Forex Strategies

NZD/USD recently broke through the target level 0.8155 that was given for this currency pair in the following trade opportunity alert that I received last Monday. NZD/USD continued to fall sharply from the time this alert was generated by Autochartist, only correcting shortly up on Wednesday – before it fell sharply down below the target level 0.8155 on Friday. The pair is set to fall further in line with the next more recent alert that I received for NZD/USD.



As can be seen from the next, more recent, trade alert for NZD/USD, the pair recently broke the 4-hour key support level 0.8170 identified by Autochartist. The price earlier cut sharply down through the cluster of the upward-sloping support trendlines (as can be seen on the third chart below) – which should intensify the bearish pressure on the pair while it falls in the direction of the next target level 0.7995 in the next 14 trading days.



The daily NZD/USD chart below displays the aforementioned technical price levels:



More...

Dow Jones :
Resistance(daily close) : 14855.63, 15021.70, 15159.38 and 15404.28. Breaking of the latter would give 15643.13, 15845.63, 16022.80

More...

Week begins with a sharp decline in the silver. Silver has fallen sharply. Some call silver the high-beta gold trade and on the other front Market will be waiting for the Ben on Wednesday but we hope that market is read for some sharp correction in stocks and oil indices .Euro might consolidate between 12770 and 12970 for few sessions before clear Break out on either side we hope to see some up move before going lower.
Have a nice trading day ahead of you !
Cheers !
EUR/USD (last 1.2845)

Support:
1.2801 (S1)
1.2724 (S2)
1.2662 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.2944 (R1)
1.3036 (RR)
1.3115 (RRR)
RANGE – 13015---12807—12740
STRATEGY
Let the market move higher towards 13040 + area or break below 12740 area to go short and hold for some sharp correction
Trend
Bear Will prevail once break below 12740
Mid term Trade
Long @1.2647 Stop@ 1.2573 Tgt 13010
Short@1.3094 Stop@13149 tgt 1.2847 (parked)
Intraday
Trad#1 Long@12812 stop@127765 tgt 12977
Trade#2 Day trade short@1.3074 Stop@13108 tgt 12963
GBP USD (CABLE) (15190)
Support:
1.5120 (S1)
1.5055 (SS2)
1.4983 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1.5277 ®
1.5363 (Res)
15447 (**Major Resistance)
Range 15328---15107--15041
STRATEGY SOS (short on strength)
Trend Bias intra day bull till it reaches around 15370
Day Traders
PARKED ORDERS
Mid term
Mid term or for the week
Trade #1 Long@1.5056 stop@15012 tgt 15267
Trade #2 short@15470 stop@15527 tgt 15075
Intra day trade
Trade#1 Long@1.5045 stop@1.5012 tgt 15158
Trade#2 Short
(Plz note on all the intra day of not filled By the same Day till MOC then Cancel the Trade)
USD/JPY (Yen) (102.63)

Support:
10175 (S1)
10035 (S2)
99.50 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10336** (R1)
10452 (RR)
10445 (RRR3)
Range -10142----10393—9937
MID term
Long@94.45 stop@93.77 tgt 99.51.
Short term
Short@10388 add 10443 stop@ 10479 tgt 9988
June Swiss (10313)

Support:
10255 (S1)
10145 (SS2.)
10066 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
10384 (Res1)
10463 (RR2)
10548 (RES3)
Range of the day 10116----10346--10216
Strategy BoD buy on dips on dips as market is going higher in short term
long@10271 stop@10259 Tgt 10377
High Risk Day trades
Trade #1 Short@10428 stop@10458 tgt 10318
June Futures Cad $ (9714)

Flat
Support:
9672 (S1)
.9628 (Sup2.)
.9561 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9763 (R)
9817 (Res2)
10017 (Res3)
Range of the Day 9655---9928---9724
MID TERM TRADE
June future Short@10086 stop@10131 Tgt open
Trade #1 Intraday Short @10024 stop@10042 tgt 9914
Trade#2 long@ 9723 add 9702 stop@9688 tgt 9788 (filled and open)
Ausie $ June (9739)

Support:
.9670 (S1)
9620 (Sup2.)
9562 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
9843 (Res1)
9874 (Res2)
9917 (Res3)
Range for the Day -- 9866---9762---9684
Trend – Flat
MID Term
Short 10264 stop@103016 tgt 9856
Day trade
Trade#1 Short again@10158 stop@10187 tgt 9890 first
Trade#2 long@9712 add @9688 stop @9672 tgt 9877 (filled and open)
XAUUSD (GOLD) (1346)

Strategy SoS From 1435 ish area
Support:
1325.60 (S1)
1292.5 (S2)
1226 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1377.7 (Res1)
1406.7* (Res2)
1443.6*** (Res3)
Range of the Day 1361---1408- 1465
MiD Term
Short@1505 Stop@1528.75 Tgt 1265 (new parked order)
Long @1202.2 stop@1188. tgt 1415 (Parked and waiting)
Day Trade
Very RISKY stay on the side line
Short@14448 stop@1455 tgt 1398
#2 Short @1467 stop@1478 tgt 1382
#3 long@1226 stop@1215 tgt 1318 (New parked orders)
XAGUSD (SILVER May) (21.30)

Flat
Support:
20.25 (S1)
1908 (s2)
1840 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
2284 (Res)
2406 (RR)
2514 (Major resistance)
22.40---24.34—19.07
Strategy
MiD TERM
Wait for Long @19.02 stop@18.87 tgt 23.55
High risk day Trade
#1 Short@2415 Stop@2447 tgt 2255
# 2 short@2258 stop@2278 tgt 2062
June ES (MINI Sp500) (1662.5)

Strategy (Sos) Short on strength
Pattern
Tgt either 1655 or 1670 from where some correction is possible
Support:
1655 (S1)
1636. (s2)
1614 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
1666.7 (R)
1678 (Major resistance)
1692 **********
Range for the day
1636.0---1672---1612.
Strategy
Short@
Short@1658 add 1668 stop@ 1678 tgt 1636 (Filled and holding)
July oil (95.90)

Strategy

Support:
9480 (S1)
9328 (S2)
9240 (Major Sup)
Resistance:
96.68 (Res)
9755 (Res2)
9860 (Major resistance)
Range of the day 94.18---91.27—9778
Strategy
Mid Term
Long@85.88 stop@84.75 tgt 89.40 (parked)
High Risk Day Trade
Trade#1 Short@9768 Stop@ 9787 tgt 9468 (New Parked orders)
Trade#2 long@9248 stop@9205 tgt 9395
Ranges for the other market
DJ
Nq
Time line For short term cyclical projections
GMT
---GMT
For ---
---- is minor turn cycle for the day



More...

Market is trying to digest Japanese Economy Minister Amari’s words, who hit the wires stating that “yen strength has been largely corrected” at the beginning of the week. But with half local markets on holiday, volume remains shallow across the board, with majors mostly ranging. GBP/USD traded as high as 1.5217, finding resistance in the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run from 1.4830 to 1.5605 and currently retracing from the level, half way towards its daily low of 1.5157. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart show 20 SMA converging with the Fibonacci level reinforcing the resistance around 1.5210/20, while technical readings remain in negative territory, all of which suggest is not yet time to buy: price needs to overcome the resistance area and settle above to trigger an upward continuation rally, with scope then to extend towards 1.5260/1.5300 area.*On the other hand, a break below mentioned daily low should put the bears back in control, looking then for 1.5130, 61.8% retracement of the same rally.
View Live Chart for GBP/USD




More...

Our preferred trades in order of favorability –

With Equities Short

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Buy Dips

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Sell Tops

Buy Dips
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
6. EUR/NZD short	Sell Tops
7. AUD/CHF long	Buy Dips

For all other Exotics: higher risk (expect volatility/sluggishness)
Our preferred trades in order of favorability-*

With Equities Long

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Sell Tops

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips

Buy Dips
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
Sell Tops
6. EUR/NZD short	Sell Tops

For all other Exotics: higher risk (expect volatility/sluggishness)



More...

EURUSD: All Eyes On The 1.2750 Level And Below.

EURUSD - Having sold off for a second-week in a row, there is risk of further declines as we enter a new week . Support lies at the 1.2800 level and next the 1.2750/35 levels, its key support levels. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2600 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.3050 level where a violation if seen will aim at the 1.3150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3242 level. A cut through here will resume its medium term uptrend and call for a run at the 1.3300 level. A clearance of this level will pave the way for a run at the 1.3350 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its medium term downside bias.


More...

USD/CHF has formed a Rising Wedge pattern on the 4H chart. The pattern has 51% quality and 48% magnitude in the 120-bar period.
The pattern began on 10th of May when the pair peaked to 0.9628; at the moment it is at 0.9698. Trading volume seems to be holding at the same level in the length of the pattern. Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 4H and 1D horizon suggesting it should maintain bullish trend. Long traders could focus on the daily pivot (PP)/20-bar SMA at 0.9709/13, Bollinger band at 0.9742, pattern’s resistance/daily pivot (R1) at 0.9770/80 and daily pivots at 0.9833 (R2) and 0.9904 (R3).
Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair oh 1H horizon suggesting it should continue moving towards the pattern’s support. Short traders could focus on the Bollinger band at 0.9684, daily pivot (S1) at 0.9856, pattern’s support at 0.9834, daily pivot (S2)/200-bar SMA at 0.9585/69 and daily pivot (S3)/20-day SMA at 0.9532/494.

EUR/NZD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
Throughout the last 230 bars EUR/NZD has been trading strictly within the upward-sloping channel. However, it has just reached the upper edge of the pattern, meaning there is going to be a correction, presumably down to 1.5695 or 1.5658, before the bullish move is renewed. In the meantime, there is no one dominant view on further development of the pair among market participants, as the difference between the numbers of long and short positions is insignificant.

NZD/CAD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
Position of the currency pair on the chart, technical indicators and traders’ sentiment, all are suggesting that the New Zealand Dollar will not be able to overcome resistances at 0.8362 and 0.8383, but is on the verge of a decline. First of all, NZD/CAD had been in a down-trend for 136 hours and is facing the bearish resistance line. Secondly, 4H and daily indicators are showing strong ‘sell’ signals. And finally, an overwhelming majority (73%) of traders are holding short positions.

EUR/AUD 1H Chart

Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
While there appear to be almost no reasons to doubt bearishness of NZD/CAD (see previous slide), a situation with EUR/AUD is not as unambiguous. While formation of the channel up implies further appreciation of the Euro (also suggested by daily indicators), there are only few people (one out of four) supporting such a scenario.




More...

EURUSD once broke lower on Friday and hit 1.2800 level that we were focusing on already a week back. Now we can count five waves down in wave 3 from 1.3195 peak which means that bottom could be near. Notice that price also tested 200% extension level of wave 1 measured from wave 2 high which could also react as a support in wave 3. With that in mind, EURUSD could make a corrective bounce this week in wave 4, back to 1.2935 before new sell-off occurs. If 1.2800 is out then watch out for the next number at 1.2750. From a larger perspective EURUSD remains in downtrend mode as long as price trades beneath 1.3033 level, because that was wave 1 low, and we know that upcoming wave 4 must not trade into a territory of a wave 1 otherwise impulse wave count would become invalid.


EURUSD 4H Elliott Wave Analysis Chart



What is an Impulse?
Impulse is the most common motive wave and indicates a primary or current direction of a trend.



More...

GBP/NZD continues to decline toward the hourly Key Support Level 1.8514 (type Approach) identified by Autochartist– in line with the following trade alert that I received today for this currency pair via Autochartist’ email subscription. GBP/NZD earlier reversed down (at A) from the resistance zone consisting of the round resistance at 1.8800, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price thrust from the December of 2012 as well as the resistance trendline of the weekly Down Channel from May of 2012. GBP/NZD is set to reach the target level 1.8510 in the next 7 hours.



The daily GBP/NZD chart below highlights aforementioned resistance levels:



More...

Daily Forecast - 21 May 2013
Brent Crude July contract



Brent Crude did push on for 105.31 & made a high for a high for the day exactly here as predicted. We are overbought now & should see some profit taking after 4 days of gains but if we continue higher look for a retest of 105.95/106.05 May highs. This should hold again this week so we could exit longs & try shorts with stops above 106.50 for a test of March lows at 106.80.

Immediate support is at 104.40/30 so a break below here should trigger sell orders & keep the market under pressure for 103.85/75. This should hold the downside so worth profit taking on shorts, but a break lower should see 103.25 & possibly good support at 102.70/50.

April High

Feb Low

Jan Low

March Low

Last Week’s High

November Low

Aug Low

Last Week’s Low

April low

Nymex WTI Light Crude June contract



WTI Crude did keep up last week’s momentum for a test of May highs at 97.17 but we are overbought and failed here. We expect some profit taking now & perhaps a drift lower to 95.50. If we continue lower look for good support at 94.50/40 & a buying opportunity with stops below the 100 day moving average at 93.90.

Above 97.17 however we hit 3 month trend line resistance at 97.53 & April highs at 97.80. We should fail with in this 97.17/80 band but will need stops above this year’s high of 98.24.

January High

February High

April High

March High

Last week’s High

Feb Low

Last Week’s Low

March Low

April Low

More...