Weekly Outlook: 2014, October 05 - October 12

EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 6 - 10

The euro fell to more than two-year lows against the dollar on Friday after an upbeat U.S. jobs report boosted expectations for an early interest rate hike, while weak euro zone data added to concerns over the economic outlook for the region.

EUR/USD was down 1.22% to 1.2514, the weakest level since August 2012 in late trade. For the week, the pair dropped 1.26%.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 248,000 jobs in September, well ahead of forecasts for jobs growth of 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008.

The upbeat jobs report was tempered by slow growth in wages. Average hourly earnings rose by 2.0% year-over-year, slowing slightly from August.

Despite this, the employment data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner. The central bank is on track to end its asset purchase program later this month.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 1.23% to 86.79 in late trade, a high last seen in June 2010, capping its twelfth consecutive weekly gain. The twelve-week rally is the longest since the index was created in 1971.

Sentiment on the single currency was hit after data released earlier on Friday showed that the bloc’s service sector slowed more sharply than initially estimated in September, fuelling fears that the economy is losing momentum.

Research firm Markit revised its composite purchasing managers’ index, a measure of activity in the currency bloc’s manufacturing and services sectors, down to 52.0 from 52.5 in August, and below an initial estimate of 52.3.

A separate report did show that euro zone retail sales rose by 1.2% in August from a month earlier.

The European Central Bank refrained from implementing additional stimulus measures at its meeting on Thursday, despite euro area inflation slowing to a five year low last month, indicating that it will wait to see the effects of recent stimulus measures on the region’s economy.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the governing council remained “unanimous in its commitment” to taking more action should the inflation outlook deteriorate, leaving the way clear for quantitative easing.

Elsewhere, the euro was little changed against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY at 137.38, holding above Thursday’s almost one month lows of 136.85.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further indications on the future possible direction of U.S. monetary policy.

A speech by Mario Draghi in Washington on Thursday will also be in focus.

Monday, October 6

• In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on factory orders.

Wednesday, October 8

• In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

Thursday, October 9

• The U.S. is to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims.
• Later Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Washington; his comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 10

• In the euro area, France is to produce data on industrial production.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with data on import prices.

Gross domestic product is considered the broadest measure of a nation's economy, and it represents the all-out market estimation everything being equal and administrations created in a nation during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is frequently considered a slacking indicator, most traders center around the two reports that are given in the months before the last GDP figures: the development report and the preliminary report. Critical revisions between these reports can cause impressive unpredictability. The GDP is to some degree closely resembling the gross overall revenue of a traded on an open market organization in that they are the two measures of inner development.