Daily Forex Analysis By FXGlory

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.06.2025







Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USDCAD currency pair is experiencing volatility due to key economic events today. The US Dollar (USD) is impacted by multiple speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Christopher Waller, which may provide monetary policy signals affecting market sentiment. If their comments are hawkish, the USD could strengthen, while dovish remarks may lead to USD weakness. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, and Productivity Reports will offer insights into the US labor market, potentially adding further USD volatility. On the Canadian Dollar (CAD) side, the Ivey PMI report is crucial; a higher-than-expected reading could strengthen CAD, driving USDCAD lower, while a weak reading could weaken CAD, pushing USD CAD higher.


Price Action Analysis
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a sharp bearish trend, followed by a minor correction in the last five candles. Four of these candles are bullish but relatively small, indicating a weak recovery attempt. The USD/CAD Price has found support at 1.4280, leading to a slight bounce, but the lack of strong bullish momentum suggests that this is likely a temporary consolidation rather than a reversal. The downtrend remains intact, and unless buyers push above key resistance levels, further bearish pressure could emerge.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 - Blue & MA 17 - Red): The short-term MA (9) has crossed below the long-term MA (17), forming a bearish crossover, confirming a downtrend continuation signal. The moving averages are both sloping downward, reinforcing selling pressure. Despite the recent small bullish candles, the USD CAD price remains below both moving averages, meaning the bearish trend is still dominant unless price reclaims the moving averages.
Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): The RSI is at 41.82, signaling bearish sentiment but not yet oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room for further downside before the market reaches oversold territory. If the RSI remains below 50, bears remain in control, and a drop below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, potentially leading to a short-term reversal or consolidation.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO is at -0.014, confirming that negative momentum is still dominant, although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating a possible slowdown in bearish momentum. If AO turns positive, it could suggest a trend shift, but for now, the bearish trend remains intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.4280, which has acted as a bounce level in recent price action, and if broken, it could push the USD/CAD price further down.
Resistance: The first resistance level is 1.4385, which aligns with recent price rejections and the 9-period moving average, while the next major resistance level is 1.4440, corresponding to the previous breakdown zone. A break above this level would challenge the bearish scenario and indicate potential bullish momentum.



Conclusion and Considerations
The USDCAD H4 technical analysis suggests a bearish trend continuation, with the bearish moving average crossover, RSI below 50, and AO still negative reinforcing the downside bias. The recent minor bullish correction lacks strong momentum, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend unless buyers push above key resistance levels. Upcoming fundamental news events, including Ivey PMI for CAD and FOMC speeches, could drive volatility, making it crucial to monitor USDCAD price reactions. Traders should watch for a breakout or rejection at resistance levels, while a break below 1.4280 could trigger further bearish movement. Proper risk management is crucial, given the upcoming news releases that may cause sharp price fluctuations.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.06.2025

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The price of Gold (XAU/USD) remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and upcoming fundamental data releases. Today, the market is closely watching the Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. If inflation expectations rise, it could signal potential hawkish monetary policy from the Fed, strengthening the USD and pressuring Gold prices. Conversely, lower inflation expectations may support Gold as an inflation hedge. Additionally, broader market sentiment around interest rate decisions and geopolitical risks could drive gold price action. Investors will also monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for signs of strength or weakness, influencing Gold’s movement.


Price Action
Gold has been in a strong uptrend, continuously making new all-time highs over the past few weeks. However, after failing to break the previous ATH, the price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern, suggesting potential downside correction before a continuation of the bullish move. The last red candlestick with a long lower wick indicates strong rejection at the ATH level, reinforcing a temporary pullback. The first support level is the ascending trendline (green), and if the correction continues, the second support level lies around 2830. If the price finds strong demand at these levels, the bullish structure may resume, aiming for new all-time highs.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the price, confirming that the bullish trend remains intact. However, a shift in position above the price would indicate a potential trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: Gold is currently supported by the middle Bollinger Band (20-period moving average). If the price continues to correct lower, it may test the lower Bollinger Band, acting as dynamic support. If the price rebounds from the middle band, the uptrend remains valid.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 62.48, still below the overbought threshold (70). This indicates that Gold has room for further upside, but a break below 50 could suggest increasing bearish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a bullish momentum; however, the histogram shows weakening bullish strength, suggesting a potential consolidation or correction before another upward movement.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is currently at -37.17, which is close to the overbought zone but still within neutral territory. If the value moves further downward, it may indicate a potential short-term correction.


Support and Resistance Levels
support: Immediate support is located at 2854 (green ascending trendline). If broken, the next key level is at 2830, a recent demand zone.
Resistance: Major resistance remains at 2871, which aligns with the last all-time high. A breakout above this level could lead to new record highs, pushing Gold towards 2900 and beyond.


Conclusion and Considerations
Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, but the formation of a double-top pattern suggests that a short-term pullback is likely before another leg higher. Traders should watch the key support zones at 2854 and 2830, as a bounce from these areas could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, breaking below these levels might trigger further correction. The RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR confirm that bullish momentum is still present, but some caution is warranted due to weakening momentum signals. The upcoming Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations could influence the USD, thereby impacting Gold prices. If the report suggests higher inflation expectations, USD strength could push Gold lower, whereas weaker expectations could support Gold’s rally.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.10.2025

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.11.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by the current market sentiment, economic data, and central bank policies. Today, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to have low liquidity due to a Bank Holiday in Japan. This could lead to reduced volatility in the early session. However, significant movement is anticipated later due to multiple speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony at 5:00 PM GMT+2. PowellÂ’s comments will likely provide insights into future interest rate decisions, which could lead to increased volatility in USD-related pairs. Additionally, FOMC Members Hammack, Bowman, and Williams will speak later, adding to potential market fluctuations. Traders should closely monitor these events, as any hawkish or dovish remarks could drive significant price action in USDJPY.


Price Action:
The USDJPY H4 chart shows a bearish trend over the past several days. The pair recently started a weak correction phase, attempting to retrace some of its losses. The USD JPY price today is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that selling pressure is still strong but also hinting at a possible short-term rebound. If the correction gains momentum, a test of key resistance levels is possible. However, a failure to hold recent gains could see the USD JPY pair continue its downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling that the market is in a bearish trend but also suggesting a potential short-term correction. If the USD/JPY price fails to break above the middle band, the downtrend is likely to resume.
Volume Indicator: The volume is also in a bearish trend, confirming that selling pressure remains dominant. However, there are signs that the volume may be decreasing, indicating a potential end to the correction phase soon.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 42.00, which means the USD-JPY is not yet in the oversold zone (below 30). This suggests that there is still room for further downside, but a potential reversal could be near if RSI moves lower and approaches oversold conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 150.000, 149.300, and148.500. These levels could be considered as targets for the upcoming bearish wave.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 152.500, 153.000, and 153.800. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY H4 analysis suggests that the pair is still in a bearish phase, but a short-term correction is underway. The Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Volume indicators indicate that while selling pressure remains strong, a temporary rebound is possible. However, todayÂ’s Fed Chair PowellÂ’s speech at 5:00 PM GMT+2 and other FOMC membersÂ’ speeches could significantly impact the USD, leading to sharp price movements. Given the low liquidity from the JPY side due to the Bank Holiday, traders should be cautious of sudden volatility spikes. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and adjust their trading strategies based on upcoming Fed comments. A break below 150.750 could extend the downtrend, while a push above 152.500 might signal a stronger recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.11.2025

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Chart Daily Analysis for 02.12.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD currency pair may see heightened volatility today and in the coming sessions due to a series of scheduled US and Canadian economic events. On the US side, traders will look closely at upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases on March 12, 2025, as well as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other FOMC members, which can offer critical clues on the US interest rate path. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could react significantly to the Bank of Canada (BOC) Minutes release set for March 26, 2025, and crude oil inventory reports given Canada’s sizable energy sector. These factors, combined with ongoing market sentiment around inflation and economic growth, may create a catalyst for a new price direction on the USD-CAD H4 chart.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD chart shows that the pair has been stuck for quite some time in a range channel (as indicated by the two blue horizontal lines). A recent breakout attempt above the channel failed, and price action has since retested the lower boundary twice, hinting at building downside pressure. The red cycle line visible on the chart suggests the timing for a new directional move may be near, and the formation of consecutive bearish candles signals a rising possibility of a sustained break below the channel support. Traders should monitor how the pair behaves around this critical zone, as a confirmed break could trigger a fresh downward trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The three Bollinger Bands on the USD-CAD chart (the moving average center line, plus the upper and lower standard deviation lines) have converged closer together, indicating a period of lower volatility. Such tightening bands frequently precede a breakout move, highlighting the potential for a strong price action shift once volatility returns. The price has gravitated near the lower Band in recent sessions, reflecting a growing bearish bias. This contraction phase can end abruptly if the pair breaks convincingly below the channel support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots have formed above the most recent candles, illustrating that downside momentum is beginning to dominate. When the dots remain above price bars, it typically suggests a short-term downtrend. A continuation of this pattern will reinforce bearish sentiment and further align with the notion of a pending channel breakdown. Traders often look for price and Parabolic SAR alignment to confirm momentum direction.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI reading near 39 indicates that momentum is leaning to the downside without having reached oversold territory yet. An RSI below 50 generally reflects a bearish outlook, though there is still room for additional selling pressure before oversold conditions emerge. If RSI continues to drop, it could validate increased bearish control. Conversely, a move back above 50 might signal a swing in momentum favoring buyers.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support rests around the 1.4230 level, the lower boundary of the established price channel. A decisive close below this threshold could open the door toward the 1.4100 mark, which stands as the next notable support.
Resistance: Key resistance is observed near 1.4450, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. An additional resistance hurdle waits around 1.4700, which coincides with prior swing highs and could test bullish commitments if price surges upward.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD Vs. CAD pair appears poised for a potential breakout from its prolonged consolidation, and current technical indicators skew bearish. While a downside break remains likely given the failed attempt to breach the channel top and repeated tests of the lower boundary, major fundamental releases—such as US CPI and BOC Minutes—could inject sudden volatility and shift momentum. Traders conducting a technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for USDCAD should monitor both the market’s reaction to upcoming news and the price action around critical support and resistance levels. Caution and diligent risk management remain key, especially if a definitive channel break to the downside materializes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.12.2025

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.13.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair is poised for volatility due to several key economic releases today. For the British Pound (GBP), the RICS Housing Price Balance report could influence market sentiment as it serves as an early indicator of housing inflation trends. Additionally, upcoming GDP, Construction Output, Trade Balance, and Industrial Production reports in the following days will further shape market expectations regarding the UK economy.
On the US Dollar (USD) side, a press conference by US President Donald Trump and a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller about stablecoins could introduce significant market movement. Additionally, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is scheduled, serving as a leading indicator of inflation. The combination of UK economic reports and US policy discussions may drive volatility in the GBPUSD pair, making price action highly reactive to today’s scheduled events.


Price Action:
On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the price has been fluctuating between Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish pressure. Recently, a bullish recovery has been observed as the GBP/USD price approaches a key resistance level. The market sentiment suggests buyers are attempting to push the price higher, though a strong breakout is required to confirm further upside momentum. Candlestick formations suggest increased volatility, with recent wicks showing both buying and selling pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price recently touched the upper Bollinger Band and pulled back slightly, suggesting resistance at this level. Currently, the price is once again moving closer to the upper band, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum. If the GBP USD price breaks above the band with high volume, it could signal an expansion in volatility and further upside movement.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots (aqua-colored) are positioned below the candles, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. The consecutive SAR dots below price action provide confirmation that buyers are in control. However, if the dots shift above the GBP-USD price, it may signal a reversal or a period of consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting continued upward pressure. However, the momentum appears moderate, meaning traders should monitor for any signs of divergence or a bearish crossover that could indicate a potential reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.2340, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong demand zone.
Resistance:The key resistance level is at 1.2490, where the price has faced rejection multiple times. A breakout above this level could open the door for further upside movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD H4 analysis suggests bullish momentum, supported by Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD indicators. However, resistance at 1.2490 remains a key hurdle for further price appreciation. With important UK and US economic data releases today, traders should expect increased volatility. A break above resistance could confirm further bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback towards key support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.13.2025