Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02

The US dollar enjoyed some strength thanks to the Fed’s hawkish hike, but this did not last too long. What’s next? The Fed can continue influencing currencies thanks to speeches from top Fed officials, including Yellen. In addition, we have many other central bankers speaking and also some GDP figures.

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. A rise of 0.4% is on the cards for core orders.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 17:30 and Tuesday at 8:00. The president of the ECB participates in an event in Sintra, Portugal.
3. Mark Carney talks: Tuesday, 10:00. The Governor of the BOE will present the Financial Stability Report and will speak at a press conference.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A small drop to 116.1 is on the cards.
5. Patrick Harker talks Tuesday, 15:15. The President of the Philadelphia Fed will speak in London. In his previous public appearance, Harker surprised by expressing some worries about inflation.
6. Janet Yellen talks: Tuesday, 17:00. The Chair of the Federal Reserve expressed lots of optimism about growth and employment while dismissing inflation on one-off events.
7. Central bankers panel: Wednesday, 13:30. Four governors will participate in a panel at Sintra: the ECB’s Mario Draghi, the BOE’s Mark Carney, the BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda and the BOC’s Stephen Poloz all talk at one event.
8. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards.
9. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
10. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A confirmation of the 1.2% growth rate is expected.
11. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. We now get the final read which is projected to confirm the 0.2% read.
12. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. THeadline inflation carries expectations for a slide to 1.3% while core inflation is forecast to advance to 1%.
13. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. Month over month, a rise of 0.1% is predicted.
14. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30.

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EUR/USD was under pressure as the dollar enjoyed some gains. Has the pair turned down? The last week of June features an important German survey and key inflation data.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00.
2. French CPI: Tuesday, 6:45.
3. French Consumer Spending: Wednesday, 6:45.
4. Monetary data: Wednesday, 8:00.
5. Italian CPI: Wednesday, 9:00.
6. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00.
7. Spanish CPI: Thursday, 7:00.
8. German CPI: Thursday: German states release the data throughout the morning, and the all-German number is at 12:00.
9. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55. Germany enjoys a growing economy and falling unemployment. The number of the unemployed fell by 9K in April. The data for May is expected to show a similar drop.
10. CPI: Friday, 9:00. Headline inflation stood at 1.4%.

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Dollar/yen dipped had a strong start to the week but petered out later on. The pair has been sliding as enthusiasm from the Fed’s hawkishness was replaced by skepticism.

• The upcoming week begins with a strong start from durable goods orders, continues with the CB consumer confidence and culminates with the final read of US GDP. It is also important to watch out for the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.
• In general, $/yen hardly moves on Japanese events. Japan’s trade surplus came out slightly lower than expected.
• The upcoming week features Japanese inflation figures on Thursday at 23:50. Watch out for the more up-to-date Tokyo CPI. The unemployment rate in Japan dropped to a low of 2.8%.

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