Weekly Outlook: 2014, July 13 - 20

NASDAQ forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see fell during the course of the week, testing the 4350 level, but finding support there. The area was previously resistive, and the fact that it acted as resistance doesn’t surprises because of that. The resulting candle is a hammer as you can see, but we need to get above the 4500 level in order to be comfortable buying for the longer term. Once that happens, the market should continue to go to the 5000 level, which is a longer-term target for us going forward.

S&P 500 forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 did in fact fall during the course of the week, but found enough support near the 1950 level to turn things back around and form a hammer the looks a bit like a hammer. Because of this, if we can finally break above 2000, we would be buyers and expect to see this market to go much higher. Ultimately, we think that will happen, but being patient will be necessary in order to take advantage of this move. Alternately, a pullback could happen and that of course could be a nice buying opportunity.

Dow Jones 30 forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 as you can see fell during the bulk of the week, but did find a little bit of support at the 16,800 level in order to form a slightly supportive looking candle. It’s not quite a hammer, but close enough in our opinion. We believe that a break the top of the candle is in fact a reason to start buying, and that’s exactly what we will do. At that point in time, we would expect this market to go to the 20,000 level.

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index initially tried to fall during most of the week, but found the 80 handle to be supportive enough to turn things back around and form a hammer for the second week in a row. Because of this, we believe that the 80 level is going to continue to be supportive, but we also see a significant amount of resistance at the 81 handle. With that in mind, we don’t necessarily see long-term traded to we break to the upside and above the 81.50 handle, which would have this market looking for 84.50 or so over the longer term.

Silver forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The silver markets initially fell during the week, but found the $21.40 level to be supportive enough to turn things back around and form a hammer. We believe that the market will ultimately break above the $22 level, and if we get above there we go all the way to the $25 handle. That area should be massively resistant though, because there is a gap have that region. We do believe that we will test the $25 level, but breaking above there is in fact going to be very difficult. Once we do though, this market would suddenly become a “buy-and-hold” type of market.

USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the bulk of the week, testing the 101 level yet again. This level has been supportive for quite some time though, essentially the entirety of the year 2014. With that being the case, the market could bounce from here and that’s essentially what we expect. However, there really isn’t anything in the way of a long-term signal as far as we can see, but we certainly wouldn’t short this market. We think short-term traders will continue to move this market, thereby leaving it difficult for longer-term traders to be bothered with.

USD/CAD forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD pair bounced hard off of a trend line during the week, especially perpetuated by the move on Friday. The Friday move of course was brought on by an extremely horrible Canadian employment announcement. Because of this, it appears of the Canadian dollar will continue to get beat up, and the fact that we have found support at the uptrend line certainly is no coincidence in our opinion, and its reason enough to start buying. The 1.06 level below is massively supportive as well, so we had at least two good reasons the think about going higher.

The 1.08 level above will be resistance, as we should continue to try and press against the selling pressure. A move above the 1.08 level should in fact continue the bullish momentum that we would have in the market, and should send this market looking for the 1.10 level, the next natural resistance barrier based upon the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number.

We think that the market is still intact overall, and that the bullish momentum should continue but recognize that this market is one that has been very choppy from time to time, followed by impulsive moves. We believe that buying a break of the top of the range is the way to go going forward, or looking at the short-term charts for supportive candles below in order to continue to go long.

On the other hand though, if we do manage break down below the 1.06 handle, this market will more than likely fall to the 1.03 level first, and then all the way down to the parity level, and Heather area that was extraordinarily magnetic on a longer-term chart. However, the selling of this market seems to be the least likely thing to happen and as a result the market is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment, and as a result we are looking for the aforementioned buying opportunities.

NZD/USD forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair broke above the 0.88 level during the previous week, suggesting that a break out was in the process of happening. If we can break above the top of the range for the week, we believe that this market will continue to head towards the 0.90 level. That level is the next resistance barrier that we can see on the longer-term charts, so therefore that’s where the market should head towards. We see a significant amount of support below as well, so really it’s not likely we find an opportunity to sell.

GBP/USD forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fell during the bulk of the week, but did get a little bit of a bounce towards the end of the 1.71 level. That being the case, it appears that the market is still ready to continue going higher, and we believe that the 1.70 level will continue to be a bit of a “floor” in this market. Ultimately, we suspect of this pair goes to the 1.75 handle, and see nothing on this chart the changes our opinion about that. Pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities.

EUR/USD forecast for the week of July 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see gave back quite a bit of the gains in order to form a shooting star. Nonetheless, the market seems to be stuck between the 1.35 level as support, and the 1.37 level as resistance. The resistance above should extend all the way from 1.37 to the 1.3750 level. Ultimately though, if we can break out of that range, we should continue to make a longer-term move. If it’s to the upside, we go to the 1.40 level, but to the downside below the 1.35 level, we would head to the 1.33 region.