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Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23

This is a discussion on Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23 within the Forex Trading forums, part of the Trading Forum category; The US dollar was on the back foot on political and mostly monetary issues. Is this just a setback or ...

          
   
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    Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23

    The US dollar was on the back foot on political and mostly monetary issues. Is this just a setback or can we expect further falls? The upcoming week features a mix of events from all over the world.

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23-dxy-h12-fx-choice-limited.png


    1. Chinese GDP: Monday, 2:00. China is the world’s No. 2 economy. and demand from the economic giant has a huge impact on the rest of the world. Note that China also releases industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales at the same time. Nevertheless, GDP has the upper hand.
    2. UK inflation report: Tuesday, 8:30. The Bank of England has a lively debate about whether to raise rates or not. Headline CPI increased by 2.9% y/y and is expected to be seen again.
    3. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are expected to rise to 1.20 million and housing starts to 1.16 million.
    4. Crude Oil inventories: Wednesday 14:30.
    5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. A more modest gain of 15.3K is projected and the unemployment rate is predicted to tick up to 5.6%.
    6. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, during the Asian session, press conference at 6:30. While no change is expected in the policy driven by Kuroda, the updated assessment about the economy and especially inflation (remains very low), will be of interest.
    7. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
    8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. A slide to 23.8 is expected now. While the sector is small, it is still significant. Jobless claims are released at the same time but remain quite stable.


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    Last edited by 1Finance; 07-15-2017 at 06:42 AM.
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    Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23

    EUR/USD took another step forward, but could not hold onto the highs. What’s next? The big event on the agenda is undoubtedly the ECB meeting. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23-eurusd-h2-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    1. Final CPI: Tuesday, 9:00. According to the initial figures, the consumer price index rose by 1.3% y/y in June and core CPI advanced by 1.1%. Both figures were better than expected and both will likely be confirmed in the final read, even though Spain’s CPI was upgraded in its final read.
    2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The all-European figure printed 37.7 points.
    3. German PPI: Thursday, 6:00.
    4. Current Account: Thursday, 8:00. The figure stood at 22.2 billion in April and the number for April is due now.
    5. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. There, Draghi talked about a shift from deflation to reflation and mentioned a gradual removal of the stimulus. This time, no new forecasts are on the cards but reporters and markets would like to know if the ECB will announce the beginning of the end of its bond-buying scheme, currently set to expire by year-end. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
    6. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00.


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    Last edited by 1Finance; 07-15-2017 at 06:46 AM.
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    Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23

    Dollar/yen attempted to move above the cycle high but was rejected. On its way down, it lost the uptrend line of support. The drivers were both political and monetary.

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23-usdjpy-h8-metaquotes-software-corp.png


    • The upcoming week features housing data from the US: building permits and housing starts. Also, watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Echoes from Yellen’s testimony and the inflation report will likely reverberate.
    • In Japan, we have a rate decision by the BOJ. Kuroda and co. are unlikely to change their current policy of holding long-term 10-year yields to 0%. The assessment of the economy and mostly inflation will set the tone. The previous BOJ meeting did not yield volatility, but you never know.

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    Last edited by 1Finance; 07-15-2017 at 06:47 AM.
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