Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 03 - December 10

The US dollar managed to recover in the week after Thanksgiving on positive data, upbeat Fed statements, imminent tax cuts, and despite a major development in Trump’s troubles. The Non-Farm Payrolls is the key event and we also have rate decisions from Australia and Canada Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. This is the last decision of the year and the RBA does not meet in January. They are not expected to make any change now.
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 15:00. The figure for November is projected to be slightly lower: 59.2 points.
3. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. We may get a slower growth rate for Q3: 0.7% according to the projections.
4. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. A more moderate gain of 191K jobs is estimated.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. Markets still expect the BOC to hike in 2018, but nothing is certain.
6. Mario Draghi talks Thursday, 16:00. The President of the ECB will hold a press conference in front of the Bank of International Settlements. This comes one week before the central bank makes its decision and also publishes new forecasts. Draghi may react to the upbeat growth figures, but also to the latest disappointment in inflation developments. He usually moves the euro.
7. Japanese GDP: Thursday, 23:50. An upgrade to 0.4% q/q is on the cards.
8. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. This is the last NFP before the Fed decision in December, in which Yellen is expected to complete 3 hikes in 2017. Only a terrible report would derail the hike.
9. US consumer confidence: Friday, 15:00. All in all, consumers are quite confident, also according to other surveys such as the CB one.

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EUR/USD struggled to continue advancing as the dollar found its footing. The upcoming week features a constant stream of data including PMIs, industrial output and more. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Eurogroup Meetings: Monday. Progress in Greece’s program, political uncertainty in Germany, Italy, and still in Spain, and Brexit are all on the agenda.
2. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 8:00. A rise of 56.8K in unemployment was quite disappointing in October, despite the seasonal effect.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
4. PPI: Monday, 10:00. A more modest rise is likely now.
5. Services PMIs: Tuesday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figures at 8:50, final German figures at 8:55 and the final euro-zone numbers at 9:00.
6. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 10:00. In September, the volume of sales increased by 0.7%, a recovery after two months of drops.
7. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 10:00. A confirmation of the figure is expected now.
8. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 7:00. We may see a slide for the month of October.
9. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10. The number for October could be slightly higher.
10. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 7:00.
11. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:45.
12. German Trade Balance: Friday, 7:00. The high surplus keeps the euro bid.
13. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.

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