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The current H4 analysis for USDJPY indicates bullish momentum supported by key technical indicators such as Parabolic SAR, EMA, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic oscillator. The ascending channel supports further bullish sentiment. Traders must remain cautious and monitor upcoming fundamental economic data releases closely, which can significantly affect the USDJPY exchange rate, leading to potential volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.19.2025