Weekly Outlook: 2017, August 06 - August 13

The US dollar remained on the back foot throughout most of the week, with the jobs report allowing for a comeback. Is this a temporary correction or the start of a dollar rally? The upcoming week features US inflation figures, the JOLTs data, a rate decision in New Zealand and more.

1. Neel Kashkari talks: Monday 15:25 and also Friday at 15:30. The President of the Minnesota Fed is an outspoken dove that dissented from the previous rate hikes.
2. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. A small gain is on the cards now. A similar level of 566K is expected now
3. Chinese inflation figures: Wednesday, 2:00. The recent rises imply higher inflation in other countries, especially in the US.
4. US Unit Labor Costs: Wednesday, 12:30.
5. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00.
7. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Small gains are expected now as well1% on the headline and 0.2% on the core.
8. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A small rise f240K to 244K is estimated.
9. Bill Dudley talks: Thursday, 14:00. The President of the New York Fed is considered No.3 at the powerful institution. He is relatively close to the views of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and his response to the jobs report, including wages, will be of importance.
10. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. For the month of July, both measures are expected to rise by 0.2%.
11. Robert Kaplan talks: The President of the Dallas Fed has previously expressed worries about inflation. In his public appearance, he will have the chance to respond the latest inflation report and perhaps provide hints about the next moves by the Fed.

the source

GBP/USD made another move tot he upside but was forced to retreat on the BOE’s bearishness. Will it remain the loser? The upcoming week features a mix of figures from all sectors.

1. Halifax HPI: Monday, 7:30. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards.
2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01.
3. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors monitors the balance between areas enjoying price increases with those showing decreases. After long months in positive double digits, the most recent report for June showed a sharp drop to 7%. A small increase to 9% is predicted.
4. Manufacturing Production: Thursday, 8:30.
5. Goods Trade Balance: Thursday, 8:30. Britain has a wide trade deficit that is weighing on the pound. This deficit stood at 11.9 billion pounds in May and may squeeze now. A narrower deficit of 11 billion is estimated.
6. Construction Output: Thursday, 8:30.
7. NIESR GDP Estimate: Thursday, 12:00. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is a highly regarded Think-Tank. Most recently, they published upbeat assessments about the economy. looking to the second half of 2017. However, month over month, they have shown slow growth for the three months ending in June, 0.3%, in line with official numbers that were published later on.

the source

The Australian dollar struggled with the highs but did not give up on these levels, despite RBA pressure. Where next? The upcoming week features speeches from central bankers as well as important surveys.

1. AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 23:30. This 200-strong survey by the Australian Industry Group has been on the high ground in the past two months, above 56, reflecting robust growth in the sector.
2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30.
3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30.
4. Chinese trade balance: Tuesday, 2:00. China is Australia’s No. 1 trade partner. A rise in China’s imports implies an increase in Australian exports. China enjoys a significant surplus. In Chinese yuan terms, the surplus is expected to slip from 294K to 292K. In US dollars, the surplus is predicted to widen from 42.8 billion to 45.3 billion.
5. Christopher Kent talks: Tuesday, 22:35. Kent is the RBA Assistant Governor and he speaks in Sydney.
6. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30.
7. Home Loans: Wednesday, 1:30.
8. Chinese inflation data: Wednesday, 1:30. Rises in Chinese prices imply growth, thus moving the Australian dollar. Producer prices were up 5.5% y/y in June are now expected to accelerate to 5.6%. Consumer prices are predicted to remain unchanged at 1.5%. Australian commodity prices are also reflected in producer prices.
9. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00.
10. Philip Lowe talks: Thursday, 23:30. The Governor of the RBA makes an official testimony in Melbourne.

the source

Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, August 06 - August 13

Dollar/CAD moved up, correction previous losses as oil prices cooled down. The upcoming week features housing figures from Canada.

1. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. The Canadian housing sector has been rocked by reports of house price falls in Toronto. A small slide to 206K is on the cards now.
2. Building Permits: Wednesday, 12:30. A drop of 1.8% is forecast now.
3. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The third housing indicator of the week relates to prices of new homes. A slightly more modest rise of 0.5% is projected.

the source