Forex Strategies

GBPUSD – The all-important 61.8% Fibonacci level (from 1.6381-1.4830) is located at 1.5789. Our medium term sell trigger was initiated at 1.5750 on Monday the 17th June and continued selling pressure resulted in GBPUSD trading to the lowest level in 12 days on Friday. Price action last week formed a bearish Outside bar and the bias remains negative. The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in GBPUSD posting little net change for the day yesterday. With the pair posting a higher low we cannot rule out a short 5th wave completion at 1.5342, Monday’s low trade. With this in mind we look for a temporary profit taking correction. The profit targets will be: 1.5476, 1.5495 and 1.5530 (AB=CD).Support levels are: 1.5400, 1.5350 and 1.5262.




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USD/CAD continues to advance inside the Flag chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the hourly charts – as can be seen from the following trade alert that I received today for this pair. USD/CAD is set to reach the target level 1.0524 in 15 hours (point B, the last reversal point of the upper trendline of this Flag). Autochartist sets the stop-loss at 1.0453 (point A). This point was formed earlier when USD/CAD corrected up from the former weekly resistance level 1.0450 (it stopped and reversed the sharp weekly upward impulse in June of 2012) – acting as support now – after it was broken by the previous upward price thrust, which is the “flag-pole” of this Flag.



The weekly USD/CAD chart below demonstrates the previous price action close to major price level 1.0450:





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XAU/USD 1H chart 6/26/2013 7:30AM ET

Breakout: Gold prices consolidated a bit above the 1269 handle, but positive US helped strengthen USD, and XAU/USD slid below this consolidation support during the 6/26 Asian session. Price has gotten to some consolidation breakout projection using the width of the consolidation range. The RSI in the 1H chart has dipped below 30, showing persistent bearish momentum, but perhaps some near-term oversold condition.
A pullback should first be challenged around 1255, near an overnight high. The previous support around 1269 should also provide resistance against a pullback if the market is still bearish. To the downside, look for some psychological support around the 1200 handle. The next support pivot is down at 1166 down to 1157, the May and July 2010 lows.
XAG/USD 1H chart 6/26/2013 7:35AM ET

New Low: Silver also fell, breaking a consolidation support around 19.37. The 1H XAG/USD chart shows price already achieving a breakout projection. Like gold, the 1H RSI reflects persistent bearish momentum, but may indicate some near-term oversold condition at the start of the 6/26 US session.
There is an overnight high at 109.06 that can provide near-term resistance. The 19.37-19.40 area might also be considered a support turned resistance against a pullback if silver remains bearish. The next support is seen at 17.32, around the 2010 July and August lows


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EUR/USD 1H chart 6/26/2013 7:02AM ET

Consolidation: The EUR/USD was consolidating this week between 1.3057 and 1.3150. The market was bearish again after yesterday’s positive US data, but did not break the 1.3057 until the 6/26 European session. As we begin the US session, price is nearing the 1.30 handle. We might get some support here at the psychological level, but the breakout suggests about 95 pips in the direction of the breakout, which projects to about 1.2970.
Support: The 4H chart shows the market cracking the 61.8% retracement at 1.3032. Below 1.30, we are getting close to some support factors that can challenge the current decline. 1.2955 is a support pivot and is near a projected rising support that is parallel to a rising resistance line. 1.2955 should probably be the limit to the current bearish outlook.
If 1.2950 and the TL break down, the 1.2795 May low, and the 1.2744, 2013-low are in sight.
EUR/USD 4H chart 6/26/2013 7:08AM ET



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USDCHF - When we break the last move down into shorter timeframes we can see stalling close to .9190, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension level. In the short term, we look to a move back towards .9419, channel top. Buying pressure has seen USDCHF breaking through the daily channel formation to the upside yesterday but gains are being reversed. However, we have yet to post a lower low of high so will look to buy into dips today. The profit targets will be: .9415, .9440 and .9484.

Support levels are: .9387, .9377 and .9345.




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GBP/CAD is falling sharply after reversing down from the upper trendline of the Up Channel identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts – as can be seen from the following trade opportunity alert that I received today for this pair. GBP/CAD is set to reach the target level 1.5882 in 3 trading days. Autochartist set the stop-level for this forecast at 1.6260 (point B, the top of this chart pattern). Point B was formed earlier – when GBP/CAD reversed strongly down with the daily Japanese Candlestick reversal pattern – the Evening Doji Star – from the resistance area surrounding the major resistance level 1.6200 (which reversed the pair sharply down in January, as can be seen on the second chart below).



The daily GBP/CAD chart below demonstrates the previous price action near the major resistance level 1.6200:





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EUR/GBP 4H chart 7:30AM ET 6/27/2013



Triangle: The EUR/GBP has been elbowing its way out of a triangle, but remains in a sideways, consolidation mode. This week, it broke below the triangle support, but bounced off the previous support in the 0.8465-0.8475 area. Now, it is in a pivot area roughly between 0.8530-0.8540. A break above 0.8540 might put the focus back to the 0.8590-0.86 area.

Range, breakout scenarios: The daily chart shows the EUR/GBP ranging within a larger range roughly between 0.84 and 0.8635. A break above 0.8640 opens up the 0.8790-0.8814 highs. Note that price is still trading above the 200-day SMA and the bullish outlook has the prevailing trend on its back.

A break below 0.84 will clear some key factors including the 200-day SMA. A breakdown opens up about 135 pips lower, between the 50% retracement of 0.8282 and 61.8% retracement at 0.8157.

EUR/GBP Day chart 7:40AM ET 6/27/2013




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EUR/CHF 4H chart 6/26/2013 7:05AM ET



Falling channel to range: After hitting a high for year at 1.2648, EUR/CHF retreated and was trading in a falling channel for a month since mid-May. As we wind down June, the 4h EUR/CHF chart shows a market that has shifted to a sideways range and has anchored out of the falling channel. The resistance of the range is at 1.2363, while support is at 1.2218. There is also a central pivot around 1.2295. If the market holds above 1.2295, the focus is on the range resistance.

Inverse head and shoulders, momentum, RSI: The RSI reading has been held under 60 since the mark bearish market started in May. However, as the EUR/CHF rallies from a completed inverse head and shoulders, the RSI has popped up above 60, signaling loss of bearish momentum.

Breakout targets: If price extends above 1.2363, it can open up another 145 pips, projecting to just above 1.25.A break below 1.2218 has a similar projection down to 1.2063, or even a support pivot around 1.2035. The daily chart shows that a break to the downside can really take out major support factors in the 200-day SMA and a rising trendline. Note that the 200-day SMA has been treated as support since Sept. 2012.

EUR/CHF Daily chart 6/26/2013 7:15AM ET




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EURJPY – Although a reaction (lower) was posted from the intraday channel top, the selloff was short-lived resulting in a positive daily performance for EURJPY. Continued buying has been posted overnight and the corrective channel is now clearly broken. Although intraday signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes, any profit taking correction should find buyers. Our call is Buy 1 unit at the 7am open with a stop at 128.70. The target is 129.80 (where we expect some resistance and will look to re-enter on a pullback).

Support levels are: 128.70, 128.57 and 128.07.
Resistance levels are: 128.70, 131.00 and 131.58 (measured move).




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This technical analysis report is based upon a trade opportunity taken from Autochartist’s Market Reports.
NZD/JPY recently broke the hourly Key Resistance Level 76.68 identified by Autochartist– as you can see from the following trade opportunity alert that I received recently for this currency pair. NZD/JPY is expected to reach the target level 77.80 in the following 2 trading days. The stop-level for this bullish forecast is set by Autochartist at 74.47. This level is located below the strong support level 75.00, which has been steadily reversing up all downward impulses of this pair in last two weeks. The strength of the support at 75.00 coupled with the Volatility Analysis show below – heighten the probability NZD/JPY will rise to target level 77.80 in 2 trading days.



As can be seen from the following Volatility Analysis chart, the upper border of the daily Expected Price Range calculated by Autochartist for NZD/JPY (77.76) nearly coincides with the target level set in the above trade alert (77.80) – which adds to the likelihood NZD/JPY will continue to rise toward 77.80 tomorrow.





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