How To Trade

51. Maximize Trading Profits with Correct Position Sizing 2

In today's lesson we are going to talk about another method which Dr. Van K Tharp talks about in his book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, the % Volatility Model for position sizing.

As we have discussed in our previous lesson on the Average True Range, Volatility is basically how much the price of a financial instrument fluctuates over a given time period. Just as the Average True Range, the indicator that was designed to represent average volatility in an instrument over a specified time, can be referenced when determining where to place your stop, it can also be used to determine how large or small a position you should trade in a given financial instrument.

To help understand how this works lets take another look at the example we used in our last lesson on the % Risk Model for position sizing, but this time determine our position size using the % Volatility Model for position sizing.

The first step in determining what your position size will be using the % Volatility Model is specifying what % of your total trading equity you will allow the volatility as represented by the ATR to represent. For this example we will say that we will allow Daily Volatility as represented by the ATR to account for a maximum of a 2% loss of trading capital.

If you remember from the example used in our last lesson we had $100,000 in trading capital and we are looking to sell crude oil which in that example was trading at $90 a barrel. After pulling up a chart of crude oil and adding the ATR you see that the current ATR for Crude is $2.55. As you may also remember from our last lesson a 1 point or 1 cent move in Crude equals $10 per contract. So with this in mind that volatility in dollars per contract for crude equals $10X255 which is $2550.

So as 2% of our trading capital that we are willing to risk on a volatility basis equals $2000 under this model we cannot put a position on in this instance and would have to pass up the trade.

As Dr. Van Tharp states in his book, the advantage of this model is that it standardizes the performance of a portfolio by volatility or in other words does not allow financial instruments with a higher volatility to have a greater affect on performance than financial instruments with a lower volatility and vice versa.

52. Fundamental Analysis and The US Economy

A lesson on the basics of fundamental analysis, the top down and bottom up, and the US Economy for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.

there are two ways that traders analyze the markets which are known as technical analysis and fundamental analysis. As I also mentioned in that lesson while most people who buy and sell over the short term focus on technical analysis and most people who buy and sell over the long term focus on fundamental analysis, in my opinion both technical traders, fundamental traders, and investors can all benefit from at least having an understanding of both types of analysis even if they prefer one or the other as their primary tool they use to make their trading decisions.

While technical analysis focuses solely on the analysis of historical price action, fundamental analysis focuses on everything else including things such as the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, currency or commodity using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use which are known as bottom up analysis and top down analysis. Bottom up analysis very simply means looking at the details such, as earnings if we are talking about a stock, first and then working one's way up to the larger picture by looking at things such as the industry of the company who's stock you are trading and then finally the overall economic picture. Top down analysis on the other hand means looking at the big picture things such as the economy first and then working one's way down to the details such as earnings if we are talking about a stock.

While there is some debate about which method is best my personal preference is for Top Down analysis and since by starting this way we can start with the things that apply to all markets and not just the stock market this is how we will start.

The first thing that it is important to understand from a fundamental standpoint is what the economic situation is as it affects the financial instrument you are trading. As I am based in the US and the US is the World's largest economy this is what I am going to talk about, however most of the things I discuss here apply in a broad sense to any economy. When we begin to discuss the foreign exchange market in later lessons we will go into specific details of the other major and emerging market economies from around the world.

According to Investopedia.com the definition of an Economy is "the large set of inter-related economic production and consumption activities which aid in determining how scarce resources are allocated. The economy encompasses everything relating to the production and consumption of goods and services in an area"

People often refer to the US Economy as a capitalist or free market economy. A capitalist or free market economy in its most basic sense is one in which the production and distribution of goods and services is done primarily by private (non government) companies and the price for those goods is set by the free market. This is in contrast to a socialist or planned economy where production and distribution of goods and services as well as the pricing of those goods and services is handled by the government.

53. A Simple Explanation of the US Economy for Trade

An overview of the US Economy and the first two components of the economy which are natural resources and the labor force. Explanation meant for traders of the forex, futures, and stock markets.

In our last lesson we gave an introduction to fundamental analysis with an introduction to the top down approach to analyzing fundamentals and the US Economy. In today's lesson we are going to expand our discussion on the US economy by looking at the different pieces which make up the economy and how each piece is relevant to us as traders of the stock, futures, and/or forex markets.

The first component of any economy is its natural resources. One of the key factors that allowed the United States to grow so quickly and become one of the world powers that it is today, is that it is a land that is rich in natural resources from oil which drives our industry, to lumber to build our houses, to our large coastlines, great lakes, and rivers which provide shipping access and move goods throughout the country.

Understanding what natural resources are most important to a country and understanding what affects the prices of those resources is beneficial to not only commodities traders who trade the actual commodities such as oil and gold but also to traders of the stock and forex markets. We will go into these correlations in more detail in later lessons but a short example is that the US economy relies heavily on oil, so when the price of oil goes higher this is normally seen as a negative for the US Economy as it then costs more for companies to ship their goods, and for individuals to fill up their cars leaving them less money to spend. Similarly, as the US Imports much of its oil, when the price of oil goes up this means that more dollars are being sold and converted into the currencies of the countries which are exporting the oil to the US, therefore all else being equal weakening the US Dollar and strengthening the currency of the exporting country.

The next component of any economy is its labor force, or the individuals who are working in that economy to produce goods and services from the countries natural resources. As the labor force in an economy gets paid for their labor, and then spends that money on the goods and services they and other components of the labor force have produced, they are an important driver of growth in any economy.

The components which are watched in regards to labor are the size of the labor force in an economy, its rate of growth, its productivity level, and its skill level, and its mobility or ability to adapt to changing conditions. Another reason why the United States has the largest economy in the world is the size of its labor force is constantly growing allowing the economy to produce and sell more goods and services, it is a relatively mobile labor force which has allowed it to increase productivity faster than other nations through things such as early adoption of new technology, and it is an educated labor force.

Why is this important from a trading standpoint? Here again we will go into more detail on this when we look at important economic numbers but a short example is if the labor force becomes more productive, this means that they are able to produce more goods in the same amount of time. This not only makes companies more profitable but it holds down prices for the consumer, giving them more money to spend on other goods and services, which drives growth, which means a higher stock market all else being equal. This increased growth can cause higher demand for commodities therefore causing the commodities markets to rally all else being equal, and can also have interest rate implications, something we will learn about in later lessons, which can affect the US Dollar.

54. Simple Explanation of The US Economy For Traders Part 2

A lesson on the second two components of the US Economy the Private and Government Sector and how these each affect forex, futures, and stock traders.

In our last lesson we began a discussion on the different components that make up the US Economy and how these relate to trading with a look at the Natural Resources and Labor Force components. In today's lesson we continue this discussion with a look at the Private Sector and Government components and how each of these relates to trading.

While having lots of natural resources and a large well educated labor force to produce goods and services from those natural resources is a great thing, without a way to organize these first two components of the economy, not much would get done. This is where the small, medium, and large businesses which make up the private sector come in. In addition to organizing the labor force to produce goods and services, the private sector is also responsible for raising the capital necessary to bring all these things together which they do through private investors, loans from commercial banks, the bond market, and/or the equities market.

While many people think that the US Economy is dominated by the large corporations, it may come as a surprise the large role that the small business play's in the US Economy. According to the US Department of State:

"Of the nearly 26 million firms in the United States, most are very small—97.5 percent ... have fewer than 20 employees," the U.S. Small Business Administration says. "Yet cumulatively, these firms account for half of our nonfarm real gross domestic product, and they have generated 60 to 80 percent of the net new jobs over the past decade."

While we will go into more details about the private sector and how this all relates to trading in later lessons, it should be obvious at this point the large effect that the private sector has on all markets as they are the ones who: 1. Raise capital through bonds and stocks that we then trade, 2. produce the goods and services which drive demand for the commodities we trade and 3. Affect the foreign Exchange markets by playing a role in what goods and services are produced domestically, which we import from overseas, as well as cross boarder mergers and acquisitions.

55. The Business Cycle and Fiscal Policy - What Traders Know

A lesson on the business cycle and how the government uses fiscal policy to try and keep growth going and inflation in check and what this means for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.

Fiscal policy can be defined for our purposes very simply as anything relating to government spending and taxation. Before looking at the fiscal policy role of government in trying to influence the economy, one must first have an understanding of the business cycle. For a number of reasons which are widely debated the economy goes through repeated periods of growth and contraction over time which can be broken down into the following phases.

1. A Contraction where economic activity and growth slows and can turn negative
2. Trough where the economy stops contracting and a new expansion begins
3. An Expansion or the speeding up of economic growth.
4. A Peak where the growth of the economy maxes out and begins to turn downward

We could spend many months going over and debating why this is but for our purposes it is simply important to understand that, while the timing and length of each of these phases has varied widely, the above pattern repeats itself over and over again throughout history. This is important for us as traders to understand as different phases of the business cycle and changes in peoples forecasts of where the economy is in those cycles is arguably the greatest factor which effects the price level of every market.

Prior to the great depression the US Government had a pretty hands off approach in regards to the business cycle. Since the great depression however the government has played a much more active role in the economy with its stated goals being to act to facilitate full employment and price stability. To help understand these goals and the balancing act that goes on between them as they often conflict, lets look at how each relates to the different phases of the business cycle.

56. How Interest Rates Move Markets

An introduction to interest rates, what they are composed of and their extreme importance in the stock, futures, and forex markets.

57. What Traders Know About Interest Rates Part 2

The second lesson of two on interest rates, why they are so important to the stock market and to traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets with an introduction to the Federal Reserve.

In previous lesson we began our discussion on Monetary Policy with a look at one of its primary components, interest rates. In today's lesson we are going to continue this discussion with another look at how interest rates affect the economy and therefore the markets, and by introducing the institution which implements Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve.

As we saw in our example yesterday, small movements in interest rates can have dramatic effects on the economy. Just as small changes in interest rates can dramatically increase the costs for individuals to own a home or borrow money to purchase other goods, they can also have a dramatic affect on the cost of doing business.

It is for this reason that when interest rates rise, making borrowed money more costly, that people will also be less likely to start or expand a business. This not only has an effect on the business owner themselves but filters throughout the entire economy as less businesses being started and expanded means less jobs, which means less people getting paychecks, which means less people spending money and on and on down the line. The opposite is of course also true for when interest rates fall and business owners take advantage of access to cheaper borrowed money.

In addition to interest rates affecting the stock market, interest rates also have direct and indirect affects on the bond, foreign exchange, and futures markets. Here are a couple of quick examples of this which we will expand on in later lessons:

The Bond Market: When interest rates rise the value of existing bonds fall as investors can now purchase the same bond with a higher interest rate and vice versa.

The Forex Market: When Interest rates it becomes more attractive from a yield standpoint to own the dollar against other currencies or to invest in interest bearing dollar based assets. This creates a demand for dollars which will many times cause the dollar to strengthen. The reverse is also true when interest rates fall.

The Commodities Market: When economies grow at a greater rate as a result of lower interest rates this will mean a greater demand for commodities so their value will rise and vice versa.

58. What Traders Need to Know About The Structure of The Fed

A lesson on the structure of the Federal reserve for traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets.

In our last lesson we finalized our discussion on the importance of interest rates and introduced the Federal Reserve. In today's lesson we're going to continue our discussion on the Federal Reserve by looking at the parts of the Fed which are relevant to us as traders so we can begin to understand how this one institution is able to create drastic moves in the markets.

The Federal Reserve has many responsibilities which include regulating banking activity, playing a major role in operating the nation's payments system, and maintaining the stability of the financial system. The role that is most important to us as traders and therefore the role in which we will concentrate on in our lessons, is its role in conducting the nation's monetary policy.

***As a side note here the Federal Reserve is also the Central Bank of the United States. I say this here because most countries have something which operates in much the same way as the Fed which is many times referred to in other countries as the Central Bank. While these institutions may be structured differently from the Fed, from a broad perspective many of the things you learn in our lessons on monetary policy will apply to any central bank.

While the Fed's objectives are set by law, its day to day activities are not subject to government approval. This is an important point to understand as it means that unlike Fiscal Policy, which must be approved by both Congress and the President, monetary policy can be enacted as the Fed pleases. This gives the Fed much more control over the economy at least in the short term, and is the reason why some people consider the chairman of the Federal Reserve to be more powerful than even the President.

There are many interesting details about The Fed and its structure that I encourage everyone to explore, however the primary components which move markets, and are therefore the ones that we will focus on, are:

1. The Board of Governors: Located in Washington DC the Board of Governors is at the top of The Fed's food chain. It is made up of 7 members who are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. To help keep The Fed from being influenced by political factors, 5 of the Fed Governors are appointed to staggered 14 Year terms. The Chairman and the Vice Chairman are appointed to 4 year terms and can be reappointed should the President wish to have them.

2. The Regional Federal Reserve Banks: This is a network which includes the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and 25 Branches. As most of you already know, different areas of the United States are comprised of different industries. As an example the New York area economy is influenced heavily by what is going on in financial services, while the San Francisco area economy is influenced heavily by what is happening in the technology sector. As this is the case, each of the regional banks are strategically located throughout the country so that the can stay abreast of current economic conditions in each area.

59. How the Fed Changes Interest Rates

A lesson on open market operations and how the federal reserve increases and decreases the money supply in order to move interest rates and what this means for traders of the stock, futures, and foreign exchange markets.

In our last lesson we looked at the structure of the Federal Reserve and the components of the FOMC, the portion responsible for implementing Monetary Policy. Now that we have an understanding of this, we can look further into exactly how monetary policy is facilitated and what happens to markets under differing scenarios.

Monetary Policy very simply is anything which relates to action by the Federal Reserve to influence the amount of money and credit available in the economy. To understand exactly what this means, one first must understand the concept of fiat monetary systems.

Fiat Monetary Systems: The United States, like most major economies, has what is known as a fiat monetary system. A Fiat Monetary system very simply is any system which uses a monetary unit (in this case the US Dollar) which is not convertible to some commodity, in general a precious metal such as gold.

Fiat money, is money that is backed by the credit of some entity, normally a government, and the value for which is derived from its relative scarcity and the faith placed in it by the population which uses it.

This is important to us as traders because the fact that the Dollar is not convertible to a commodity such as gold gives the Federal Reserve the ability to increase or decrease the money supply as it sees fit, or in other words to enact Monetary Policy.

With this in mind the 3 tools available to the Fed for enacting monetary policy are:

• Open Market Operations
• The Discount Rate
• Reserve Requirements

The most common tool that the Fed uses, and therefore the one that we will cover, is Open Market Operations. Once we have an understanding of this and how increases or decreases in the supply of money affect demand and prices, the other two less commonly used tools will be more easily understood.

Through something which is known as the Open Market Committee, the Fed increases and decreases the supply of money by buying and selling US Government securities.

When The Fed wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities using money that was not available in circulation before they made their purchase. As with anything, when additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, price normally falls. In this case the price that we are referring to is the cost of borrowing money or interest rates.

Conversely, when the fed wishes to increase interest rates they will instruct the open market committee to sell government securities thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply.

Pin Bar Forex Trading Strategy | Pin Bar Definition

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An Introduction To The Pin Bar Forex Trading Strategy and How to Trade It Effectively…




The pin bar formation is a price action reversal pattern that shows that a certain level or price point in the market was rejected. Once familiarized with the pin bar formation, it is apparent from looking at any price chart just how profitable this pattern can be. Let’s go over exactly what a pin bar formation is and how you can take advantage of the pin bar strategy in the context of varying market conditions.

What is a Pin Bar?

The actual pin bar itself is a bar with a long upper or lower “tail”, “wick” or “shadow” and a much smaller “body” or “real body”, you can find pin bars on any stripped-down, “naked” bar chart or candlestick chart. We use candlestick charts because they show the price action the clearest and are the most popular charts amongst professional traders. Many traders prefer the candlestick version over standard bar charts because it is generally regarded as a better visual representation of price action.

Characteristics of the Pin Bar Formation

• The pin bar should have a long upper or lower tail…the tail is also sometimes called the “wick” or the “shadow”…they all mean the same thing. It’s the “pointy” part of the pin bar that literally looks like a “tail” and that shows rejection or false break of a level.

• The area between the open and close of the pin bar is called the “body” or “real body”. It is typically colored white or another light color when the close was higher than than the open and black or another dark color when the close was lower than the open.

• The open and close of the pin bar should be very close together or equal (same price), the closer the better.

• The open and close of the pin bar are near one end of the bar, the closer to the end the better.

• The shadow or tail of the pin bar sticks out (protrudes) from the surrounding price bars, the longer the tail of the pin bar the better.

• A general “rule of thumb” is that you want to see the pin bar tail be two/thirds the total pin bar length or more and the rest of the pin bar should be one/third the total pin bar length or less.

• The end opposite the tail is sometimes referred to as the “nose”



Bullish Reversal Pin Bar Formation

In a bullish pin bar reversal setup, the pin bar’s tail points down because it shows rejection of lower prices or a level of support. This setup very often leads to a rise in price.

Bearish Reversal Pin Bar Formation

In a bearish pin bar reversal setup, the pin bar’s tail points up because it shows rejection of higher prices or a level of resistance. This setup very often leads to a drop in price.



Examples of the Pin Bar Formation in Action

Here is a daily chart of CAD/JPY, we can see numerous pin bar formations that were very well defined and worked out very nicely. Note how all the pin bar’s tails clearly protruded from the surrounding price action, showing a defined “rejection” of lower prices. All of the pin bars below have something in common that we just discussed, can you guess what it is?



If you said that all the pin bars in the above chart are “bullish pin bar setups”, then you answered the question right. Good job!

In the following daily USD/JPY chart we can see an ideal pin bar formation that resulted in a serious move and trend reversal. Sometimes pin bars like this form at significant market turning points and change the trend very quickly, like we see below. The example in the chart below is also sometimes called a “V bottom reversal”, because the reversal is so sharp it literally looks a V…



Here is an example of a trending market that formed numerous profitable pin bar setups. The following daily chart of GBP/JPY shows that pin bars taken with the dominant trend can be very accurate. Note the two pin bars on the far left of the chart that marked the start of the uptrend and then as the trend progressed we had numerous high-probability opportunities to buy into it from the bullish pin bars shown below that were in-line with the uptrend.



How to Trade a Pin Bar Formation

The pin bar formation is a reversal setup, and we have a few different entry possibilities for it:

“At market entry” – This means you place a “market” order which gets filled immediately after you place it, at the best “market price”. A bullish pin would get a “buy market” order and a bearish pin a “sell market” order.

“On stop entry” – This means you place a stop entry at the level you want to enter the market. The market needs to move up into your buy stop or down into your sell stop to trigger it. It’s important to note that a sell stop order must be under the current market price, including the spread, and a buy stop order must be above the current market price, including the spread. If you need more help on these “jargon” words checkout my free beginners forex course for more. On a bullish pin bar formation, we will typically buy on a break of the high of the pin bar and set our stop loss 1 pip below the low of the tail of the pin bar. On a bearish pin bar formation, we will typically sell on a break of the low of the pin bar and place a stop loss 1 pip above the tail of the pin bar. There are other stop loss placements for my various setups taught in my advanced price action course.

“Limit entry” – This entry must be placed above the current market price for a sell and below the current market price for a buy. The basic idea is that some pin bars will retrace to around 50% of the tail, so we can look to enter there with a limit order. This provides a tight stop loss with our stop loss just above or below the pin bar high or low and a large potential
risk reward on the trade as a result.



To effectively trade the pin bar formation you need to first make sure it is well-defined, (see pin bar characteristics listed at the top of this tutorial). Not all pin bar formations are created equal; it pays to only take the pin bar formations that meet the above characteristics.

Next, try to only take take pin bars that are displaying confluence with another factor. Generally, pin bars taken with the dominant daily chart trend are the most accurate. However, there are many profitable pin bars that often occur in range-bound markets or at major market turning points as well. Examples of “factors of confluence” include but are not limited to: strong support and resistance levels, Fibonacci 50% retracement levels, or moving averages.

Pin bar in range-bound market and at important market turning point (trend change):

In the chart example below, we can see a bearish pin bar sell signal that formed at a key level of resistance in the EURUSD. This was a good pin bar because it’s tail was clearly protruding up through the key resistance and from the surrounding price action, indicating that a strong rejection as well as false-break of an important resistance had taken place. Thus, there was a high probability of a move lower after that pin bar. Note the 50% limit sell entry that presented itself as the next bar retraced to about 50% of the pin bar’s length before the market fell significantly lower…



Pin bar in-line with trend with multiple factors of confluence:

In the chart example below, we are looking at a bearish pin bar sell signal that formed in the context of a down-trending market and from a confluent area in the market. The confluence between the 8 / 21 dynamic EMA resistance layer, the horizontal resistance at 1.3200 and the downtrend, gave a lot of “weight” to the pin bar signal. When we get a well-defined pin bar like this, that has formed at a confluent area or level in the market like this, it’s a very high-probability setup…



Other names you might find pin bars described by:



There are several different names used in ‘classic’ Japanese candlestick patterns that refer to what are basically all pin bars, the terminology is just a little different. The following all qualify as pin bars and can be traded as I’ve described above:

• A bearish reversal or top reversal pin bar formation can be called a “long wicked inverted hammer”, “long wicked doji”, “long wicked gravestone”, or “shooting star”.

• A bullish reversal or bottom reversal pin bar formation can be called a “long wicked hammer”, “long wicked doji”, or “long wicked dragonfly”.

In Summary

The pin bar formation is a very valuable tool in your arsenal of Forex price action trading strategies. The best pin bar strategies occur with a confluence of signals such as support and resistance levels, dominant trend confirmation, or other ‘confirming’ factors. Look for well formed pin bar setups that meet all the characteristics listed in this tutorial and don’t take any that you don’t feel particularly confident about.

Pin bars work on all time frames but are especially powerful on the 1 hour, 4hour and daily chart time frames. It is possible to make consistent profits by only trading the pin bar formation, and you can learn more about it in my price action trading course. Upon adding this powerful setup as one of your main Forex trading strategies, you will wonder how you ever traded without it.